Hurricane Irene

[toxictwister00]

Are you kidding me The National Hurricane center put their newest cone almost exactly the same as me and also almost exact same Wind Speed

It was pretty close to my last forecasted track too, although mine is slightly more east right offshore of the east coast of FL.

[Mr. Rainman]

Am I the only one here who finds forecasting tropical tracks and intensities highly interesting? I'm really enjoying looking at everyone's tracks and predictions. 

[toxictwister00]

Am I the only one here who finds forecasting tropical tracks and intensities highly interesting? I'm really enjoying looking at everyone's tracks and predictions. 

I do, that's why I have been posting in here so much.  I have the 2004 and 2005 Hurricane Season to thank drawing my interest. I had some interest in hurricanes before then, but those two seasons brought it full circle for me, I definitely have a higher respect for them.

[toxictwister00]

000
URNT12 KNHC 220520
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092011
A. 22/05:06:10Z
B. 18 deg 05 min N
065 deg 40 min W
C. 850 mb 1352 m
D. 55 kt
E. 043 deg 11 nm
F. 130 deg 78 kt
G. 043 deg 11 nm
H. 991 mb
I. 16 C / 1522 m
J. 20 C / 1516 m
K. 17 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF302 0309A IRENE OB 14
MAX FL WIND 78 KT NE QUAD 05:02:30Z

Expect Hurricane Irene by 2am Advisory.

I'm gonna say it'll be between 80-90 mph.

[Eric]

At 1:25 am Irene made landfall on Puerto Rico.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCUAT4+shtml/220530.shtml

[TWCToday]

Now officially a Hurricane and rapidly organizing. Northern portion is feeding off of the Atlantic

[toxictwister00]

NHC latest cone calling for GA hit.

EDIT: As Martin already stated, now that Irene is a hurricane we have our first hurricane of the 2011 season!


Also what a phenomenal storm Irene is, I know it would be destructive if it makes landfall at the intensity it could shown by the models, but it sure looks beautiful! I think there is a strong possibility Irene will NOT cut right through Haiti/DR, it should scrape by on the north side or miss them altogether.

[Trevor]

Savannah, GA is rather overdue, sadly ;(

In other news, Puerto Rico's radar is down...possibly because of Irene.

[toxictwister00]

Savannah, GA is rather overdue, sadly ;(

In other news, Puerto Rico's radar is down...possibly because of Irene.

True, eventhough that cone will shift around several times by late week, I'm sold on a GA/SC hit.

I guess it's true what they say, "What doesn't kill you only makes you stronger". I think that's the best way to sum up Irene at this point.

[phw115wvwx]

I think Irene has solved the Caribbean puzzle as it's going to escape just north of Hispaniola, so all my earlier doubts have faded.  Now, I see a real chance that Irene will become a major hurricane over the Bahamas.  There's still a ton of uncertainty in the models regarding how much will that subtropical ridge over Bermuda break later this week, which will mean everything in forecasting Irene's northward turn.  Irene could still miss the East Coast entirely if it curves northward sooner than expected due to a rapid breakdown of the ridge, so I can't predict a landfall location with good confidence yet.  However, the odds of a United States landfall have gone up dramatically in my mind.

I urge everyone from FL to NC to monitor this hurricane closely and prepare for any watches.  Now, I hope you all realize how much I hate hyping up storms too soon due to all the evidence you've seen from past storms this year.  So, I hope it means something to you all that I'm actually turning on my "red mode" in my mind this morning.

[Pop Light Brown]

I think Irene has solved the Caribbean puzzle as it's going to escape just north of Hispaniola, so all my earlier doubts have faded. 

I was thinking the same thing, only I thought she would be south of the islands.

Irene will not be a fish storm; she's coming in somewhere. My guess is Cape Canaveral to Hilton Head Island. Depends on how much she turns when she gets in that area.

[Mr. Rainman]

I personally think that NHC is still being slightly conservative with their wind estimates with Irene. Seeing how much it has already development overnight, I would say that a moderate range Category 3 by Saturday morning is not completely out of the question. I'm thinking they may bump that final wind speed up to 120 mph in the next few days, depending on what Irene does.

She's a beautiful storm, though. Please, everyone in Georgia and Florida be careful. Southern South Carolina should probably pay attention to Irene as well.

[toxictwister00]

Intermediate advisory upgrades winds to 80mph.

I think Irene has solved the Caribbean puzzle as it's going to escape just north of Hispaniola, so all my earlier doubts have faded. Now, I see a real chance that Irene will become a major hurricane over the Bahamas.  There's still a ton of uncertainty in the models regarding how much will that subtropical ridge over Bermuda break later this week, which will mean everything in forecasting Irene's northward turn.  Irene could still miss the East Coast entirely if it curves northward sooner than expected due to a rapid breakdown of the ridge, so I can't predict a landfall location with good confidence yet.  However, the odds of a United States landfall have gone up dramatically in my mind.

I urge everyone from FL to NC to monitor this hurricane closely and prepare for any watches.  Now, I hope you all realize how much I hate hyping up storms too soon due to all the evidence you've seen from past storms this year.  So, I hope it means something to you all that I'm actually turning on my "red mode" in my mind this morning.

Indeed, an OTS solution seems to be increasing, models won't stop shifting east. Something tells me it won't as far east as they're trying to indicate, but we'll have to wait and see how things unfold.

[Mr. Rainman]

Model guidance has shifted north and east, big time. All but about 4 models now take Irene straight in Myrtle Beach.

[toxictwister00]

Hmm, Irene is starting to look a little off balanced (as far as her shape) to me now. There was a met over at the americanwx forums who said an eyewall is developing maybe that's why it looking like that.