Hurricane Danielle

[TWCmatthew]

This girl is getting bigger and bigger the more she turns  and is it me or is Danielle still moving due west? Shouldn't she jogging NW by now? Also I was on the accuweather forums and there are reports of winds up to 83mph and pressure 982mb so don't surprised to see this upgraded to 85mph in the next update in less than an hour.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-vis.html

It's moving WNW according to one of the Tropical Updates this evening.

[TWCmatthew]

i expect the Cat 4 % to skyrocket

I agree 50/50. If this hurricane doesn't start turning more northerly, there'll be more time that it can pick up warm water and strength. That would also cause a greater potential impact for the eastern U.S. Although, I kind of think that ridge will block a direct impact to the U.S., causing Danielle to drift more to the north, therefore losing strength.

[toxictwister00]

The eye is finally appearing!

[phw115wvwx]

Hurricane Danielle is undergoing a rapid intensification process.  It now has winds of 85 mph with a pressure of 982 mb.  Unlike previous storms, the shear is low right now, so NHC expects Danielle to become the first major hurricane in about 48 hours.  The track still has Danielle sitting east of Bermuda by the weekend.

[TWCmatthew]

Hurricane Danielle is undergoing a rapid intensification process.  It now has winds of 85 mph with a pressure of 982 mb.  Unlike previous storms, the shear is low right now, so NHC expects Danielle to become the first major hurricane in about 48 hours.  The track still has Danielle sitting east of Bermuda by the weekend.

Do you think Danielle could be a Cat 5 briefly before it hits more colder waters?

[phw115wvwx]

Do you think Danielle could be a Cat 5 briefly before it hits more colder waters?

No, it's a very far stretch, and conditions have to be absolutely ideal for that to happen.  Models are showing some shear will return over Danielle in two to three days.  My guess is that it'll peak as a strong Category 3 hurricane.

[TWCToday]

lll call it at a cat 3

[phw115wvwx]

The winds were up to 100 mph as of 5 AM, but the rapid intensification process has suddenly stopped.  Danielle has weakened to 80 mph at the 11 AM advisory.  Some dry air was wrapping around the circulation earlier.  See, it's not easy predicting the intensity of hurricanes at all.

[toxictwister00]

There's something I seriously don't understand about the conditions of the tropics this year. If we are phasing from neutral to La Nina phase then why is there still the persistent problem of dry and wind shear? Shouldn't that be close to nonexistent right about now considering the peak is in a few weeks.

[TWCToday]

See, it's not easy predicting the intensity of hurricanes at all.

Did anybody say it was?

Back to a TS for now

[toxictwister00]

Wow, the 18z GFS wants Danielle to slam New England as a possible Cat 2 heading into Labor Day Weekend.  I know it's just one run and this is fantasy-land for the GFS, but it's interesting that it's throwing this solution out there still. 

[gt1racerlHDl]

If that's the case it will be a sight to see on my intellistar's Radar/Satellite!

[WeatherWitness]

Danielle is back a tropical storm, but TWC's projected path still predicts it to become as strong as a Cat 3 hurricane. I didn't realize the storm would weaken so quickly though?

And, as Tavores asked, "If we are phasing from neutral to La Nina phase then why is there still the persistent problem of dry and wind shear? Shouldn't that be close to nonexistent right about now considering the peak is in a few weeks?"

[toxictwister00]

I also have another question, I know that in situations like Danielle being it was forecasted to reach Cat 3 yesterday tend to be recurve because it is better influenced by the high in the atl. right now since mature hurricanes have higher storm tops so with Danielle weakening significantly more than was expected does this mean there's a possibility she could start moving more west than due north or NE? 

EDIT: Welcome back Hurricane Danielle (again)  This is of 11pm advisory via NHC.

[phw115wvwx]

Danielle is back to being a hurricane with winds of 75 mph as of the 11 PM advisory.  The models have shifted the track a little more westward, so Bermuda and the East Coast must keep a close watch on this developing situation.  Now, I'll try to answer the questions asked here:

Andy and Tavores, La Niña is only one factor among many to consider.  The dry air and wind shear can be found locally in patches and will never completely vanish.  La Niña conditions only means that it's more likely there will be more favorable conditions for hurricanes, but note that it's only a probability, not a guarantee.

Tavores, the possibility of it moving more west than due north is certainly there as it's weaker and would be steered more by the lower levels.  However, it's not going to be a huge factor as it's still a strong enough storm to feel the upper level winds.  Where the troughs and ridges are situated and how they change will be the bigger question going forward.

Martin, intensity is the most difficult forecasting problem in a tropical cyclone forecast, so I'm just reinforcing it with more emphasis.  I don't mean to offend anyone.  I'm glad you all are a more educated group as I've had to struggle explaining these things to the normal public.