TWC Today Forums
Weather Discussion => Hazardous Weather => Hurricane Central => Topic started by: TWCToday on August 20, 2010, 12:28:33 PM
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Models rapidly intensify this and I expect this to be our next D storm in time. Looks for now to be a fish
(http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_95.gif)
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Cool...but it looks now as if it will have no impact to land. Guess we'll just have to wait and see. :hmm:
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Its a shame that a lot of storms have sheared off this year :hmm: i wonder that when predictions are made that they only look at water temps but not wind patterns :dunno: just seems that way lol
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Cool...but it looks now as if it will have no impact to land. Guess we'll just have to wait and see. :hmm:
Thats what I meant by fish storm :P ECMWF has been going west though!
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We now have Tropical Depression #6
(http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/overview_atl/atl_overview.gif)
(http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT06/refresh/AL0610W5_NL_sm2+gif/203013W5_NL_sm.gif)
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This system will be named Danielle soon. The winds were at 30 mph earlier when Tavores introduced it at 5 PM, and they've already increased to 35 mph as of 11 PM.
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Looks like no major landmasses are directly threatened at the moment. Models have trended slightly more west though
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Say hello to Danielle! :wave: (As of the 5pm Advisory via NHC)
(http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/overview_atl/atl_overview.gif)
Satellite loop - The convection is exploding like crazy near the center! :o
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-vis.html (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-vis.html)
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I don't think TD6/soon to be Danielle will make it to the U.S. or even Canada. I think the High Pressure over the U.S. now will definately turn it due north, and then push it northeast once it approaches Bermuda. Therefore, even if this system becomes a Cat 2 or higher, TWC won't go into Storm Alert mode. But you never know, it's still over a week away...
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Its a shame that a lot of storms have sheared off this year :hmm: i wonder that when predictions are made that they only look at water temps but not wind patterns :dunno: just seems that way lol
Shear is excellent for tornadoes but an enemy for a tropical system.
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I don't think TD6/soon to be Danielle will make it to the U.S. or even Canada. I think the High Pressure over the U.S. now will definately turn it due north, and then push it northeast once it approaches Bermuda. Therefore, even if this system becomes a Cat 2 or higher, TWC won't go into Storm Alert mode. But you never know, it's still over a week away...
Soon to be? It's been Danielle for the past few hours now and to be honest I don't want to lock on a quick recurve scenario just yet because eventhough an EC hit is still low, the chance is there and some models have been trending west than they have been, I have seen some runs this weekend that want to batter Bermuda and a couple that take this on a track similar to Bill last year scrapping close to NE/Canada.
EDIT: Looks like Danielle is trying to reorganize herself tonight.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-vis.html (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-vis.html)
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Tropical Storm Danielle has strengthened to winds of 50 mph as of 11 PM. It's expected to become a hurricane in the next couple days as it heads towards Bermuda. It's too early to tell if Danielle will make any impact on Bermuda or the East Coast as there's a lot of disagreement between the numerical models on the track beyond 5 days.
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It seems like there's a lot of wind shear this year with these storms, preventing them from strengthening any further. I guess now it's hard to tell where Danielle is going to go and how strong the storm will be. :thinking:
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Err no clue why this got locked! SORRY!
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Wow, what a beauty! :wub: Also Danielle has been upgraded to Hurricane status as of the 5pm advisory.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/sloop-rb.html (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/sloop-rb.html)
(http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/overview_atl/atl_overview.gif)
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The Trough near the East Coast will Determine Danielle's Path.
we might have another Bill on our hands.
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The Trough near the East Coast will Determine Danielle's Path.
we might have another Bill on our hands.
It's a slim chance, but if it slows down over the next few days and it misses the trough over the ECONUS as it's moving out were in big trouble, but at least it's a very slim chance right now so I'm worried about that happening.
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It looks like Danielle will have time and room to really become something big here. I guess the question is: will she hit the US? :dunno: Because when was the last time a hurricane hit the eastern coast (like around North Carolina)? Was it Isabel in 2003? :unsure:
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I wonder what the chances are for this storm to impact the Jersey Shore or the NYC metro, provided that the storm intensifies into a hurricane.
