TWC Today Forums
Weather Discussion => Hazardous Weather => Hurricane Central => Topic started by: TWCToday on August 23, 2010, 03:52:03 PM
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African storm train is in full swing!
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Things are in full swing indeed my friend! I knew this was gonna be watched, it came off the coast looking big and strong yesterday. We might have an "Earl" if it keeps looking healthy like this. 40% chance of development via NHC. :)
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE OFF THE
AFRICAN COAST IS SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE...AND IT COULD BECOME A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD NEAR 15 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
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60% chance = CODE RED!!! I'm gonna be a betting man and call for a TD by the 5am update. It's still looking healthy on satellite. :yes:
1. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED
ABOUT 350 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS CONTINUES TO
SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...60
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
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Gee with the East Coast Trough moving out it leaves the Atlantic Wide open for this "Earl" Storm.
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Now things start to get active...right on schedule! :thrilled:
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Earl sounds like an ominous name....like a storm that would do a lot of damage. Just sayin.
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Earl sounds like an ominous name....like a storm that would do a lot of damage. Just sayin.
I agree, it's a rough sounding name.
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I always think of the tropics as a light switch. Mother Nature may have just flipped the switch on a few days ago. This looks likely to develop into something over the next day or two.
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Agreed. And there are even more waves coming through africa.
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WNW movement already. Kinda looking like another fishy
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90% and we got Earl!
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE AUG 24 2010
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
DANIELLE...LOCATED ABOUT 1110 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.
1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING ABOUT 100 MILES
SOUTH OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...AND IT APPEARS THAT A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD BE FORMING. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES... ADVISORIES
ON THIS SYSTEM COULD BE INITIATED AS EARLY AS LATER THIS MORNING.
THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT NEAR 15 MPH. LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS AND
STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS TODAY...AND INTERESTS IN THOSE ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BERG
NNNN
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I'm somewhat surprised this hasn't been named TD #7 yet, it's been sitting at a 90% chance for several hours now.
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I'm somewhat surprised this hasn't been named TD #7 yet, it's been sitting at a 90% chance for several hours now.
Quite a few people including many mets agree.
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Expected to be Earl by the 5pm adv.
(http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT07/refresh/AL0710W5_NL_sm2+gif/143812W5_NL_sm.gif)
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Hmm, this one doesn't look like it'll be a fish storm so far, in fact it appears it might hit FL or the SE coast if we go beyond that track. Also that track kinda looks similar to Andrew except I think it was further north in track a little in the 5 day range of where this TD will be. It's interesting because it looks like this will rapidly develop to hurricane status like Danielle once it gets passed that dry air.
EDIT: Looking at it again, it might actually be getting ready to recurve north near the end of that 5 day track.
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Tropical Depression 7 has formed following Danielle as of the 11 AM advisory. It is expected to become Earl later today or Thursday. This system has an higher risk of making landfall in the U.S. than Danielle due to the ridge moving on off. This is going to be very interesting! :yes:
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Tropical Depression 7 has formed following Danielle as of the 11 AM advisory. It is expected to become Earl later today or Thursday. This system has an higher risk of making landfall in the U.S. than Danielle due to the ridge moving on off. This is going to be very interesting! :yes:
NHC's forecast track for it is definitely more ominous to me than Danielle's track.
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Tropical Depression 7 is now Tropical Storm Earl as of the 5pm Advisory
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Merging topics... 96L became TD Earl. Keep an eye on active discussions before making a new topic in the future
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The projected path of Tropical Storm Earl looks like it might have some impact to the United States! :o I know it's far out, but possibly Florida or the east coast could get a hit if the storm does not turn drastically north.
(http://img831.imageshack.us/img831/2162/tsearlnoaa.gif)
(http://img202.imageshack.us/img202/4544/tsearltwc.jpg)
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Models have been getting Earl caught up in the ridge but the latest runnings are showing that scenario become increasingly unlikely.
