TWC Today Forums
Weather Discussion => Hazardous Weather => Hurricane Central => Topic started by: wachirawits12 on August 20, 2011, 06:53:22 PM
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Well I guess i'll start this topic as Tropical Storm Irene has formed with 50mph wind....
Not yet put out on the NHC Site though
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This is a BIG mama of a storm! This is gonna be fun to watch it evolve over the next several days from a meteorological standpoint.
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TWC is already turning graphics red and switching music.
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Auto-updating maps and wind speed probabilities from the National Hurricane Center. If Irene can avoid major interaction with land as it passes over the Caribbean, then it has a pretty strong chance of developing into a hurricane (possibly a second time) before nearing Florida. Speaking of which, the Sunshine State is right in the middle of the cone of uncertainty, so unless we have another Emily situation, it looks like residents will likely see something from this storm.
Storm Track:
(http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT09/refresh/AL0911W5_NL_sm2+gif/230313W5_NL_sm.gif)
Wind Probabilities:
(http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT09/refresh/AL0911T_sm2+gif/230313P_sm.gif)
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This is turning into a serious conditions. my friends who are in meteorology also are saying that this conditions are almost exact same as Hurricane Katrina in 2005...which was devastating...We'll have to see what how this turns out....
But everyone in the Southeastern Coast of the US - Texas, Louisiana, Alabama, Florida, and the Carolinas need to watch out for this...This goes for the rest of the Eastern US as well...
This is NOT an Emily Situation by any means based on the model i've looked at so far....
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I'm getting a feeling models that shifted east (GFS/Euro) are gonna shift west again. GFS has been doing that today, it shifted west from the 12z and 6z runs and I don't think the 0z run will be any different. If the ridge in the Atlantic is stronger and retrogrades west the north turn will be delayed, that's what the CMC and UKMET are doing which is why they are so far west from the others. My biggest concern is flooding across the SE, GFS/EURO are stalling Irene over AL/GA once it makes landfall because it misses a weak departing trough to pull it north and east.
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That forecast track has way too many land interactions for Irene to be a significant threat to the United States at this time. I'm holding off from any speculations until I actually can see evidence that it will survive through the Caribbean.
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This is NOT an Emily Situation by any means based on the model i've looked at so far....
Never said it was. Sorry if I made it seem that way :bleh: .
I don't think we have enough data yet to say this is gonna be a big, major storm yet, though, because it's actual track still could mess it up in the long run. If she interacts with land severely enough, she make just impact the United States as a tropical storm. If she makes it into the Gulf of Mexico...well, that's a different story. But for now, I'm hesitant to get excited for any major hurricane. A strong tropical storm or weak hurricane is a real possibility, however.
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This is NOT an Emily Situation by any means based on the model i've looked at so far....
Never said it was. Sorry if I made it seem that way :bleh: .
I don't think we have enough data yet to say this is gonna be a big, major storm yet, though, because it's actual track still could mess it up in the long run. If she interacts with land severely enough, she make just impact the United States as a tropical storm. If she makes it into the Gulf of Mexico...well, that's a different story. But for now, I'm hesitant to get excited for any major hurricane. A strong tropical storm or weak hurricane is a real possibility, however.
lol i was talking before i saw your post :P I was gonna say that this seems like it's not gonna be like emily cause the pattern is different and the forecast model i've looked at so far provides this fact...Sorry if it seems like i was talking to u :P
But i agree with what you said...Current track can still mess up the intensity once it gets to cuba and the hispaniola and interacts with land and mountains terrain
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That forecast track has way too many land interactions for Irene to be a significant threat to the United States at this time. I'm holding off from any speculations until I actually can see evidence that it will survive through the Caribbean.
Only because they're taking the middle road of both extremes of west/east tracks, but I agree you can't say for sure. Irene is moving at a swift pace west at 22mph, unless it slows down in forward motion I wonder if that will have an effect on it missing a lot of land areas in the Caribbean. (moving more south and west)
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So Irene may be our first hurricane of the Atlantic season... :thinking:
As Patrick has said, unless the track of Irene shifts west, I think the land will really disrupt its intensity.
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TWC is already turning graphics red and switching music.
Really? Seems a bit early but thats cool to see
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For what it's worth...
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I'm getting a feeling models that shifted east (GFS/Euro) are gonna shift west again. GFS has been doing that today, it shifted west from the 12z and 6z runs and I don't think the 0z run will be any different. If the ridge in the Atlantic is stronger and retrogrades west the north turn will be delayed, that's what the CMC and UKMET are doing which is why they are so far west from the others. My biggest concern is flooding across the SE, GFS/EURO are stalling Irene over AL/GA once it makes landfall because it misses a weak departing trough to pull it north and east.
I have a feeling Irene will stay mainly south of the islands as well...which wouldn't be good because that puts her on a track much closer to me. I do not trust that upper high over Texas.
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NHC is picking up on those intensity models. Here's their discussion.
IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE MODELS THAT SHOW LESS LAND INTERACTION...SUCH
AS THE GFDL OR HWRF...HAVE IRENE BECOMING A MAJOR HURRICANE...AND
THAT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ESPECIALLY IF THE STORM MOVES ON
THE FAR LEFT OR RIGHT SIDE OF THE FORECAST CONE AND AVOIDS
SIGNIFICANT LAND INTERACTION. OVERALL...GIVEN THE TRACK FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LAND INTERACTION...THE INTENSITY
FORECAST LATE IN THE PERIOD IS EVEN MORE UNCERTAIN THAN USUAL.
A HURRICANE WATCH COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PUERTO RICO TOMORROW IF
THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT TO THE TRACK FORECAST.
OF NOTE...THIS IS THE THIRD EARLIEST TO HAVE NINE NAMED STORMS FORM
IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN...BEHIND 2005 AND 1936.
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For what it's worth, here's my friend and I forecast windspeed and track....
As you can se we have Irene windspeed higher than the NHC's...But not really by much right now...
Edited the Graphics on Sunday 9:51am PDT for the change in track and intensity...Tropics Icon thanks to Donovan :happy:
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I somehow don't think Irene will be very problematic for the United States. The models have it passing over the mountainous terrains of the Dominican Republic and Cuba, which will just greatly disrupt the circulation. I just think there will be too much land interaction, but I believe that is in everyone's best interest to keep it from becoming a powerful storm.
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Well somewhat encouraging news, since the COC (center of circulation) of Tropical Storm Irene relocated north, models started shifting east. I say that's somewhat encouraging because if Irene goes north and east enough to avoid little or any land, it will still pose the same serious threat as it would if it was further south and west avoiding land.
Speaking of that not all models want to give into a eastern solution, the UKMET still takes this into the GOM while at the same time avoiding Haiti/DR, Jamaica, and even Cuba!
6z GDFL this morning relives most of the Gulf Coast's fears, but not the FL panhandle and 6z HWRF this morning is Savannah's worst nightmare come to life barreling them with a monstrous hurricane with a barometric pressure of 925mb. 0z Euro does the same trackwise so we could still possibly be looking at a historic rare landfall for GA.
For any hurricane enthusiastics out there call me selfish, but I'm kinda hoping the NHC's current track plays out, We need the rain here and I think if it tracked any further east than that like paralleling the east coast, I know I'm gonna get screwed out of any good rainfall. I always do when they do that.
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My Forecast - I'm not too keen on forecasting intensity, so I stayed a little conservative on that. After this forecast map, I'll probably take them out. My track is slightly west of the NHC's track.
Also, please don't laugh at my graphics, this is my first time making a forecast map pertaining to tropical weather so I know it's not that good. :P (and no I wasn't trying to recreate TWC graphics, but the cone does look a little similar to it.)
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A hurricane warning, the first of the Atlantic hurricane season, is in effect for the south side of Hispaniola...and a hurricane watch is in effect for Puerto Rico, Vieques, and Culebra.
EDIT: Below is a document containing my thoughts and forecast for Irene.
(http://www.editor.usaweather.net/caribbean.PNG)
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12 GFS shifts north again, barely clips Haiti/DR on the northside and passes by Cuba heading NW only giving them a glancing blow and then continues to strengthen. It's a 985mb low at hour 90.
Irene misses the trough coming and exiting the ECONUS, the Atlantic ridge begins building back in by Wed/Thu timeframe forcing her to go NW instead of due N.
EDIT: I think it's time for me to do some revisions to my forecast cone... A GOM hit is looking more and more less likely.
Hour 144 - Landfall around GA/SC border.
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For what it's worth, here's my friend and I forecast windspeed and track....
As you can se we have Irene windspeed higher than the NHC's...But not really by much right now...
90 MPH? That's a bit much...ok, that's a lot much.
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For what it's worth, here's my friend and I forecast windspeed and track....
As you can se we have Irene windspeed higher than the NHC's...But not really by much right now...
90 MPH? That's a bit much...ok, that's a lot much.
Really? I don't think so. I find that to be plausible.
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I say 80 MPH...tops. Now, once it passes the Dominican Republic, maybe. But before it even gets there? No.
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As mentioned earlier, I have noticed that the projected path has now been shifted slightly more to the east. TWC has also dropped the intensity level from 85 to 75 MPH when it hits Florida. Hopefully the track doesn't shift too far east and then have the storm go to nowhere, because some areas in the U.S. could use the rain. But I know flooding from hurricanes/tropical storms is not really what we need (except for Texas).
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Directional change from W to WNW.
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Most of the operational models taking an east coast track now. NHC will probably start coming east with their track
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HRWF has it making landfall in Florida, and then re-entering the Atlantic as a Category 3 :thinking:
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As displayed in my graphic, Irene's pressure is down to 999mb, but it's still only 50mph in max winds. Could this be one of those cases where the winds play catch up to the pressure? That's a significant drop in pressure from earlier. Also that satellite image of Irene I'm gong to assume is deceiving, looks like an eye is trying to from, but I could be wrong...
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As displayed in my graphic, Irene's pressure is down to 999mb, but it's still only 50mph in max winds. Could this be one of those cases where the winds play catch up to the pressure? That's a significant drop in pressure from earlier. Also that satellite image of Irene I'm gong to assume is deceiving, looks like an eye is trying to from, but I could be wrong...
I see where you're getting that from.
Katrina 2005
Pressure 950 - Winds 70 MPH
Pressure 930 - Winds 90 MPH
Pressure 910 - Winds 110 MPH
Pressure 1110 - Winds 50 MPH
(of course those weren't the actual numbers, it was just an example). I don't think that's the case with all storms. We'll have to wait for the Intermediate Advisory in 30 minutes, I guess.
That does look like an eye is trying to form... :thinking:
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Most of the time, pressure is the first variable to respond. Then, the winds have to adjust to the changing pressure. I have seen the case for both intensification and weakening phases. I'll be curious to see the 5 PM advisory given the pressure drop and the change in the forecast models.
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Most of the time, pressure is the first variable to respond. Then, the winds have to adjust to the changing pressure. I have seen the case for both intensification and weakening phases. I'll be curious to see the 5 PM advisory given the pressure drop and the change in the forecast models.
Thank you and Trevor for replying, I'm curious to see what the 5pm advisory will be like too.
12z EURO today... :blink: :wacko:
It's probably overdoing it, but still it's pretty scary to imagine.
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It looks like we've got some dry air trying to bud in, as shown by the arrow.
