Hurricane Central 2013

[Trevor]

A little early, I know. Just figured I would go ahead and make the topic with information about names, predictions, etc.

2013 Hurricane Names (recycled from 2007)
Atlantic: Andrea, Barry, Chantal, Dorian (replaces Dean), Erin, Fernand (replaces Felix), Gabrielle, Humberto, Ingrid, Jerry, Karen, Lorenzo, Melissa, Nestor (replaces Noel), Olga, Pablo, Rebekah, Sebastien, Tanya, Van, Wendy

Pacific: Alvin, Barbara, Cosme, Dalila, Erick, Flossie, Gil, Henriette, Ivo, Juliette, Kiko, Lorena, Manuel, Narda, Octave, Priscilla, Raymond, Sonia, Tico, Velm, Wallis, Xina, York, Zelda

2013 Hurricane Season Predictions

Overall Prediction: Above Average

[Lightning]

2013 Hurricane Names (recycled from 2007)
Atlantic: Andrea, Barry, Chantal, Dorian (replaces Dean), Erin, Fernand (replaces Felix), Gabrielle, Humberto, Ingrid, Jerry, Karen, Lorenzo, Melissa, Nestor (replaces Noel), Olga, Pablo, Rebekah, Sebastien, Tanya, Van, Wendy

I remember all the original names on this list before they were retired. Not only this list, but the other 5 lists that they rotate, as well. Andrea replaced Allison in 2007 from 2001, which replaced Alecia in 1989, from 1983. Humberto replaced Hugo in 1995, from 1989. Lorenzo and Melissa replaced Luis and Marilyn in 2001, from 1995. Olga replaced Opal also in 2001, from 1995.

[phw115wvwx]

I see a few of you couldn't wait to start this hurricane season.   Well, if anything happens in the tropics, you all know what to do.

[gt1racerlHDl]

i know this was almost a month ago but here's what they forecasted this far back.

The Weather Channel's Official 2013 Hurricane Season Forecast

[phw115wvwx]

That segment was rather broad-brushed.  They left out the most important ingredient of all in determining tropical activity, which is wind shear.  Furthermore, El Niño and La Niña do way more than just change the winds aloft in the tropics.  They change the entire jet stream patterns, the positions of troughs and ridges aloft, and can even affect the warm and cold ocean currents throughout the world.  However, there is way more to the story than just those simple factors presented in that segment to determine tropical activity, which is why I do not support trying to predict how an overall season will go months before it even happens.

[gt1racerlHDl]

That segment was rather broad-brushed.  They left out the most important ingredient of all in determining tropical activity, which is wind shear.  Furthermore, El Niño and La Niña do way more than just change the winds aloft in the tropics.  They change the entire jet stream patterns, the positions of troughs and ridges aloft, and can even affect the warm and cold ocean currents throughout the world.  However, there is way more to the story than just those simple factors presented in that segment to determine tropical activity, which is why I do not support trying to predict how an overall season will go months before it even happens.

I totally agree patrick, hopefully sometime in the coming weeks when newer forecasts come out they will present those important factors compared to the video, but i guess we'll wait and see before the season starts if they do indeed expand the forecast even more.

[toxictwister00]

CSU's forecast seems a bit overly ambitious if you ask me. If I made a forecast, it would be closer to TWC's forecast. I'm thinking 14 or 15 named storms this year right now.

[Localonthe8s]

if anything perhaps another disappointing season (minus Sandy and maybe Isaac)

[WeatherWitness]

Well, the Pacific sure didn't waste any time.  The Pacific Hurricane Season starts today, May 15, and we already have our first tropical depression.  It looks to pose no threat to land, though.

[Lightning]

They predict an above average season every year.  I think TWC wants an above average season, so they can overhype them.

[Eric]

They predict an above average season every year.  I think TWC wants an above average season, so they can overhype them.

...and then show longform about prior hurricanes on the day a major hurricane makes landfall, while "supposedly" airing live programming about the actual hurricane to "affected areas only."

[toxictwister00]

Way out in voodoo land, but not out of the question something sloppy might spin up in the GOM by then.

[Mr. Rainman]

The NOAA Climate Prediction Center has released its preliminary tropical forecast for the 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season - and if it is right, we'll have a very busy 6 months on our hand.

Named Storms: 13-20
Hurricanes: 7-11
Major Hurricanes: 3-6

[Lightning]

The NOAA Climate Prediction Center has released its preliminary tropical forecast for the 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season - and if it is right, we'll have a very busy 6 months on our hand.

Named Storms: 13-20
Hurricanes: 7-11
Major Hurricanes: 3-6

I surely hope not. They always predict and busy season like this, every single year! Maybe their predictions will be wrong, after all weather is not an exact science.

[Eric]

Holy moly.  So far, I've been lucky living in central Florida for the past two years - we've only gotten skirted by a couple of storms, and nothing even remotely extreme.  I hope my luck holds out for this year, too!