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Here we go folks...
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Models have been getting Earl caught up in the ridge but the latest runnings are showing that scenario become increasingly unlikely.
I agree with this, I don't believe that will be the case, but we'll have to see how things pan out over the next several days. :yes:
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Winds remains at 40 mph for Tropical Storm Earl as of 11 PM, but it should become a hurricane in a couple days as upper level conditions gradually improve. I saw model runs way out in the future that have Earl miss the East Coast, but it appeared to get closer than Danielle is expected to reach. We'll have to wait and see.
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I would expect it to impact the east coast US as the ridge moves on, but maybe other factors come into play.
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50/50 chance at this point. Could hit US, could be a fish storm. IMO
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I hope it hits SC as a weak low or tropical storm. We need some Rain!
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If it hits SC it seems unlikely it would be a tropical storm or weaker than that. Easily a hurricane, maybe as strong as cat 3. However that is a far stretch. For now.
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If it hits SC it seems unlikely it would be a tropical storm or weaker than that. Easily a hurricane, maybe as strong as cat 3. However that is a far stretch. For now.
I know it is too much of a stretch but, for now as you said it doesn't look that likely unless something changes with what steers it.
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From the projected paths, Earl is also likely to become a major hurricane. :yes: As of 11 PM EDT, winds have increased slightly to 45 mph. By Tuesday evening, though, it looks like Earl may become a major hurricane. I wonder if it will make a drastic turn to the north or head for the US East Coast. :thinking:
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Right now I say drastic turn to the north.
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Some models have exploded this storms intensity but we all know how accurate intensity forecasts are. For now my best guess would be a curve hitting Bermuda or going in between but its all dependent on this ridge. Its certainly one storm folks will want to stay on top of
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Tropical Storm Earl is still at 45 mph winds as of 5 AM, but NHC is expecting it to intensify into a strong hurricane as it continues westward over the next couple days. The track does show a curving to the north that would suggest it may miss the East Coast, but Bermuda is certainly at greater risk with this one.
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I call fish even for Bermuda
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Well more of a westward shift today
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Well more of a westward shift today
Honestly I think the NHC is curving Earl north too quickly and I still don't see it getting to hurricane status as early as tomorrow morning as they're indicating.
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I think it was up to 60 about 6 AM. Maybe I was mistaking, I just quickly glanced at the TV.
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I think it was up to 60 about 6 AM. Maybe I was mistaking, I just quickly glanced at the TV.
It is, but it's poorly organized if you ask me. Anyways here's my thinking on Earl. (subject to change)
EDIT: Has anyone noticed that Earl looks like not only is it moving quickly due west, but it also seems to be wobbling SW as well?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-vis.html (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-vis.html)
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Here are the latest projected paths for Earl (from TWC and the NHC). If it continues to turn north and then northeast as it comes closer and closer to the US East Coast, then the East Coast will likely just receive the outer rain bands of the storm. But the NHC projected path looks a little ominous; what if it doesn't keep turning north and makes a direct hit on North Carolina and Virginia as a MAJOR hurricane. :o :thinking:
(http://img823.imageshack.us/img823/825/earlpp.gif)
(http://img823.imageshack.us/img823/633/earlpptwc.jpg)
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At this point, it's way too early to start making landfall projections of something that is still a tropical storm and well east of the Lesser Antilles.
If you look at the spaghetti models, all of them project Earl will recurve back into the Atlantic due to the strong ridge of high pressure over the northeast, much like Danielle is doing now, albeit the only difference is Earl will be closer to the coast than Danielle.
(http://img691.imageshack.us/img691/2281/storm07.gif)
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Honestly I think the NHC is curving Earl north too quickly and I still don't see it getting to hurricane status as early as tomorrow morning as they're indicating.
