Hurricane Irene

[Zach]

Latest track now has Irene to become a Major Hurricane

[toxictwister00]

Latest track now has Irene to become a Major Hurricane

Quite a noticeable shift eastward from the last cone...I'm not surprised to see they finally added (M) major hurricane to their 5 day cone, I figured it was coming sooner or later.

[Mr. Rainman]

Looking at the models and NHC track, there are now two likely scenarios in my eyes:

1.) Irene curves northwest and then north earlier than the track predicts, and curves away from the United States, causing high surf and rip currents along the coastline. This option is possible, especially if the models keeping shifting east.

2.) It looks like, according to current models, the current risk zone is now more the Georgia coastline up to North Carolina. My guess is that landfall is a possibility anywhere from Charleston to the Outer Banks, with the highest risk existing around northeastern South Carolina (Myrtle Beach) to Wilmington. Highest winds forecasted sit at 115 mph, although looking at environmental conditions, I still think this is a tiny bit conservative.

[toxictwister00]

Looking at the models and NHC track, there are now two likely scenarios in my eyes:

1.) Irene curves northwest and then north earlier than the track predicts, and curves away from the United States, causing high surf and rip currents along the coastline. This option is possible, especially if the models keeping shifting east.

2.) It looks like, according to current models, the current risk zone is now more the Georgia coastline up to North Carolina. My guess is that landfall is a possibility anywhere from Charleston to the Outer Banks, with the highest risk existing around northeastern South Carolina (Myrtle Beach) to Wilmington. Highest winds forecasted sit at 115 mph, although looking at environmental conditions, I still think this is a tiny bit conservative.

It's interesting, I don't buy into the OTS idea, I still think a US hit is more likely. Hopefully things will be more clearer tonight on the 0z runs because the RECON hurricane hunters will be ingesting data into and out ahead of Irene today so that should help put some pieces of the puzzle together. Until then I'm still sticking with my prediction of a GA/SC hit, I can't really rule out NC either.

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092011
1100 AM AST MON AUG 22 2011

...IRENE FORECAST TO PASS JUST TO THE NORTH OF HISPANIOLA...

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.2N 67.5W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM WNW OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM NE OF PUNTA CANA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/221503.shtml?

[toxictwister00]

I wasn't initially going to go higher than 120mph, but right now I don't see anything stopping it from reaching a high end Cat 3.

[gt1racerlHDl]

Irene already showing up on my 7Day

[TWCToday]

GFS takes it just to the OBX and off the coast. Another Earlish track? Its hard to tell when the models are going to stop moving east with the track

[TWCToday]

[toxictwister00]

Everything seems to keep blowing up on the northside, I wonder if the COC will jump north again...

[gt1racerlHDl]

Adv: 2:00 PM AST Mon Aug 22
Location: 19.3°N 68.1°W
Max sustained: 80 mph
Moving: WNW at 12 mph
Min pressure: 989 mb

[toxictwister00]

GFS takes it just to the OBX and off the coast. Another Earlish track? Its hard to tell when the models are going to stop moving east with the track

A member from another forum posted from Henry M.'s (Accuweather) facebook page this about the 12z GFS.

It appears there is a problem with the GFS mid-range around 108 hours and after... problem is with the jet stream depiction, which is important for steering influence.

It's exaggerating the trough digging in the W Great Lakes kicking it too far east. Clearly visible on 500mb as a glaring error on the 12z GFS.

Another met said the same...

"‎12Z MONDAY AUG 22 GFS MODEL UDPATE - the 12 gfs continues to bend IRENE North well east of FLORIDA... much like we saw with Irene in 1999. The Model has landfall at WILMINGTON NC. But the 12z GFS has a ERRRO in its Jet stream pattern at day 5 thru day 7 which causes the Model to bend IRENE further East.... BE CAREFUL USING THE GFS PAST 120 HRS"

http://www.facebook.com/WxRisk

[Pop Light Brown]

Looking at the models and NHC track, there are now two likely scenarios in my eyes:

1.) Irene curves northwest and then north earlier than the track predicts, and curves away from the United States, causing high surf and rip currents along the coastline. This option is possible, especially if the models keeping shifting east.

2.) It looks like, according to current models, the current risk zone is now more the Georgia coastline up to North Carolina. My guess is that landfall is a possibility anywhere from Charleston to the Outer Banks, with the highest risk existing around northeastern South Carolina (Myrtle Beach) to Wilmington. Highest winds forecasted sit at 115 mph, although looking at environmental conditions, I still think this is a tiny bit conservative.

Oh she's gonna hit land, ending the streak of fish storms. I'll bring the southern landfall possibility southward toward Hilton Head Island. I think 115 mph is a bit conservative too. It wouldn't surprise me if Irene gets to 130 mph.

[WeatherWitness]

Wow!!! So much can happen within twelve hours! Irene has the potential of becoming one monster of a hurricane, and may become not only our first hurricane but first major hurricane of the 2011 Atlantic season.

The BIG question: will it curve away from the U.S. or make landfall??? As stated earlier, Savannah, GA and some east coast cities are overdue for a hurricane, but I don't want to make that bad luck for anyone.

I commend those of you who were predicting the eastward shift of Irene and higher intensity levels earlier this week. You guys were accurate!

[toxictwister00]

Wow!!! So much can happen within twelve hours! Irene has the potential of becoming one monster of a hurricane, and may become not only our first hurricane but first major hurricane of the 2011 Atlantic season.

The BIG question: will it curve away from the U.S. or make landfall??? As stated earlier, Savannah, GA and some east coast cities are overdue for a hurricane, but I don't want to make that bad luck for anyone.

I commend those of you who were predicting the eastward shift of Irene and higher intensity levels earlier this week. You guys were accurate!

The eastward trend of the models may be done, the EURO one of the first to start the trend east has shifted back west slightly. As I said in an earlier post, the models will have a lot more reliable data ingested in by the 0z runs tonight so that should help in figuring things out more easier as far as the track.

[gt1racerlHDl]

Updated: