Hurricane Central 2013

[toxictwister00]

This tropical disturbance is a little more interesting...

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2. CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE FAR
EASTERN ATLANTIC ABOUT 800 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD BE BECOME A LITTLE MORE
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHILE THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo/gtwo_atl_sub.shtml?area2#contents

EDIT: Here's a satellite loop, there's definitely a circulation in there.
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/loop.asp?product=1kmsrvis&storm_identifier=AL952013&starting_image=2013AL95_1KMSRVIS_201307061145.GIF

[Mr. Rainman]

It is up to 30% now, and with good SSTs ahead of it and shear expected to weaken in its path, prospects are looking for this thing to develop further and possibly become a depression in the next few days.  This is nice - July is usually a pretty dead month in terms of tropical development.

[toxictwister00]

CODE RED - 60% chance of development.

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1. A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 1150 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 25 MPH. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...
AND RECENT SATELLITE WIND DATA INDICATE THAT A CLOSED SURFACE
CIRCULATION MAY BE FORMING. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE
FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE...AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION OR A TROPICAL STORM COULD FORM AT ANY TIME...WHICH WOULD
REQUIRE A TROPICAL STORM WATCH OR WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
Intensity forecast - Most models here seem to agree on a Chantal within 36-48 hrs from now, about three of them go further into hurricane intensity, but I'm very doubtful of that especially if it heads towards Hisponola.
http://derecho.math.uwm.edu/models/al952013_inten.png

Current Modeled Track

[toxictwister00]

06z GFS hints at a potential "Dorian" by this time next week. At the very end of the run it takes the system into TX/OK. I didn't see the 18z or 00z run yesterday so I can't say whether this has been consistent, but I know the 12z run yesterday showed something similar.

[TWCCraig]

Ugh.. I really hope that tropical disturbance the GFS keeps showing 384 hours out entering the Caribbean doesn't form. I'm going to be in the Keys around that time and the last thing I want any tropical disturbance to be around, even if it's remnants.

[toxictwister00]

Invest 98L - 30% Chance of Development

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1. A TROPICAL WAVE ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO PRODUCE
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTHEAST OF
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.  ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE
FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO BEFORE THE WAVE MOVES
INTO A LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT LATER IN THE WEEK.  THIS SYSTEM
HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 15 TO 20 MPH.  INTERESTS IN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE.
Current Model Guidance Tracks (as of 18z)
http://derecho.math.uwm.edu/models/al982013.png

Current Intensity Forecast (as of 18z)
http://derecho.math.uwm.edu/models/al982013_inten.png

[phw115wvwx]

The aforementioned invest now has a 40% chance of development over the next 48 hours according to NHC.  However, the upper level conditions don't become quite as favorable tomorrow, so we will wait and see.

[gt1racerlHDl]

Tropical Update with Storm Tracker Jim Cantore

[toxictwister00]

60% Chance

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1. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES
SOUTH OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION...AND ONLY A SMALL
INCREASE IN THE AMOUNT AND ORGANIZATION OF THE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WOULD RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO BEFORE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AND
OCEAN TEMPERATURES BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE BY THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[toxictwister00]

Up to 70% as of 11pm update, we might have our TD by tomorrow according to the discussion for 11pm.

Personally, I don't see much coming out of this at all. 

[toxictwister00]

Another invest being monitored...

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1. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPED BENEATH AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH ABOUT 500 MILES EAST OF BERMUDA.  UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES NORTHWESTWARD TO
NORTHWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo/gtwo_atl_sub.shtml?area1#contents

[phw115wvwx]

The Atlantic basin has fallen way behind the Eastern Pacific basin so far in 2013.  While the Atlantic has four tropical storms to this point, the Eastern Pacific is up to eight named storms with six of them being hurricanes.  Due to the persistent upper level trough over the eastern United States, increased dust and dry air from Africa, and higher wind shear from the Eastern Pacific activity, things will have to change a lot before the Atlantic becomes active again.

[toxictwister00]

The GFS has been showing a rather potent and robust Cape Verde wave near the latter end of August which is known as voodoo land on the GFS. However, it's been shown for a few runs now. The 6z run is below.

[Metarvo]

http://www.myfoxny.com/Story/23084472/noaa-trims-forecast-for-busy-hurricane-season

So much for the big Atlantic hurricane season this year.  They're already trimming the forecast back a little, with 13-19 tropical storms, 6-9 hurricanes, and 3-5 majors.  Of course, the above article points out that it's the landfalls that get noticed and not necessarily the number of storms.  I guess the forecasters feel like it's better to forecast a few extra storms and scale the prediction back as needed.  Better safe than sorry.

[Mr. Rainman]

http://www.myfoxny.com/Story/23084472/noaa-trims-forecast-for-busy-hurricane-season

So much for the big Atlantic hurricane season this year.  They're already trimming the forecast back a little, with 13-19 tropical storms, 6-9 hurricanes, and 3-5 majors.  Of course, the above article points out that it's the landfalls that get noticed and not necessarily the number of storms.  I guess the forecasters feel like it's better to forecast a few extra storms and scale the prediction back as needed.  Better safe than sorry.

Bud, that's still a lot of storms.