They have shifted the track slightly but I see no indication with models, history and other conditions at the moment that would prevent the curve. I am eager to see the 00z models late tonight
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Are those spaghetti models available on NOAA's website? :dunno: They're a lot better than the TWC ones; I neglected to look at them. :thinking:
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Are those spaghetti models available on NOAA's website? :dunno: They're a lot better than the TWC ones; I neglected to look at them. :thinking:
The GFS Esembles? Yes I believe so.
Also of note there is a cold front approaching areas on the east coast around Friday. A further buffer perhaps
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Are those spaghetti models available on NOAA's website? :dunno: They're a lot better than the TWC ones; I neglected to look at them. :thinking:
Got them from here: http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots.html (http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots.html)
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I think it was up to 60 about 6 AM. Maybe I was mistaking, I just quickly glanced at the TV.
It is, but it's poorly organized if you ask me. Anyways here's my thinking on Earl. (subject to change)
EDIT: Has anyone noticed that Earl looks like not only is it moving quickly due west, but it also seems to be wobbling SW as well?
[url]http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-vis.html[/url] ([url]http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-vis.html[/url])
Yeah, I noticed that too. It's been wobbling SW, then NW, SW, NW. Something there is pushing Earl around. Maybe that's why it's slowly intensifying, rather than rapidly. :thinking:
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i know that this is in the near future but here's the water temperatures in the central Atlantic
http://www.nodc.noaa.gov/dsdt/cwtg/catl.html (http://www.nodc.noaa.gov/dsdt/cwtg/catl.html)
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Looks like the waters could support a strong hurricane all the way up to Maryland, and possibly north into DE/PA.
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Looks like the waters could support a strong hurricane all the way up to Maryland, and possibly north into DE/PA.
Temps are in the mid 70s to low 80s from the Delmarva peninsula to MA, so these warm water temps are enough to support a strong hurricane as it heads closer to the coastline.
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Tropical Storm Earl has intensified to winds of 60 mph. Its track has been shifted way more westward and threatens the Leeward Islands and eventually the East Coast. Furthermore, the storm has been fighting wind shear the last day or so, which is why it hasn't strengthened much. That's going to change as the shear is expected to relax around it, which means it'll head for hurricane and perhaps major hurricane status in the near future. Tropical storm watches and warnings have been issued for some of the Leeward islands. I'm starting to worry about this one.
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yea me to i think this one will hit as a big hurricane remember isabel hit north carolina as a cat 2 this one has the potential to be a strong 3 or a weak 4 defiantly not one to play with i would cautiously watch it and keep in the back of your mind...early part of the week start making some decisions on what you may need to do to prepare....think about what you will need to do if you were asked to evacuate what are your routs going to be or if you are already planning to stick it out what will you need batteries for flashlights if your power goes out plenty of canned goods and anything you would potentially need for atleast a weeks time ....atleast start thinking about these things it could still go out to sea but looking less likely that it will go out to sea and more likely it will strike the east cost
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yea me to i think this one will hit as a big hurricane remember isabel hit north carolina as a cat 2 this one has the potential to be a strong 3 or a weak 4 defiantly not one to play with i would cautiously watch it and keep in the back of your mind...early part of the week start making some decisions on what you may need to do to prepare....think about what you will need to do if you were asked to evacuate what are your routs going to be or if you are already planning to stick it out what will you need batteries for flashlights if your power goes out plenty of canned goods and anything you would potentially need for atleast a weeks time ....atleast start thinking about these things it could still go out to sea but looking less likely that it will go out to sea and more likely it will strike the east cost
Thank god that stormed weakened right before it hit. I wouldn't have had a house!