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I wonder what the chances are for this storm to impact the Jersey Shore or the NYC metro, provided that the storm intensifies into a hurricane.
The storm already is a hurricane. ;) But you bring up a good point. When was the last time a hurricane hit your area, Molly? :unsure:
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It's awesome how a Tropical Depression went to a Hurricane in about 24 hours time.
I'm not really expecting the system to the east of Danielle to be as strong as it may be, because Danielle could be taking energy away from the following possibility.
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Models rapidly intensify this and I expect this to be our next D storm in time. Looks for now to be a fish
([url]http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_95.gif[/url])
I see that one little model prediction that takes Danielle toward Philly/NYC/NJ... I would be very surprised if it's right, as seeing every other model taking the system off toward Europe or extreme North Atlantic.
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All The Models were predicting Bill to take a European Path before so seeing how Danielle is predicted the same way the models are going to be wrong, look what bill did? Fringed the Cape Cod Coastline and Islands. (including my area Fall River)
So as always don't listen to the models until at least "a land mass" is close by.
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All The Models were predicting Bill to take a European Path before so seeing how Danielle is predicted the same way the models are going to be wrong, look what bill did? Fringed the Cape Cod Coastline and Islands. (including my area Fall River)
So as always don't listen to the models until at least "a land mass" is close by.
Like my uncle always says: Computer Models are just Computer Models. Mother Nature does what she wants to do. :P
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It looks like Danielle will have time and room to really become something big here. I guess the question is: will she hit the US? :dunno: Because when was the last time a hurricane hit the eastern coast (like around North Carolina)? Was it Isabel in 2003? :unsure:
Hurricane Ophelia hit the Carolina coast back in October 2005 iirc.
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I know that eye has to itching to come out soon.... :P
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/sloop-rb.html (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/sloop-rb.html)
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I wonder what the chances are for this storm to impact the Jersey Shore or the NYC metro, provided that the storm intensifies into a hurricane.
The storm already is a hurricane. ;) But you bring up a good point. When was the last time a hurricane hit your area, Molly? :unsure:
1999 when Hurricane Floyd destroyed several houses within a mile away from my old apartment. However, the main threat that affected us was the intense winds and flooding. I was only six though back then so I don't remember most the details. If this storm affects us, expect me to stay in the eye of the storm and ride this thing out..:P
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This girl is getting bigger and bigger the more she turns :happy: and is it me or is Danielle still moving due west? Shouldn't she jogging NW by now? Also I was on the accuweather forums and there are reports of winds up to 83mph and pressure 982mb so don't surprised to see this upgraded to 85mph in the next update in less than an hour. :yes:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-vis.html (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-vis.html)
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I wonder what the chances are for this storm to impact the Jersey Shore or the NYC metro, provided that the storm intensifies into a hurricane.
The storm already is a hurricane. ;) But you bring up a good point. When was the last time a hurricane hit your area, Molly? :unsure:
1999 when Hurricane Floyd destroyed several houses within a mile away from my old apartment. However, the main threat that affected us was the intense winds and flooding. I was only six though back then so I don't remember most the details. If this storm affects us, expect me to stay in the eye of the storm and ride this thing out..:P
I doubt it will affect your area, at least the worst impacts. BTW, can someone get in legal trouble if they stay even during mandatory evacuations?
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i expect the Cat 4 % to skyrocket
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This girl is getting bigger and bigger the more she turns :happy: and is it me or is Danielle still moving due west? Shouldn't she jogging NW by now? Also I was on the accuweather forums and there are reports of winds up to 83mph and pressure 982mb so don't surprised to see this upgraded to 85mph in the next update in less than an hour. :yes:
[url]http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-vis.html[/url] ([url]http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-vis.html[/url])
It's moving WNW according to one of the Tropical Updates this evening.
