Hurricane Earl- Storm Train

[TWCToday]

So what makes TWC's hurricane track exclusive? 

Its pretty.

I expect Earl to possible reach Cat5. Its trying hard. A lot of dry air trying to protect the east coast though. Folks in OBX getting nervous.

[wxmediafan]

It amazes me that something so beautiful can be so deadly.  This is a classic major hurricane; a beauty on RADAR.

Wow, Earl is quite a beauty. This storm has gone beserk though, as far as intensity. Already a major hurricane, TWC (or I guess I should say the NHC) has this storm with winds as high as 145 mph by Wednesday afternoon. Now can anyone identify what is causing this storm to brush the coast and not make a direct hit? Is it a ridge of high or low pressure? Because, although it may lose some intensity, direct landfall would be catastropic for the East Coast.

There is a trough of low pressure with a cold front that is pushing eastward across the US that is going to stear Earl away from the US coastline.  However, if the front moves slower than expected, that could bring the storm closer to the coastline.  I believe this is what is keeping Earl from hitting the US.  Either way, looks like the weather is going to get dicey on the eastern seaboard within the next couple days.

[TWCToday]

Interesting ...

[phw115wvwx]

How often does the NHC do hurricane advisories for a major tropical cyclone like this one? I know for less powerful ones they do advisories at 11 AM, 5 PM, 11 PM, and 5 AM ( ).

When there are no watches or warnings, NHC uses 0300, 0900, 1500, and 2100 UTC.  That converts to 5 AM, 11 AM, 5 PM and 11 PM EDT, but you'll see that change an hour back when we go to EST as UTC never changes.  When a watch is issued, NHC will do advisories every 3 hours instead of 6.  Finally, when a warning is issued, NHC will do advisories every 2 hours and acquire position estimates every hour of the storm.

[gt1racerlHDl]

The Early model run of HWFI scares me

[Mike M]

Do you think watches or warnings will be issued for NJ?

[toxictwister00]

Do you think watches or warnings will be issued for NJ?

If they do, they'll probably be tropical storm watches/warnings

[WeatherWitness]

AS OF 11 PM EDT
Winds: 135 mph (CAT 4)
Moving: NW 15 mph
Pressure: 940 mb

Yeah, not much has changed in the past three hours.

Below is an informative graphic from weather.com:


Also, here is a graphic from TWC's twitter showing a zoom-in of Earl's projected path. I thought this was interesting.



P.S. I edited this post to add the zoomed-in projected path. The meteorologist information previously here has been moved to the "General TWC Discussion" thread.

[TWCToday]

00z models are back west again. Will have to see if NHC moves west at 5am

[TWCToday]

I am under a Hurricane Watch

[gt1racerlHDl]

Good luck martin and stay safe

one model NGPS has earl's eye going right over Fall River, MA

[gt1racerlHDl]

Fall River update on Earl

Customized Weather Update: Fall River, MA Hurricane Earl

[Trevor]

Hurricane WARNING now in effect for the Outer Banks. This could be a big one, folks. I see Storm Alert in the near future, especially with warnings now up.

[TWCToday]

Hurricane WARNING now in effect for the Outer Banks. This could be a big one, folks. I see Storm Alert in the near future, especially with warnings now up.

If it was making a direct hit yea. Still unclear on that

[WeatherWitness]

To me, Earl's path has been shifted eastward from last night. I don't see a need for a Storm Alert, although I know the effects are going to be massive for the east coast (such as wind and rain).