(http://i989.photobucket.com/albums/af19/TWCFreak/irene.gif)
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From what my friends and I gathered at this Point, Here is our Forecast Track Cone and Intensity....
And sorry for the typo :P It has been changed....And also forgot to add on that it is PM Forecast NOT AM Forecast...Sorry about that...
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Interesting. Not a bad track forecast, except 75 mph is not a tropical storm.
The latest ADT run is 3.1, which signals a wind speed of just over 45 knots. So at the moment, looks like winds are holding just above 50.
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I thought this would be interesting to share...these are some of the models. Some of them are similar in their paths, but are completely different when it comes to intensity. Check it out!
(http://bit.ly/nbjz7x)
(http://bit.ly/n6eBf4)
(http://bit.ly/nOlIAu)
(http://bit.ly/okDxnX)
(http://bit.ly/nLjiTq)
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Since when did NHC forecast a tropical depression at the end of the period? I don't see that in the track cone or forecast discussion.
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They don't forecast at the end of the cone, like I did. I figure if it does travel over the entire Peninsula of Florida, it won't be a storm.
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Trevor, where did you get all that track information from? Seems interesting on how many possibilities there could be. :yes:
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It's a paid radar software called GREarth (that's also where the background is from). I took the data from there and threw it into PPT.
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new advisory shows that the NHC is pretty much almost agreeing with my forecast from earlier...Here's the windspeed forecast....
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If you don't mind releasing, what background are you using?
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If you don't mind releasing, what background are you using?
If your talking to me, then i think you also have the same background also....This is from Grearth....
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Ah, ok. I think the yellow text through me off. Most people have it as white. Yellow adds a nice touch.
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My last forecast for today. I'm leaving it as this until I see a reason to change otherwise.
Hello Irene! :wave:
(http://radblast-mi.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/radar/WUNIDS_map?station=JUA&brand=wui&num=10&delay=15&type=N0R&frame=0&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&t=1313964256&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&showstorms=99&map.x=400&map.y=240¢erx=400¢ery=240&transx=0&transy=0&showlabels=1&severe=0&rainsnow=0&lightning=1&smooth=1)
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Latest Advisories have IRENE at 60mph and pressure at 995. Below is the current storm satellite view and the updated storm track which should be my last for today....except maybe a few updates here and there this evening...
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I've seen the projected path skirt all over the Florida peninsula, from off the east coast to off the west coast to everywhere in between. Unless it fizzles out like Emily or veers considerably off of this projection, though, it looks like the third time's the charm (oh... "joy") and I'll be experiencing something from Irene.
P.S.: Why do I always keep wanting to write Irène? Because that's what the name is in two of my three languages. :)
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What's surprising me is that Brian Norcross just said there would be a weaker steering flow for Irene (Weak Jet Stream Dip in New England on Thursday), and he showed 3 arrows Left Arrow in NW direction = Florida, Center Arrow = SE GA/SC coast, Right Arrow NE direction = pointing towards Nova Scotia and the Open Atlantic Ocean.
I still go for the Northeastern arrow so nobody in the US is immediately affected from the storm.
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Of course, the track out into the open ocean would be beneficial for all (except, maybe, poor Texas), but I think that's the least likely of the scenarios. Of course, the way this year's been going, all bets are off.
Speaking of Texas, Don's literal and rapid disintegration still shocks me.
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Looks like eye wall replacement going on.... *Well its not a true replacment... just starting to see a change on radar...
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Guys, from what I've been watching, neither TWC nor the NHC have changed the projected path or Irene all day. Yet I'm seeing many different paths being posted here. :wacko: Now I understand the path can change at any minute and the projected path is to provide only a general idea, but where are you all getting the information from, primarily that Irene will shift so far east that it will probably only brush Florida's east coast and possibly turn away from the U.S. like Earl did? Some of the differences in the projected paths I'm seeing are pretty drastic.
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I wish that center would stay in one place, it would make it easier for me to track. It's been jumping around since yesterday.
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I just checked various websites - TWC, Accu-Weather, and the NWS. They're all predicting Irene to impact the Daytona Beach area from late Thursday to early Saturday.
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Guys, from what I've been watching, neither TWC nor the NHC have changed the projected path or Irene all day. Yet I'm seeing many different paths being posted here. :wacko: Now I understand the path can change at any minute and the projected path is to provide only a general idea, but where are you all getting the information from, primarily that Irene will shift so far east that it will probably only brush Florida's east coast and possibly turn away from the U.S. like Earl did? Some of the differences in the projected paths I'm seeing are pretty drastic.
Here is my projected path which is much further east than the NHC or TWC...Why? Because most of the models have now turned more east ward and I've seen that for awhile now which is why my path now look like this...
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I'll believe it when I see it. Personally, I think everyone is hyping about this storm too early.
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www.youtube.com/watch?v=yX0muwE9-w4 (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yX0muwE9-w4#)
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I'll believe it when I see it. Personally, I think everyone is hyping about this storm too early.
It's completely understandable when it's the first serious threat for the US in 3 years, but I kinda feel the same way you do. We have been dodging so many bullets with these tropical cyclones it's hard to believe we could have something significant on our hands, but we can dodge the bullet for only so long and because of that I'm still going to treat Irene as a serious threat unless there comes a point over the next several days that it shouldn't.
EDIT: RECON Hurricane Hunters report
SFMR
Peak (10s Avg.) Sfc. Wind
66 knots
(~ 75.9 mph)
Might have Hurricane Irene soon...
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That's a peak. Most likely, the sustained is just below that. I'm guessing 65 to 70 mph in the next advisory.
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That's a peak. Most likely, the sustained is just below that. I'm guessing 65 to 70 mph in the next advisory.
Looks like you were right, 70mph as of 11pm.
NHC shifts east once again showing more of a threat for SC/GA on the right side. Also notice they keep Irene at hurricane strength as it skits the east coast of FL.
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Are you kidding me :P The National Hurricane center put their newest cone almost exactly the same as mine and also almost exact same Wind Speed :P
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Are you kidding me :P The National Hurricane center put their newest cone almost exactly the same as me and also almost exact same Wind Speed :P
It was pretty close to my last forecasted track too, although mine is slightly more east right offshore of the east coast of FL.
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Am I the only one here who finds forecasting tropical tracks and intensities highly interesting? I'm really enjoying looking at everyone's tracks and predictions. :biggrin:
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Am I the only one here who finds forecasting tropical tracks and intensities highly interesting? I'm really enjoying looking at everyone's tracks and predictions. :biggrin:
I do, that's why I have been posting in here so much. :P I have the 2004 and 2005 Hurricane Season to thank drawing my interest. I had some interest in hurricanes before then, but those two seasons brought it full circle for me, I definitely have a higher respect for them. :yes:
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000
URNT12 KNHC 220520
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092011
A. 22/05:06:10Z
B. 18 deg 05 min N
065 deg 40 min W
C. 850 mb 1352 m
D. 55 kt
E. 043 deg 11 nm
F. 130 deg 78 kt
G. 043 deg 11 nm
H. 991 mb
I. 16 C / 1522 m
J. 20 C / 1516 m
K. 17 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF302 0309A IRENE OB 14
MAX FL WIND 78 KT NE QUAD 05:02:30Z
Expect Hurricane Irene by 2am Advisory.
I'm gonna say it'll be between 80-90 mph.
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At 1:25 am Irene made landfall on Puerto Rico.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCUAT4+shtml/220530.shtml (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCUAT4+shtml/220530.shtml)
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Now officially a Hurricane and rapidly organizing. Northern portion is feeding off of the Atlantic
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NHC latest cone calling for GA hit.
EDIT: As Martin already stated, now that Irene is a hurricane we have our first hurricane of the 2011 season!
Also what a phenomenal storm Irene is, I know it would be destructive if it makes landfall at the intensity it could shown by the models, but it sure looks beautiful! I think there is a strong possibility Irene will NOT cut right through Haiti/DR, it should scrape by on the north side or miss them altogether.
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Savannah, GA is rather overdue, sadly ;(
In other news, Puerto Rico's radar is down...possibly because of Irene.
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Savannah, GA is rather overdue, sadly ;(
In other news, Puerto Rico's radar is down...possibly because of Irene.
True, eventhough that cone will shift around several times by late week, I'm sold on a GA/SC hit.
I guess it's true what they say, "What doesn't kill you only makes you stronger". I think that's the best way to sum up Irene at this point.
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I think Irene has solved the Caribbean puzzle as it's going to escape just north of Hispaniola, so all my earlier doubts have faded. Now, I see a real chance that Irene will become a major hurricane over the Bahamas. There's still a ton of uncertainty in the models regarding how much will that subtropical ridge over Bermuda break later this week, which will mean everything in forecasting Irene's northward turn. Irene could still miss the East Coast entirely if it curves northward sooner than expected due to a rapid breakdown of the ridge, so I can't predict a landfall location with good confidence yet. However, the odds of a United States landfall have gone up dramatically in my mind.
I urge everyone from FL to NC to monitor this hurricane closely and prepare for any watches. Now, I hope you all realize how much I hate hyping up storms too soon due to all the evidence you've seen from past storms this year. So, I hope it means something to you all that I'm actually turning on my "red mode" in my mind this morning.
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I think Irene has solved the Caribbean puzzle as it's going to escape just north of Hispaniola, so all my earlier doubts have faded.
I was thinking the same thing, only I thought she would be south of the islands.
Irene will not be a fish storm; she's coming in somewhere. My guess is Cape Canaveral to Hilton Head Island. Depends on how much she turns when she gets in that area.
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I personally think that NHC is still being slightly conservative with their wind estimates with Irene. Seeing how much it has already development overnight, I would say that a moderate range Category 3 by Saturday morning is not completely out of the question. I'm thinking they may bump that final wind speed up to 120 mph in the next few days, depending on what Irene does.
She's a beautiful storm, though. Please, everyone in Georgia and Florida be careful. Southern South Carolina should probably pay attention to Irene as well.
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Intermediate advisory upgrades winds to 80mph.
I think Irene has solved the Caribbean puzzle as it's going to escape just north of Hispaniola, so all my earlier doubts have faded. Now, I see a real chance that Irene will become a major hurricane over the Bahamas. There's still a ton of uncertainty in the models regarding how much will that subtropical ridge over Bermuda break later this week, which will mean everything in forecasting Irene's northward turn. Irene could still miss the East Coast entirely if it curves northward sooner than expected due to a rapid breakdown of the ridge, so I can't predict a landfall location with good confidence yet. However, the odds of a United States landfall have gone up dramatically in my mind.
I urge everyone from FL to NC to monitor this hurricane closely and prepare for any watches. Now, I hope you all realize how much I hate hyping up storms too soon due to all the evidence you've seen from past storms this year. So, I hope it means something to you all that I'm actually turning on my "red mode" in my mind this morning.
Indeed, an OTS solution seems to be increasing, models won't stop shifting east. Something tells me it won't as far east as they're trying to indicate, but we'll have to wait and see how things unfold.
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Model guidance has shifted north and east, big time. All but about 4 models now take Irene straight in Myrtle Beach.
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Hmm, Irene is starting to look a little off balanced (as far as her shape) to me now. There was a met over at the americanwx forums who said an eyewall is developing maybe that's why it looking like that.