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i expect the Cat 4 % to skyrocket
I agree 50/50. If this hurricane doesn't start turning more northerly, there'll be more time that it can pick up warm water and strength. That would also cause a greater potential impact for the eastern U.S. Although, I kind of think that ridge will block a direct impact to the U.S., causing Danielle to drift more to the north, therefore losing strength.
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The eye is finally appearing!
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Hurricane Danielle is undergoing a rapid intensification process. It now has winds of 85 mph with a pressure of 982 mb. Unlike previous storms, the shear is low right now, so NHC expects Danielle to become the first major hurricane in about 48 hours. The track still has Danielle sitting east of Bermuda by the weekend.
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Hurricane Danielle is undergoing a rapid intensification process. It now has winds of 85 mph with a pressure of 982 mb. Unlike previous storms, the shear is low right now, so NHC expects Danielle to become the first major hurricane in about 48 hours. The track still has Danielle sitting east of Bermuda by the weekend.
Do you think Danielle could be a Cat 5 briefly before it hits more colder waters?
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Do you think Danielle could be a Cat 5 briefly before it hits more colder waters?
No, it's a very far stretch, and conditions have to be absolutely ideal for that to happen. Models are showing some shear will return over Danielle in two to three days. My guess is that it'll peak as a strong Category 3 hurricane.
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lll call it at a cat 3
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The winds were up to 100 mph as of 5 AM, but the rapid intensification process has suddenly stopped. Danielle has weakened to 80 mph at the 11 AM advisory. Some dry air was wrapping around the circulation earlier. See, it's not easy predicting the intensity of hurricanes at all.
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There's something I seriously don't understand about the conditions of the tropics this year. If we are phasing from neutral to La Nina phase then why is there still the persistent problem of dry and wind shear? Shouldn't that be close to nonexistent right about now considering the peak is in a few weeks. :hmm: :thinking:
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See, it's not easy predicting the intensity of hurricanes at all.
Did anybody say it was? :dunno:
Back to a TS for now
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Wow, the 18z GFS wants Danielle to slam New England as a possible Cat 2 heading into Labor Day Weekend. :blink: I know it's just one run and this is fantasy-land for the GFS, but it's interesting that it's throwing this solution out there still. :o
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If that's the case it will be a sight to see on my intellistar's Radar/Satellite!
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Danielle is back a tropical storm, but TWC's projected path still predicts it to become as strong as a Cat 3 hurricane. :blink: I didn't realize the storm would weaken so quickly though?
And, as Tavores asked, "If we are phasing from neutral to La Nina phase then why is there still the persistent problem of dry and wind shear? Shouldn't that be close to nonexistent right about now considering the peak is in a few weeks?" :dunno:
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I also have another question, I know that in situations like Danielle being it was forecasted to reach Cat 3 yesterday tend to be recurve because it is better influenced by the high in the atl. right now since mature hurricanes have higher storm tops so with Danielle weakening significantly more than was expected does this mean there's a possibility she could start moving more west than due north or NE? :dunno:
EDIT: Welcome back Hurricane Danielle (again) :P This is of 11pm advisory via NHC.
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Danielle is back to being a hurricane with winds of 75 mph as of the 11 PM advisory. The models have shifted the track a little more westward, so Bermuda and the East Coast must keep a close watch on this developing situation. Now, I'll try to answer the questions asked here:
Andy and Tavores, La Niņa is only one factor among many to consider. The dry air and wind shear can be found locally in patches and will never completely vanish. La Niņa conditions only means that it's more likely there will be more favorable conditions for hurricanes, but note that it's only a probability, not a guarantee.
Tavores, the possibility of it moving more west than due north is certainly there as it's weaker and would be steered more by the lower levels. However, it's not going to be a huge factor as it's still a strong enough storm to feel the upper level winds. Where the troughs and ridges are situated and how they change will be the bigger question going forward.
Martin, intensity is the most difficult forecasting problem in a tropical cyclone forecast, so I'm just reinforcing it with more emphasis. I don't mean to offend anyone. I'm glad you all are a more educated group as I've had to struggle explaining these things to the normal public.
