TWC Today Forums
Weather Discussion => Hazardous Weather => Hurricane Central => Topic started by: Trevor on May 03, 2013, 10:38:48 PM
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A little early, I know. Just figured I would go ahead and make the topic with information about names, predictions, etc.
2013 Hurricane Names (recycled from 2007)
Atlantic: Andrea, Barry, Chantal, Dorian (replaces Dean), Erin, Fernand (replaces Felix), Gabrielle, Humberto, Ingrid, Jerry, Karen, Lorenzo, Melissa, Nestor (replaces Noel), Olga, Pablo, Rebekah, Sebastien, Tanya, Van, Wendy
Pacific: Alvin, Barbara, Cosme, Dalila, Erick, Flossie, Gil, Henriette, Ivo, Juliette, Kiko, Lorena, Manuel, Narda, Octave, Priscilla, Raymond, Sonia, Tico, Velm, Wallis, Xina, York, Zelda
2013 Hurricane Season Predictions
(http://i.imwx.com/common/articles/images/hurricane-season-forecast_320x180.jpg)
Overall Prediction: Above Average
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2013 Hurricane Names (recycled from 2007)
Atlantic: Andrea, Barry, Chantal, Dorian (replaces Dean), Erin, Fernand (replaces Felix), Gabrielle, Humberto, Ingrid, Jerry, Karen, Lorenzo, Melissa, Nestor (replaces Noel), Olga, Pablo, Rebekah, Sebastien, Tanya, Van, Wendy
I remember all the original names on this list before they were retired. Not only this list, but the other 5 lists that they rotate, as well. Andrea replaced Allison in 2007 from 2001, which replaced Alecia in 1989, from 1983. Humberto replaced Hugo in 1995, from 1989. Lorenzo and Melissa replaced Luis and Marilyn in 2001, from 1995. Olga replaced Opal also in 2001, from 1995.
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I see a few of you couldn't wait to start this hurricane season. :P Well, if anything happens in the tropics, you all know what to do. B)
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i know this was almost a month ago but here's what they forecasted this far back.
The Weather Channel's Official 2013 Hurricane Season Forecast (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zJyvA134AgE#ws)
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That segment was rather broad-brushed. They left out the most important ingredient of all in determining tropical activity, which is wind shear. Furthermore, El Niņo and La Niņa do way more than just change the winds aloft in the tropics. They change the entire jet stream patterns, the positions of troughs and ridges aloft, and can even affect the warm and cold ocean currents throughout the world. However, there is way more to the story than just those simple factors presented in that segment to determine tropical activity, which is why I do not support trying to predict how an overall season will go months before it even happens.
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That segment was rather broad-brushed. They left out the most important ingredient of all in determining tropical activity, which is wind shear. Furthermore, El Niņo and La Niņa do way more than just change the winds aloft in the tropics. They change the entire jet stream patterns, the positions of troughs and ridges aloft, and can even affect the warm and cold ocean currents throughout the world. However, there is way more to the story than just those simple factors presented in that segment to determine tropical activity, which is why I do not support trying to predict how an overall season will go months before it even happens.
I totally agree patrick, hopefully sometime in the coming weeks when newer forecasts come out they will present those important factors compared to the video, but i guess we'll wait and see before the season starts if they do indeed expand the forecast even more.
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CSU's forecast seems a bit overly ambitious if you ask me. If I made a forecast, it would be closer to TWC's forecast. I'm thinking 14 or 15 named storms this year right now.
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if anything perhaps another disappointing season (minus Sandy and maybe Isaac)
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Well, the Pacific sure didn't waste any time. The Pacific Hurricane Season starts today, May 15, and we already have our first tropical depression. It looks to pose no threat to land, though.
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They predict an above average season every year. <_< I think TWC wants an above average season, so they can overhype them. :angry:
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They predict an above average season every year. <_< I think TWC wants an above average season, so they can overhype them. :angry:
...and then show longform about prior hurricanes on the day a major hurricane makes landfall, while "supposedly" airing live programming about the actual hurricane to "affected areas only." :censored:
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Way out in voodoo land, but not out of the question something sloppy might spin up in the GOM by then.
(http://i.imgur.com/O19giEe.gif)
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The NOAA Climate Prediction Center has released its preliminary tropical forecast for the 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season - and if it is right, we'll have a very busy 6 months on our hand.
Named Storms: 13-20
Hurricanes: 7-11
Major Hurricanes: 3-6
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The NOAA Climate Prediction Center has released its preliminary tropical forecast for the 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season - and if it is right, we'll have a very busy 6 months on our hand.
Named Storms: 13-20
Hurricanes: 7-11
Major Hurricanes: 3-6
I surely hope not. They always predict and busy season like this, every single year! :thumbdown: Maybe their predictions will be wrong, after all weather is not an exact science. :yes:
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Holy moly. So far, I've been lucky living in central Florida for the past two years - we've only gotten skirted by a couple of storms, and nothing even remotely extreme. I hope my luck holds out for this year, too!
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I hope it's not true either. I don't wanna see another sandy like storm again
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I hope it's not true either. I don't wanna see another sandy like storm again
I don't want to see another storm of ANY name, regardless of what the name is, not one the strikes somewhere and impacts wherever it hits enough for it's name to be retired.
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The first 10 days of June I still believe Andrea will make an appearance. :yes:
18z GFS - Thursday, June 6, 2013 Hour 288 (Landfall is in Southern Florida around hour 312 this run)
(http://i.imgur.com/T5C23cR.png)
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Too close for comfort. :no:
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But the GFS is always aggressive at wanting to develop a tropical system and it's not always right. It hasn't even formed, yet. Don't worry about something that doesn't even exist, yet! It's a long ways out and may not even develop at all! The GFS has a reputation for being aggressive (too aggressive at times) when it come to tropical systems.