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Latest track now has Irene to become a Major Hurricane
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Latest track now has Irene to become a Major Hurricane
Quite a noticeable shift eastward from the last cone...I'm not surprised to see they finally added (M) major hurricane to their 5 day cone, I figured it was coming sooner or later.
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Looking at the models and NHC track, there are now two likely scenarios in my eyes:
1.) Irene curves northwest and then north earlier than the track predicts, and curves away from the United States, causing high surf and rip currents along the coastline. This option is possible, especially if the models keeping shifting east.
2.) It looks like, according to current models, the current risk zone is now more the Georgia coastline up to North Carolina. My guess is that landfall is a possibility anywhere from Charleston to the Outer Banks, with the highest risk existing around northeastern South Carolina (Myrtle Beach) to Wilmington. Highest winds forecasted sit at 115 mph, although looking at environmental conditions, I still think this is a tiny bit conservative.
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Looking at the models and NHC track, there are now two likely scenarios in my eyes:
1.) Irene curves northwest and then north earlier than the track predicts, and curves away from the United States, causing high surf and rip currents along the coastline. This option is possible, especially if the models keeping shifting east.
2.) It looks like, according to current models, the current risk zone is now more the Georgia coastline up to North Carolina. My guess is that landfall is a possibility anywhere from Charleston to the Outer Banks, with the highest risk existing around northeastern South Carolina (Myrtle Beach) to Wilmington. Highest winds forecasted sit at 115 mph, although looking at environmental conditions, I still think this is a tiny bit conservative.
It's interesting, I don't buy into the OTS idea, I still think a US hit is more likely. Hopefully things will be more clearer tonight on the 0z runs because the RECON hurricane hunters will be ingesting data into and out ahead of Irene today so that should help put some pieces of the puzzle together. Until then I'm still sticking with my prediction of a GA/SC hit, I can't really rule out NC either.
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
1100 AM AST MON AUG 22 2011
...IRENE FORECAST TO PASS JUST TO THE NORTH OF HISPANIOLA...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.2N 67.5W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM WNW OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM NE OF PUNTA CANA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/221503.shtml? (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/221503.shtml?)
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I wasn't initially going to go higher than 120mph, but right now I don't see anything stopping it from reaching a high end Cat 3.
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Irene already showing up on my 7Day
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GFS takes it just to the OBX and off the coast. Another Earlish track? Its hard to tell when the models are going to stop moving east with the track
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(http://img405.imageshack.us/img405/5111/weather2o.png)
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Everything seems to keep blowing up on the northside, I wonder if the COC will jump north again...
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Adv: 2:00 PM AST Mon Aug 22
Location: 19.3°N 68.1°W
Max sustained: 80 mph
Moving: WNW at 12 mph
Min pressure: 989 mb
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GFS takes it just to the OBX and off the coast. Another Earlish track? Its hard to tell when the models are going to stop moving east with the track
A member from another forum posted from Henry M.'s (Accuweather) facebook page this about the 12z GFS.
It appears there is a problem with the GFS mid-range around 108 hours and after... problem is with the jet stream depiction, which is important for steering influence.
It's exaggerating the trough digging in the W Great Lakes kicking it too far east. Clearly visible on 500mb as a glaring error on the 12z GFS.
Another met said the same...
"12Z MONDAY AUG 22 GFS MODEL UDPATE - the 12 gfs continues to bend IRENE North well east of FLORIDA... much like we saw with Irene in 1999. The Model has landfall at WILMINGTON NC. But the 12z GFS has a ERRRO in its Jet stream pattern at day 5 thru day 7 which causes the Model to bend IRENE further East.... BE CAREFUL USING THE GFS PAST 120 HRS"
http://www.facebook.com/WxRisk (http://www.facebook.com/WxRisk)
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Looking at the models and NHC track, there are now two likely scenarios in my eyes:
1.) Irene curves northwest and then north earlier than the track predicts, and curves away from the United States, causing high surf and rip currents along the coastline. This option is possible, especially if the models keeping shifting east.
2.) It looks like, according to current models, the current risk zone is now more the Georgia coastline up to North Carolina. My guess is that landfall is a possibility anywhere from Charleston to the Outer Banks, with the highest risk existing around northeastern South Carolina (Myrtle Beach) to Wilmington. Highest winds forecasted sit at 115 mph, although looking at environmental conditions, I still think this is a tiny bit conservative.
Oh she's gonna hit land, ending the streak of fish storms. I'll bring the southern landfall possibility southward toward Hilton Head Island. I think 115 mph is a bit conservative too. It wouldn't surprise me if Irene gets to 130 mph.
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Wow!!! :o So much can happen within twelve hours! Irene has the potential of becoming one monster of a hurricane, and may become not only our first hurricane but first major hurricane of the 2011 Atlantic season.
The BIG question: will it curve away from the U.S. or make landfall??? As stated earlier, Savannah, GA and some east coast cities are overdue for a hurricane, but I don't want to make that bad luck for anyone.
I commend those of you who were predicting the eastward shift of Irene and higher intensity levels earlier this week. You guys were accurate!
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Wow!!! :o So much can happen within twelve hours! Irene has the potential of becoming one monster of a hurricane, and may become not only our first hurricane but first major hurricane of the 2011 Atlantic season.
The BIG question: will it curve away from the U.S. or make landfall??? As stated earlier, Savannah, GA and some east coast cities are overdue for a hurricane, but I don't want to make that bad luck for anyone.
I commend those of you who were predicting the eastward shift of Irene and higher intensity levels earlier this week. You guys were accurate!
The eastward trend of the models may be done, the EURO one of the first to start the trend east has shifted back west slightly. As I said in an earlier post, the models will have a lot more reliable data ingested in by the 0z runs tonight so that should help in figuring things out more easier as far as the track.
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Updated:
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Boo, I'm under a medium risk.
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Boo, I'm under a medium risk.
it's just preliminary, the threat level for MA,NY,NJ is bound to be at high by this weekend because of the eastern-most track.
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I knew Irene was massive, but wow! I compared it's size now with a red ring around it and took another red ring of the same size and placed it over the SE region, needless to say whether I'm affected or not by rain and wind, I may see some decent cloud cover as it passes by.
EDIT: It's also beginning to take on that classic hurricane shape, it's gonna be a while, but it's getting there.
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Short Story... Today in guy class, well after gym in the lobby... My heart literally dropped... The teacher upright said "Guys, we have a category 3 Hurricane potentially coming by NHC"........ I'm quite nervous, but right now there isn't nearly much concern as there will be potentially Thursday/Friday... I'm just outside Charleston, SC. I'm seeing a trend with the models shifting to the east, so possibly this thing will miss with its most distructive part... None the less, category 3 isn't something we on the SE Coast want to play with.. Get ready now.
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My friends and I are putting out 5 P.M EDT Advisory Projected Path update....As of now if Irene moving in the direction I think it will, it will not be impact by land and could strengthen to a Cat 4...
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Short Story... Today in guy class, well after gym in the lobby... My heart literally dropped... The teacher upright said "Guys, we have a category 3 Hurricane potentially coming by NHC"........ I'm quite nervous, but right now there isn't nearly much concern as there will be potentially Thursday/Friday... I'm just outside Charleston, SC. I'm seeing a trend with the models shifting to the east, so possibly this thing will miss with its most distructive part... None the less, category 3 isn't something we on the SE Coast want to play with.. Get ready now.
Donovan, if you don't already, get a Hurricane Plan ready...NOW. Even if it doesn't impact you, it's good to have one for next time.
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Short Story... Today in guy class, well after gym in the lobby... My heart literally dropped... The teacher upright said "Guys, we have a category 3 Hurricane potentially coming by NHC"........ I'm quite nervous, but right now there isn't nearly much concern as there will be potentially Thursday/Friday... I'm just outside Charleston, SC. I'm seeing a trend with the models shifting to the east, so possibly this thing will miss with its most distructive part... None the less, category 3 isn't something we on the SE Coast want to play with.. Get ready now.
I'm sure your teacher was just as concerned as anyone would be, but to say something like that when there's still uncertainty in the track is not really a good idea, but it's always good to prepare anyway to be on the safe side. I've heard what I considered to be good news from Savannah, GA on the local news. Residents are taking the time to brace for Irene now by buying hurricane supplies and even calling into the NWS/Emergency Management to get information on Irene and evacuations if it becomes necessary for them to do so. It's great to know they are taking the threat serious whether it's a direct hit or a near miss.
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There are no changes to Irene as of the 5 PM advisory as it's still 80 mph with a pressure of 988 mb. However, I would not want to be in SC or NC right now. If this hurricane is going to make landfall, those two states are in my highest risk. I think Irene will just miss FL and GA. The next 36 hours will be critical as we'll find out how strong Irene will become and whether it will have any chance to curve northward in time to miss the East Coast.
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Here's my path, which basically follows the most easterly model and the Bermuda High.
NBC2 Hurricane Plots below
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Short Story... Today in guy class, well after gym in the lobby... My heart literally dropped... The teacher upright said "Guys, we have a category 3 Hurricane potentially coming by NHC"........ I'm quite nervous, but right now there isn't nearly much concern as there will be potentially Thursday/Friday... I'm just outside Charleston, SC. I'm seeing a trend with the models shifting to the east, so possibly this thing will miss with its most distructive part... None the less, category 3 isn't something we on the SE Coast want to play with.. Get ready now.
I'm sure your teacher was just as concerned as anyone would be, but to say something like that when there's still uncertainty in the track is not really a good idea, but it's always good to prepare anyway to be on the safe side. I've heard what I considered to be good news from Savannah, GA on the local news. Residents are taking the time to brace for Irene now by buying hurricane supplies and even calling into the NWS/Emergency Management to get information on Irene and evacuations if it becomes necessary for them to do so. It's great to know they are taking the threat serious whether it's a direct hit or a near miss.
Haven't heard of that... Really Good to hear they're getting ready though.
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Some models are predicting Hurricane Bob for SE Mass :O
http://flhurricane.com/images/2011/clark9latest.png (http://flhurricane.com/images/2011/clark9latest.png)
GFS aiming right at my headend (New Bedford, MA)
http://icons-ecast.wunderground.com/data/images/at201109_model.gif (http://icons-ecast.wunderground.com/data/images/at201109_model.gif)
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One of the models takes it right into Atlantic City, though I will probably not see that happen.
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Just like the 12z EURO, the 18z GFS has shifted west. Wouldn't be surprised to see models shifting west tonight.
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***Interesting: TWC and NHC have dropped the intensity level of Irene, should it make landfall in the U.S. Originally going to be a major cat 3 hurricane at landfall, its strength at a possible landfall is now only a cat 1 with top wind speeds at 90 mph. Wonder what caused the drop? :blink:
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***Interesting: TWC and NHC have dropped the intensity level of Irene, should it make landfall in the U.S. Originally going to be a major cat 3 hurricane at landfall, its strength at a possible landfall is now only a cat 1 with top wind speeds at 90 mph. Wonder what caused the drop? :blink:
You're looking at a forecast point that is already inland after landfall where you see 90 mph. Thus, it'll show the drop in wind speeds. You have to watch where these forecast points are as they go by time, not distance from landfall.
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I forgot to mention this earlier, but there were 16 NWS offices that were supposed to be releasing weather balloons today to help in relaying more accurate data pertaining to Irene.
