Hurricane Irene

[phw115wvwx]

All NWS offices in the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic are doing 6-hour upper air launches, and the hurricane hunters are dropping numerous dropsondes in and ahead of Irene.  Everything commenced yesterday afternoon and will continue until NHC orders us to stop.  All of this extra data is being fed into the models, so I'm not surprised how much change you've all observed in Irene's track over the past 24 hours.

I think the Outer Banks and New England have the highest risk of landfall now.  Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina will probably get a close brush as it parallels the coast.

[WeatherWitness]

What's causing the storm to turn? Is there some pressure system over the northeast?

I recall someone saying in another thread that conditions this year are not the same as they were last year, but I am almost seeing another Earl on our hands. Still, though, the east coast should be preparing for anything.

[TWCToday]

All NWS offices in the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic are doing 6-hour upper air launches, and the hurricane hunters are dropping numerous dropsondes in and ahead of Irene.  Everything commenced yesterday afternoon and will continue until NHC orders us to stop.  All of this extra data is being fed into the models, so I'm not surprised how much change you've all observed in Irene's track over the past 24 hours.

I think the Outer Banks and New England have the highest risk of landfall now.  Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina will probably get a close brush as it parallels the coast.

Fun fact.... each dropsondes cost around 700-800 bucks. Still well worth it though!

[Eric]

Fun fact.... each dropsondes cost around 700-800 bucks. Still well worth it though!

Just imagine if Republicans get their way and slash NOAA's budget.

[toxictwister00]

Irene has weakened to 90mph as of 5pm advisory.

[phw115wvwx]

The inflow into Irene is being disrupted by the mountains of Hispaniola, and there is a little westerly shear aloft.  Irene will have time to restrengthen once it moves out into the open ocean over the Bahamas.

[gt1racerlHDl]

8:00 PM EDT Tue Aug 23
Location: 21.1°N 71.8°W
Max sustained: 90 mph
Moving: WNW at 9 mph
Min pressure: 969 mb

[toxictwister00]

8:00 PM EDT Tue Aug 23
Location: 21.1°N 71.8°W
Max sustained: 90 mph
Moving: WNW at 9 mph
Min pressure: 969 mb

She's pulling an Ike on us, pressure is dropping rapidly while winds are holding steady. I'm sure the winds will play catch up over the next several hours.

[TWCToday]

Fun fact.... each dropsondes cost around 700-800 bucks. Still well worth it though!

Just imagine if Republicans get their way and slash NOAA's budget.

Can we stay on the topic of tropics please

[Eric]

Can we stay on the topic of tropics please

I wish I could respond to you in alliteration, but an "okay" will have to suffice!

[toxictwister00]

I think the dynamite is about to be lit with Irene, I believe RI (rapid intensification) is occurring. Also the eye is appearing again.

[gt1racerlHDl]

I think the dynamite is about to be lit with Irene, I believe RI (rapid intensification) is occurring. Also the eye is appearing again.

if Irene does rapidly intensify, how much do you think the wind speed, wind direction, and how many MB's will the pressure fall?

Forecast Models on Stormpulse

[toxictwister00]

I think the dynamite is about to be lit with Irene, I believe RI (rapid intensification) is occurring. Also the eye is appearing again.

if Irene does rapidly intensify, how much do you think the wind speed, wind direction, and how many MB's will the pressure fall?

Forecast Models on Stormpulse

Wind speeds I'm thinking 135-145mph (Cat 4) range, but it may weaken some beforehand if it slows down/stalls before making it to NC. As far as pressure, already some early reports of 964mb from hurricane hunters I can see it dropping another 20-35mbs.

[toxictwister00]

Wobble?



Convection starting to wrap/consolidate all around the eye
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-rb.html

[gt1racerlHDl]

11:00 PM EDT Tue Aug 23
Location: 21.3°N 72.4°W
Max sustained: 90 mph
Moving: WNW at 9 mph
Min pressure: 969 mb

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/025713.shtml?gm_track#contents