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But the GFS is always aggressive at wanting to develop a tropical system and it's not always right. It hasn't even formed, yet. Don't worry about something that doesn't even exist, yet! It's a long ways out and may not even develop at all! The GFS has a reputation for being aggressive (too aggressive at times) when it come to tropical systems.
Not always. I recall correctly the GFS showing Hurricane Irene tracking up the east coast as far back as August 2nd, weeks before it formed. If the signal is there and it shows up on almost every run (which this new threat has been), I think it's possible. If the ECMWF is also on board with the system then it's likely.
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I only saw the 12z GFS today, but it brought in the tropical system I mentioned yesterday two days earlier (around day 11/June 4th if I'm not mistaken) and slightly further SE than the 18z run on Friday. It spins a little more time down near Cuba on the 12z run today than it did that 18z run yesterday, in fact the center doesn't even make landfall on S. FL on the 12z run today. I'm feeling more and more confident "something" will come up in early June whether it's in the GOM or off the SE coast. Like Craig mentioned above me, if the ECMWF and/or any other global models start jumping on board on something around this timeframe I'll feel the possibility will be more likely.
EDIT: Eric, I wouldn't panic about potential "Andrea" right now, even on the GFS it would be fairly harmless to South Florida outside of some good heavy rains at the worst.
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Hurricane Barbara made landfall 20 miles west of Talano, Mexico. Concerning East Pacific tropical records, this is the easternmost landfall location for an Eastern North Pacific tropical cyclone ever recorded, as well as the second-earliest landfall to date. Peak winds were 75 mph.
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Too close for comfort. :no:
For now, don't put much stock in that. It can change very quickly.
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So... running out to buy a kitchenful of canned goods and bottled watter before everything disappeared from the store shelves was a bad idea? :smoke2:
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So... running out to buy a kitchenful of canned goods and bottled watter before everything disappeared from the store shelves was a bad idea? :smoke2:
No, but panicking and being all doom and gloom thinking it will definitely affect you directly when it's too early to tell and going by one model, which hasn't been right too often lately was not necessary. It was not a bad idea, better safe than sorry, but it may just be remnants of Barbara in the eastern Pacific and not even become Andrea, and even if it does, it's not like you have a hurricane, let alone a major hurricane bearing down on you.
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So... running out to buy a kitchenful of canned goods and bottled watter before everything disappeared from the store shelves was a bad idea? :smoke2:
No, but panicking and being all doom and gloom thinking it will definitely affect you directly when it's too early to tell and going by one model, which hasn't been right too often lately was not necessary. It was not a bad idea, better safe than sorry, but it may just be remnants of Barbara in the eastern Pacific and not even become Andrea, and even if it does, it's not like you have a hurricane, let alone a major hurricane bearing down on you.
Tropical Storms can be be just as dangerous and deadly as any major hurricane. Allison (2001) and Fay (2008) are the best examples, especially the latter for Florida.
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Also Irene caused mass panic Among those in the northeast and brought torrential downpours and flooding for days. While no Sandy, it was worse enough to be retired
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So... running out to buy a kitchenful of canned goods and bottled watter before everything disappeared from the store shelves was a bad idea? :smoke2:
No, but panicking and being all doom and gloom thinking it will definitely affect you directly when it's too early to tell and going by one model, which hasn't been right too often lately was not necessary. It was not a bad idea, better safe than sorry, but it may just be remnants of Barbara in the eastern Pacific and not even become Andrea, and even if it does, it's not like you have a hurricane, let alone a major hurricane bearing down on you.
Tropical Storms can be be just as dangerous and deadly as any major hurricane. Allison (2001) and Fay (2008) are the best examples, especially the latter for Florida.
You're right, there is the flooding aspect of the storm. However, sometimes these kind of storms bring needed rain to dry/drought-stricken areas. At this time, we are talking about the remnants of Barbara, were not talking about Andrea, yet, and these storms only bring bad floods if they move very slowly, like the ones you're talking about, Allison in 2001 and Faye in 2008. Things things are still unpredictable and have a mind of their own, despite all the technology we have now. As for Irene, it also moved very slowly which produced heavy rains that caused flooding in the northeast. I'm not saying you should ignore the possibility and be unprepared for it, I'm just saying don't be all doom and gloom about it, either.
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Today is officially the start of Hurricane Season and we have our first CODE YELLOW area to start the season off.
(http://i.imgur.com/rSJcdxC.gif)
1. DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR
DUE TO UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AND PROXIMITY TO LAND. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
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Today is officially the start of Hurricane Season and we have our first CODE YELLOW area to start the season off.
([url]http://i.imgur.com/rSJcdxC.gif[/url])
1. DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR
DUE TO UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AND PROXIMITY TO LAND. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
Well, you heard it from National Hurricane Center itself. It has a 10% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone the next 48 hours. Now, that might change. But for now, that also means a 90% chance of not forming into a tropical cyclone.
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I wouldn't trust the global models with their predictions of whether a tropical storm will form or not. The models were designed with mid-latitude weather phenomenon in mind, so they don't perform well in the tropics where there's little data even though satellites have helped with this problem. You just have to wait and see at this time, but I don't like the current environment this disturbance is encountering as mentioned by NHC.
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I give it a 40% chance of becoming a sloppy, disorganized, messy Andrea at some point over the next several days.
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The Atlantic hurricane season predictions are out now. TWC is going for 16 tropical storms, with 9 becoming hurricanes and 5 becoming major hurricanes. Some sound advice came with this prediction, though: the number of hurricanes is not as significant as the number of landfalling hurricanes. Additionally, it seems like they predict an above normal hurricane season every year.
