Hurricane Central 2013

[Lightning]

Today is officially the start of Hurricane Season and we have our first CODE YELLOW area to start the season off.

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1. DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR
DUE TO UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AND PROXIMITY TO LAND.  THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

Well, you heard it from National Hurricane Center itself. It has a 10% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone the next 48 hours. Now, that might change. But for now, that also means a 90% chance of not forming into a tropical cyclone.

[phw115wvwx]

I wouldn't trust the global models with their predictions of whether a tropical storm will form or not.  The models were designed with mid-latitude weather phenomenon in mind, so they don't perform well in the tropics where there's little data even though satellites have helped with this problem.  You just have to wait and see at this time, but I don't like the current environment this disturbance is encountering as mentioned by NHC.

[toxictwister00]

I give it a 40% chance of becoming a sloppy, disorganized, messy Andrea at some point over the next several days.

[Metarvo]

The Atlantic hurricane season predictions are out now.  TWC is going for 16 tropical storms, with 9 becoming hurricanes and 5 becoming major hurricanes.  Some sound advice came with this prediction, though: the number of hurricanes is not as significant as the number of landfalling hurricanes.  Additionally, it seems like they predict an above normal hurricane season every year.

[toxictwister00]

Invest 90L has been deactivated, Invest 91L has a 20 chance of development over the next 48 hours.

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1. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHWESTERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA TO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA
OF CLOUDINESS AND DISORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS.  ANY DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR DUE TO MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT DRIFTS GENERALLY NORTHWARD.

[Lightning]

The Atlantic hurricane season predictions are out now.  TWC is going for 16 tropical storms, with 9 becoming hurricanes and 5 becoming major hurricanes.  Some sound advice came with this prediction, though: the number of hurricanes is not as significant as the number of landfalling hurricanes.  Additionally, it seems like they predict an above normal hurricane season every year.

They make a very good point when they say that numbers don't matter. It's if any hit the U.S. coast that matters. You can have a very active season and still see no storms making landfall on the U.S. coast, like in 2010, and you can have a below average season, like 1992, and still have only one storm - which is all it takes - to make landfall in the U.S. and be (at that time) the most costly hurricane is U.S. history (Andrew). Also, you are right, they do predict an active season every year. They haven't always been right, though.

[toxictwister00]

Upgraded to CODE ORANGE.

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1. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT THE
CIRCULATION OF THE LOW HAS BECOME SLIGHTLY BETTER DEFINED TODAY.
ADDITIONAL GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS DESPITE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL OR
SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT DRIFTS GENERALLY
NORTHWARD. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE
LIKELY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LOW OVER PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA...AS WELL AS THE FLORIDA KEYS
AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

[toxictwister00]

Up to 40% this afternoon

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1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO REMAIN DISORGANIZED AND
LOCATED WELL EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS COULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO..BEFORE THE LOW INTERACTS WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE..40 PERCENT..OF
BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD OR NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD.  REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA..CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA...AS WELL
AS THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.
Below is my first preliminary storm track map along w/ an approx. landfall point and possible max wind speeds.

[Lightning]

Up to 40% this afternoon

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1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO REMAIN DISORGANIZED AND
LOCATED WELL EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS COULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO..BEFORE THE LOW INTERACTS WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE..40 PERCENT..OF
BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD OR NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD.  REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA..CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA...AS WELL
AS THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.
Below is my first preliminary storm track map along w/ an approx. landfall point and possible max wind speeds.

You seem happy that the chance of it becoming Andrea is getting better. I'm not. We are leaving for SW Florida on Thursday and I don't want us to be driving in it.

[toxictwister00]

I'm happy whether it's Andrea, TD #1 or it stays Invest 91L. I just hope we can get some rain from it over here.

[Mr. Rainman]

00Z intensity guidance is pretty telling. I don't see an Andrea in the cards, but a lot of rain is on the way.

[toxictwister00]

Up to 50% this morning, visually on satellite it looks a lot better organized with that appears to be more convection showing up around the center, but we all know how deceiving that can be...*cough* *cough* Irene, Ernesto, (frustrated sigh) Issac...

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1. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO IS
PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS AND STRONG
GUSTY WINDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. ALTHOUGH THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW HAS INCREASED
OVERNIGHT...THE CIRCULATION REMAINS POORLY-DEFINED.  ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS COULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR STORM
COULD FORM BEFORE THE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEASTWARD OVER NORTHERN
FLORIDA LATE THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS DISTURBANCE THIS
AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY.  REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
WESTERN CUBA...THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA DURING
THE COUPLE OF DAYS. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...AND IN PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE OR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

[Metarvo]

Last night was the first time I had seen TWC put out what amounts to an advisory for an invest.  Not a tropical depression or even a tropical wave, but an invest.  Straw-grasping much?  The OCM did say that this system will heavy rain and rough seas where it hits regardless of whether or not it becomes a TD.

[toxictwister00]

CODE RED - 60% Chance of development
RECON Flight still scheduled for this afternoon

* My guess is they will find something to suggest TD status.  (That's just my opinion though)

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1. A BROAD AND ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A LARGE AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS AND WINDS
TO NEAR GALE FORCE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.  SATELLITE
AND SURFACE DATA SUGGEST THAT THE CIRCULATION REMAINS POORLY
DEFINED...HOWEVER AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE DISTURBANCE THIS AFTERNOON.  ALTHOUGH
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR STORM BEFORE IT MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN
FLORIDA LATE THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. 

THIS SYSTEM HAS ALREADY PRODUCED TORRENTIAL RAINS AND FLOODING
OVER THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA AND WESTERN CUBA.  REGARDLESS
OF DEVELOPMENT...ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA DURING
THE COUPLE OF DAYS.  ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.  ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM AND ITS EFFECTS CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH
SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...AND IN
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE OR
NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

[phw115wvwx]

Whether this system develops into anything or not, there's going to be some significant problems.  Flood watches are up for most of the Florida peninsula, and I wouldn't be surprised to see some severe weather as well.