Canadian
http://img831.imageshack.us/img831/1050/153118579.gif (http://img831.imageshack.us/img831/1050/153118579.gif)
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i know what you mean martin but you may not be so luckey this time brcause all of the models have been shifting farther west with each new forecast if this trend keeps up then by this time tomorrow night then models will be showing a landfall i just dont think this will be a fish storm at all because its in question according to the nws if the front will be a front at all when it gets to were earl will be so its looking more likely a major landfall
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Early 00z models - It's pretty obvious a few of the models are very confused with what could happen with Earl considering they're zig zagging all over the place! :P
(http://forums.accuweather.com/uploads/post-17639-1283051209.gif)
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The zig-zag models are funny. I also like the orange model that just has to be different and track to the south. :P
These models and the current projected paths are providing for extreme suspense, though. The just stop right when they are very near the US, so it's hard to tell if Earl will turn north and east away from the US or make direct landfall as what will likely be a major hurricane on the east coast.
EDIT: Areas previously under Tropical Storm Watches/Warnings (the Leeward islands and Puerto Rico) are now under HURRICANE watches and warnings. Here is the latest projected path:
(http://img59.imageshack.us/img59/1615/030015wsm.gif)
(Tavores...I'm sorry I beat you to it. :( :P)
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The zig-zag models are funny. I also like the orange model that just has to be different and track to the south. :P
These models and the current projected paths are providing for extreme suspense, though. The just stop right when they are very near the US, so it's hard to tell if Earl will turn north and east away from the US or make direct landfall as what will likely be a major hurricane on the east coast.
EDIT: Areas previously under Tropical Storm Watches/Warnings (the Leeward islands and Puerto Rico) are now under HURRICANE watches and warnings. Here is the latest projected path:
([url]http://img59.imageshack.us/img59/1615/030015wsm.gif[/url])
(Tavores...I'm sorry I beat you to it. :( :P)
That's ok, I found a link to how the forecast track has shifted west over the past few days.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2010/graphics/al07/loop_5W.shtml (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2010/graphics/al07/loop_5W.shtml)
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2010/graphics/al07/loop_5W.shtml (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2010/graphics/al07/loop_5W.shtml)
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Early 00z models - It's pretty obvious a few of the models are very confused with what could happen with Earl considering they're zig zagging all over the place! :P
([url]http://forums.accuweather.com/uploads/post-17639-1283051209.gif[/url])
There's always that one model that wanders off...
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New Track - It's getting awfully close....
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Seems like the models want earl to hit Massachusetts, figures :rolleyes:
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Seems like the models want earl to hit Massachusetts, figures :rolleyes:
Well there have been a couple that wanted Earl to hit NC then Cape Cod, but that's also where all the models diverge from eachother on where he goes.
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I still wouldn't count on the US taking at least a direct hit...yet, definitely effects from the storm look very possible though.
(https://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_07.gif)
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Earl is now a hurricane! As of 8 AM EDT (a while ago, actually), sustained winds are at 75 mph.
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Updated 11am track via NHC There's a 20% chance of tropical storm force winds will be felt from NC to MA from Earl, but a 0% chance of hurricane force winds.
EDIT: Unless the NHC expects that sharp turn right to come near the end of their 5 day cone, a lot of folks are gonna be boarding up this weekend.
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it's kind of weird how they are projecting Earl to Hit the Southern New England Coastline.
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I hope it takes this track:
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it's kind of weird how they are projecting Earl to Hit the Southern New England Coastline.
yeah that is weird or the southern jersey coast
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its defiantly going to be interesting some of the models have shifted closer to the coast line while others got farther away the hurricane hunter air craft has found winds of 81 mph so likely at 5 pm the winds will be increased to 80 mph it will be more interesting to see what the path says to :o
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up to 85mph as of 5pm adv also
(http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT07/refresh/AL0710W5_NL_sm2+gif/204614W5_NL_sm.gif)
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i say NC you are in the clear but new england and new york if the top of that path shifts left... wich i dont see right now :thumbsup: but if it does then you have something to worry :no: about this could pull a Gloria but we have to wait and see how long first it takes it to turn nw right now its wnw :hmm:
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by tomorrow morn it could show a new england landfall
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5pm Updated Track
(http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT07/refresh/AL0710W5_NL_sm2+gif/204614W5_NL_sm.gif)
(http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT07/refresh/AL0710_PROB34_F120_sm2+gif/204614.gif)
(http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT07/refresh/AL0710_PROB64_F120_sm2+gif/204614.gif)
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From the latest projected path, it looks like Earl won't be making any kind of direct landfall in the US. :no: Its outer bands and wind effects will be felt by a lot of New England states, though. This storm is expected to become a major cat 3 hurricane, with winds of 130 mph by Tuesday afternoon. Probably hard to believe since it once was a tropical storm struggling to stay alive.
