Hurricane Irene

[Mr. Rainman]

NHC mentioned in their advisory that the 00Z model guidance run would a lot of recon data imported into the models. Looking at the new runs, the models farther and farther north. If anything, the new threat has now shifted north again...with Wilmington possibly towards Virginia in the crossheirs. Savannah and Charleston may not see as drastic effects as previously thought.

[WeatherWitness]

Depending on how some people want to look at the situation, it's either unfortunate or a good thing that Irene's projected path keeps turning in a northeasterly direction towards the end of the week. It looks extremely close to the US, so effects will definitely be felt, but I am now starting to wonder if it's going to make a US landfall at all, or have the eye wall/eye every so slightly brush the east coast. The models have really been shifting around all day.

[Donovan]

Depending on how some people want to look at the situation, it's either unfortunate or a good thing that Irene's projected path keeps turning in a northeasterly direction towards the end of the week. It looks extremely close to the US, so effects will definitely be felt, but I am now starting to wonder if it's going to make a US landfall at all, or have the eye wall/eye every so slightly brush the east coast. The models have really been shifting around all day.

And that is the question of the day! Everyone here keeps asking it... We're just going to have to ride out the next day or two before we start making landfall or not predictions.

[gt1racerlHDl]

i still don't trust the NHC's forecast, first they say Florida, then GA/SC, and now they say NC.

By Thursday we should find out the true path of Irene.

[toxictwister00]

i still don't trust the NHC's forecast, first they say Florida, then GA/SC, and now they say NC.

By Thursday we should find out the true path of Irene.

How is that they're fault that the models have been on a east trend the past day or two? When there's enough spread among models they usually take the middle road of them to determine a track.They're not going to make wild shifts in different directions just because models say so, it makes them seem...UGH I can't think of the right word to use, but hopefully you understand what I mean. That's also the reason they were slow on increasing wind speeds to what they are now. I read this morning that they were probably being "generous" on Irene being 100mph, they suspect it's stronger than that, but because it's still so close to Hispaniola, it's proximity is interfering with it's development some which is why we haven't seen an "eye" yet.

[TWCToday]

i still don't trust the NHC's forecast, first they say Florida, then GA/SC, and now they say NC.

By Thursday we should find out the true path of Irene.

So what forecast should they have put out? All the models were indicating a FL or Gulf storm. The center reforming to the north threw the models and forecast off as well as other environmental forecast issues. I know a lot of people who live in NC and the Outer Banks who think they know the storm will just curve out to sea. You can not ignore these forecasts and wait until the last minute. Not saying that what you are doing but many people with the same general idea are. Then come Thursday IF the storm actually does make landfall they will be flocking to the stores and crying about how there was no warning.  The NHC puts the best forecast out there at the time. It should not be ignored or viewed as bad information.

[gt1racerlHDl]

im not saying to ignore their forecasts until thursday all i am trying to point out is there maybe a definite and concrete track by Thursday when hopefully both the cone and the models meet on agreement.

I talked with Mike Bettes on facebook and he is looking forward to the 18z model runs, if they continue to move east Irene would miss New England entirely.

[gt1racerlHDl]

11:00 AM EDT Tue Aug 23
Location: 20.5°N 71.0°W
Max sustained: 100 mph
Moving: WNW at 12 mph
Min pressure: 980 mb

Even if the cone is moved a tad east by hitting Hatteras then Massachusetts, i can't even fathom what damage would happen up here.

[toxictwister00]

Irene was traveling west for a period of time last night before moving WNW again in the last frames here. I'm assuming NHC took it as a wobble, but any more west wobbles like that will only allow Irene to move further west in it's track coming towards the SE coast. My thinking is a SC/NC hit, yesterday I said SC/GA, but I still don't really want to rule extreme east coast of GA out right now either.

In other words, my confidence is low.

[WeatherWitness]

I don't know guys, the way this track keeps moving east, the more I keep thinking the U.S. may dodge a bullet for a direct-hit on this one. Now it looks like Virginia, Delaware, and Maryland are the ones in danger.

[gt1racerlHDl]

I'm waiting for the 5pm and the 11pm just to see if the models still predict either a Hatteras landfall or a strong surge through the Atlantic.

[Localonthe8s]

Yes, I see it curving back eastward over NC but "touching" again over the Chesapeake Bay and Atlantic City/Cape May. News outlets here in Philly have paid little to no attention about Irene's effects here, though.

[toxictwister00]

Irene is suffering from some dry air on the SE side and also there is moderate to high wind shear to it's E and NE inhibiting any rapid development.

[toxictwister00]

Peek -A- Boo, Eye See You!

Eye starting to become visible on visible satellite.

EDIT: Also, Mandatory Evacuation will go into effect on Wednesday at 5am EDT for Ocracoke Island, NC.

[gt1racerlHDl]

2:00 PM EDT Tue Aug 23
Location: 20.7°N 71.2°W
Max sustained: 100 mph
Moving: WNW at 10 mph
Min pressure: 977 mb

Should Strengthen by 5pm