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Danielle is back to being a hurricane with winds of 75 mph as of the 11 PM advisory. The models have shifted the track a little more westward, so Bermuda and the East Coast must keep a close watch on this developing situation. Now, I'll try to answer the questions asked here:
Andy and Tavores, La Niņa is only one factor among many to consider. The dry air and wind shear can be found locally in patches and will never completely vanish. La Niņa conditions only means that it's more likely there will be more favorable conditions for hurricanes, but note that it's only a probability, not a guarantee.
Tavores, the possibility of it moving more west than due north is certainly there as it's weaker and would be steered more by the lower levels. However, it's not going to be a huge factor as it's still a strong enough storm to feel the upper level winds. Where the troughs and ridges are situated and how they change will be the bigger question going forward.
Martin, intensity is the most difficult forecasting problem in a tropical cyclone forecast, so I'm just reinforcing it with more emphasis. I don't mean to offend anyone. I'm glad you all are a more educated group as I've had to struggle explaining these things to the normal public.
Thanks for the explanations Patrick, I was very curious about that possibility especially after what the 18z GFS showed that I posted.
EDIT: Not only the GFS, but there are other models wanting to jump the westward bandwagon causing a great divide to put it lightly.
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Birds Eye view on Danielle
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/natl/flash-rb.html (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/natl/flash-rb.html)
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Andy and Tavores, La Niņa is only one factor among many to consider. The dry air and wind shear can be found locally in patches and will never completely vanish. La Niņa conditions only means that it's more likely there will be more favorable conditions for hurricanes, but note that it's only a probability, not a guarantee.
SAL has been rather pesky this year as well for tropical development. Would you say any more than usual?
Martin, intensity is the most difficult forecasting problem in a tropical cyclone forecast, so I'm just reinforcing it with more emphasis. I don't mean to offend anyone. I'm glad you all are a more educated group as I've had to struggle explaining these things to the normal public.
Oh I thought someone had mentioned it and I missed it. Sorry bout that. Yes intensity is about as accurate as a blind man bowling. :P
Models have started an interesting trend. Some believe this trough over the east coast will weaken and thus take this system more westward. Still the majority keep it well out in the Atlantic. I have very little confidence in this system getting anywhere near the eastern seaboard as of now.
NOGAPS doing its thing....
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Updated Track on Danielle
(http://i.imwx.com/images/maps/tropical/map_tropprjpath06_ltst_5nhato_enus_600x405.jpg)
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Also 2 more interesting systems behind Danielle. I think Earl may form late today/early tomorrow.
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SAL has been rather pesky this year as well for tropical development. Would you say any more than usual?
There seemed to be a little more of it than usual to start the season, and we've had to slowly mix out that SAL over the past few months.
SAL stands for Saharan Air Layer if anyone else reading this is wondering. ;)
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AS OF 11PM EDT ADVISORY
Location: 22.4N 54.1W
Winds: 100 mph (Now a Cat 2)
Moving: NW at 17mph
Pressure: 975mb
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It appears very likely that Danielle will miss the coast although Bermuda will be a close call. However, the Northeast will get some decent surf, so they better watch for rip currents and beach erosion.
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Models remain hilariously interesting as always :P
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is it just me or does all the models want Danielle to hit the Titanic wreckage site?
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is it just me or does all the models want Danielle to hit the Titanic wreckage site?
Danielle might make a direct hit on the Titanic weckage site. :yes: According to TWC this evening, there is a research program designed to look for evidence from the wreck almost a century later, but I guess that program could be delayed because the projected path is literally taking Danielle right in the center of the site. :blink:
And speaking of the path of Danielle, I guess that cold front moving off the US East Coast is really doing some "direction" work because Danielle is now expected to make a big curve to the north and then east. This reminds me of Bill last year and I think Bertha a few years ago.
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Updated Track on Danielle
([url]http://i.imwx.com/images/maps/tropical/map_tropprjpath06_ltst_5nhato_enus_600x405.jpg[/url])
The titanic expedition crew might have to bail on Sunday or Monday.
