Hurricane Central 2013

[Localonthe8s]

I hope it's not true either. I don't wanna see another sandy like storm again

[Lightning]

I hope it's not true either. I don't wanna see another sandy like storm again

I don't want to see another storm of ANY name, regardless of what the name is, not one the strikes somewhere and impacts wherever it hits enough for it's name to be retired.

[toxictwister00]

The first 10 days of June I still believe Andrea will make an appearance. 

18z GFS - Thursday, June 6, 2013 Hour 288 (Landfall is in Southern Florida around hour 312 this run)

[Eric]

Too close for comfort.

[Lightning]

But the GFS is always aggressive at wanting to develop a tropical system and it's not always right. It hasn't even formed, yet. Don't worry about something that doesn't even exist, yet! It's a long ways out and may not even develop at all! The GFS has a reputation for being aggressive (too aggressive at times) when it come to tropical systems.

[TWCCraig]

But the GFS is always aggressive at wanting to develop a tropical system and it's not always right. It hasn't even formed, yet. Don't worry about something that doesn't even exist, yet! It's a long ways out and may not even develop at all! The GFS has a reputation for being aggressive (too aggressive at times) when it come to tropical systems.

Not always. I recall correctly the GFS showing Hurricane Irene tracking up the east coast as far back as August 2nd, weeks before it formed. If the signal is there and it shows up on almost every run (which this new threat has been), I think it's possible. If the ECMWF is also on board with the system then it's likely.

[toxictwister00]

I only saw the 12z GFS today, but it brought in the tropical system I mentioned yesterday two days earlier (around day 11/June 4th if I'm not mistaken) and slightly further SE than the 18z run on Friday. It spins a little more time down near Cuba on the 12z run today than it did that 18z run yesterday, in fact the center doesn't even make landfall on S. FL on the 12z run today. I'm feeling more and more confident "something" will come up in early June whether it's in the GOM or off the SE coast. Like Craig mentioned above me, if the ECMWF and/or any other global models start jumping on board on something around this timeframe I'll feel the possibility will be more likely.

EDIT: Eric, I wouldn't panic about potential "Andrea"  right now, even on the GFS it would be fairly harmless to South Florida outside of some good heavy rains at the worst.

[Mr. Rainman]

Hurricane Barbara made landfall 20 miles west of Talano, Mexico. Concerning East Pacific tropical records, this is the easternmost landfall location for an Eastern North Pacific tropical cyclone ever recorded, as well as the second-earliest landfall to date. Peak winds were 75 mph.

[Lightning]

Too close for comfort.

For now, don't put much stock in that. It can change very quickly.

[Eric]

So... running out to buy a kitchenful of canned goods and bottled watter before everything disappeared from the store shelves was a bad idea?

[Lightning]

So... running out to buy a kitchenful of canned goods and bottled watter before everything disappeared from the store shelves was a bad idea?

No, but panicking and being all doom and gloom thinking it will definitely affect you directly when it's too early to tell and going by one model, which hasn't been right too often lately was not necessary. It was not a bad idea, better safe than sorry, but it may just be remnants of Barbara in the eastern Pacific and not even become Andrea, and even if it does, it's not like you have a hurricane, let alone a major hurricane bearing down on you.

[toxictwister00]

So... running out to buy a kitchenful of canned goods and bottled watter before everything disappeared from the store shelves was a bad idea?

No, but panicking and being all doom and gloom thinking it will definitely affect you directly when it's too early to tell and going by one model, which hasn't been right too often lately was not necessary. It was not a bad idea, better safe than sorry, but it may just be remnants of Barbara in the eastern Pacific and not even become Andrea, and even if it does, it's not like you have a hurricane, let alone a major hurricane bearing down on you.

Tropical Storms can be be just as dangerous and deadly as any major hurricane. Allison (2001) and Fay (2008) are the best examples, especially the latter for Florida.

[Localonthe8s]

Also Irene caused mass panic Among those in the northeast and brought torrential downpours and flooding for days. While no Sandy, it was worse enough to be retired

[Lightning]

So... running out to buy a kitchenful of canned goods and bottled watter before everything disappeared from the store shelves was a bad idea?

No, but panicking and being all doom and gloom thinking it will definitely affect you directly when it's too early to tell and going by one model, which hasn't been right too often lately was not necessary. It was not a bad idea, better safe than sorry, but it may just be remnants of Barbara in the eastern Pacific and not even become Andrea, and even if it does, it's not like you have a hurricane, let alone a major hurricane bearing down on you.

Tropical Storms can be be just as dangerous and deadly as any major hurricane. Allison (2001) and Fay (2008) are the best examples, especially the latter for Florida.

You're right, there is the flooding aspect of the storm. However, sometimes these kind of storms bring needed rain to dry/drought-stricken areas. At this time, we are talking about the remnants of Barbara, were not talking about Andrea, yet, and these storms only bring bad floods if they move very slowly, like the ones you're talking about, Allison in 2001 and Faye in 2008. Things things are still unpredictable and have a mind of their own, despite all the technology we have now. As for Irene, it also moved very slowly which produced heavy rains that caused flooding in the northeast. I'm not saying you should ignore the possibility and be unprepared for it, I'm just saying don't be all doom and gloom about it, either.

[toxictwister00]

Today is officially the start of Hurricane Season and we have our first CODE YELLOW area to start the season off.

Code: [Select]

1. DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR
DUE TO UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AND PROXIMITY TO LAND.  THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.