These are the cities I can recall from the top of my head that were asked to do this by RECON hurricane hunters, I'll see if I can find the actual text from the NHC.
Peachtree City (Atlanta)
Birmingham
Tampa
Miami
Jacksonville
Charleston
18z HWRF :wow: That's all I can say. Not only did it shift west, it implies GA/SC hit, Savannah right in the crosshairs.
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7:50pm ADV:
Location: 19.7°N 68.7°W
Max sustained: 100 mph
Moving: WNW at 10 mph
Min pressure: 981 mb
Special Adv at 8:15pm
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I've just heard the RECON finding winds anywhere from 90-120mph...
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8:15 PM ET Special Advisory
Updated Track:
(http://i989.photobucket.com/albums/af19/TWCFreak/Screenshot2011-08-22at72252PM.png)
Category: 2
Wind: 100 MPH
Moving: WNW at 10 MPH
Pressure: 981 mb
Here's something interesting that I realized, NHC forecasted a 17% chance that Irene would become a Category 2 by tomorrow. Could this be a sign that Irene is showing some intensification that wasn't previously expected?
EDIT: Looks like the above prediction was right. NHC now forecasting a MAJOR Category 3 storm even earlier, and a possible Category 4. This is gonna be a big one.
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Updated track on TWC shows up to 125mph in the Bahamas and 110 before landfall, but the models should hopefully be updated by tomorrow morning maybe pointing either east or west.
Also looks like the percentages for Cat 4 are around 12% to 14% 36 to 48hrs out.
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8:15 PM ET Special Advisory
Updated Track:
([url]http://i989.photobucket.com/albums/af19/TWCFreak/Screenshot2011-08-22at72252PM.png[/url])
Category: 2
Wind: 100 MPH
Moving: WNW at 10 MPH
Pressure: 981 mb
Here's something interesting that I realized, NHC forecasted a 17% chance that Irene would become a Category 2 by tomorrow. Could this be a sign that Irene is showing some intensification that wasn't previously expected?
EDIT: Looks like the above prediction was right. NHC now forecasting a MAJOR Category 3 storm even earlier, and a possible Category 4. This is gonna be a big one.
It's been modeled for Irene to go through rapid intensification as she approaches the Bahamas which is why so many models bomb her as low as the 910's and 920's pressure wise. That would also suggest possible weak Cat 5 if that occurred.
Here's the chart
(http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT09/refresh/AL0911T_sm2+gif/001914P_sm.gif)
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Here's a microwave image of Irene's eye. The northside is strong, the southside still has some work to do in order for that eye to come out, it's almost there.
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I forgot to mention this earlier, but there were 16 NWS offices that were supposed to be releasing weather balloons today to help in relaying more accurate data pertaining to Irene.
Well releasing more at least. Starting at 18z upper air obs are being taken every 6hrs in some locations
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11:00 PM AST Mon Aug 22
Location: 19.9°N 69.2°W
Max sustained: 100 mph
Moving: WNW at 12 mph
Min pressure: 980 mb
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Forecasting winds of 135 mph 72 hours out. Dang.
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Forecasting winds of 135 mph 72 hours out. Dang.
Like Tavores pointed out, i won't be surprised if they upped it to low cat 5 status 72hrs out.
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MAJOR hurricane status expected for tomorrow evening. CAT 4 may be possible for Thursday evening. I feel like the track is back to what it originally was before the 8 PM advisory...that is, slightly shifted eastward again and more of a curve to the northeast. Savannah, could you be spared? :thinking:
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MAJOR hurricane status expected for tomorrow evening. CAT 4 may be possible for Thursday evening. I feel like the track is back to what it originally was before the 8 PM advisory...that is, slightly shifted eastward again and more of a curve to the northeast. Savannah, could you be spared? :thinking:
Thinking more of a Cat 4 rather than 5 but could be interesting.
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Well, tropical systems always seem to do the exact opposite of what I predict. I predicted it was going to get torn apart by the high mountains of Cuba. Now I know how to predict hurricanes, lol.
All I can say is that I really look forward to TWC's coverage of Irene, regardless of how strong it gets. I think hurricanes (and Jim's thundersnow :P) are TWC's best coverages. I'll be interested to see what it does, but I really hope that people on the east coast start preparing ASAP. You definitely don't want to see if it's going to hit you or not before you get those batteries. I know from experience that they disappear like crazy.
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Well, tropical systems always seem to do the exact opposite of what I predict. I predicted it was going to get torn apart by the high mountains of Cuba. Now I know how to predict hurricanes, lol.
All I can say is that I really look forward to TWC's coverage of Irene, regardless of how strong it gets. I think hurricanes (and Jim's thundersnow :P) are TWC's best coverages. I'll be interested to see what it does, but I really hope that people on the east coast start preparing ASAP. You definitely don't want to see if it's going to hit you or not before you get those batteries. I know from experience that they disappear like crazy.
Indeed their coverage is remarkable! Your prediction would have been probably right if the storm had crossed that area
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NHC mentioned in their advisory that the 00Z model guidance run would a lot of recon data imported into the models. Looking at the new runs, the models farther and farther north. If anything, the new threat has now shifted north again...with Wilmington possibly towards Virginia in the crossheirs. Savannah and Charleston may not see as drastic effects as previously thought.
(http://www.ral.ucar.edu/guidance/realtime/plots/northatlantic/2011/al092011/track_early/aal09_2011082300_track_early.png)
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Depending on how some people want to look at the situation, it's either unfortunate or a good thing that Irene's projected path keeps turning in a northeasterly direction towards the end of the week. It looks extremely close to the US, so effects will definitely be felt, but I am now starting to wonder if it's going to make a US landfall at all, or have the eye wall/eye every so slightly brush the east coast. The models have really been shifting around all day. :wacko:
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Depending on how some people want to look at the situation, it's either unfortunate or a good thing that Irene's projected path keeps turning in a northeasterly direction towards the end of the week. It looks extremely close to the US, so effects will definitely be felt, but I am now starting to wonder if it's going to make a US landfall at all, or have the eye wall/eye every so slightly brush the east coast. The models have really been shifting around all day. :wacko:
And that is the question of the day! Everyone here keeps asking it... We're just going to have to ride out the next day or two before we start making landfall or not predictions.
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i still don't trust the NHC's forecast, first they say Florida, then GA/SC, and now they say NC.
By Thursday we should find out the true path of Irene.
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i still don't trust the NHC's forecast, first they say Florida, then GA/SC, and now they say NC.
By Thursday we should find out the true path of Irene.
How is that they're fault that the models have been on a east trend the past day or two? When there's enough spread among models they usually take the middle road of them to determine a track.They're not going to make wild shifts in different directions just because models say so, it makes them seem...UGH I can't think of the right word to use, but hopefully you understand what I mean. That's also the reason they were slow on increasing wind speeds to what they are now. I read this morning that they were probably being "generous" on Irene being 100mph, they suspect it's stronger than that, but because it's still so close to Hispaniola, it's proximity is interfering with it's development some which is why we haven't seen an "eye" yet.
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i still don't trust the NHC's forecast, first they say Florida, then GA/SC, and now they say NC.
By Thursday we should find out the true path of Irene.
So what forecast should they have put out? All the models were indicating a FL or Gulf storm. The center reforming to the north threw the models and forecast off as well as other environmental forecast issues. I know a lot of people who live in NC and the Outer Banks who think they know the storm will just curve out to sea. You can not ignore these forecasts and wait until the last minute. Not saying that what you are doing but many people with the same general idea are. Then come Thursday IF the storm actually does make landfall they will be flocking to the stores and crying about how there was no warning. The NHC puts the best forecast out there at the time. It should not be ignored or viewed as bad information.
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im not saying to ignore their forecasts until thursday all i am trying to point out is there maybe a definite and concrete track by Thursday when hopefully both the cone and the models meet on agreement.
I talked with Mike Bettes on facebook and he is looking forward to the 18z model runs, if they continue to move east Irene would miss New England entirely.
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11:00 AM EDT Tue Aug 23
Location: 20.5°N 71.0°W
Max sustained: 100 mph
Moving: WNW at 12 mph
Min pressure: 980 mb
Even if the cone is moved a tad east by hitting Hatteras then Massachusetts, i can't even fathom what damage would happen up here.
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Irene was traveling west for a period of time last night before moving WNW again in the last frames here. I'm assuming NHC took it as a wobble, but any more west wobbles like that will only allow Irene to move further west in it's track coming towards the SE coast. My thinking is a SC/NC hit, yesterday I said SC/GA, but I still don't really want to rule extreme east coast of GA out right now either.
In other words, my confidence is low.
(http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/marti/2011_09L/webManager/gifsBy12hr_04.gif)
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I don't know guys, the way this track keeps moving east, the more I keep thinking the U.S. may dodge a bullet for a direct-hit on this one. Now it looks like Virginia, Delaware, and Maryland are the ones in danger.
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I'm waiting for the 5pm and the 11pm just to see if the models still predict either a Hatteras landfall or a strong surge through the Atlantic.
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Yes, I see it curving back eastward over NC but "touching" again over the Chesapeake Bay and Atlantic City/Cape May. News outlets here in Philly have paid little to no attention about Irene's effects here, though.
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Irene is suffering from some dry air on the SE side and also there is moderate to high wind shear to it's E and NE inhibiting any rapid development.
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Peek -A- Boo, Eye See You!
Eye starting to become visible on visible satellite.
EDIT: Also, Mandatory Evacuation will go into effect on Wednesday at 5am EDT for Ocracoke Island, NC.
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2:00 PM EDT Tue Aug 23
Location: 20.7°N 71.2°W
Max sustained: 100 mph
Moving: WNW at 10 mph
Min pressure: 977 mb
Should Strengthen by 5pm
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All NWS offices in the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic are doing 6-hour upper air launches, and the hurricane hunters are dropping numerous dropsondes in and ahead of Irene. Everything commenced yesterday afternoon and will continue until NHC orders us to stop. All of this extra data is being fed into the models, so I'm not surprised how much change you've all observed in Irene's track over the past 24 hours.
I think the Outer Banks and New England have the highest risk of landfall now. Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina will probably get a close brush as it parallels the coast.
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What's causing the storm to turn? Is there some pressure system over the northeast? :dunno:
I recall someone saying in another thread that conditions this year are not the same as they were last year, but I am almost seeing another Earl on our hands. Still, though, the east coast should be preparing for anything.
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All NWS offices in the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic are doing 6-hour upper air launches, and the hurricane hunters are dropping numerous dropsondes in and ahead of Irene. Everything commenced yesterday afternoon and will continue until NHC orders us to stop. All of this extra data is being fed into the models, so I'm not surprised how much change you've all observed in Irene's track over the past 24 hours.
I think the Outer Banks and New England have the highest risk of landfall now. Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina will probably get a close brush as it parallels the coast.
Fun fact.... each dropsondes cost around 700-800 bucks. Still well worth it though!
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Fun fact.... each dropsondes cost around 700-800 bucks. Still well worth it though!
Just imagine if Republicans get their way and slash NOAA's budget.
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Irene has weakened to 90mph as of 5pm advisory.