Here is TWC's projected path:
(http://img255.imageshack.us/img255/6073/earl829.jpg)
And, wow, I can't believe this topic is still called Tropical Storm Earl. :blink:
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thats true but something is not right check out these model runs compared to the nhc track http://tc.met.psu.edu/ (http://tc.met.psu.edu/) this shows the gfs and the hwrf model shows a very close to new england landfall but the nhc track says no :unsure:
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With the way the track is now shifting eastward, I actually feel the entire East Coast will be spared. Cape Cod may have some interesting weather though.
And, wow, I can't believe this topic is still called Tropical Storm Earl. :blink:
It's now fixed. Only the person who starts the topic or an admin can change the topic titles to stand for everyone.
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With the way the track is now shifting eastward, I actually feel the entire East Coast will be spared. Cape Cod may have some interesting weather though.
And, wow, I can't believe this topic is still called Tropical Storm Earl. :blink:
It's now fixed. Only the person who starts the topic or an admin can change the topic titles to stand for everyone.
Don't Forget Fall River, because they will be fringed too :P
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i guess i could agree there with you its still a wait and see game though if you know what i mean we will find out what happens at 8 and 11 and have another update then
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LOL I just had to do it:
"Storm Train, storm train...(buhda buh buh buh buh buh buh buh buh buh buh buh buh ba!) STORMS ALL OVER THE WORLD (storms all over the world) STORMS ALL OVER THE WORLD!"
Original idea from TSOP.
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LOL I just had to do it:
"Storm Train, storm train...(buhda buh buh buh buh buh buh buh buh buh buh buh buh ba!) STORMS ALL OVER THE WORLD (storms all over the world) STORMS ALL OVER THE WORLD!"
Original idea from TSOP.
Ironically enough, their music was used on TWC this year
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LATEST Information from the 11 PM EDT Advisory
Location: 17.9N 61.1W
Winds: 100 mph (Now a CAT 2)
Moving: WNW at 15 mph
Pressure: 971 mb
Still looks like it will barely brush the New England coast, but this storm is now quickly intensifying. :yes:
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With the way the track is now shifting eastward, I actually feel the entire East Coast will be spared. Cape Cod may have some interesting weather though.
And, wow, I can't believe this topic is still called Tropical Storm Earl. :blink:
It's now fixed. Only the person who starts the topic or an admin can change the topic titles to stand for everyone.
Whoops sorry about that
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00Z GFS with new recon data :pirate:
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Seems like a Coastal travesty instead of a fish storm.
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Earl up to 120MPH Cat 3 960mb Also showing up on my 7day
New Bedford Intellistar Local Forecast: Earl On The Move and shows up on 7 day outlook (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SzRPfuGCxmY#)
(http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT07/refresh/AL0710T_sm2+gif/144614P_sm.gif)
(http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT07/refresh/AL0710_PROB64_F120_sm2+gif/144614.gif)
(http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT07/refresh/AL0710_PROB34_F120_sm2+gif/144614.gif)
(http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT07/refresh/AL0710W5_NL_sm2+gif/144614W5_NL_sm.gif)
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Earl is now up to 125 mph as of a special 1 PM advisory, and the pressure is down to 955 mb. NHC expects it to reach Category 4 intensity soon. The track shifted again, and the New England states appear to have the biggest risk right now out of the East Coast for any direct hit from this hurricane.
