Hurricane Irene

[toxictwister00]

NHC forecasts a Cat 1 Hurricane Irene making landfall on NYC on Sunday Night.

[toxictwister00]

From another forum...

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 24 AUG 2011 Time : 031500 UTC
Lat : 21:10:00 N Lon : 72:09:49 W

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.4 / 954.1mb/ 99.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.4 5.8 6.1

Pressure still steadily falling...

Here's a picture of Irene to leave you with before I head off to bed. 

[wachirawits12]

Hurricane Irene Satellite and Current Stormtrack from TWC

[gt1racerlHDl]

5:00 AM EDT Wed Aug 24
Location: 21.6°N 72.9°W
Max sustained: 110 mph
Moving: WNW at 9 mph
Min pressure: 962 mb

NHC: ...IRENE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AS IT POUNDS THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...WILL LIKELY BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE LATER TODAY...

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2011/graphics/al09/loop_5W.shtml

[gt1racerlHDl]

Found this interesting from the NHC forecast discussion

SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH COULD OCCUR IN 1 TO 2 DAYS
DUE TO EYEWALL REPLACEMENTS.  IN FACT...THE UW-CIMSS OBJECTIVE
TECHNIQUE SHOWS A CONSIDERABLY HIGHER THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL
PROBABILITY OF SECONDARY EYEWALL FORMATION WITHIN 24 TO 48 HOURS.
THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE NUMERICAL CONSENSUS
AND LIES BETWEEN THE GFDL/HWRF MODELS AND THE LGEM GUIDANCE.

[toxictwister00]

Irene is officially the first major hurricane of the 2011 hurricane season


BULLETIN
HURRICANE IRENE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  16A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092011
800 AM EDT WED AUG 24 2011

...IRENE BECOMES A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE....EYE HEADED FOR THE
CROOKED AND ACKLINS ISLANDS...

[toxictwister00]

Anybody thinks there's a chance Irene could become annular shaped? It seems like a lot of the convection to the east near Haiti/DR is being shredded away from her and she looks more "circular" to me.



An example of an annular hurricane Isabel (2003)

[gt1racerlHDl]

If Irene brushes or completely misses the tip of Cape Hatteras and makes a run towards SE Mass as a Cat 2 or 3 the damage would be catastrophic

[toxictwister00]

If Irene brushes or completely misses the tip of Cape Hatteras and makes a run towards SE Mass as a Cat 2 or 3 the damage would be catastrophic

Do you sit at a very low elevation and are you gathering up any hurricane supplies to ride it out? Watching Dr. Knabb this morning he brought up what I would consider to be the worst case scenario for the entire northeast region and that is if Irene manages to travel along the gulf stream while at the same time being pulled north by an incoming trough around this weekend she'll probably be moving fast enough that she won't have time to weaken quickly. That's why I also brought up about if Irene could become annular shaped while it's rapidly developing in this thread because from what I've read on them, they can become immune to unfavorable conditions such as cool SST's, wind shear, dry air, etc.

[wachirawits12]

11:00 AM EDT Wed Aug 24
Location: 22.4°N 73.9°W
Max sustained: 115 mph
Moving: NW at 12 mph
Min pressure: 956 mb

[gt1racerlHDl]

If Irene brushes or completely misses the tip of Cape Hatteras and makes a run towards SE Mass as a Cat 2 or 3 the damage would be catastrophic

Do you sit at a very low elevation and are you gathering up any hurricane supplies to ride it out?

Yes, if evacuations are out i will ride the storm out my family has enough supplies to last about 2 weeks after the storm.

and i do sit on a very low elevation only 200 feet above sea level

[Localonthe8s]

It's supposed to make 3 landfalls according to Rick Knabb - the Hatteras of NC (cat 3), NJ (cat 2) and maine (cat 1)

[toxictwister00]

11:00 AM EDT Wed Aug 24
Location: 22.4°N 73.9°W
Max sustained: 115 mph
Moving: NW at 12 mph
Min pressure: 956 mb

It's making that critical NW turn and gone up in speed some.

If Irene brushes or completely misses the tip of Cape Hatteras and makes a run towards SE Mass as a Cat 2 or 3 the damage would be catastrophic

Do you sit at a very low elevation and are you gathering up any hurricane supplies to ride it out?

Yes, if evacuations are out i will ride the storm out my family has enough supplies to last about 2 weeks after the storm.

and i do sit on a very low elevation only 200 feet above sea level

That's great to hear, at least you'll prepared for whatever outcome occurs.

[gt1racerlHDl]

Updated models putting SE Mass in the Bulls-eye.

[toxictwister00]

Webcam pic out of  Rocky Bay, Abaco Bahamas

EDIT: Unfortunately, this may be the only picture I'll be able to provide from this area as a member from another forum posted the following message. 

Current forecast have the center of hurricane IRENE passing Rocky Bay Thursday, August 25th, 1930 local time.

The webcam will operate until electricity has been off for about six hours. At that point, the batteries that supply the internet DSL are depleted and connection to the internet is lost. BEC has been shutting down the power grid whenever there is a storm with lightening and it would not suprise me if the power goes out well before Irene arrives.