Hurricane Central 2013

[Lightning]

Unless the Atlantic basin has a record-setting September and October, it looks like the predictions for this year were pretty off.  At least the good news is that fewer storms means the likelihood of serious damage is less.

The forecasters were wrong. I think people like Jim Cantore (and others like him) are dissapointed about the lack of activity. Of course, there can still be a bad one, like Andrew, but it doesn't look like it right now. Usually, by now were on the "J" or "K" storm, which would be Jerry or Karen. That's about where we'd be right now had the forecasters been correct. And we don't even have to have an el nino pattern to have a relatively quiet season.

[toxictwister00]

2013 is now officially the 3rd latest start to a tropical system developing into our first hurricane in the Atlantic Basin.

If we don't see our first hurricane develop in the Atlantic/Caribbean/Gulf before next Wednesday (September 11th) this will be the latest start ever post-Satellite era.

[toxictwister00]

Two invests being watched right now

Invest 98L - Erin Redux
Invest 99L - Fernand Redux

In other words, nothing to see here, it's all smoke and mirrors. 

Were heading into the peak of hurricane season with very little to no fanfare. Unless something randomly gets going in October/November, I'm getting ever so close day by day to waving the white flag and putting the nail in the coffin for 2013 and saying, "See Ya in 2014." However, we have plenty of time left we should be able to reach average for this year though. Maybe slightly above by one or two storms imo.

Ah well, I'm over this now, ready for colder weather and snow.

[gt1racerlHDl]

Ah well, I'm over this now, ready for colder weather and snow.

Winter 2014 will most likely be more active than the current Hurricane Season, just wait and see 

If New England and New York State is hitting 40s and 30s in early September there is no telling how much Cold and Snow the area will see this upcoming season.

[toxictwister00]

Ah well, I'm over this now, ready for colder weather and snow.

Winter 2014 will most likely be more active than the current Hurricane Season, just wait and see 

If New England and New York State is hitting 40s and 30s in early September there is no telling how much Cold and Snow the area will see this upcoming season.

We'll see, but September is still too early to get much of any idea of what Winter could be like.

Meanwhile TD 8 randomly forms and makes landfall in Mexico...

We continue the disastrous FAIL that is the Hurricane Season of 2013 Only 5 more days until we tie that Hurricane-less Atlantic Basin Season Record! I'm actually rooting for it to happen, might as well.

[toxictwister00]

Ingrid coming by this weekend/next week?

Code: [Select]

1. AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.  THIS DISTURBANCE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND INTO THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE BY THURSDAY...WHERE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED
TO FORM.  UPPER-LEVEL WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD
GRADUALLY BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION BY THE WEEKEND.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. 

[phw115wvwx]

Ingrid coming by this weekend/next week?

The models hint at some possible development in the Bay of Campeche later this week, but the tropical wave needs to survive crossing over the Yucatan Peninsula first.  Although it's a little early, the latest GFS model shows a really bad situation in southern TX according to this solution for 8 PM EDT this Sunday:

[toxictwister00]

Beware the omen of the "I" named storms!



^This is pretty amazing, it really puts it in perspective. Ivan (2004) by far is the most interesting and wildest imo for me, especially when it did that loop off the SE coast and went right back into the Gulf hitting the Gulf Coast twice!

Article (weather.com): http://www.weather.com/news/weather-hurricanes/i-hurricanes-atlantic-jinx-20130911

[toxictwister00]

Invest 95L

Not much clarity of exactly where it's going...

[phw115wvwx]

That invest is exactly what Mexico does not need to see.  After already being hit by Manuel in the Eastern Pacific and Ingrid in the Atlantic, at least 60 people are dead.  I hate to imagine what will happen if a third tropical cyclone hits that country within the span of a couple weeks.

[Lightning]

That invest is exactly what Mexico does not need to see.  After already being hit by Manuel in the Eastern Pacific and Ingrid in the Atlantic, at least 60 people are dead.  I hate to imagine what will happen if a third tropical cyclone hits that country within the span of a couple weeks.

That is what was happening to Florida in 2004.

[phw115wvwx]

That is what was happening to Florida in 2004.

While it was pretty bad in Florida during that scenario, it doesn't have mountains stretching over 12,000 feet high with the dangerous potential for mudslides and flash flooding like Mexico does.  At least the invest in the Gulf of Mexico has weakened considerably, but there's still a fair bit of tropical moisture in the area.  Some of it will get swept into a cold front crossing over the East Coast late in the weekend.

[Lightning]

You're right it's worse in Mexico because of the tall mountains and the risk of floods and mudslides.

[toxictwister00]

Invest 97L seems interesting, it could be a big rainmaker for parts of the Southeast this weekend into next week.

I kinda hope it brings some decent rain, I always worry when we start to go through a dry spell for too long...

[gt1racerlHDl]

Only 10 days left in the Atlantic Hurricane Season!