(http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT09/refresh/AL0911W5_NL_sm2+gif/205313W5_NL_sm.gif)
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The inflow into Irene is being disrupted by the mountains of Hispaniola, and there is a little westerly shear aloft. Irene will have time to restrengthen once it moves out into the open ocean over the Bahamas.
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8:00 PM EDT Tue Aug 23
Location: 21.1°N 71.8°W
Max sustained: 90 mph
Moving: WNW at 9 mph
Min pressure: 969 mb
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8:00 PM EDT Tue Aug 23
Location: 21.1°N 71.8°W
Max sustained: 90 mph
Moving: WNW at 9 mph
Min pressure: 969 mb
She's pulling an Ike on us, pressure is dropping rapidly while winds are holding steady. I'm sure the winds will play catch up over the next several hours.
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Fun fact.... each dropsondes cost around 700-800 bucks. Still well worth it though!
Just imagine if Republicans get their way and slash NOAA's budget.
Can we stay on the topic of tropics please ;)
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Can we stay on the topic of tropics please ;)
I wish I could respond to you in alliteration, but an "okay" will have to suffice!
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I think the dynamite is about to be lit with Irene, I believe RI (rapid intensification) is occurring. Also the eye is appearing again.
(http://icons-ecast.wunderground.com/data/images/at201109_sat_1_anim.gif)
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I think the dynamite is about to be lit with Irene, I believe RI (rapid intensification) is occurring. Also the eye is appearing again.
if Irene does rapidly intensify, how much do you think the wind speed, wind direction, and how many MB's will the pressure fall?
Forecast Models on Stormpulse (http://www.stormpulse.com/atlantic)
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I think the dynamite is about to be lit with Irene, I believe RI (rapid intensification) is occurring. Also the eye is appearing again.
if Irene does rapidly intensify, how much do you think the wind speed, wind direction, and how many MB's will the pressure fall?
Forecast Models on Stormpulse ([url]http://www.stormpulse.com/atlantic[/url])
Wind speeds I'm thinking 135-145mph (Cat 4) range, but it may weaken some beforehand if it slows down/stalls before making it to NC. As far as pressure, already some early reports of 964mb from hurricane hunters I can see it dropping another 20-35mbs.
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Wobble? :blink:
(http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tc/2011_09L/webManager/gifsBy12hr_04.gif)
Convection starting to wrap/consolidate all around the eye
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-rb.html (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-rb.html)
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11:00 PM EDT Tue Aug 23
Location: 21.3°N 72.4°W
Max sustained: 90 mph
Moving: WNW at 9 mph
Min pressure: 969 mb
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/025713.shtml?gm_track#contents (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/025713.shtml?gm_track#contents)
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NHC forecasts a Cat 1 Hurricane Irene making landfall on NYC on Sunday Night.
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From another forum...
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 24 AUG 2011 Time : 031500 UTC
Lat : 21:10:00 N Lon : 72:09:49 W
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.4 / 954.1mb/ 99.6kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.4 5.8 6.1
Pressure still steadily falling...
Here's a picture of Irene to leave you with before I head off to bed. ;)
(http://img818.imageshack.us/img818/9736/eyepy.png) (http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/818/eyepy.png/)
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Hurricane Irene Satellite and Current Stormtrack from TWC
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5:00 AM EDT Wed Aug 24
Location: 21.6°N 72.9°W
Max sustained: 110 mph
Moving: WNW at 9 mph
Min pressure: 962 mb
NHC: ...IRENE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AS IT POUNDS THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...WILL LIKELY BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE LATER TODAY...
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2011/graphics/al09/loop_5W.shtml (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2011/graphics/al09/loop_5W.shtml)
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Found this interesting from the NHC forecast discussion (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/240846.shtml)
SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH COULD OCCUR IN 1 TO 2 DAYS
DUE TO EYEWALL REPLACEMENTS. IN FACT...THE UW-CIMSS OBJECTIVE
TECHNIQUE SHOWS A CONSIDERABLY HIGHER THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL
PROBABILITY OF SECONDARY EYEWALL FORMATION WITHIN 24 TO 48 HOURS.
THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE NUMERICAL CONSENSUS
AND LIES BETWEEN THE GFDL/HWRF MODELS AND THE LGEM GUIDANCE.
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Irene is officially the first major hurricane of the 2011 hurricane season
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IRENE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 16A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
800 AM EDT WED AUG 24 2011
...IRENE BECOMES A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE....EYE HEADED FOR THE
CROOKED AND ACKLINS ISLANDS...
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Anybody thinks there's a chance Irene could become annular shaped? It seems like a lot of the convection to the east near Haiti/DR is being shredded away from her and she looks more "circular" to me.
(http://icons-ecast.wunderground.com/data/images/at201109_sat_1_anim.gif)
An example of an annular hurricane Isabel (2003)
(http://images-mediawiki-sites.thefullwiki.org/11/2/1/4/9889999316233551.jpg)
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If Irene brushes or completely misses the tip of Cape Hatteras and makes a run towards SE Mass as a Cat 2 or 3 the damage would be catastrophic
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If Irene brushes or completely misses the tip of Cape Hatteras and makes a run towards SE Mass as a Cat 2 or 3 the damage would be catastrophic
Do you sit at a very low elevation and are you gathering up any hurricane supplies to ride it out? Watching Dr. Knabb this morning he brought up what I would consider to be the worst case scenario for the entire northeast region and that is if Irene manages to travel along the gulf stream while at the same time being pulled north by an incoming trough around this weekend she'll probably be moving fast enough that she won't have time to weaken quickly. That's why I also brought up about if Irene could become annular shaped while it's rapidly developing in this thread because from what I've read on them, they can become immune to unfavorable conditions such as cool SST's, wind shear, dry air, etc.
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11:00 AM EDT Wed Aug 24
Location: 22.4°N 73.9°W
Max sustained: 115 mph
Moving: NW at 12 mph
Min pressure: 956 mb
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If Irene brushes or completely misses the tip of Cape Hatteras and makes a run towards SE Mass as a Cat 2 or 3 the damage would be catastrophic
Do you sit at a very low elevation and are you gathering up any hurricane supplies to ride it out?
Yes, if evacuations are out i will ride the storm out my family has enough supplies to last about 2 weeks after the storm.
and i do sit on a very low elevation only 200 feet above sea level
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It's supposed to make 3 landfalls according to Rick Knabb - the Hatteras of NC (cat 3), NJ (cat 2) and maine (cat 1)
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11:00 AM EDT Wed Aug 24
Location: 22.4°N 73.9°W
Max sustained: 115 mph
Moving: NW at 12 mph
Min pressure: 956 mb
It's making that critical NW turn and gone up in speed some.
If Irene brushes or completely misses the tip of Cape Hatteras and makes a run towards SE Mass as a Cat 2 or 3 the damage would be catastrophic
Do you sit at a very low elevation and are you gathering up any hurricane supplies to ride it out?
Yes, if evacuations are out i will ride the storm out my family has enough supplies to last about 2 weeks after the storm.
and i do sit on a very low elevation only 200 feet above sea level
That's great to hear, at least you'll prepared for whatever outcome occurs.
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Updated models putting SE Mass in the Bulls-eye.
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Webcam pic out of Rocky Bay, Abaco Bahamas
EDIT: Unfortunately, this may be the only picture I'll be able to provide from this area as a member from another forum posted the following message. :(
Current forecast have the center of hurricane IRENE passing Rocky Bay Thursday, August 25th, 1930 local time.
The webcam will operate until electricity has been off for about six hours. At that point, the batteries that supply the internet DSL are depleted and connection to the internet is lost. BEC has been shutting down the power grid whenever there is a storm with lightening and it would not suprise me if the power goes out well before Irene arrives.
(http://img109.imageshack.us/img109/9899/hdcam.jpg) (http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/109/hdcam.jpg/)
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I think the 12z model runs were supposed to have the data from the G-IV NOAA planes, if so that would explain why the 12z GFS shifted west.
More bad news model wise, the European model moved west. In fact the center goes right over NYC as a Cat. 2/maybe weak 3, but that would be on the most extreme side of strength.
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2:00 PM EDT Wed Aug 24
Location: 22.7°N 74.3°W
Max sustained: 120 mph
Moving: NW at 12 mph
Min pressure: 954 mb
-
I wonder if NHC will shift their cone back west some now that models are shifting back west?
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Well, from our 5 PM latest advisory, it's looking like Irene will make landfall as a CAT 2 (or perhaps weaker) in CT or RI. NYC will definitely fell effects from the storm.
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As i predicted earlier in the Thread SE Mass will suffer catastrophic damage from Irene. (there is too much emphasis on NC which will probably only see Heavy Rain from Irene)
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Irene is now going through the Eye Replacement Cycle (may fall to either 115mph or 110mph by next update.)
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8:00 PM EDT Wed Aug 24
Location: 23.5°N 75.0°W
Max sustained: 120 mph
Moving: NW at 12 mph
Min pressure: 954 mb
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Wind speeds I'm thinking 135-145mph (Cat 4) range, but it may weaken some beforehand if it slows down/stalls before making it to NC. As far as pressure, already some early reports of 964mb from hurricane hunters I can see it dropping another 20-35mbs.
UPDATE: Eyewall Replacement Cycle is taking longer than I expected so I'm forecasting Irene will max out at 130-140mph now. I think the possibility of a strong Cat. 4 is moderate. Possibility of a Cat. 5 I believe is slim to none. I said yesterday there could be a possibility of it very briefly getting that high, but due to what I said about the ERC, the chances are decreasing as Irene only has about 24hrs or so to show off by ramping up the intensity.
My barometric pressure forecast remains the same. I still believe Irene could bomb between the 920's -930's.
:unsure: Good grief...I'm not sure whether to be amazed by her beauty as a hurricane or frightened by it's massive size.
(http://img6.imageshack.us/img6/5639/capture20110824202848.png) (http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/6/capture20110824202848.png/)
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What is causing Irene to turn? Is there a trough or pressure system over the U.S.? :dunno: I am amazed at how much the track has changed as compared to earlier this week.
Despite the fact that Irene may not be making a "traditional landfall" (go right from water to land), this situation of Irene "skimming" the east coast is probably worse because it's effecting such a long stretch of land with it's most dangerous part: the eye wall.
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What is causing Irene to turn? Is there a trough or pressure system over the U.S.? :dunno: I am amazed at how much the track has changed as compared to earlier this week.
Despite the fact that Irene may not be making a "traditional landfall" (go right from water to land), this situation of Irene "skimming" the east coast is probably worse because it's effecting such a long stretch of land with it's most dangerous part: the eye wall.
To answer the first question, it's because it's traveling along a weakness between the ridge in the Atlantic and the ridge in the Central Plains.
Actually today models have shifted back west as they were indicating that the incoming trough expected to come into the ECONUS later this week was weaker and not digging as far south as it was allowing Irene to move further NW before turning north, also the ridge in the Atlantic has shown up stronger and further west on some models.
In addition, the models should be even more accurate the next several days when forecasting Irene
SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE
NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS CAMP SPRINGS MD
2214Z WED AUG 24 2011
NWSHQ DIRECTIVE TO LAUNCH SIX-HOURLY RAOBS /SOUNDINGS/...