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Invest 90L has been deactivated, Invest 91L has a 20 chance of development over the next 48 hours.
(http://i.imgur.com/Ybpmqk2.gif)
1. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHWESTERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA TO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA
OF CLOUDINESS AND DISORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR DUE TO MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT DRIFTS GENERALLY NORTHWARD.
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The Atlantic hurricane season predictions are out now. TWC is going for 16 tropical storms, with 9 becoming hurricanes and 5 becoming major hurricanes. Some sound advice came with this prediction, though: the number of hurricanes is not as significant as the number of landfalling hurricanes. Additionally, it seems like they predict an above normal hurricane season every year.
They make a very good point when they say that numbers don't matter. It's if any hit the U.S. coast that matters. You can have a very active season and still see no storms making landfall on the U.S. coast, like in 2010, and you can have a below average season, like 1992, and still have only one storm - which is all it takes - to make landfall in the U.S. and be (at that time) the most costly hurricane is U.S. history (Andrew). Also, you are right, they do predict an active season every year. They haven't always been right, though.
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Upgraded to CODE ORANGE.
(http://i.imgur.com/EsE8OyD.gif)
1. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT THE
CIRCULATION OF THE LOW HAS BECOME SLIGHTLY BETTER DEFINED TODAY.
ADDITIONAL GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS DESPITE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL OR
SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT DRIFTS GENERALLY
NORTHWARD. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE
LIKELY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LOW OVER PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA...AS WELL AS THE FLORIDA KEYS
AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
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Up to 40% this afternoon
(http://i.imgur.com/5Bs9QMK.gif)
1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO REMAIN DISORGANIZED AND
LOCATED WELL EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS COULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO..BEFORE THE LOW INTERACTS WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE..40 PERCENT..OF
BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD OR NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA..CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA...AS WELL
AS THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.
Below is my first preliminary storm track map along w/ an approx. landfall point and possible max wind speeds.
(http://i.imgur.com/Ydq6h1E.png)
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Up to 40% this afternoon
([url]http://i.imgur.com/5Bs9QMK.gif[/url])
1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO REMAIN DISORGANIZED AND
LOCATED WELL EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS COULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO..BEFORE THE LOW INTERACTS WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE..40 PERCENT..OF
BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD OR NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA..CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA...AS WELL
AS THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.
Below is my first preliminary storm track map along w/ an approx. landfall point and possible max wind speeds.
([url]http://i.imgur.com/Ydq6h1E.png[/url])
You seem happy that the chance of it becoming Andrea is getting better. I'm not. We are leaving for SW Florida on Thursday and I don't want us to be driving in it. :thumbdown:
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I'm happy whether it's Andrea, TD #1 or it stays Invest 91L. I just hope we can get some rain from it over here.
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00Z intensity guidance is pretty telling. I don't see an Andrea in the cards, but a lot of rain is on the way.
(http://www.ral.ucar.edu/hurricanes/realtime/plots/northatlantic/2013/al912013/intensity_early/aal91_2013060500_intensity_early.png)
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Up to 50% this morning, visually on satellite it looks a lot better organized with that appears to be more convection showing up around the center, but we all know how deceiving that can be...*cough* *cough* Irene, Ernesto, (frustrated sigh) Issac... <_<
(http://i.imgur.com/xPyS9pZ.gif)
1. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO IS
PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS AND STRONG
GUSTY WINDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. ALTHOUGH THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW HAS INCREASED
OVERNIGHT...THE CIRCULATION REMAINS POORLY-DEFINED. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS COULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR STORM
COULD FORM BEFORE THE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEASTWARD OVER NORTHERN
FLORIDA LATE THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS DISTURBANCE THIS
AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
WESTERN CUBA...THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA DURING
THE COUPLE OF DAYS. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...AND IN PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE OR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
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Last night was the first time I had seen TWC put out what amounts to an advisory for an invest. Not a tropical depression or even a tropical wave, but an invest. Straw-grasping much? The OCM did say that this system will heavy rain and rough seas where it hits regardless of whether or not it becomes a TD.
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CODE RED - 60% Chance of development
RECON Flight still scheduled for this afternoon
* My guess is they will find something to suggest TD status. :yes: (That's just my opinion though)
(http://i.imgur.com/LOjlzg4.gif)
1. A BROAD AND ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A LARGE AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS AND WINDS
TO NEAR GALE FORCE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. SATELLITE
AND SURFACE DATA SUGGEST THAT THE CIRCULATION REMAINS POORLY
DEFINED...HOWEVER AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE DISTURBANCE THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR STORM BEFORE IT MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN
FLORIDA LATE THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
THIS SYSTEM HAS ALREADY PRODUCED TORRENTIAL RAINS AND FLOODING
OVER THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA AND WESTERN CUBA. REGARDLESS
OF DEVELOPMENT...ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA DURING
THE COUPLE OF DAYS. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM AND ITS EFFECTS CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH
SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...AND IN
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE OR
NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
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Whether this system develops into anything or not, there's going to be some significant problems. Flood watches are up for most of the Florida peninsula, and I wouldn't be surprised to see some severe weather as well.
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Whether this system develops into anything or not, there's going to be some significant problems. Flood watches are up for most of the Florida peninsula, and I wouldn't be surprised to see some severe weather as well.
Oh no!!! :angry: :no: We are going to be driving in it. This makes me so mad! :furious:
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It's already pouring in Daytona Beach... just in time for my bike ride home from work! :cry3:
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HWO for my location:
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
425 AM EDT WED JUN 5 2013
CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179-061000-
NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-
NORTHERN NEW LONDON-SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-
SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-WESTERN PASSAIC-
EASTERN PASSAIC-HUDSON-WESTERN BERGEN-EASTERN BERGEN-WESTERN ESSEX-
EASTERN ESSEX-WESTERN UNION-EASTERN UNION-ORANGE-PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-
NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-
RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-
NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-
NORTHERN QUEENS-NORTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHERN QUEENS-SOUTHERN NASSAU-
425 AM EDT WED JUN 5 2013
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN
CONNECTICUT...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST NEW YORK.
