Hurricane Irene

[wachirawits12]

Well I guess i'll start this topic as Tropical Storm Irene has formed with 50mph wind....

Not yet put out on the NHC Site though

[toxictwister00]

This is a BIG mama of a storm! This is gonna be fun to watch it evolve over the next several days from a meteorological standpoint.

[KevOwensby]

TWC is already turning graphics red and switching music.

[Mr. Rainman]

Auto-updating maps and wind speed probabilities from the National Hurricane Center. If Irene can avoid major interaction with land as it passes over the Caribbean, then it has a pretty strong chance of developing into a hurricane (possibly a second time) before nearing Florida. Speaking of which, the Sunshine State is right in the middle of the cone of uncertainty, so unless we have another Emily situation, it looks like residents will likely see something from this storm.

Storm Track:


Wind Probabilities:

[wachirawits12]

This is turning into a serious conditions. my friends who are in meteorology also are saying that this conditions are almost exact same as Hurricane Katrina in 2005...which was devastating...We'll have to see what how this turns out....

But everyone in the Southeastern Coast of the US - Texas, Louisiana, Alabama, Florida, and the Carolinas need to watch out for this...This goes for the rest of the Eastern US as well...

This is NOT an Emily Situation by any means based on the model i've looked at so far....

[toxictwister00]

I'm getting a feeling models that shifted east (GFS/Euro) are gonna shift west again. GFS has been doing that today, it shifted west from the 12z and 6z runs and I don't think the 0z run will be any different. If the ridge in the Atlantic is stronger and retrogrades west the north turn will be delayed, that's what the CMC and UKMET are doing which is why they are so far west from the others. My biggest concern is flooding across the SE, GFS/EURO are stalling Irene over AL/GA once it makes landfall because it misses a weak departing trough to pull it north and east.

[phw115wvwx]

That forecast track has way too many land interactions for Irene to be a significant threat to the United States at this time.  I'm holding off from any speculations until I actually can see evidence that it will survive through the Caribbean.

[Mr. Rainman]

This is NOT an Emily Situation by any means based on the model i've looked at so far....

Never said it was. Sorry if I made it seem that way  .

I don't think we have enough data yet to say this is gonna be a big, major storm yet, though, because it's actual track still could mess it up in the long run. If she interacts with land severely enough, she make just impact the United States as a tropical storm. If she makes it into the Gulf of Mexico...well, that's a different story. But for now, I'm hesitant to get excited for any major hurricane. A strong tropical storm or weak hurricane is a real possibility, however.

[wachirawits12]

This is NOT an Emily Situation by any means based on the model i've looked at so far....

Never said it was. Sorry if I made it seem that way  .

I don't think we have enough data yet to say this is gonna be a big, major storm yet, though, because it's actual track still could mess it up in the long run. If she interacts with land severely enough, she make just impact the United States as a tropical storm. If she makes it into the Gulf of Mexico...well, that's a different story. But for now, I'm hesitant to get excited for any major hurricane. A strong tropical storm or weak hurricane is a real possibility, however.

lol i was talking before i saw your post I was gonna say that this seems like it's not gonna be like emily cause the pattern is different and the forecast model i've looked at so far provides this fact...Sorry if it seems like i was talking to u

But i agree with what you said...Current track can still mess up the intensity once it gets to cuba and the hispaniola and interacts with land and mountains terrain

[toxictwister00]

That forecast track has way too many land interactions for Irene to be a significant threat to the United States at this time.  I'm holding off from any speculations until I actually can see evidence that it will survive through the Caribbean.

Only because they're taking the middle road of both extremes of west/east tracks, but I agree you can't say for sure. Irene is moving at a swift pace west at 22mph, unless it slows down in forward motion I wonder if that will have an effect on it missing a lot of land areas in the Caribbean. (moving more south and west)

[WeatherWitness]

So Irene may be our first hurricane of the Atlantic season...

As Patrick has said, unless the track of Irene shifts west, I think the land will really disrupt its intensity.

[TWCToday]

TWC is already turning graphics red and switching music.

Really? Seems a bit early but thats cool to see

[toxictwister00]

For what it's worth...

[Pop Light Brown]

I'm getting a feeling models that shifted east (GFS/Euro) are gonna shift west again. GFS has been doing that today, it shifted west from the 12z and 6z runs and I don't think the 0z run will be any different. If the ridge in the Atlantic is stronger and retrogrades west the north turn will be delayed, that's what the CMC and UKMET are doing which is why they are so far west from the others. My biggest concern is flooding across the SE, GFS/EURO are stalling Irene over AL/GA once it makes landfall because it misses a weak departing trough to pull it north and east.

I have a feeling Irene will stay mainly south of the islands as well...which wouldn't be good because that puts her on a track much closer to me. I do not trust that upper high over Texas.

[Mr. Rainman]

NHC is picking up on those intensity models. Here's their discussion.

IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE MODELS THAT SHOW LESS LAND INTERACTION...SUCH
AS THE GFDL OR HWRF...HAVE IRENE BECOMING A MAJOR HURRICANE...AND
THAT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ESPECIALLY IF THE STORM MOVES ON
THE FAR LEFT OR RIGHT SIDE OF THE FORECAST CONE AND AVOIDS
SIGNIFICANT LAND INTERACTION. OVERALL...GIVEN THE TRACK FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LAND INTERACTION...THE INTENSITY
FORECAST LATE IN THE PERIOD IS EVEN MORE UNCERTAIN THAN USUAL.

A HURRICANE WATCH COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PUERTO RICO TOMORROW IF
THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT TO THE TRACK FORECAST.

OF NOTE...THIS IS THE THIRD EARLIEST TO HAVE NINE NAMED STORMS FORM
IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN...BEHIND 2005 AND 1936.