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Danielle has become the first major hurricane of the season. A special 2 AM advisory shows that the winds are up to 120 mph, which makes it a Category 3 on the Saffir-Simpson scale. The pressure is down to 955 mb, and it will likely intensify even more over the next 24-48 hours before moving over colder waters with more wind shear and the inevitable extratropical transition to come.
Update: As of 5 AM, Danielle has made another big jump in intensity. It's now a Category 4 with winds of 135 mph, and the pressure dropped 9 mb in just 3 hours to 946 mb. Even though the track is going to curve safely away from Bermuda and the East Coast, Danielle is becoming a fierce hurricane.
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Looks like Danielle is going through the Eye Regeneration Process
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-rb.html (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-rb.html)
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Wow, I was surprised to see Danielle intensify into a Cat 4 overnight like it did since it was in some moderate shear yesterday and it wasn't looking that good on the southside.
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Winds remain at 135 mph as of 5 PM, and the pressure is 942 mb. A tropical storm watch is now in effect for Bermuda.
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Winds remain at 135 mph as of 5 PM, and the pressure is 942 mb. A tropical storm watch is now in effect for Bermuda.
TS watch? I thought they were just under a Hurricane Watch? Were they downgraded?
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TS watch? I thought they were just under a Hurricane Watch? Were they downgraded?
No, this is the first time a watch has been issued. Danielle is going to pass too far east for hurricane force winds to reach the island.
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Winds remain at 135 mph as of 5 PM, and the pressure is 942 mb. A tropical storm watch is now in effect for Bermuda.
TS watch? I thought they were just under a Hurricane Watch? Were they downgraded?
They way TWC hyped it you might have gotten that impression. Not sure why they chose to harp Bermuda for this. Guess they wanted to keep interest up for a fish storm.
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Winds remain at 135 mph as of 5 PM, and the pressure is 942 mb. A tropical storm watch is now in effect for Bermuda.
TS watch? I thought they were just under a Hurricane Watch? Were they downgraded?
They way TWC hyped it you might have gotten that impression. Not sure why they chose to harp Bermuda for this. Guess they wanted to keep interest up for a fish storm.
Hmm, that could be the case. I know I recall hearing Vivian saying they were under a Hurricane Watch during the tropical update for the 5pm advisory unless she misspoke. :unsure: :dunno:
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Danielle has got the weirdest projected path right now. :blink: She just can't make up her mind on which direction she wants to go. :P You think the storm is going to keep going one way and then it drastically changes direction. I'm guessing Danielle will die out before hitting any land in Canada or Greenland, though, right? :unsure:
(http://img837.imageshack.us/img837/1156/daniellenhc.gif)
(http://img837.imageshack.us/img837/2821/danielletwc.jpg)
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Winds remain at 135 mph as of 5 PM, and the pressure is 942 mb. A tropical storm watch is now in effect for Bermuda.
TS watch? I thought they were just under a Hurricane Watch? Were they downgraded?
They way TWC hyped it you might have gotten that impression. Not sure why they chose to harp Bermuda for this. Guess they wanted to keep interest up for a fish storm.
Hmm, that could be the case. I know I recall hearing Vivian saying they were under a Hurricane Watch during the tropical update for the 5pm advisory unless she misspoke. :unsure: :dunno:
She could have misspoken. I would think there would only be TS Alerts for Bermuda, taking into consideration that the west side of the storm is usually the weakest part. (According to Dr. Knabb)
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There was only a tropical storm watch for Bermuda and nothing else, so someone indeed misspoke. That watch has been discontinued now. Danielle has weakened to winds of 105 mph, and it will become extratropical in about 2-3 days.
Danielle has got the weirdest projected path right now. :blink: She just can't make up her mind on which direction she wants to go. :P You think the storm is going to keep going one way and then it drastically changes direction. I'm guessing Danielle will die out before hitting any land in Canada or Greenland, though, right? :unsure:
That forecast track tells me that the hurricane will turn into a powerful mid-latitude storm that will merge into an upper level low (note the westward retrograde at the end). Canada and Greenland will have to deal with this storm in some way. Storms just don't die right away when they become extratropical.
