Hurricane Central 2013

[Lightning]

Whether this system develops into anything or not, there's going to be some significant problems.  Flood watches are up for most of the Florida peninsula, and I wouldn't be surprised to see some severe weather as well.

Oh no!!!    We are going to be driving in it. This makes me so mad! 

[Eric]

It's already pouring in Daytona Beach... just in time for my bike ride home from work!

[TWCCraig]

HWO for my location:

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
425 AM EDT WED JUN 5 2013

CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179-061000-
NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-
NORTHERN NEW LONDON-SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-
SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-WESTERN PASSAIC-
EASTERN PASSAIC-HUDSON-WESTERN BERGEN-EASTERN BERGEN-WESTERN ESSEX-
EASTERN ESSEX-WESTERN UNION-EASTERN UNION-ORANGE-PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-
NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-
RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-
NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-
NORTHERN QUEENS-NORTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHERN QUEENS-SOUTHERN NASSAU-
425 AM EDT WED JUN 5 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN
CONNECTICUT...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD PASS OVER OR
CLOSE TO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. EXTENSIVE TROPICAL
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW COULD RESULT IN HEAVY RAINFALL
LEADING TO FLOODING. THE POTENTIAL DOES EXIST FOR SEVERAL INCHES
OF RAINFALL.

SEE THE LATEST AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION ISSUED BY NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS
UPCOMING WEATHER EVENT.

GGEM:


NAM (outlier too far west):


ECMWF (IMO best solution, bullseye for us):


Probably looking at 2-5" of rain here.

[toxictwister00]

RECON has been finding TS force winds in Invest 91L around the COC, pressure has dropped to around 1004-1005mb.

Now we just wait and see if we get TD #1 or Andrea, I'm fairly confident one or the other will occur (more so on the latter than the former).

[TWCCraig]

Boom!

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_al912013_al012013.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201306052121
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END

AL, 01, 2013060518, , BEST, 0, 253N, 866W, 35, 1006, TS, 34, NEQ, 50, 120, 0, 0, 1010, 250, 120, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, ANDREA, M,


SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT WED JUN 5 2013

SPECIAL OUTLOOK ISSUED TO UPDATE DISCUSSION ON THE LOW PRESSURE AREA
IN THE GULF OF MEXICO

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS ABLE TO IDENTIFY A
WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION IN THE LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE EAST-
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. BASED ON THIS
FINDING...THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER WILL INITIATE ADVISORIES ON
TROPICAL STORM ANDREA WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
HIGH CHANCE...NEAR 100 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[toxictwister00]

Invest 92L - not much to write home about (yet)

Little Tidbit here: This tropical wave originated from the coast of Africa as a Cape Verde Wave! Highly unusual to see tropical waves developing from the Cape Verde this early in the season.

Code: [Select]

1. A SMALL LOW PRESSURE AREA PRODUCING WINDS TO NEAR TROPICAL STORM
FORCE IS LOCATED ABOUT 775 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.
ALTHOUGH THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS
BECOME A LITTLE MORE ORGANIZED TODAY...STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO LIMIT ANY ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AS THIS DISTURBANCE
MOVES WESTWARD AROUND 15 MPH.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.


[gt1racerlHDl]

Invest 92L - not much to write home about (yet)

Looks like the NHC has downgraded the Invest to 0% but i won't be surprised if it picks up steam sometime this weekend.

[toxictwister00]

Invest 92L - not much to write home about (yet)

Looks like the NHC has downgraded the Invest to 0% but i won't be surprised if it picks up steam sometime this weekend.

I would give it another week before it can do much of anything. Wind Shear is strong out ahead of it, I don't think it will relax enough this weekend to help it out. If it gets it's act together the track is very interesting. Looking at the weather underground image below, it's not certain whether it would make for an east coaster or a GOM storm. All of this is just hypothetical of course.




Hurricane Fran (1996) and Hurricane Frances (2004) look like decent track analogs so far. (NOT strength-wise, we gotta get a storm first before speculating on that)

[toxictwister00]

Invest 93L - Code Orange

Code: [Select]

1. DISTURBED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR THE COASTS OF
NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY.  ALTHOUGH
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA LATER TODAY
AND TONIGHT...SOME DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE IF THE DISTURBANCE
EMERGES INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IN A DAY OR SO.  THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...
HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AMERICA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. 

[toxictwister00]

It's been waffling the past couple of days on the GFS, but from June 29th to July 4th (Independence Day) looks like another time period to watch for tropical development. (Caribbean/Gulf of Mexico)

[TWCCraig]

GFS wants to bring a strong tropical storm/hurricane from the GOM up the east coast just in time for the 4th of July. This time I'm not buying yet. Euro not even hinting a tropical development in that time frame.

[toxictwister00]

Ironically it's developing it in the same general area Barry developed. I think for the first time in years, the Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean is where a lot of our storms will end up firing up this year.

[phw115wvwx]

So far, we have had two tropical storms in the Atlantic, while the Eastern Pacific has had three named storms with two of them being hurricanes.  Those are respectable activity results for June.

[toxictwister00]

20% chance of development

Code: [Select]

1. A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND MOVE INLAND ALONG THE TEXAS COAST BY
SUNDAY. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW
TO OCCUR DUE TO PROXIMITY TO LAND AND ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...THIS DISTURBANCE WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF UPPER TEXAS AND
SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO
SUNDAY.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo/gtwo_atl_sub.shtml?area1#contents

[phw115wvwx]

The Eastern Pacific is very active now, and Mexico has been dodging bullets lately with Dalila and Erick.