Hurricane Irene

[toxictwister00]

I think the 12z model runs were supposed to have the data from the G-IV NOAA planes, if so that would explain why the 12z GFS shifted west.

More bad news model wise, the European model moved west. In fact the center goes right over NYC as a Cat. 2/maybe weak 3, but that would be on the most extreme side of strength.

[gt1racerlHDl]

2:00 PM EDT Wed Aug 24
Location: 22.7°N 74.3°W
Max sustained: 120 mph
Moving: NW at 12 mph
Min pressure: 954 mb

[toxictwister00]

I wonder if NHC will shift their cone back west some now that models are shifting back west?

[WeatherWitness]

Well, from our 5 PM latest advisory, it's looking like Irene will make landfall as a CAT 2 (or perhaps weaker) in CT or RI. NYC will definitely fell effects from the storm.

[gt1racerlHDl]

As i predicted earlier in the Thread SE Mass will suffer catastrophic damage from Irene. (there is too much emphasis on NC which will probably only see Heavy Rain from Irene)

[gt1racerlHDl]

Irene is now going through the Eye Replacement Cycle (may fall to either 115mph or 110mph by next update.)

[gt1racerlHDl]

8:00 PM EDT Wed Aug 24
Location: 23.5°N 75.0°W
Max sustained: 120 mph
Moving: NW at 12 mph
Min pressure: 954 mb

[toxictwister00]

Wind speeds I'm thinking 135-145mph (Cat 4) range, but it may weaken some beforehand if it slows down/stalls before making it to NC. As far as pressure, already some early reports of 964mb from hurricane hunters I can see it dropping another 20-35mbs.

UPDATE: Eyewall Replacement Cycle is taking longer than I expected so I'm forecasting Irene will max out at 130-140mph now. I think the possibility of a strong Cat. 4 is moderate. Possibility of a Cat. 5 I believe is slim to none. I said yesterday there could be a possibility of it very briefly getting that high, but due to what I said about the ERC, the chances are decreasing as Irene only has about 24hrs or so to show off by ramping up the intensity.

My barometric pressure forecast remains the same. I still believe Irene could bomb between the 920's -930's.

  Good grief...I'm not sure whether to be amazed by her beauty as a hurricane or frightened by it's massive size.

[WeatherWitness]

What is causing Irene to turn? Is there a trough or pressure system over the U.S.? I am amazed at how much the track has changed as compared to earlier this week.

Despite the fact that Irene may not be making a "traditional landfall" (go right from water to land), this situation of Irene "skimming" the east coast is probably worse because it's effecting such a long stretch of land with it's most dangerous part: the eye wall.

[toxictwister00]

What is causing Irene to turn? Is there a trough or pressure system over the U.S.? I am amazed at how much the track has changed as compared to earlier this week.

Despite the fact that Irene may not be making a "traditional landfall" (go right from water to land), this situation of Irene "skimming" the east coast is probably worse because it's effecting such a long stretch of land with it's most dangerous part: the eye wall.

To answer the first question, it's because it's traveling along a weakness between the ridge in the Atlantic and the ridge in the Central Plains.

Actually today models have shifted back west as they were indicating that the incoming trough expected to come into the ECONUS later this week was weaker and not digging as far south as it was allowing Irene to move further NW before turning north, also the ridge in the Atlantic has shown up stronger and further west on some models.

In addition, the models should be even more accurate the next several days when forecasting Irene

SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE
NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS CAMP SPRINGS MD
2214Z WED AUG 24 2011


NWSHQ DIRECTIVE TO LAUNCH SIX-HOURLY RAOBS /SOUNDINGS/...

SDM IS HEREBY RELAYING A DIRECTIVE FROM NWSHQ FOR WFO/S
IN ALL OF EASTERN..SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL REGIONS PLUS
MONTANA IN WESTERN REGION TO LAUNCH SIX-HOURLY RAOBS
/SOUNDINGS/ BEGINNING AT THU 25 AUG 06Z AND UNTIL
FURTHER NOTICE. THIS DIRECTIVE IS TO PROVIDE ADDITIONAL
DATA INPUT WHICH SHOULD HELP WITH MODEL GUIDANCE IN
FORECASTING THE FUTURE TRACK AND IMPACTS OF HURRICANE
IRENE.

$$

STOUDT/SDM/NCO/NCEP

[gt1racerlHDl]

11:00 PM EDT Wed Aug 24
Location: 23.8°N 75.4°W
Max sustained: 120 mph
Moving: NW at 12 mph
Min pressure: 952 mb

[toxictwister00]

From the 11pm forecast discussion

BECAUSE IRENE IS A LARGE CYCLONE...TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE
WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST OF THE
CAROLINAS EARLY THURSDAY.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/250256.shtml?

[wachirawits12]

2:00 AM EDT Thu Aug 25
Location: 24.2°N 76.0°W
Max sustained: 115 mph
Moving: NW at 12 mph
Min pressure: 950 mb

[Pop Light Brown]

I had a hunch that the models would trend back westward in regards to NY/NJ and New England...

Looks like the Megalopolis is gonna get jacked up.

[TWCToday]