SDM IS HEREBY RELAYING A DIRECTIVE FROM NWSHQ FOR WFO/S
IN ALL OF EASTERN..SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL REGIONS PLUS
MONTANA IN WESTERN REGION TO LAUNCH SIX-HOURLY RAOBS
/SOUNDINGS/ BEGINNING AT THU 25 AUG 06Z AND UNTIL
FURTHER NOTICE. THIS DIRECTIVE IS TO PROVIDE ADDITIONAL
DATA INPUT WHICH SHOULD HELP WITH MODEL GUIDANCE IN
FORECASTING THE FUTURE TRACK AND IMPACTS OF HURRICANE
IRENE.
$$
STOUDT/SDM/NCO/NCEP
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11:00 PM EDT Wed Aug 24
Location: 23.8°N 75.4°W
Max sustained: 120 mph
Moving: NW at 12 mph
Min pressure: 952 mb
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From the 11pm forecast discussion
BECAUSE IRENE IS A LARGE CYCLONE...TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE
WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST OF THE
CAROLINAS EARLY THURSDAY.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/250256.shtml? (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/250256.shtml?)
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2:00 AM EDT Thu Aug 25
Location: 24.2°N 76.0°W
Max sustained: 115 mph
Moving: NW at 12 mph
Min pressure: 950 mb
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I had a hunch that the models would trend back westward in regards to NY/NJ and New England...
Looks like the Megalopolis is gonna get jacked up.
-
(http://img199.imageshack.us/img199/5725/hurricanev.png)
-
As of this morning
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Forecasters in the Midatlantic/NE are gonna have a heck of a hard time with Irene. I'm gaining more doubt on whether it'll even reach Cat 4 intensity before weakening again. ERC seems to be taking forever to finish, but the last I heard the inner eyewall had finally collasped, now the outer eyewall has to pull itself together before it can start intensifying again.
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Emergency Management Bulletin on my IS2. Don't think anyone has recorded one of these in the past
Hurricane Irene- Emergency Management Bulletin ([url]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hC5eRsGTkHo#ws[/url])
Hurricane Watch Scroll under Smokey Skies
Hurricane Watch ([url]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xlyF92O2zWU#ws[/url])
Why did you remove the videos, Martin? :blink:
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Emergency Management Bulletin on my IS2. Don't think anyone has recorded one of these in the past
Hurricane Irene- Emergency Management Bulletin ([url]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mJ-tB3H_pJk#ws[/url])
Hurricane Watch Scroll under Smokey Skies
Hurricane Watch ([url]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oLIQKdGB70s#ws[/url])
Why did you remove the videos, Martin? :blink:
Try The links now in the above quote Andy, he reuploaded them about 1 hr ago.
Here's what the Red box looks like in my area (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xiOi7Qjo-9Y#)
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She's waking up from her long nap!
(http://icons-ecast.wunderground.com/data/images/at201109_sat_2_anim.gif)
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I find it funny how we dodged through 8 fish storms so far this season, and the first hurricane,Irene, causes mass pandemonium amongst everyone.
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As Vivian Brown said the other day, "We are hyping up this storm and rightfully so." Some folks are only looking at the small picture with Irene, it may only be at Cat. 1/2 once it gets past the NC, but she is massive, coming close to Katrina's size and even more bigger since the eyewall replacement cycle hurricane force winds extend out well over 70 miles and tropical storm force winds nearly 300 miles. My concern is not more so the winds for the NE, it's the rain. Irene reminds me so much of Ike, it has a very low pressure equaling out to a Cat. 4, but winds are lagging. Ike was able to do some amazingly devastating damage despite only having Cat. 2 winds. In the case of Irene, the damage risk is much higher because you're talking about
-Irene affecting a very large real estate of population.
-Over saturated soil in the NE making it more easier for trees to fall even if you only experience weak tropical storm winds.
-Flooding/possible high storm surge in some areas.
Noone should be underestimating what Irene has the potential to do. With Irene and any hurricane you should expect the worse and hope for the best.
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Closer shot of Irene's eye
(http://img109.imageshack.us/img109/3028/eyej.png) (http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/109/eyej.png/)
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As Vivian Brown said the other day, "We are hyping up this storm and rightfully so." Some folks are only looking at the small picture with Irene, it may only be at Cat. 1/2 once it gets past the NC, but she is massive, coming close to Katrina's size and even more bigger since the eyewall replacement cycle hurricane force winds extend out well over 70 miles and tropical storm force winds nearly 300 miles. My concern is not more so the winds for the NE, it's the rain. Irene reminds me so much of Ike, it has a very low pressure equaling out to a Cat. 4, but winds are lagging. Ike was able to do some amazingly devastating damage despite only having Cat. 2 winds. In the case of Irene, the damage risk is much higher because you're talking about
-Irene affecting a very large real estate of population.
-Over saturated soil in the NE making it more easier for trees to fall even if you only experience weak tropical storm winds.
-Flooding/possible high storm surge in some areas.
Noone should be underestimating what Irene has the potential to do. With Irene and any hurricane you should expect the worse and hope for the best.
They keep saying NJ, NY and southern MA will be the hardest hit, but I have a feeling it'll be nothing more than just a rainstorm
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They keep saying NJ, NY and southern MA will be the hardest hit, but I have a feeling it'll be nothing more than just a rainstorm
TWC's Hurricane Tracker has the center of the storm passing right over Atlantic City. Are you sure about that? :dunno:
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They keep saying NJ, NY and southern MA will be the hardest hit, but I have a feeling it'll be nothing more than just a rainstorm
TWC's Hurricane Tracker has the center of the storm passing right over Atlantic City. Are you sure about that? :dunno:
And consequently, that's where I live. My house actually faces the boardwalk and when we had several close calls, we got nothing more than just rain and wind. I'm not evacuating though - too much hassle.
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They keep saying NJ, NY and southern MA will be the hardest hit, but I have a feeling it'll be nothing more than just a rainstorm
One thing to keep in mind also: Large hurricanes are slower to weaken and as I said in my post, it's not going to take much wind to cause widespread wind damage due to over saturated grounds in many spots of the NE/ MidAtlantic, that alone can cause some disruption on top of wind damage that could occur from tall buildings/skyscrapers in the form of shattered windows. The further up in stories you go the stronger the winds get since it's causing a "wind tunnel" effect from the tight close proximity of buildings.
As far as Irene stands now Eyewall Replacement Cycle appears to have completed, expect Irene to strengthen over the next 12-18 hours to a Strong Cat. 3
The chances I think Irene has at a run of Cat. 4 before slow weakening: LOW
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Based on what I've seen to this point, it looks like Morehead City, NC could be the first landfall location. It's going to all depend on how the upper-level trough over the Great Lakes interacts with Irene to figure out the exact track towards the New England states.
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http://www.pressofatlanticcity.com/news/breaking/hurricane-irene-a-m-advisory-shows-storm-tracking-directly-over/article_8cfa7bfc-cf08-11e0-aac8-001cc4c002e0.html (http://www.pressofatlanticcity.com/news/breaking/hurricane-irene-a-m-advisory-shows-storm-tracking-directly-over/article_8cfa7bfc-cf08-11e0-aac8-001cc4c002e0.html)
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Jam Packed discussion out of Mt. Holly, NJ - It's the longest discussion I've ever seen if you want to read it, the link is below. I'm quoting the part that really caught my eye.
http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=PHI&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=PHI&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off)
INTERESTING TO NOTE IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG 250 MB JET
NORTH OF THE HURRICANE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, GENERALLY FROM THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SOME OF THE MODELS
INDICATE THAT THE ORIENTATION OF THIS JET IS SUCH THAT IRENE IS
WITHIN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION AS SHE TRACKS NORTHWARD. THIS
SCENARIO COULD HELP WITH A POLEWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW CHANNEL
AND ASSIST IN THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM AS A WHOLE. AS STATED
BEFORE, LOTS TO IRON OUT WITH THE DETAILS AS IT DEPENDS ON THE
EXACT TRACK OF THE CENTER.
Also, I've heard a mandatory evacuation is in effect for Ocean City, MD as well as a State of Emergency for NJ.
EDIT: Webcam from Hollywood Beach, FL - Looks rough to be out on the beach.
http://sugarreefgrill.com/web_photos.html (http://sugarreefgrill.com/web_photos.html)
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Well-defined eye as seen from Miami's 88D:
(http://i.imgur.com/MFk0k.gif)
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Anybody know the max size of Katrina when it was in the Gulf? I know Irene has exceeded Ike in size and I'm pretty sure it will exceed Katrina as well if it hasn't already. As it continues to get better, it continues to grow.
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Whoa, Irene, looks like your track has shifted west a little! :o Looking at TWC's Hurricane Tracker, Irene may now make TWO landfalls: one on the Outer Banks of NC and one in Ocean City, NJ.
Also, to respond to your question Tavores, I thought Ike was bigger in size than Katrina, which means that Irene is bigger than Katrina.
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Whoa, Irene, looks like your track has shifted west a little! :o Looking at TWC's Hurricane Tracker, Irene may now make TWO landfalls: one on the Outer Banks of NC and one in Ocean City, NJ.
Also, to respond to your question Tavores, I thought Ike was bigger in size than Katrina, which means that Irene is bigger than Katrina.
Ah, maybe so. I knew Ike and Katrina were close. Irene might end up bigger than both of them.
Palm Beach, FL :o VERY Angry Waves
http://www.earthcam.com/usa/florida/palmbeach/ (http://www.earthcam.com/usa/florida/palmbeach/)
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Irene seems to be lowering the barometric pressure here... its down to 29.76 inches :blink:
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Irene seems to be lowering the barometric pressure here... its down to 29.76 inches :blink:
I know what you mean. I am in SW FL south of Fort Myers and north of Naples to visit my grandparents and it's quite blustery here, but, hey, I'll take that over getting hit by the hurricane. I've also noticed a lack of lightning with the dark clouds I have seen today. I don't like that very much. :(
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5:00 PM EDT Thu Aug 25
Location: 27.0°N 77.3°W
Max sustained: 115 mph
Moving: NNW at 14 mph
Min pressure: 950 mb
-
Hurricane Watches now in effect for VA to Sandy Hook, NJ.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCVAT4+shtml/252050.shtml? (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCVAT4+shtml/252050.shtml?)
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Whoa, Irene, looks like your track has shifted west a little! :o Looking at TWC's Hurricane Tracker, Irene may now make TWO landfalls: one on the Outer Banks of NC and one in Ocean City, NJ.
Also, to respond to your question Tavores, I thought Ike was bigger in size than Katrina, which means that Irene is bigger than Katrina.
Ocean City is only 5 miles to my south. I might have to evacuate because they're discussing possible mandatory evacuations for those living in Atlantic County
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5 pm advisory:
HURRICANE IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
500 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2011
...IRENE STILL BATTERING ABACO ISLAND...NEW WATCHES AND WARNINGS
ISSUED FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.0N 77.3W
ABOUT 575 MI...930 KM S OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.05 INCHES
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So how many landfalls can hurricanes truly make? :P
If we zoom in very closely on the Hurricane Tracker (which I know isn't 100% accurate), it looks like Irene's center will first strike NC, then pass over many bays (don't know if those count as clearing land or not), brush the coast of Virginia, go back out into the Atlantic or maybe just the Chesapeake Bay, then brush the coast of NJ before passing over the Delaware Bay and striking New York.