.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD PASS OVER OR
CLOSE TO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. EXTENSIVE TROPICAL
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW COULD RESULT IN HEAVY RAINFALL
LEADING TO FLOODING. THE POTENTIAL DOES EXIST FOR SEVERAL INCHES
OF RAINFALL.
SEE THE LATEST AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION ISSUED BY NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS
UPCOMING WEATHER EVENT.
GGEM:
(http://img5.imageshack.us/img5/1200/f66.gif)
NAM (outlier too far west):
(http://img824.imageshack.us/img824/7052/f72.gif)
ECMWF (IMO best solution, bullseye for us):
(http://img22.imageshack.us/img22/6492/ecmwfwashout.jpg)
Probably looking at 2-5" of rain here.
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RECON has been finding TS force winds in Invest 91L around the COC, pressure has dropped to around 1004-1005mb.
Now we just wait and see if we get TD #1 or Andrea, I'm fairly confident one or the other will occur (more so on the latter than the former). :yes:
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Boom!
BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_al912013_al012013.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201306052121
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
AL, 01, 2013060518, , BEST, 0, 253N, 866W, 35, 1006, TS, 34, NEQ, 50, 120, 0, 0, 1010, 250, 120, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, ANDREA, M,
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT WED JUN 5 2013
SPECIAL OUTLOOK ISSUED TO UPDATE DISCUSSION ON THE LOW PRESSURE AREA
IN THE GULF OF MEXICO
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS ABLE TO IDENTIFY A
WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION IN THE LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE EAST-
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. BASED ON THIS
FINDING...THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER WILL INITIATE ADVISORIES ON
TROPICAL STORM ANDREA WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
HIGH CHANCE...NEAR 100 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
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Invest 92L - not much to write home about (yet)
Little Tidbit here: This tropical wave originated from the coast of Africa as a Cape Verde Wave! Highly unusual to see tropical waves developing from the Cape Verde this early in the season. :o
(http://i.imgur.com/QSy8uCK.gif)
1. A SMALL LOW PRESSURE AREA PRODUCING WINDS TO NEAR TROPICAL STORM
FORCE IS LOCATED ABOUT 775 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.
ALTHOUGH THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS
BECOME A LITTLE MORE ORGANIZED TODAY...STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO LIMIT ANY ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AS THIS DISTURBANCE
MOVES WESTWARD AROUND 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.
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Invest 92L - not much to write home about (yet)
Looks like the NHC has downgraded the Invest to 0% but i won't be surprised if it picks up steam sometime this weekend.
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Invest 92L - not much to write home about (yet)
Looks like the NHC has downgraded the Invest to 0% but i won't be surprised if it picks up steam sometime this weekend.
I would give it another week before it can do much of anything. Wind Shear is strong out ahead of it, I don't think it will relax enough this weekend to help it out. If it gets it's act together the track is very interesting. Looking at the weather underground image below, it's not certain whether it would make for an east coaster or a GOM storm. All of this is just hypothetical of course.
(http://icons-ak.wunderground.com/data/images/at201392_model.gif)
(http://icons-ak.wunderground.com/data/images/at201392_ensmodel.gif)
Hurricane Fran (1996) and Hurricane Frances (2004) look like decent track analogs so far. (NOT strength-wise, we gotta get a storm first before speculating on that)
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Invest 93L - Code Orange
(http://i.imgur.com/JAgoT5v.gif)
1. DISTURBED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR THE COASTS OF
NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY. ALTHOUGH
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA LATER TODAY
AND TONIGHT...SOME DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE IF THE DISTURBANCE
EMERGES INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IN A DAY OR SO. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...
HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AMERICA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
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It's been waffling the past couple of days on the GFS, but from June 29th to July 4th (Independence Day) looks like another time period to watch for tropical development. (Caribbean/Gulf of Mexico)
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GFS wants to bring a strong tropical storm/hurricane from the GOM up the east coast just in time for the 4th of July. This time I'm not buying yet. Euro not even hinting a tropical development in that time frame.
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Ironically it's developing it in the same general area Barry developed. I think for the first time in years, the Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean is where a lot of our storms will end up firing up this year.
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So far, we have had two tropical storms in the Atlantic, while the Eastern Pacific has had three named storms with two of them being hurricanes. Those are respectable activity results for June.
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20% chance of development
1. A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND MOVE INLAND ALONG THE TEXAS COAST BY
SUNDAY. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW
TO OCCUR DUE TO PROXIMITY TO LAND AND ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...THIS DISTURBANCE WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF UPPER TEXAS AND
SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO
SUNDAY.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo/gtwo_atl_sub.shtml?area1#contents (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo/gtwo_atl_sub.shtml?area1#contents)
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The Eastern Pacific is very active now, and Mexico has been dodging bullets lately with Dalila and Erick.
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This tropical disturbance is a little more interesting...
2. CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE FAR
EASTERN ATLANTIC ABOUT 800 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD BE BECOME A LITTLE MORE
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHILE THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo/gtwo_atl_sub.shtml?area2#contents (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo/gtwo_atl_sub.shtml?area2#contents)
EDIT: Here's a satellite loop, there's definitely a circulation in there.
