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Author Topic: Hurricane Irene  (Read 40104 times)

phw115wvwx

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Re: Hurricane Irene
« Reply #30 on: August 21, 2011, 02:40:44 PM »
Most of the time, pressure is the first variable to respond.  Then, the winds have to adjust to the changing pressure.  I have seen the case for both intensification and weakening phases.  I'll be curious to see the 5 PM advisory given the pressure drop and the change in the forecast models.
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Offline toxictwister00

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Re: Hurricane Irene
« Reply #31 on: August 21, 2011, 02:48:13 PM »
Quote from: phw115wvwx on August 21, 2011, 02:40:44 PM
Most of the time, pressure is the first variable to respond.  Then, the winds have to adjust to the changing pressure.  I have seen the case for both intensification and weakening phases.  I'll be curious to see the 5 PM advisory given the pressure drop and the change in the forecast models.

Thank you and Trevor for replying, I'm curious to see what the 5pm advisory will be like too.

12z EURO today... :blink: :wacko:
It's probably overdoing it, but still it's pretty scary to imagine.
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Offline Trevor

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Re: Hurricane Irene
« Reply #32 on: August 21, 2011, 03:05:16 PM »
It looks like we've got some dry air trying to bud in, as shown by the arrow.

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Offline wachirawits12

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Re: Hurricane Irene
« Reply #33 on: August 21, 2011, 03:14:39 PM »
From what my friends and I gathered at this Point, Here is our Forecast Track Cone and Intensity....

And sorry for the typo :P It has been changed....And also forgot to add on that it is PM Forecast NOT AM Forecast...Sorry about that...
« Last Edit: August 21, 2011, 04:53:31 PM by wachirawits12 »
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Offline Mr. Rainman

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Re: Hurricane Irene
« Reply #34 on: August 21, 2011, 03:28:58 PM »
Interesting. Not a bad track forecast, except 75 mph is not a tropical storm.

The latest ADT run is 3.1, which signals a wind speed of just over 45 knots. So at the moment, looks like winds are holding just above 50.
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Offline Trevor

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Re: Hurricane Irene
« Reply #35 on: August 21, 2011, 03:36:05 PM »
I thought this would be interesting to share...these are some of the models. Some of them are similar in their paths, but are completely different when it comes to intensity. Check it out!









« Last Edit: August 21, 2011, 03:38:26 PM by Trevor »
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Offline Mr. Rainman

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Re: Hurricane Irene
« Reply #36 on: August 21, 2011, 03:43:08 PM »
Since when did NHC forecast a tropical depression at the end of the period? I don't see that in the track cone or forecast discussion.
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Offline Trevor

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Re: Hurricane Irene
« Reply #37 on: August 21, 2011, 03:51:43 PM »
They don't forecast at the end of the cone, like I did. I figure if it does travel over the entire Peninsula of Florida, it won't be a storm.
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Offline WeatherWitness

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Re: Hurricane Irene
« Reply #38 on: August 21, 2011, 04:23:03 PM »
Trevor, where did you get all that track information from? Seems interesting on how many possibilities there could be. :yes:
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Offline Trevor

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Re: Hurricane Irene
« Reply #39 on: August 21, 2011, 04:40:22 PM »
It's a paid radar software called GREarth (that's also where the background is from). I took the data from there and threw it into PPT.
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Offline wachirawits12

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Re: Hurricane Irene
« Reply #40 on: August 21, 2011, 04:52:56 PM »
new advisory shows that the NHC is pretty much almost agreeing with my forecast from earlier...Here's the windspeed forecast....
« Last Edit: August 21, 2011, 05:10:01 PM by wachirawits12 »
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Offline Trevor

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Re: Hurricane Irene
« Reply #41 on: August 21, 2011, 04:53:48 PM »
If you don't mind releasing, what background are you using?
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Offline wachirawits12

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Re: Hurricane Irene
« Reply #42 on: August 21, 2011, 04:55:08 PM »
Quote from: Trevor on August 21, 2011, 04:53:48 PM
If you don't mind releasing, what background are you using?

If your talking to me, then i think you also have the same background also....This is from Grearth....
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Offline Trevor

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Re: Hurricane Irene
« Reply #43 on: August 21, 2011, 04:59:58 PM »
Ah, ok. I think the yellow text through me off. Most people have it as white. Yellow adds a nice touch.
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Offline toxictwister00

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Re: Hurricane Irene
« Reply #44 on: August 21, 2011, 05:40:59 PM »
My last forecast for today. I'm leaving it as this until I see a reason to change otherwise.

Hello Irene!  :wave:
« Last Edit: August 21, 2011, 06:06:01 PM by Weatherlover »
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