Hurricane Central 2013

[Metarvo]

Bud, that's still a lot of storms.

It certainly is, but there will have to be some activity fairly soon for the upper ends of those ranges to be reached.  If the Cape Verde wave we've heard about doesn't amount to a named storm, that puts us near mid-August with only four.  It looks like it will take two storms a week in September to catch up at this rate.

[toxictwister00]

Bud, that's still a lot of storms.

It certainly is, but there will have to be some activity fairly soon for the upper ends of those ranges to be reached.  If the Cape Verde wave we've heard about doesn't amount to a named storm, that puts us near mid-August with only four.  It looks like it will take two storms a week in September to catch up at this rate.

I believe if nothing else we'll reach the average number of 11 by the end of September/Early October.

[gt1racerlHDl]

I don't mind how many storms there unless they take the path of Hurricanes Bill, Earl and Katia.

[toxictwister00]

Global models (GFS/CMC) hinting at homebrew G.O.M. development next weekend.

12z GFS - Makes a AL/FL Panhandle Landfall this run


12z Canadian (CMC) - Makes a TX landfall this run; much more agressive than GFS on strength.


ECMWF on the other hand is NOT on board... shows pretty much nothing during this time period.

[toxictwister00]

I ran across this today which is kinda ironic since today is the 9th anniversary of Hurricane Charley striking FL. It's behind the scenes footage of Stephanie Abrams and a couple of her photographers who were with her during Charley.

TWC Behind Scenes, Hurricane Charley, Daytona Beach 2004.

[toxictwister00]

The tropics in the Atlantic are getting HOT again...

Invest 92L
Chance of Development within 48 hrs - 50% (CODE ORANGE)
Chance of Development within 5 days - 60% (CODE RED)

Code: [Select]

1. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COULD BE
FORMING BETWEEN THE NORTHEASTERN TIP OF HONDURAS AND THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS WHERE THE SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BECOME CONCENTRATED DURING THE
PAST SEVERAL HOURS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AS
IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH TOWARD THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
AND SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. INTERESTS IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
AND THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
DISTURBANCE.
Invest 93L
Chance of Development within 48 hrs - 60% (CODE RED)
Chance of Development within 5 days - 60% (CODE RED)

Code: [Select]

2. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME...THE
LOW WILL BE MOVING TOWARD A LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT...WHICH
COULD LIMIT DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
INTERESTS IN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.

[toxictwister00]

Tropical depression status imminent for both Invest 92/93L...

Eastern Atlantic System
2. CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED
A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
REMAIN WELL ORGANIZED...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER
TODAY OR ON THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
AFTER THAT...THE LOW WILL BE MOVING INTO A LESS FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
REGARDLESS OF ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY
BRING SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
LATER TODAY AND THURSDAY AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
INTERESTS IN THESE ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM.

Caribbean System
1. THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. CLOUDINESS AND
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM BEFORE THE
DISTURBANCE REACHES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ON THURSDAY. AFTER
THAT...THIS WEATHER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO...WHERE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS WILL LIKELY BE A LITTLE LESS
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER OR NOT A
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMS...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE FORECAST
TO SPREAD OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND BELIZE DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO...AND INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF THIS DISTURBANCE.

[phw115wvwx]

While the Eastern Atlantic system has materialized into a named storm, the invest in the Caribbean that is currently moving over the Yucatan Peninsula has run into an upper level low.  Thus, the environment is becoming far more unfavorable by the moment.  It may just end up being sheared apart, but the tropical moisture will be carried in pieces along the stalled front over the Southeast that could lead to flooding issues.

[toxictwister00]

On the flipside of Erin's rapid demise, Invest 92L is looking a little better. Regardless of whether or not it becomes a TD or Fernand model guidance seems to be honing in on TX/LA being the areas to be hit



Convection is gradually beginning to develop over the LLC on the NW side. We'll have to wait and see if that continues...
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/92L/flash-rb-short.html

[toxictwister00]

For pure speculation: the 12z GFS shows two tropical systems in the Central/Eastern Atlantic by late August/early September. *time sensitive*

[SamRichardson92]

Interesting! What did you use for this... I want to "speculate"

[toxictwister00]

Interesting! What did you use for this... I want to "speculate"

That was the GFS(American) computer model that I got from here
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/

I hope you weren't confused by my use of the word speculate, I was talking about speculating on the possibility of two tropical systems the GFS showed developing later this month into September. It's a long way out and may not happen, but I thought it was interesting.

Also, we have yet another Invest to watch...

INVEST 94L - This wave is barely fresh off the coast of Africa!
10% Chance of Development within 48 hours
30% Chance of Development within 5 Days

Code: [Select]

1. A TROPICAL WAVE IS EMERGING OFF OF THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA
SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.  SOME
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
WHILE THE DISTURBANCE MOVES WESTWARD OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
Current Track (6z)


Current Intensity Forecast (6z)


SOURCE: http://derecho.math.uwm.edu/models/

[gt1racerlHDl]

I wonder if that new wave will last, from the dry air that is taking over the Atlantic Ocean we'll see if it even makes it. 

[toxictwister00]

I wonder if that new wave will last, from the dry air that is taking over the Atlantic Ocean we'll see if it even makes it. 

Alex,

Erin managed to suck up some of it during it's travel into the Central Atlantic. However, it's rebuilding again just to the north of Invest 94L. It needs to survive past about 40W to have a chance at development IMO.

We've had an unusually high concentration of SAL out in the Atlantic basic the past few years, even during the peak of Hurricane Season when it should be winding down. I'm certain this has contributed to so many of tropical systems looking poor and struggling to development into anything worthwhile.

This is the state of the dry air right now


FWIW, The 12z GFS doesn't seem excited about this one either. It pretty much degenerates it into a wave.

[Eric]

While we slept, over just the past couple of days three tropical features have formed in the far western Central Pacific: Pewa, Unala, and Three-C.  The first two crossed into the Western Pacific after only a few advisories by the CPHC, and Three-C, not expected to last much longer or even to intensify into a tropical storm, is likely going to dissipate shortly after crossing the International Date Line.

In fact, Pewa was the first storm named by the CPHC since 2010.