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/loop.asp?product=1kmsrvis&storm_identifier=AL952013&starting_image=2013AL95_1KMSRVIS_201307061145.GIF (http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/loop.asp?product=1kmsrvis&storm_identifier=AL952013&starting_image=2013AL95_1KMSRVIS_201307061145.GIF)
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It is up to 30% now, and with good SSTs ahead of it and shear expected to weaken in its path, prospects are looking for this thing to develop further and possibly become a depression in the next few days. :thrilled: This is nice - July is usually a pretty dead month in terms of tropical development.
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CODE RED - 60% chance of development.
1. A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 1150 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 25 MPH. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...
AND RECENT SATELLITE WIND DATA INDICATE THAT A CLOSED SURFACE
CIRCULATION MAY BE FORMING. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE
FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE...AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION OR A TROPICAL STORM COULD FORM AT ANY TIME...WHICH WOULD
REQUIRE A TROPICAL STORM WATCH OR WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
Intensity forecast - Most models here seem to agree on a Chantal within 36-48 hrs from now, about three of them go further into hurricane intensity, but I'm very doubtful of that especially if it heads towards Hisponola.
http://derecho.math.uwm.edu/models/al952013_inten.png (http://derecho.math.uwm.edu/models/al952013_inten.png)
Current Modeled Track
(http://i.imgur.com/WbN6NI1.png)
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06z GFS hints at a potential "Dorian" by this time next week. At the very end of the run it takes the system into TX/OK. I didn't see the 18z or 00z run yesterday so I can't say whether this has been consistent, but I know the 12z run yesterday showed something similar.
(http://i.imgur.com/SfUGaaW.gif)
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Ugh.. I really hope that tropical disturbance the GFS keeps showing 384 hours out entering the Caribbean doesn't form. I'm going to be in the Keys around that time and the last thing I want any tropical disturbance to be around, even if it's remnants.
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Invest 98L - 30% Chance of Development
1. A TROPICAL WAVE ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO PRODUCE
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTHEAST OF
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE
FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO BEFORE THE WAVE MOVES
INTO A LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT LATER IN THE WEEK. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 15 TO 20 MPH. INTERESTS IN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE.
Current Model Guidance Tracks (as of 18z)
http://derecho.math.uwm.edu/models/al982013.png (http://derecho.math.uwm.edu/models/al982013.png)
Current Intensity Forecast (as of 18z)
http://derecho.math.uwm.edu/models/al982013_inten.png (http://derecho.math.uwm.edu/models/al982013_inten.png)
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The aforementioned invest now has a 40% chance of development over the next 48 hours according to NHC. However, the upper level conditions don't become quite as favorable tomorrow, so we will wait and see.
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Tropical Update with Storm Tracker Jim Cantore (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aH7WZexopNY#ws)
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60% Chance
1. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES
SOUTH OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION...AND ONLY A SMALL
INCREASE IN THE AMOUNT AND ORGANIZATION OF THE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WOULD RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO BEFORE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AND
OCEAN TEMPERATURES BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE BY THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
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Up to 70% as of 11pm update, we might have our TD by tomorrow according to the discussion for 11pm.
Personally, I don't see much coming out of this at all. :no:
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Another invest being monitored...
1. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPED BENEATH AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH ABOUT 500 MILES EAST OF BERMUDA. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES NORTHWESTWARD TO
NORTHWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo/gtwo_atl_sub.shtml?area1#contents (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo/gtwo_atl_sub.shtml?area1#contents)
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The Atlantic basin has fallen way behind the Eastern Pacific basin so far in 2013. While the Atlantic has four tropical storms to this point, the Eastern Pacific is up to eight named storms with six of them being hurricanes. Due to the persistent upper level trough over the eastern United States, increased dust and dry air from Africa, and higher wind shear from the Eastern Pacific activity, things will have to change a lot before the Atlantic becomes active again.
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The GFS has been showing a rather potent and robust Cape Verde wave near the latter end of August which is known as voodoo land on the GFS. However, it's been shown for a few runs now. The 6z run is below.
(http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/06/gfs_atlantic_384_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif)
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http://www.myfoxny.com/Story/23084472/noaa-trims-forecast-for-busy-hurricane-season (http://www.myfoxny.com/Story/23084472/noaa-trims-forecast-for-busy-hurricane-season)
So much for the big Atlantic hurricane season this year. They're already trimming the forecast back a little, with 13-19 tropical storms, 6-9 hurricanes, and 3-5 majors. Of course, the above article points out that it's the landfalls that get noticed and not necessarily the number of storms. I guess the forecasters feel like it's better to forecast a few extra storms and scale the prediction back as needed. Better safe than sorry.
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[url]http://www.myfoxny.com/Story/23084472/noaa-trims-forecast-for-busy-hurricane-season[/url] ([url]http://www.myfoxny.com/Story/23084472/noaa-trims-forecast-for-busy-hurricane-season[/url])
So much for the big Atlantic hurricane season this year. They're already trimming the forecast back a little, with 13-19 tropical storms, 6-9 hurricanes, and 3-5 majors. Of course, the above article points out that it's the landfalls that get noticed and not necessarily the number of storms. I guess the forecasters feel like it's better to forecast a few extra storms and scale the prediction back as needed. Better safe than sorry.
Bud, that's still a lot of storms. :unsure:
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Bud, that's still a lot of storms.
It certainly is, but there will have to be some activity fairly soon for the upper ends of those ranges to be reached. If the Cape Verde wave we've heard about doesn't amount to a named storm, that puts us near mid-August with only four. It looks like it will take two storms a week in September to catch up at this rate.
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Bud, that's still a lot of storms.
It certainly is, but there will have to be some activity fairly soon for the upper ends of those ranges to be reached. If the Cape Verde wave we've heard about doesn't amount to a named storm, that puts us near mid-August with only four. It looks like it will take two storms a week in September to catch up at this rate.