BTW, the track has once again shifted slighty west. Ocean City and Atlantic City are now to the EAST of the center.
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So how many landfalls can hurricanes truly make? :P
Technically, it's unlimited. It all depends on its movement, the geography of the land the hurricane passes by, and how long the hurricane can maintain its strength.
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The diameter of Irene's cloud deck is nearly 800 miles. It's a huge storm.
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8:00 PM EDT Thu Aug 25
Location: 27.7°N 77.4°W
Max sustained: 115 mph
Moving: NNW at 14 mph
Min pressure: 946 mb
Rip Current Statement out for SE Mass
COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
503 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2011
...HIGH RISK OF STRONG RIP CURRENTS AND ROUGH SURF...
.THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY SOUTH WINDS THURSDAY AND THE FIRST SET
OF SWELLS FROM HURRICANE IRENE HAVE INCREASED THE RISK FOR STRONG
RIP CURRENTS AND ROUGH SURF AT SOUTH FACING OCEAN BEACHES OF RHODE
ISLAND AND SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS. THE RISK OF STRONG RIP CURRENTS
AND ROUGH SURF WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AND WILL LIKELY INCREASE
FURTHER SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
SWIMMING RESTRICTIONS AND BEACH CLOSURES BY SUNDAY. HEED THE ADVICE OF
LIFEGUARDS AND THE BEACH PATROL. PAY ATTENTION TO FLAGS AND POSTED
SIGNS. RIP CURRENTS CAN BECOME LIFE THREATENING TO ANYONE WHO
ENTERS THE SURF.
MAZ020-022>024-RIZ006>008-260515-
/O.NEW.KBOX.RP.S.0002.110825T2103Z-110826T1000Z/
SOUTHERN BRISTOL MA-BARNSTABLE MA-DUKES MA-NANTUCKET MA-
WASHINGTON RI-NEWPORT RI-BLOCK ISLAND RI-
503 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2011
...RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...
* LOCATION...SOUTH FACING OCEAN BEACHES OF RI AND SOUTHEAST MA.
* RIP CURRENT RISK...MODERATE TO HIGH.
* SURF HEIGHT...3 TO 5 FT WITH A FEW BREAKERS UP TO 7 FT.
* TIMING AND TIDES...BEGINNING THURSDAY AND BECOMING MORE
DANGEROUS INTO THE WEEKEND.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
RIP CURRENTS ARE POWERFUL CHANNELS OF WATER FLOWING AWAY FROM
SHORE...WHICH OCCUR MOST OFTEN AT LOW SPOTS OR BREAKS IN THE
SANDBAR AND IN THE VICINITY OF STRUCTURES SUCH AS JETTIES AND
PIERS. HEED THE ADVICE OF LIFEGUARDS AND THE BEACH PATROL. PAY
ATTENTION TO FLAGS AND POSTED SIGNS. RIP CURRENTS CAN BECOME LIFE
THREATENING TO ANYONE WHO ENTERS THE SURF.
PLEASE VISIT THE FOLLOWING WEBSITE (USE LOWERCASE LETTERS) TO
SHARE YOUR THOUGHTS ON THE NEW RIP CURRENT HAZARD
[url]http://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=RCVTECCHM[/url] ([url]http://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=RCVTECCHM[/url])
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About an hour ago Daytona Beach got slammed by one of Irene's outermost bands. It got dark practically in an instant, it started pouring, and the wind got strong enough to make the rain virtually horizontal. And after about half an hour it was all over. The clouds look so beautiful, though.
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About an hour ago Daytona Beach got slammed by one of Irene's outermost bands. It got dark practically in an instant, it started pouring, and the wind got strong enough to make the rain virtually horizontal. And after about half an hour it was all over. The clouds look so beautiful, though.
Sounds like a "neat" experience. Now you can technically say you've been in a hurricane, but without getting pounded by the worst of it.
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is it just me or did irene just make a NNE turn?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-rb.html (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-rb.html)
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is it just me or did irene just make a NNE turn?
[url]http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-rb.html[/url] ([url]http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-rb.html[/url])
It's probably just a temporary wobble. Large hurricanes like this wobble very erratically.
Look at this microwave image of her as of late, she's basically been on a drunken stumble. :P
(http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tc/2011_09L/webManager/last24hrs.gif)
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is it just me or did irene just make a NNE turn?
[url]http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-rb.html[/url] ([url]http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-rb.html[/url])
Yeah, it probably is a "wobble." Hurricanes can never seem to travle in nice, smooth curves. They've always gotta be all over the place. Maybe they are drunk. :P
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11:00 PM EDT Thu Aug 25
Location: 28.3°N 77.3°W
Max sustained: 115 mph
Moving: N at 14 mph
Min pressure: 942 mb
-
About an hour ago Daytona Beach got slammed by one of Irene's outermost bands. It got dark practically in an instant, it started pouring, and the wind got strong enough to make the rain virtually horizontal. And after about half an hour it was all over. The clouds look so beautiful, though.
Sounds like a "neat" experience. Now you can technically say you've been in a hurricane, but without getting pounded by the worst of it.
I've lived through two hurricanes before (Gloria in 1985 and Bob in 1991) in Massachusetts. If only those two had been as brief as my experience with Irene. :)
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is it just me or did irene just make a NNE turn?
[url]http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-rb.html[/url] ([url]http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-rb.html[/url])
It's probably just a temporary wobble. Large hurricanes like this wobble very erratically.
Look at this microwave image of her as of late, she's basically been on a drunken stumble. :P
([url]http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tc/2011_09L/webManager/last24hrs.gif[/url])
You can say that again! Looks like she's had a few! :bleh:
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Sorry those were broken earlier. People really getting worried here
Emergency Management Bulletin on my IS2. Don't think anyone has recorded one of these in the past
Hurricane Irene- Emergency Management Bulletin (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mJ-tB3H_pJk#ws)
Hurricane Watch Scroll under Smokey Skies
Hurricane Watch- Irene (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oLIQKdGB70s#ws)
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Sorry those were broken earlier. People really getting worried here
Emergency Management Bulletin on my IS2. Don't think anyone has recorded one of these in the past
Hurricane Irene- Emergency Management Bulletin ([url]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mJ-tB3H_pJk#ws[/url])
Hurricane Watch Scroll under Smokey Skies
Hurricane Watch- Irene ([url]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oLIQKdGB70s#ws[/url])
Thanks for posting again, Martin! But why don't you have the red box on The Week Ahead indicating hurricane conditions? Are these not done on the IS2? :dunno:
I also don't like how the Management Bulletin covers up part of the LDL. :thinking:
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Sorry those were broken earlier. People really getting worried here
Emergency Management Bulletin on my IS2. Don't think anyone has recorded one of these in the past
Hurricane Irene- Emergency Management Bulletin ([url]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mJ-tB3H_pJk#ws[/url])
Hurricane Watch Scroll under Smokey Skies
Hurricane Watch- Irene ([url]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oLIQKdGB70s#ws[/url])
Thanks for posting again, Martin! But why don't you have the red box on The Week Ahead indicating hurricane conditions? Are these not done on the IS2? :dunno:
I also don't like how the Management Bulletin covers up part of the LDL. :thinking:
Funny thing is those alerts were for the Outer Banks. No watch was issued for my area until afternoon. Shhh. Don't tell the STAR team. I like my extra alerts :P It was strange how the Hurricane Watch had no information in it.
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as of the 5am Adv CT/MA/NY/RI is under a Hurricane Watch
5:00 AM EDT Fri Aug 26
Location: 29.3°N 77.2°W
Max sustained: 110 mph
Moving: N at 14 mph
Min pressure: 942 mb
-
To be blunt, Hurricane Irene is really getting her ass kicked by the dry air on the SE coast and there's also inreasing shear on the NE side that's playing a factor in why she's been getting progressively worse than better. Not to mention not able to maintain a stable eye for very long, but that doesn't lessen the threat as far as flooding and wind damage goes because of how massive her wind field still is. There's already reports of tropical storm force winds and power outages in SC from extreme outer rain-bands brushing into the area.
EDIT: Notice how the eyewall collapses considerably in the last frames here
(http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tc/2011_09L/webManager/last24hrs.gif)
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-wv.html (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-wv.html)
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11 AM Advisory - Irene now a CAT 2 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 105 mph. Looks like the strength level will continue to drop before Irene makes a CAT 1 landfall east of NYC.
-
I'm recording Irene's live coverage. I miss the storm alert theme :(.
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I'm recording Irene's live coverage. I miss the storm alert theme :(.
I do too. i guess they really did toss Storm Alert out for good. <_<
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2:00 PM EDT Fri Aug 26
Location: 31.2°N 77.5°W
Max sustained: 100 mph
Moving: N at 14 mph
Min pressure: 951 mb
-
It seems like the drought conditions in the Southeast may actually be helping here with all the dry air being advected into Irene. The western portion is becoming quite poor in organization. It doesn't look like it will ever become a major hurricane again as the stronger winds aloft are not being mixed down to the surface. The decreasing water temperatures ahead, increasing wind shear as it gets picked up into the upper-level trough, and the interaction with land are all going to slowly weaken this hurricane. The biggest threats are now waves and storm surge, but the large wind field will still be an issue for many areas.
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Zone A in NYC now under mandatory evacuation. I'm thinking it's time soon for TWC to go wall-to-wall.
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It seems like the drought conditions in the Southeast may actually be helping here with all the dry air being advected into Irene. The western portion is becoming quite poor in organization. It doesn't look like it will ever become a major hurricane again as the stronger winds aloft are not being mixed down to the surface. The decreasing water temperatures ahead, increasing wind shear as it gets picked up into the upper-level trough, and the interaction with land are all going to slowly weaken this hurricane. The biggest threats are now waves and storm surge, but the large wind field will still be an issue for many areas.
Don't forget the flooding...
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Zone A in NYC now under mandatory evacuation. I'm thinking it's time soon for TWC to go wall-to-wall.
I'd say in just a few hours... NC starting to get impacts. I've already had some heavy rain and gusty winds here in SC.
-
Don't forget the flooding...
Yes, that's still a major issue although I don't know how torrential the rainfall will be given the weakening trend and the fact that bands of heavy rain can set up far away from a tropical cyclone. Even though it's only Category 2, I fear the storm surge and waves will be really bad compared to what people may think, which is why I emphasized those threats foremost. Someone in my office this morning mentioned a buoy offshore in the Atlantic that reported 41-foot waves.
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How far inland can those tsunami waves from Irene travel?
-
How far inland can those tsunami waves from Irene travel?
They're not tsunami waves as waves generated from hurricanes have very different characteristics compared to waves generated from an earthquake or a collision. I would be shocked if the waves from Irene reached a mile inland.
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My Star is already having lapses due to the storm: The Bulletins page with Hurricane Watch and Flood Watch disappeared unexpectedly even though im still under those, the Hurricane Watch tab on the LDL during the locals are gone, and the Hurricane Conditions Possible Sunday Red Box is gone.
5:00 PM EDT Fri Aug 26
Location: 31.7°N 77.4°W
Max sustained: 100 mph
Moving: N at 14 mph
Min pressure: 951 mb
Hurricane Warning From MA down to NC
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New York City is now officially under a hurricane warning.