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According to the latest projected paths, Danielle will no longer be making its big turn westward. :no: I guess some weather system that was going to re-direct it will no longer be doing so. Too bad, too, because I wanted to see where it would finally end up, either in Canada or Greenland. :(
Also, is Danielle still likely to hit the Titanic wreckage site? :dunno:
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Danielle is barely a hurricane with winds of 75 mph, and it's losing tropical characteristics right now. Expect the last advisory to be issued for it later tonight.
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Danielle is barely a hurricane with winds of 75 mph, and it's losing tropical characteristics right now. Expect the last advisory to be issued for it later tonight.
Patrick, what does it mean when a tropical cyclone is considered "extratropical" or "post-tropical"? :dunno: Because on one of its projected paths a few days ago, NOAA projected Danielle to become an extratropical hurricane. How is this possible? :unsure:
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Patrick, what does it mean when a tropical cyclone is considered "extratropical" or "post-tropical"? :dunno: Because on one of its projected paths a few days ago, NOAA projected Danielle to become an extratropical hurricane. How is this possible? :unsure:
Warning: This is really long scientific explanation, so here it goes!
There are two types of cyclones in the world by structure. Extratropical storms are asymmetric and have fronts, so these cyclones are dictated by temperature differences and wind shear in their background environments. Yes, every time you see a low with a warm front and cold front in the mid-latitudes, it's an extratropical cyclone. Tropical storms are symmetric and don't have any fronts. They're able to form in areas of no wind shear and no temperature difference in their background environments. We can go further and classify by the temperature as to whether the cyclones are cold-core or warm-core. Upper-level ridges are overhead of warm-core storms, and upper-level troughs are overhead of cold-core storms. A phase space showing the four possibilities of cyclones types (asymmetric vs. symmetric and warm-core vs. cold-core) was made by a Florida State researcher a couple decades ago to help us understand the spectrum of behavior and structure available for storms.
It's perfectly okay for cyclones to transition from one phase to another in that phase space, and Danielle is undergoing an extratropical transition as we speak. It's transitioning from a warm-core symmetric (tropical) cyclone to a cold-core asymmetric (extratropical) cyclone. Structurally, it's making a major change. It'll lose the overhead upper-level ridge, and you'll soon see a cold front and a warm front form, which means you'll have temperature differences. A stronger temperature difference is directly related to stronger vertical wind shear, so the increasing shear will tear up the symmetry of the storm and turn it into the comma-like storms we know. It'll soon merge into the upper-level trough that's helping to steer the storm out to sea. It may produce hurricane force winds of 74 mph or greater, but it won't look anything like a hurricane as it will have lost all its tropical characteristics. NHC is then forced to declare it extratropical and cease advisories at that point.
Hope this helps, Andy! Maybe I should bring back my thread where anyone can ask any kind of weather question to me, and I would try my best to answer them. :P
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Patrick, what does it mean when a tropical cyclone is considered "extratropical" or "post-tropical"? :dunno: Because on one of its projected paths a few days ago, NOAA projected Danielle to become an extratropical hurricane. How is this possible? :unsure:
Maybe I should bring back my thread where anyone can ask any kind of weather question to me, and I would try my best to answer them. :P
That wouldn't be a bad idea Patrick. It's nice to have a meteorologist at these forums to answer questions like these. :D
Long explanation, but it made sense and answered my question perfectly. Thanks. :biggrin:
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That wouldn't be a bad idea Patrick. It's nice to have a meteorologist at these forums to answer questions like these. :D
Long explanation, but it made sense and answered my question perfectly. Thanks. :biggrin:
Yeah, sorry about the length. If you had a college lecture on this concept, you'd understand why I couldn't shorten it much. There already is a thread for taking weather questions that Gary created way back when I joined here, which I'll bump up for you all this morning to see.
Time to close activity on this thread as Danielle is no longer tropical, and NHC is finished with this storm.