I believe if nothing else we'll reach the average number of 11 by the end of September/Early October.
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I don't mind how many storms there unless they take the path of Hurricanes Bill, Earl and Katia.
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Global models (GFS/CMC) hinting at homebrew G.O.M. development next weekend.
12z GFS - Makes a AL/FL Panhandle Landfall this run
(http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/12/gfs_namer_162_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif)
12z Canadian (CMC) - Makes a TX landfall this run; much more agressive than GFS on strength.
(http://oi44.tinypic.com/2s8s64z.jpg)
ECMWF on the other hand is NOT on board... :no: shows pretty much nothing during this time period.
(http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/f168.gif)
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I ran across this today which is kinda ironic since today is the 9th anniversary of Hurricane Charley striking FL. It's behind the scenes footage of Stephanie Abrams and a couple of her photographers who were with her during Charley.
TWC Behind Scenes, Hurricane Charley, Daytona Beach 2004. (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZjUsvW6l_L8#)
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The tropics in the Atlantic are getting HOT again...
Invest 92L
Chance of Development within 48 hrs - 50% (CODE ORANGE)
Chance of Development within 5 days - 60% (CODE RED)
1. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COULD BE
FORMING BETWEEN THE NORTHEASTERN TIP OF HONDURAS AND THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS WHERE THE SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BECOME CONCENTRATED DURING THE
PAST SEVERAL HOURS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AS
IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH TOWARD THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
AND SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. INTERESTS IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
AND THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
DISTURBANCE.
Invest 93L
Chance of Development within 48 hrs - 60% (CODE RED)
Chance of Development within 5 days - 60% (CODE RED)
2. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME...THE
LOW WILL BE MOVING TOWARD A LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT...WHICH
COULD LIMIT DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
INTERESTS IN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.
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Tropical depression status imminent for both Invest 92/93L...
Eastern Atlantic System
2. CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED
A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
REMAIN WELL ORGANIZED...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER
TODAY OR ON THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
AFTER THAT...THE LOW WILL BE MOVING INTO A LESS FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
REGARDLESS OF ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY
BRING SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
LATER TODAY AND THURSDAY AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
INTERESTS IN THESE ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM.
Caribbean System
1. THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. CLOUDINESS AND
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM BEFORE THE
DISTURBANCE REACHES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ON THURSDAY. AFTER
THAT...THIS WEATHER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO...WHERE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS WILL LIKELY BE A LITTLE LESS
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER OR NOT A
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMS...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE FORECAST
TO SPREAD OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND BELIZE DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO...AND INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF THIS DISTURBANCE.
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While the Eastern Atlantic system has materialized into a named storm, the invest in the Caribbean that is currently moving over the Yucatan Peninsula has run into an upper level low. Thus, the environment is becoming far more unfavorable by the moment. It may just end up being sheared apart, but the tropical moisture will be carried in pieces along the stalled front over the Southeast that could lead to flooding issues.
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On the flipside of Erin's rapid demise, Invest 92L is looking a little better. Regardless of whether or not it becomes a TD or Fernand model guidance seems to be honing in on TX/LA being the areas to be hit
(http://i.imgur.com/rv58Arm.png)
Convection is gradually beginning to develop over the LLC on the NW side. We'll have to wait and see if that continues...
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/92L/flash-rb-short.html (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/92L/flash-rb-short.html)
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For pure speculation: the 12z GFS shows two tropical systems in the Central/Eastern Atlantic by late August/early September. *time sensitive*
(http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/12/gfs_atlantic_384_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif)
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Interesting! What did you use for this...:P I want to "speculate"
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Interesting! What did you use for this...:P I want to "speculate"
That was the GFS(American) computer model that I got from here
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/ (http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/)
I hope you weren't confused by my use of the word speculate, I was talking about speculating on the possibility of two tropical systems the GFS showed developing later this month into September. It's a long way out and may not happen, but I thought it was interesting.
Also, we have yet another Invest to watch...
INVEST 94L - This wave is barely fresh off the coast of Africa! :lol:
10% Chance of Development within 48 hours
30% Chance of Development within 5 Days
1. A TROPICAL WAVE IS EMERGING OFF OF THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA
SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. SOME
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
WHILE THE DISTURBANCE MOVES WESTWARD OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
Current Track (6z)
(http://i.imgur.com/ACiJtpz.png)
Current Intensity Forecast (6z)
(http://i.imgur.com/Y0S292Y.png)
SOURCE: http://derecho.math.uwm.edu/models/ (http://derecho.math.uwm.edu/models/)
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I wonder if that new wave will last, from the dry air that is taking over the Atlantic Ocean we'll see if it even makes it. :P
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I wonder if that new wave will last, from the dry air that is taking over the Atlantic Ocean we'll see if it even makes it. :P
Alex,
Erin managed to suck up some of it during it's travel into the Central Atlantic. However, it's rebuilding again just to the north of Invest 94L. It needs to survive past about 40W to have a chance at development IMO.
We've had an unusually high concentration of SAL out in the Atlantic basic the past few years, even during the peak of Hurricane Season when it should be winding down. I'm certain this has contributed to so many of tropical systems looking poor and struggling to development into anything worthwhile.
This is the state of the dry air right now
(http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/sal/splitE.jpg)
FWIW, The 12z GFS doesn't seem excited about this one either. :no: It pretty much degenerates it into a wave.
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While we slept, over just the past couple of days three tropical features have formed in the far western Central Pacific: Pewa, Unala, and Three-C. The first two crossed into the Western Pacific after only a few advisories by the CPHC, and Three-C, not expected to last much longer or even to intensify into a tropical storm, is likely going to dissipate shortly after crossing the International Date Line.