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Wow, Irene is continuing on a long path (although post-tropical). It's not possible that it can re-form by Greenland, can it? :P
(http://i52.tinypic.com/xbz66q.gif)
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BULLETIN
HURRICANE IRENE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 26A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
800 PM EDT FRI AUG 26 2011
...IRENE TURNS TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST...TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS SPREADING INLAND OVER SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.1N 77.2W
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM SSW OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM SSW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.05 INCHES
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So basically Irene could still take the farther eastern track over RI because of the NNE turn?
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So basically Irene could still take the farther eastern track over RI because of the NNE turn?
It can, but it's very unlikely. The center is still right on track with the NHC's track, it was slightly due west of north earlier today.
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Some weather porn. :P
(http://www.gscape.com/images/wx/Irene/Irene_260811_06.jpg)
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Local Report: From SC
Seeing some clearning skys, but a possible rain band coming in from the East in the next few hours... looks like it might stay out of my area though. Saw the sun momentairily before it set. We're still getting some 20MPH winds.
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Tornado Watch #809 in effect for Eastern North Carolina via SPC
WOUS64 KWNS 270008
WOU9
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 809
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
815 PM EDT FRI AUG 26 2011
TORNADO WATCH 809 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 AM EDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS
NCC013-019-031-049-055-095-103-129-133-137-141-177-270900-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0809.110827T0015Z-110827T0900Z/
NC
. NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BEAUFORT BRUNSWICK CARTERET
CRAVEN DARE HYDE
JONES NEW HANOVER ONSLOW
PAMLICO PENDER TYRRELL
AMZ130-135-150-152-154-156-158-250-252-270900-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0809.110827T0015Z-110827T0900Z/
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
ALBEMARLE SOUND
PAMLICO SOUND
COASTAL WATERS FROM CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT TO OREGON INLET NC OUT
20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM OREGON INLET TO CAPE HATTERAS NC OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HATTERAS TO OCRACOKE INLET NC OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM OCRACOKE INLET TO CAPE LOOKOUT NC OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE LOOKOUT TO SURF CITY NC OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM SURF CITY TO CAPE FEAR NC OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE FEAR NC TO LITTLE RIVER INLET SC OUT 20
NM
ATTN...WFO...MHX...ILM...
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0809.html (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0809.html)
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Wrightsville, NC and other webcams
http://www.surfchex.com/index.php (http://www.surfchex.com/index.php)
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I can't believe NY has experienced its first-ever mandatory evacuations! :o To have the "city that never sleeps" come to a halt, especially for the weekend, must be quite something.
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Bryan Norcross said all NYC airports will be closing at noon tomorrow.
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11:00 PM EDT Fri Aug 26
Location: 32.6°N 76.9°W
Max sustained: 100 mph
Moving: NNE at 13 mph
Min pressure: 951 mb
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Well we just evacuated from Atlantic City and am now in Paramus. Now, we're only 7 miles from the Hudson and there could be possible evacuation orders for some parts of BEgen county too. Now, I'll be real pissed if we have to evacuate yet again...
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Seven miles from the Hudson? You and your family should be fine. Check with the hotel...or wherever yall are and ask do they plan on closing if the order is given.
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Irene has been downgraded to a category 1 hurricane with winds of 90 mph. One wonders how much strength it will maintain after crossing over far eastern North Carolina. Certainly, rain and storm surge will remain a threat, especially considering the large size of the hurricane.
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Irene has been downgraded to a category 1 hurricane with winds of 90 mph. One wonders how much strength it will maintain after crossing over far eastern North Carolina. Certainly, rain and storm surge will remain a threat, especially considering the large size of the hurricane.
As you said, storm surge and flooding rains is what will be the problem for the NE, wind was expected to not be a major factor up there except to aid in bringing down trees in oversaturated areas. I'm not sure what the possibility of this happening right now, but there was a possibility going by some of the models with the incoming trough sitting out to the west that the jet-streak winds from that would aid in holding Irene together and maybe even restrengthen her a tad over land which is why said models such as the EURO and GFS were restrengthening her over NYC/LI.
Also as of 7:30am EDT, Hurricane Irene made landfall in Cape Lookout, NC.
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What an incredible hurricane, A Cat 1 and still plowing through strong.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-vis.html (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-vis.html)
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http://i.imgur.com/u47K9.jpg (http://i.imgur.com/u47K9.jpg)
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I find it a little ironic that my vacation a month and a half ago was in the Outer Banks, and now that area is getting hit by a hurricane. I recognized the surroundings during Mike's live segments at Nags Head, NC. I'm glad that I'm not there right now.
Even though we were due to have one hit the United States sooner or later, I hope you all realize how much worse this situation could have been. What if this had occurred one week later during Labor Day weekend when a lot of people would be out traveling? What if it was still a Category 3 hurricane or higher heading northward along the coast? We've really dodged a major bullet here when you think about it.
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Even though we were due to have one hit the United States sooner or later, I hope you all realize how much worse this situation could have been. What if this had occurred one week later during Labor Day weekend when a lot of people would be out traveling? What if it was still a Category 3 hurricane or higher heading northward along the coast? We've really dodged a major bullet here when you think about it.
That's for sure. :yes: I hate to say this situation of Irene now is a "good" one (because a hurricane hitting the US is obviously not), but we were originally expecting a CAT 3 to hit. I really am starting to question how bad this will be. Are people going overboard in talking about the possible effects, or not? :dunno:
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Even though we were due to have one hit the United States sooner or later, I hope you all realize how much worse this situation could have been. What if this had occurred one week later during Labor Day weekend when a lot of people would be out traveling? What if it was still a Category 3 hurricane or higher heading northward along the coast? We've really dodged a major bullet here when you think about it.
That's for sure. :yes: I hate to say this situation of Irene now is a "good" one (because a hurricane hitting the US is obviously not), but we were originally expecting a CAT 3 to hit. I really am starting to question how bad this will be. Are people going overboard in talking about the possible effects, or not? :dunno:
The biggest thing everyone should be focusing on is the flooding. Already areas of E. NC picking up 12-15 inches of rain and still raining in some of those areas. I've seen a picture of flood waters already close to the roof of a house. When I find it again, I'll post it here. The flooding makes me think of TS Allison from 2001. She's crawling to move NE.
Here's a picture posted on another forum from New Bern, NC.
(http://forums.accuweather.com/uploads/post-21140-1314473612.jpg)
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Getting increasingly cloudy in New Hampshire, it's actually been a very still and muggy day so far. Here on the VT border the biggest concern is 4-8 inches of rain with widespread flooding, and possible trees down because of saturated ground. Even if the storm weakens wind-wise the rain/flooding threat won't diminish.
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Although effects from Irene are certainly spanning over a wide range of land, Irene took a directly north track through the overnight hours, making the center now even closer to the shore.
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Here's the picture from NC of the flooding reaching near the roof of a beachhouse I mentioned on the last page.
(http://wwwcache.wral.com/asset/golo/2011/08/27/10053881/4e59193d-6c41-3e74-d6a3-a8aa6f633694-480x360.jpg)
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Irene has weakened again as of the 5 PM advisory. Winds are 80 mph, as the hurricane continues its path to the NNE at about 13 mph. The NHC stated that in high-rise areas, wind speeds are increased by 20% upwards of 30 floors, and up to 30% or higher at 80-100 floors.
Assuming that Irene arrives in New York as expected (strong tropical storm), here are the wind speed forecasts by altitude.
Ground speed: 70 mph.
30 floors up: 84 mph.
80-100 floors: 91 mph or higher.
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Here's the updated Estimated Precipitation from Irene so far.
http://water.weather.gov/precip/ (http://water.weather.gov/precip/)
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2 million in the dark in Virginia, adding in the other outages on the East Coast, I would estimate were from 3.0 - 3.5 million.
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The tornado sirens are going off here and a tornado warning has been issued 3 counties south. Don't know if I should head to the basement yet as Bergen county is not under a warning yet
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Landfall made in New York City at 9:00 AM EDT.
000
WTNT64 KNHC 281302
TCUAT4
TROPICAL STORM IRENE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
900 AM EDT SUN AUG 28 2011
...CENTER OF IRENE MOVES OVER NEW YORK CITY...
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT AND NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF IRENE
MOVED OVER NEW YORK CITY AROUND 900 AM EDT...1300 UTC. IRENE HAS
WEAKENED TO A TROPICAL STORM AND THE ESTIMATED INTENSITY AT
LANDFALL WAS 65 MPH...100 KM/H.
SUMMARY OF 900 AM EDT...1300 UTC...INFORMATION
--------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...40.7N 74.0W
ABOUT 0 MI...0 KM N OF NEW YORK CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 26 MPH...43 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
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As of 9 AM EDT, Hurricane Irene weakened enough to become a very strong tropical storm.
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Why did you make a whole new topic? :blink: A new post in the Irene thread would do just as good...
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Why did you make a whole new topic? :blink: A new post in the Irene thread would do just as good...
Oh. I didn't know there was one.
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Irene already caused a Major power outage here in Fall River, New Bedford, and all of SE Mass as of 10:30am as far as I know the New Bedford/Fall River IS and the Brockton MA Weatherscan are both down.
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Nathan, please browse around the forum more when you make a topic as there's a good chance we already have a thread running for your subject such as this one. I've already merged your posts here. Irene is down to 60 mph now as of the 11 AM EDT advisory. It actually tracked over New York City at 9 AM EDT, so we certainly dodged a major bullet here as it could have been disastrous if it was still a major hurricane.
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Yup, there was minor flooding and little wind damage here in Atlantic City, but a tornado did touch down 5 miles northeast. We certainly dodged a major bullet, but I'm sure Irene was a wake up call to those living on the east coast though
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total outage up to 201, 213 in MA without power as of noon (via cell phone)
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We certainly dodged a major bullet
Fortunately many areas suffered very little damage. A lot of downed trees and power lines along with some serious flooding, but no major structural damage that I've seen. I don't expect to see the name "Irene" being retired this year.
After Irene: Little damage seen in many places (http://news.yahoo.com/irene-little-damage-seen-many-places-135226709.html)
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Tropical Storm Irene has sustained winds of 50 mph as of 5 PM EDT. Of course, TWC is showing only the worst impacts that this storm caused, but overall a TS in NYC was certainly not as bad as a MAJOR hurricane.
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Damage in my yard
(http://img194.imageshack.us/img194/2839/img3497rh.jpg)
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Damage in my yard
Wow that is some massive damage, at least you and hopefully everyone you know is fine after Irene.
after the 5hr+ power outage here in MA i was able to upload what Irene did while she was cutting through the Mid-Atlantic and New England
WeatherScan Local Forecasts with Hurricane Irene (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wVgZ-C0gJMk#)
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Irene has become post-tropical and will no longer be followed by the National Hurricane Center. She will still cause gusty winds across parts of the Northeast through Monday, however.
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Looks like Irene is going to bring some rain to Greeland or Iceland. Don't know why the NHC has the projected path going out that far, since the system is already post-tropical. :blink:
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Will Irene be retired or reused again in 2017?
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Will Irene be retired or reused again in 2017?
That most likely won't be decided until next Spring.
EDIT: Yesterday and today after seeing all the devastating flooding and the fact that the death toll has increased to 37 today in the US (I death I know of in PR) I personally think Irene will be retired. Estimates are already approaching the 10 Billion mark in the US alone