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Wow, I'm impressed with how well Earl has gotten itself together since I last saw it last night. It's becoming well symmetrical and the eye is nice and round. :yes:
EDIT: From the link I posted, it look like Earl is wobbling back due west again. :unsure:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-vis.html (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-vis.html)
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Earl now Category 4 135MPH 948mb WNW 15MPH as of 5pm EDT Adv 6pm AST
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-rb.html (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-rb.html)
(http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT07/refresh/AL0710_PROB34_F120_sm2+gif/204613.gif)
(http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT07/refresh/AL0710_PROB64_F120_sm2+gif/204613.gif)
(http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT07/refresh/AL0710T_sm2+gif/204613P_sm.gif)
(http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT07/refresh/AL0710W5_NL_sm2+gif/204613W5_NL_sm.gif)
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Here's a radar image of Earl
(http://forums.accuweather.com/uploads/post-13697-1283204982.png)
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Wow, Earl is quite a beauty. :thrilled: This storm has gone beserk though, as far as intensity. Already a major hurricane, TWC (or I guess I should say the NHC) has this storm with winds as high as 145 mph by Wednesday afternoon. :o Now can anyone identify what is causing this storm to brush the coast and not make a direct hit? Is it a ridge of high or low pressure? :dunno: Because, although it may lose some intensity, direct landfall would be catastropic for the East Coast.
(http://img830.imageshack.us/img830/827/earlpp830.jpg)
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Basically the same numbers as the 8pm adv
135MPH
938mb
WNW 14mph
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How often does the NHC do hurricane advisories for a major tropical cyclone like this one? :dunno: I know for less powerful ones they do advisories at 11 AM, 5 PM, 11 PM, and 5 AM ( :unsure:).
Anyways, Earl's strength and projected path hasn't really changed much since earlier this evening. :no:
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So what makes TWC's hurricane track exclusive?
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So what makes TWC's hurricane track exclusive?
Its pretty.
I expect Earl to possible reach Cat5. Its trying hard. A lot of dry air trying to protect the east coast though. Folks in OBX getting nervous.
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It amazes me that something so beautiful can be so deadly. This is a classic major hurricane; a beauty on RADAR.
Wow, Earl is quite a beauty. :thrilled: This storm has gone beserk though, as far as intensity. Already a major hurricane, TWC (or I guess I should say the NHC) has this storm with winds as high as 145 mph by Wednesday afternoon. :o Now can anyone identify what is causing this storm to brush the coast and not make a direct hit? Is it a ridge of high or low pressure? :dunno: Because, although it may lose some intensity, direct landfall would be catastropic for the East Coast.
([url]http://img830.imageshack.us/img830/827/earlpp830.jpg[/url])
There is a trough of low pressure with a cold front that is pushing eastward across the US that is going to stear Earl away from the US coastline. However, if the front moves slower than expected, that could bring the storm closer to the coastline. I believe this is what is keeping Earl from hitting the US. Either way, looks like the weather is going to get dicey on the eastern seaboard within the next couple days.
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Interesting ...
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How often does the NHC do hurricane advisories for a major tropical cyclone like this one? :dunno: I know for less powerful ones they do advisories at 11 AM, 5 PM, 11 PM, and 5 AM ( :unsure:).
When there are no watches or warnings, NHC uses 0300, 0900, 1500, and 2100 UTC. That converts to 5 AM, 11 AM, 5 PM and 11 PM EDT, but you'll see that change an hour back when we go to EST as UTC never changes. When a watch is issued, NHC will do advisories every 3 hours instead of 6. Finally, when a warning is issued, NHC will do advisories every 2 hours and acquire position estimates every hour of the storm.
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The Early model run of HWFI scares me
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Do you think watches or warnings will be issued for NJ?
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Do you think watches or warnings will be issued for NJ?
