Hurricane Irene

[toxictwister00]

I forgot to mention this earlier, but there were 16 NWS offices that were supposed to be releasing weather balloons today to help in relaying more accurate data pertaining to Irene.

These are the cities I can recall from the top of my head that were asked to do this by RECON hurricane hunters, I'll see if I can find the actual text from the NHC.

Peachtree City (Atlanta)
Birmingham
Tampa
Miami
Jacksonville
Charleston

18z HWRF  That's all I can say. Not only did it shift west, it implies GA/SC hit, Savannah right in the crosshairs.

[gt1racerlHDl]

7:50pm ADV:

Location: 19.7°N 68.7°W
Max sustained: 100 mph
Moving: WNW at 10 mph
Min pressure: 981 mb

Special Adv at 8:15pm

[wachirawits12]

I've just heard the RECON finding winds anywhere from 90-120mph...

[Trevor]

8:15 PM ET Special Advisory

Updated Track:

Category: 2
Wind: 100 MPH
Moving: WNW at 10 MPH
Pressure: 981 mb

Here's something interesting that I realized, NHC forecasted a 17% chance that Irene would become a Category 2 by tomorrow. Could this be a sign that Irene is showing some intensification that wasn't previously expected?

EDIT: Looks like the above prediction was right. NHC now forecasting a MAJOR Category 3 storm even earlier, and a possible Category 4. This is gonna be a big one.

[gt1racerlHDl]

Updated track on TWC shows up to 125mph in the Bahamas and 110 before landfall, but the models should hopefully be updated by tomorrow morning maybe pointing either east or west.

Also looks like the percentages for Cat 4 are around 12% to 14% 36 to 48hrs out.

[toxictwister00]

8:15 PM ET Special Advisory

Updated Track:

Category: 2
Wind: 100 MPH
Moving: WNW at 10 MPH
Pressure: 981 mb

Here's something interesting that I realized, NHC forecasted a 17% chance that Irene would become a Category 2 by tomorrow. Could this be a sign that Irene is showing some intensification that wasn't previously expected?

EDIT: Looks like the above prediction was right. NHC now forecasting a MAJOR Category 3 storm even earlier, and a possible Category 4. This is gonna be a big one.

It's been modeled for Irene to go through rapid intensification as she approaches the Bahamas which is why so many models bomb her as low as the 910's and 920's pressure wise. That would also suggest possible weak Cat 5 if that occurred.

Here's the chart

[toxictwister00]

Here's a microwave image of Irene's eye. The northside is strong, the southside still has some work to do in order for that eye to come out, it's almost there.

[TWCToday]

I forgot to mention this earlier, but there were 16 NWS offices that were supposed to be releasing weather balloons today to help in relaying more accurate data pertaining to Irene.

Well releasing more at least. Starting at 18z upper air obs are being taken every 6hrs in some locations

[gt1racerlHDl]

11:00 PM AST Mon Aug 22
Location: 19.9°N 69.2°W
Max sustained: 100 mph
Moving: WNW at 12 mph
Min pressure: 980 mb

[Mr. Rainman]

Forecasting winds of 135 mph 72 hours out. Dang.

[gt1racerlHDl]

Forecasting winds of 135 mph 72 hours out. Dang.

Like Tavores pointed out, i won't be surprised if they upped it to low cat 5 status 72hrs out.

[WeatherWitness]

MAJOR hurricane status expected for tomorrow evening. CAT 4 may be possible for Thursday evening. I feel like the track is back to what it originally was before the 8 PM advisory...that is, slightly shifted eastward again and more of a curve to the northeast. Savannah, could you be spared?

[TWCToday]

MAJOR hurricane status expected for tomorrow evening. CAT 4 may be possible for Thursday evening. I feel like the track is back to what it originally was before the 8 PM advisory...that is, slightly shifted eastward again and more of a curve to the northeast. Savannah, could you be spared?

Thinking more of a Cat 4 rather than 5 but could be interesting.

[twcfan68]

Well, tropical systems always seem to do the exact opposite of what I predict. I predicted it was going to get torn apart by the high mountains of Cuba. Now I know how to predict hurricanes, lol.

All I can say is that I really look forward to TWC's coverage of Irene, regardless of how strong it gets. I think hurricanes (and Jim's thundersnow ) are TWC's best coverages. I'll be interested to see what it does, but I really hope that people on the east coast start preparing ASAP. You definitely don't want to see if it's going to hit you or not before you get those batteries. I know from experience that they disappear like crazy.

[TWCToday]

Well, tropical systems always seem to do the exact opposite of what I predict. I predicted it was going to get torn apart by the high mountains of Cuba. Now I know how to predict hurricanes, lol.

All I can say is that I really look forward to TWC's coverage of Irene, regardless of how strong it gets. I think hurricanes (and Jim's thundersnow ) are TWC's best coverages. I'll be interested to see what it does, but I really hope that people on the east coast start preparing ASAP. You definitely don't want to see if it's going to hit you or not before you get those batteries. I know from experience that they disappear like crazy.

Indeed their coverage is remarkable! Your prediction would have been probably right if the storm had crossed that area