Hurricane Central 2013

[toxictwister00]

After a lull in the tropics across the Atlantic, the global models such as the GFS/ECMWF/CMC are strongly suggesting a tropical wave exiting the African Coast (circled in red in the image below)will develop into a tropical storm/hurricane once we head into the first third of September.

Granted, were still at least two weeks away from any potential threat to the US (if there is any), but considering the global models are already honing in on this feature this far out, it's worth keeping an eye on...

[phw115wvwx]

NHC has a 70% chance of an invest becoming a tropical depression in the southern Bay of Campeche.  A reconnaissance aircraft is investigating the disturbance this afternoon.  It would have to form quickly before it reaches the coast of Mexico.  Otherwise, the rest of the Atlantic appears quiet, but the Eastern Pacific has remained active as the next named storm will start with a J there.

[toxictwister00]

NHC has a 70% chance of an invest becoming a tropical depression in the southern Bay of Campeche.  A reconnaissance aircraft is investigating the disturbance this afternoon.  It would have to form quickly before it reaches the coast of Mexico.  Otherwise, the rest of the Atlantic appears quiet, but the Eastern Pacific has remained active as the next named storm will start with a J there.

It's now Tropical Depression Six
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?5-daynl#contents

[toxictwister00]

After a lull in the tropics across the Atlantic, the global models such as the GFS/ECMWF/CMC are strongly suggesting a tropical wave exiting the African Coast (circled in red in the image below)will develop into a tropical storm/hurricane once we head into the first third of September.

Well, looks like the lull will continue in the Atlantic. This is beginning to get weird to me that were heading into the peak of Hurricane season and it looks to be quite the opposite. We still haven't even had a hurricane develop yet which is unusual. I can't remember a hurricane season this dead in activity before.

I believe Hurricane Gustav (2002) was the latest we've gone before getting our first Atlantic Basin Hurricane. It became a hurricane on September 11, 2002. If we go that far into hurricane season without a named storm becoming a hurricane I'll be shocked.

[Metarvo]

Will we actually go below average for the year?  That would blow the active season prediction out of the water.  If we get only one Atlantic hurricane, major or not, I predict TWC will go all out covering it.  I've always thought hurricanes were their primary focus, but they've been deprived of it this year.

[Eric]

Unless the Atlantic basin has a record-setting September and October, it looks like the predictions for this year were pretty off.  At least the good news is that fewer storms means the likelihood of serious damage is less.

[phw115wvwx]

We can't have much tropical activity in the Atlantic if we continue to have too much wind shear, dry air from Africa, and a persistent upper level trough over the East Coast.

[gt1racerlHDl]

Does anyone believe the Thunderstorm Enhancement TWC has been talking about in the Atlantic in the next 1 to 2 weeks?

[Metarvo]

No way.    No, I'm thinking it's the kind of forecast that might be called a "wish-cast" by some local meteorologists.

[toxictwister00]

Two disturbances are being watched in the Atlantic. One is expected to fish, the other....eh. I'll leave it at that.

[toxictwister00]

Invest 97L - This one is the only one that has an ounce of potential to do something, but I still remain a skeptic.

Model Guidance Forecasted Track
http://derecho.math.uwm.edu/models/al972013.png

Model Guidance Intensity Forecast
http://derecho.math.uwm.edu/models/al972013_inten.png

[phw115wvwx]

NHC keeps lowering the chances for the two invests in the Atlantic, so I don't see anything happening for a while.  Meanwhile, the Eastern Pacific continues to be active with Tropical Storm Kiko.  Fortunately, Kiko poses no threat to land.

[Warren Faidley]

Surprised there is not more chatter about Invest 97L.

This system is looking more impressive with every new satellite image -- although somewhat expansive. Latest HWRF looks impressive -- some runs hinting of hurricane strength after 48 hours. Models are also beginning to forecast tracking, although the GFS has not picked up on the system yet. (The forecast path means nothing now).

Meanwhile, I guess it's the same old story for now, the "2013 Saharan dustbowl" and 10-20 knots shear + tradewinds to deal with over the next 48 hours. If 97L can stay intact, I'm thinking Wednesday or Thursday will be interesting and I might just have to start organizing gear.

W.

[toxictwister00]

Surprised there is not more chatter about Invest 97L.

This system is looking more impressive with every new satellite image -- although somewhat expansive. Latest HWRF looks impressive -- some runs hinting of hurricane strength after 48 hours. Models are also beginning to forecast tracking, although the GFS has not picked up on the system yet. (The forecast path means nothing now).

Meanwhile, I guess it's the same old story for now, the "2013 Saharan dustbowl" and 10-20 knots shear + tradewinds to deal with over the next 48 hours. If 97L can stay intact, I'm thinking Wednesday or Thursday will be interesting and I might just have to start organizing gear.

W.

My thoughts are similar to yours, I'll feel a lot more optimistic this could be a legit storm once were past midweek this week when conditions should be very favorable for development.

[toxictwister00]

I think this is the most aggressive intensity forecast I have seen for any invest so far this season. About 1/3 suggesting a major hurricane 5 days from now.

Of course, I don't trust or believe that intensity forecast no more than I believe pigs fly in the sky. This is n't the first time they have forecasted a hurricane of any caliber this season. *cough* *cough* Chantal, Dorian, ugh Erin...
It's entertaining and interesting to see them go bonkers on the intensity whether it happens or not though.