It's a game. I predict that regardless of the outcome, TWC reverts back to longform central after the dispute ends. If DTV keeps TWC, then TWC will see no need to appease the carrier and it will resume the longform. If DTV drops TWC, then TWC will have nothing to gain from smoke and mirrors; therefore, it will resume the longform.
As far as losing its audience goes, I thought TWC was making a start on that already. Sure, being the only national weather source available for so long would have given the channel an advantage by default. However, I'm sure some viewers, whether on DTV or not, have tuned out the channel already.
Now, I do think this may be a wakeup call of sorts if TWC listens. Although I don't see longform going away, especially on weekends, I wonder if some of the egregiously non-weather-related programming (*cough*Prospectors*cough*) might get the boot in favor of more weather-related shows.
Or maybe increase live weather coverage to what it was like in 2010 or 2011? And hopefully boot off those stupid reality shows and show weather shows like what it was in 2007 and 2008 like you said?
If DirecTV follows throughs I strongly expect That some weather programming would return mainly evenings and overnight (Ex. The 10pm and 1am returning and weekends even adding hours.)
The reason TWC is doing this is because DirecTV pretty much called them out for what we have been saying about TWC for a while now... Except, They have 33 million homes they go into and have picked up a 24 hour weather network as well to say "Hey, You know when you used to be about the weather? We would like that back please, or we will walk with our 33 million customers and we'll stay away.... ask G4 about that one, Comcast.*" So DirecTV have some stroke here that TWC knows for a fact is huge. So If DirecTV does this expect some changes on TWC.
*DirecTV pulled G4 in 2010, and it has not returned since.