In fact, Pewa was the first storm named by the CPHC since 2010.
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After a lull in the tropics across the Atlantic, the global models such as the GFS/ECMWF/CMC are strongly suggesting a tropical wave exiting the African Coast (circled in red in the image below)will develop into a tropical storm/hurricane once we head into the first third of September.
Granted, were still at least two weeks away from any potential threat to the US (if there is any), but considering the global models are already honing in on this feature this far out, it's worth keeping an eye on...
(http://i.imgur.com/x5YkNIj.jpg)
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NHC has a 70% chance of an invest becoming a tropical depression in the southern Bay of Campeche. A reconnaissance aircraft is investigating the disturbance this afternoon. It would have to form quickly before it reaches the coast of Mexico. Otherwise, the rest of the Atlantic appears quiet, but the Eastern Pacific has remained active as the next named storm will start with a J there.
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NHC has a 70% chance of an invest becoming a tropical depression in the southern Bay of Campeche. A reconnaissance aircraft is investigating the disturbance this afternoon. It would have to form quickly before it reaches the coast of Mexico. Otherwise, the rest of the Atlantic appears quiet, but the Eastern Pacific has remained active as the next named storm will start with a J there.
It's now Tropical Depression Six
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?5-daynl#contents (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?5-daynl#contents)
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After a lull in the tropics across the Atlantic, the global models such as the GFS/ECMWF/CMC are strongly suggesting a tropical wave exiting the African Coast (circled in red in the image below)will develop into a tropical storm/hurricane once we head into the first third of September.
Well, looks like the lull will continue in the Atlantic. This is beginning to get weird to me that were heading into the peak of Hurricane season and it looks to be quite the opposite. :blink: We still haven't even had a hurricane develop yet which is unusual. I can't remember a hurricane season this dead in activity before. :thinking:
I believe Hurricane Gustav (2002) was the latest we've gone before getting our first Atlantic Basin Hurricane. It became a hurricane on September 11, 2002. If we go that far into hurricane season without a named storm becoming a hurricane I'll be shocked. :o
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Will we actually go below average for the year? That would blow the active season prediction out of the water. If we get only one Atlantic hurricane, major or not, I predict TWC will go all out covering it. I've always thought hurricanes were their primary focus, but they've been deprived of it this year.
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Unless the Atlantic basin has a record-setting September and October, it looks like the predictions for this year were pretty off. At least the good news is that fewer storms means the likelihood of serious damage is less.
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We can't have much tropical activity in the Atlantic if we continue to have too much wind shear, dry air from Africa, and a persistent upper level trough over the East Coast.
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Does anyone believe the Thunderstorm Enhancement TWC has been talking about in the Atlantic in the next 1 to 2 weeks?
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No way. :no: No, I'm thinking it's the kind of forecast that might be called a "wish-cast" by some local meteorologists.
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Two disturbances are being watched in the Atlantic. One is expected to fish, the other....eh. I'll leave it at that.
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Invest 97L - This one is the only one that has an ounce of potential to do something, but I still remain a skeptic.
Model Guidance Forecasted Track
http://derecho.math.uwm.edu/models/al972013.png (http://derecho.math.uwm.edu/models/al972013.png)
Model Guidance Intensity Forecast
http://derecho.math.uwm.edu/models/al972013_inten.png (http://derecho.math.uwm.edu/models/al972013_inten.png)
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NHC keeps lowering the chances for the two invests in the Atlantic, so I don't see anything happening for a while. Meanwhile, the Eastern Pacific continues to be active with Tropical Storm Kiko. Fortunately, Kiko poses no threat to land.
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Surprised there is not more chatter about Invest 97L.
This system is looking more impressive with every new satellite image -- although somewhat expansive. Latest HWRF looks impressive -- some runs hinting of hurricane strength after 48 hours. Models are also beginning to forecast tracking, although the GFS has not picked up on the system yet. (The forecast path means nothing now).
Meanwhile, I guess it's the same old story for now, the "2013 Saharan dustbowl" and 10-20 knots shear + tradewinds to deal with over the next 48 hours. If 97L can stay intact, I'm thinking Wednesday or Thursday will be interesting and I might just have to start organizing gear.
W.
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Surprised there is not more chatter about Invest 97L.
This system is looking more impressive with every new satellite image -- although somewhat expansive. Latest HWRF looks impressive -- some runs hinting of hurricane strength after 48 hours. Models are also beginning to forecast tracking, although the GFS has not picked up on the system yet. (The forecast path means nothing now).
Meanwhile, I guess it's the same old story for now, the "2013 Saharan dustbowl" and 10-20 knots shear + tradewinds to deal with over the next 48 hours. If 97L can stay intact, I'm thinking Wednesday or Thursday will be interesting and I might just have to start organizing gear.
W.
My thoughts are similar to yours, I'll feel a lot more optimistic this could be a legit storm once were past midweek this week when conditions should be very favorable for development.
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I think this is the most aggressive intensity forecast I have seen for any invest so far this season. About 1/3 suggesting a major hurricane 5 days from now. :o
Of course, I don't trust or believe that intensity forecast no more than I believe pigs fly in the sky. This is n't the first time they have forecasted a hurricane of any caliber this season. *cough* *cough* Chantal, Dorian, ugh Erin...
It's entertaining and interesting to see them go bonkers on the intensity whether it happens or not though.
(http://derecho.math.uwm.edu/models/al972013_inten.png)
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Unless the Atlantic basin has a record-setting September and October, it looks like the predictions for this year were pretty off. At least the good news is that fewer storms means the likelihood of serious damage is less.
