Hurricane Earl- Storm Train

[TWCToday]

 African storm train is in full swing!

[toxictwister00]

Things are in full swing indeed my friend! I knew this was gonna be watched, it came off the coast looking big and strong yesterday. We might have an "Earl" if it keeps looking healthy like this. 40% chance of development via NHC. 

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE OFF THE
AFRICAN COAST IS SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION.  ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE...AND IT COULD BECOME A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD NEAR 15 MPH.  THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[toxictwister00]

60% chance = CODE RED!!! I'm gonna be a betting man and call for a TD by the 5am update. It's still looking healthy on satellite. 

1. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED
ABOUT 350 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS CONTINUES TO
SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION.  THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.  THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...60
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

[gt1racerlHDl]

Gee with the East Coast Trough moving out it leaves the Atlantic Wide open for this "Earl" Storm.

[WeatherWitness]

Now things start to get active...right on schedule!

[bergone]

Earl sounds like an ominous name....like a storm that would do a lot of damage. Just sayin.

[Localonthe8s]

Earl sounds like an ominous name....like a storm that would do a lot of damage. Just sayin.

I agree, it's a rough sounding name.

[phw115wvwx]

I always think of the tropics as a light switch.  Mother Nature may have just flipped the switch on a few days ago.  This looks likely to develop into something over the next day or two.

[bergone]

Agreed. And there are even more waves coming through africa.

[TWCToday]

WNW movement already. Kinda looking like another fishy

[gt1racerlHDl]

90% and we got Earl!

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE AUG 24 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
DANIELLE...LOCATED ABOUT 1110 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.

1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING ABOUT 100 MILES
SOUTH OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...AND IT APPEARS THAT A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD BE FORMING.  IF THIS TREND CONTINUES... ADVISORIES
ON THIS SYSTEM COULD BE INITIATED AS EARLY AS LATER THIS MORNING.
THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT NEAR 15 MPH.  LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS AND
STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS TODAY...AND INTERESTS IN THOSE ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG
NNNN

[toxictwister00]

I'm somewhat surprised this hasn't been named TD #7 yet, it's been sitting at a 90% chance for several hours now.

[TWCToday]

I'm somewhat surprised this hasn't been named TD #7 yet, it's been sitting at a 90% chance for several hours now.

Quite a few people including many mets agree.

[gt1racerlHDl]

Expected to be Earl by the 5pm adv.

[toxictwister00]

Hmm, this one doesn't look like it'll be a fish storm so far, in fact it appears it might hit FL or the SE coast if we go beyond that track. Also that track kinda looks similar to Andrew except I think it was further north in track a little in the 5 day range of where this TD will be. It's interesting because it looks like this will rapidly develop to hurricane status like Danielle once it gets passed that dry air.

EDIT: Looking at it again, it might actually be getting ready to recurve north near the end of that 5 day track.