If they do, they'll probably be tropical storm watches/warnings
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AS OF 11 PM EDT
Winds: 135 mph (CAT 4)
Moving: NW 15 mph
Pressure: 940 mb
Yeah, not much has changed in the past three hours. :no:
Below is an informative graphic from weather.com:
(http://img193.imageshack.us/img193/6856/earlthreat083110600x405.jpg)
Also, here is a graphic from TWC's twitter showing a zoom-in of Earl's projected path. I thought this was interesting. :yes:
(http://img269.imageshack.us/img269/9769/earlzoom.jpg)
P.S. I edited this post to add the zoomed-in projected path. The meteorologist information previously here has been moved to the "General TWC Discussion" thread.
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00z models are back west again. Will have to see if NHC moves west at 5am
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I am under a Hurricane Watch
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Good luck martin and stay safe
one model NGPS has earl's eye going right over Fall River, MA
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Fall River update on Earl
Customized Weather Update: Fall River, MA Hurricane Earl (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ww2EKrLMygo#)
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Hurricane WARNING now in effect for the Outer Banks. This could be a big one, folks. I see Storm Alert in the near future, especially with warnings now up.
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Hurricane WARNING now in effect for the Outer Banks. This could be a big one, folks. I see Storm Alert in the near future, especially with warnings now up.
If it was making a direct hit yea. Still unclear on that
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To me, Earl's path has been shifted eastward from last night. I don't see a need for a Storm Alert, although I know the effects are going to be massive for the east coast (such as wind and rain). :yes:
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Eh, it doesn't look like I'll be getting much out of this. If only that cold front wasn't there to push it eastward. <_<
I'm just west of the tropical storm warning area.
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Like I said earlier, Cape Hatteras and Cape Cod are the two places that will most be affected along the East Coast. Hurricane Earl is back to 135 mph winds again after briefly weakening earlier.
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Like I said earlier, Cape Hatteras and Cape Cod are the two places that will most be affected along the East Coast. Hurricane Earl is back to 135 mph winds again after briefly weakening earlier.
And were not done yet, we could have our H storm hot on her heels right behind Gaston. ;)
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According to CNN's Chad Myers, aircraft reported wind speed of 177 mph in the eyewall of the storm, which means winds of at least 145 mph at the surface now, although not officially in the advisories. It will be interesting to see wind speeds are officially upgraded at the 11:00 PM EDT advisory, or with a special statement sooner.
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According to CNN's Chad Myers, aircraft reported wind speed of 177 mph in the eyewall of the storm, which means winds of at least 145 mph at the surface now, although not officially in the advisories. It will be interesting to see wind speeds are officially upgraded at the 11:00 PM EDT advisory, or with a special statement sooner.
I also heard a pressure of 929mb was recorded, I think the 8pm advisory downplayed how strong Earl really is right now.
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Yes, Ed Rappaport, deputy director of NHC, just reported on TWC a pressure of 932mb from the aircraft. Pressure at advisory was 941mb.
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AS OF 11 PM EDT: Earl's winds have INCREASED to 140 mph. His pressure has DROPPED to 932 mb. This is indeed a very dangerous hurricane. :yes:
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Fall River, MA under a Hurricane Watch issued at 5am EDT
Also Earl on Southeast Radar/Satellite
Hurricane Earl Local Forecast #1 New Bedford, MA Satellite Forecast (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bq_cicjHoIw#)
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I don't think Earl will prompt Storm Alert, but TWC will most likely go into a Hurricane Alex-like state. Locals at :28 and :58, "red" mode will continue.
I doesn't look like the east coast will get much more than some storm surge, spotty flash flooding, beach erosion, and minor structural damage to homes.
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According to the latest advisory, Earl is now moving almost due North (355 degrees, 5 degrees west of due north). Looks like NC will be spared from the main brunt of the storm, still may be looking at hurricane force winds on the coast however.
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Hurricane Warning for Fall River, MA as of the 11am adv also for along The Cape Cod Canal.