The forecasters were wrong. :) I think people like Jim Cantore (and others like him) are dissapointed about the lack of activity. Of course, there can still be a bad one, like Andrew, but it doesn't look like it right now. Usually, by now were on the "J" or "K" storm, which would be Jerry or Karen. That's about where we'd be right now had the forecasters been correct. And we don't even have to have an el nino pattern to have a relatively quiet season.
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2013 is now officially the 3rd latest start to a tropical system developing into our first hurricane in the Atlantic Basin.
If we don't see our first hurricane develop in the Atlantic/Caribbean/Gulf before next Wednesday (September 11th) this will be the latest start ever post-Satellite era.
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Two invests being watched right now
Invest 98L - Erin Redux
Invest 99L - Fernand Redux
In other words, nothing to see here, it's all smoke and mirrors. :velho:
Were heading into the peak of hurricane season with very little to no fanfare. Unless something randomly gets going in October/November, I'm getting ever so close day by day to waving the white flag and putting the nail in the coffin for 2013 and saying, "See Ya in 2014." However, we have plenty of time left we should be able to reach average for this year though. Maybe slightly above by one or two storms imo.
Ah well, I'm over this now, ready for colder weather and snow.
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Ah well, I'm over this now, ready for colder weather and snow.
Winter 2014 will most likely be more active than the current Hurricane Season, just wait and see :happy:
If New England and New York State is hitting 40s and 30s in early September there is no telling how much Cold and Snow the area will see this upcoming season.
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Ah well, I'm over this now, ready for colder weather and snow.
Winter 2014 will most likely be more active than the current Hurricane Season, just wait and see :happy:
If New England and New York State is hitting 40s and 30s in early September there is no telling how much Cold and Snow the area will see this upcoming season.
We'll see, but September is still too early to get much of any idea of what Winter could be like.
Meanwhile TD 8 randomly forms and makes landfall in Mexico...
We continue the disastrous FAIL that is the Hurricane Season of 2013 :lol: Only 5 more days until we tie that Hurricane-less Atlantic Basin Season Record! I'm actually rooting for it to happen, might as well.
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Ingrid coming by this weekend/next week?
1. AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THIS DISTURBANCE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND INTO THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE BY THURSDAY...WHERE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED
TO FORM. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD
GRADUALLY BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION BY THE WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
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Ingrid coming by this weekend/next week?
The models hint at some possible development in the Bay of Campeche later this week, but the tropical wave needs to survive crossing over the Yucatan Peninsula first. Although it's a little early, the latest GFS model shows a really bad situation in southern TX according to this solution for 8 PM EDT this Sunday:
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Beware the omen of the "I" named storms!
(http://s.imwx.com/dru/2013/09/ec0368fb-fcd9-4c02-8f0d-5748216652d2_650x366.jpg)
^This is pretty amazing, it really puts it in perspective. Ivan (2004) by far is the most interesting and wildest imo for me, especially when it did that loop off the SE coast and went right back into the Gulf hitting the Gulf Coast twice!
Article (weather.com): http://www.weather.com/news/weather-hurricanes/i-hurricanes-atlantic-jinx-20130911 (http://www.weather.com/news/weather-hurricanes/i-hurricanes-atlantic-jinx-20130911)
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Invest 95L
Not much clarity of exactly where it's going...
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That invest is exactly what Mexico does not need to see. After already being hit by Manuel in the Eastern Pacific and Ingrid in the Atlantic, at least 60 people are dead. I hate to imagine what will happen if a third tropical cyclone hits that country within the span of a couple weeks.
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That invest is exactly what Mexico does not need to see. After already being hit by Manuel in the Eastern Pacific and Ingrid in the Atlantic, at least 60 people are dead. I hate to imagine what will happen if a third tropical cyclone hits that country within the span of a couple weeks.
That is what was happening to Florida in 2004.
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That is what was happening to Florida in 2004.
While it was pretty bad in Florida during that scenario, it doesn't have mountains stretching over 12,000 feet high with the dangerous potential for mudslides and flash flooding like Mexico does. At least the invest in the Gulf of Mexico has weakened considerably, but there's still a fair bit of tropical moisture in the area. Some of it will get swept into a cold front crossing over the East Coast late in the weekend.
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You're right it's worse in Mexico because of the tall mountains and the risk of floods and mudslides.
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Invest 97L seems interesting, it could be a big rainmaker for parts of the Southeast this weekend into next week.
I kinda hope it brings some decent rain, I always worry when we start to go through a dry spell for too long...
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Only 10 days left in the Atlantic Hurricane Season!
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The 2013 hurricane season has officially ended today. Unless some fluke storm occurs in December, it appears the Atlantic will finish below normal in activity. There were 14 tropical depressions, 13 tropical storms, and only 2 hurricanes. None of the hurricanes reached major hurricane (Category 3) status, and we didn't even have one reach Category 2 either. Having no major hurricanes is a feat that has not occurred since 1994 in the Atlantic basin. Also, only having two hurricanes for a season has not been seen since 1983. The Eastern Pacific, however, finished above normal in activity with 18 tropical depressions, 18 tropical storms, and 8 hurricanes. Surprisingly, only one of the hurricanes reached major hurricane status, which was Raymond with winds of 125 mph.
There were obviously more storms in the central and western Pacific, and super typhoon Haiyan is a clear reminder as it bottomed out at 895 mb and caused at least 5,600 confirmed deaths in the Philippines. Fortunately, the United States only had two landfalls this season from tropical storms with only 4 deaths in total reported. Mexico experienced much worse impact as I counted eight landfalls in total from the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific basins and at least 200 deaths. I've never been a fan of seasonal forecasts, and 2013 should show everyone why it's almost impossible to predict how an overall season will fare. Hope all of you had fun tracking this season! I'll lock this thread when this calender year ends.