Hurricane Earl- Storm Train

[gt1racerlHDl]

i know that this is in the near future but here's the water temperatures in the central Atlantic

http://www.nodc.noaa.gov/dsdt/cwtg/catl.html

[TWCmatthew]

Looks like the waters could support a strong hurricane all the way up to Maryland, and possibly north into DE/PA.

[Localonthe8s]

Looks like the waters could support a strong hurricane all the way up to Maryland, and possibly north into DE/PA.

Temps are in the mid 70s to low 80s from the Delmarva peninsula to MA, so these warm water temps are enough to support a strong hurricane as it heads closer to the coastline.

[phw115wvwx]

Tropical Storm Earl has intensified to winds of 60 mph.  Its track has been shifted way more westward and threatens the Leeward Islands and eventually the East Coast.  Furthermore, the storm has been fighting wind shear the last day or so, which is why it hasn't strengthened much.  That's going to change as the shear is expected to relax around it, which means it'll head for hurricane and perhaps major hurricane status in the near future.  Tropical storm watches and warnings have been issued for some of the Leeward islands.  I'm starting to worry about this one.

[weatherlover94]

yea me to i think this one will hit as a big hurricane remember isabel hit north carolina as a cat 2 this one has the potential to be a strong 3 or a weak 4 defiantly not one to play with i would cautiously watch it and keep in the back of your mind...early part of the week start making some decisions on what you may need to do to prepare....think about what you will need to do if you were asked to evacuate what are your routs going to be or if you are already planning to stick it out what will you need batteries for flashlights if your power goes out plenty of canned goods and anything you would potentially need for atleast a weeks time ....atleast start thinking about these things it could still go out to sea but looking less likely that it will go out to sea and more likely it will strike the east cost

[TWCToday]

yea me to i think this one will hit as a big hurricane remember isabel hit north carolina as a cat 2 this one has the potential to be a strong 3 or a weak 4 defiantly not one to play with i would cautiously watch it and keep in the back of your mind...early part of the week start making some decisions on what you may need to do to prepare....think about what you will need to do if you were asked to evacuate what are your routs going to be or if you are already planning to stick it out what will you need batteries for flashlights if your power goes out plenty of canned goods and anything you would potentially need for atleast a weeks time ....atleast start thinking about these things it could still go out to sea but looking less likely that it will go out to sea and more likely it will strike the east cost

Thank god that stormed weakened right before it hit. I wouldn't have had a house!

Canadian
http://img831.imageshack.us/img831/1050/153118579.gif

[weatherlover94]

i know what you mean martin but you may not be so luckey this time brcause all of the models have been shifting farther west with each new forecast if this trend keeps up then by this time tomorrow night then models will be showing a landfall i just dont think this will be a fish storm at all because its in question according to the nws if the front will be a front at all when it gets to were earl will be so its looking more likely a major landfall

[toxictwister00]

Early 00z models - It's pretty obvious a few of the models are very confused with what could happen with Earl considering they're zig zagging all over the place! 

[WeatherWitness]

The zig-zag models are funny. I also like the orange model that just has to be different and track to the south.

These models and the current projected paths are providing for extreme suspense, though. The just stop right when they are very near the US, so it's hard to tell if Earl will turn north and east away from the US or make direct landfall as what will likely be a major hurricane on the east coast.

EDIT: Areas previously under Tropical Storm Watches/Warnings (the Leeward islands and Puerto Rico) are now under HURRICANE watches and warnings. Here is the latest projected path:



(Tavores...I'm sorry I beat you to it. )

[toxictwister00]

The zig-zag models are funny. I also like the orange model that just has to be different and track to the south.

These models and the current projected paths are providing for extreme suspense, though. The just stop right when they are very near the US, so it's hard to tell if Earl will turn north and east away from the US or make direct landfall as what will likely be a major hurricane on the east coast.

EDIT: Areas previously under Tropical Storm Watches/Warnings (the Leeward islands and Puerto Rico) are now under HURRICANE watches and warnings. Here is the latest projected path:



(Tavores...I'm sorry I beat you to it. )

That's ok, I found a link to how the forecast track has shifted west over the past few days.
 http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2010/graphics/al07/loop_5W.shtml
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2010/graphics/al07/loop_5W.shtml

[TWCmatthew]

Early 00z models - It's pretty obvious a few of the models are very confused with what could happen with Earl considering they're zig zagging all over the place! 

There's always that one model that wanders off...

[toxictwister00]

New Track - It's getting awfully close....

[gt1racerlHDl]

Seems like the models want earl to hit Massachusetts, figures 

[toxictwister00]

Seems like the models want earl to hit Massachusetts, figures 

Well there have been a couple that wanted Earl to hit NC then Cape Cod, but that's also where all the models diverge from eachother on where he goes.

[ruhgster]

I still wouldn't count on the US taking at least a direct hit...yet, definitely effects from the storm look very possible though.