Videos of the hurricane watch and warning tabs
Hurricane Earl Local Forecast #5 Hurricane Watch New Bedford, MA (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mJl0pP0CjQI#)
Hurricane Earl Local Forecast #6 New Bedford, MA Hurricane Warning (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wEVXEuxgTGA#)
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Hurricane Earl has weakened to 125 mph, so it's a Category 3 now at 2 PM. Hurricane warnings remain in effect for most of the NC and MA shorelines.
Update: The winds have decreased even more to 115 mph at 5 PM. Earl won't be a major hurricane much longer as it's going to continue weakening with the shear increasing from the approaching cold front and upper-level trough.
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Down here on the Outer Banks. Conditions rapidly going downhill
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Is this storm going to be all about the "effects" (i.e. heavy rain, strong winds, etc) rather than a direct landfall situation? :dunno: Because the cones on the Projected Paths are not showing Earl to hit ANY land until it reaches Rhode Island. Are these cones too "skinny" to depict the size of the hurricane, though? If not, I don't see why NC is under a Hurricane warning. :blink:
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At one point earlier they had us in for tropical storm conditions possible with winds up to 30 mph, but they have since changed it to just a few showers. Why must these storms always pull away from me? :angry:
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I'm under a tropical storm warning but that may subjectto change if Earl keeps weakening the way it is now.
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I think Earl is weaking and has a slightly eastward track, so effects for some of you may now be at a minimum or not at all. Still, though, I guess we have a powerful storm brining powerful conditions to NC.
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I think Earl is weaking and has a slightly eastward track, so effects for some of you may now be at a minimum or not at all. Still, though, I guess we have a powerful storm brining powerful conditions to NC.
Earl is still right on track with what the NHC is saying, it's just wobbling east every now and then just like last night it was wobbling due westward while generally moving WNW. So there's no doubt in my mind they will feel effects regardless if it was moving more eastward from time to time while moving due north. Bryan mentioned earlier the hurricane winds will expand the further north it gets out to nearly 300 miles (150 on both sides) and tropical storm winds farther out than that.
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Not the mention the eye is closing. :(
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Don't worry, Mike. One day, a major hurricane will make landfall in central NJ.
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If anyone is interested in any Hurricane Earl clips they are on my Youtube page anytime. IS/HD/Satellite. (link under my location on the left side) various members like Mike and others have videos there also.
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Those Hurricane Warnings needs to be dropped. No way there will be hurricane force winds anywhere on the US coast.
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Goodbye Hurricane Earl. :salute: As of the 11 PM EDT advisory, Earl has been downgraded to a tropical storm with max sustained winds of 70 mph. This storm is weakening rather quickly. :yes:
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If anyone is interested in any Hurricane Earl clips they are on my Youtube page anytime. IS/HD/Satellite. (link under my location on the left side) various members like Mike and others have videos there also.
Thanks Alex. B)
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Goodbye Hurricane Earl. :salute: As of the 11 PM EDT advisory, Earl has been downgraded to a tropical storm with max sustained winds of 70 mph. This storm is weakening rather quickly. :yes:
About time they dropped those Hurricane Warnings. Earl is barely a threat to anyone really. Tomorrow should be a nice start to the labor day weekend for folks on the east coast! :)
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Wow, Earl (now extratropical) has a weird forecast track now :blink:
(http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT07/refresh/AL0710W5_NL+gif/023119W5_NL_sm.gif)
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I'll admit it does look strange, but it actually makes sense. Even post-tropical cyclones don't want to travel too close to the poles, and steering winds are usually accommodating. Considering what's left of Earl is still pretty well put together, even though it's lost its tropical characteristics, this system isn't going to dissipate in the immediate future. Most remnants of tropical systems do eventually cruise across the northern Atlantic, but it just so happens that Earl ventured farther north than many before starting its transoceanic crossing. :)
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Whats more shocking is that the NHC actually issued products up until that point