April 28, 2024, 06:50:52 AM

Author Topic: Hurricane Irene  (Read 40108 times)

Offline wachirawits12

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Re: Hurricane Irene
« Reply #15 on: August 20, 2011, 11:52:57 PM »
For what it's worth, here's my friend and I forecast windspeed and track....

As you can se we have Irene windspeed higher than the NHC's...But not really by much right now...


Edited the Graphics on Sunday 9:51am PDT for the change in track and intensity...Tropics Icon thanks to Donovan  :happy:
« Last Edit: August 21, 2011, 01:17:38 PM by wachirawits12 »

Offline twcfan68

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Re: Hurricane Irene
« Reply #16 on: August 20, 2011, 11:53:19 PM »
I somehow don't think Irene will be very problematic for the United States. The models have it passing over the mountainous terrains of the Dominican Republic and Cuba, which will just greatly disrupt the circulation. I just think there will be too much land interaction, but I believe that is in everyone's best interest to keep it from becoming a powerful storm.

Offline toxictwister00

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Re: Hurricane Irene
« Reply #17 on: August 21, 2011, 08:26:40 AM »
Well somewhat encouraging news, since the COC (center of circulation) of Tropical Storm Irene relocated north, models started shifting east. I say that's somewhat encouraging because if Irene goes north and east enough to avoid little or any land, it will still pose the same serious threat as it would if it was further south and west avoiding land.

Speaking of that not all models want to give into a eastern solution, the UKMET still takes this into the GOM while at the same time avoiding Haiti/DR, Jamaica, and even Cuba!

6z GDFL this morning relives most of the Gulf Coast's fears, but not the FL panhandle and 6z HWRF this morning is Savannah's worst nightmare come to life barreling them with a monstrous hurricane with a barometric pressure of 925mb. 0z Euro does the same trackwise so we could still possibly be looking at a historic rare landfall for GA.

For any hurricane enthusiastics out there call me selfish, but I'm kinda hoping the NHC's current track plays out, We need the rain here and I think if it tracked any further east than that like paralleling the east coast, I know I'm gonna get screwed out of any good rainfall. I always do when they do that.
« Last Edit: August 21, 2011, 08:39:30 AM by Weatherlover »


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Offline toxictwister00

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Re: Hurricane Irene
« Reply #18 on: August 21, 2011, 10:35:54 AM »
My Forecast - I'm not too keen on forecasting intensity, so I stayed a little conservative on that. After this forecast map, I'll probably take them out. My track is slightly west of the NHC's track.

Also, please don't laugh at my graphics, this is my first time making a forecast map pertaining to tropical weather so I know it's not that good.  :P (and no I wasn't trying to recreate TWC graphics, but the cone does look a little similar to it.)


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Offline Mr. Rainman

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Re: Hurricane Irene
« Reply #19 on: August 21, 2011, 10:50:02 AM »
A hurricane warning, the first of the Atlantic hurricane season, is in effect for the south side of Hispaniola...and a hurricane watch is in effect for Puerto Rico, Vieques, and Culebra.

EDIT: Below is a document containing my thoughts and forecast for Irene.

« Last Edit: August 21, 2011, 12:01:09 PM by plane852 »
Tiddlywinks.

Offline toxictwister00

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Re: Hurricane Irene
« Reply #20 on: August 21, 2011, 12:15:24 PM »
12 GFS shifts north again, barely clips Haiti/DR on the northside and passes by Cuba heading NW only giving them a glancing blow and then continues to strengthen. It's a 985mb low at hour 90.

Irene misses the trough coming and exiting the ECONUS, the Atlantic ridge begins building back in by Wed/Thu timeframe forcing her to go NW instead of due N.

EDIT: I think it's time for me to do some revisions to my forecast cone... A GOM hit is looking more and more less likely.

Hour 144 - Landfall around GA/SC border.
« Last Edit: August 21, 2011, 12:26:05 PM by Weatherlover »


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Offline Trevor

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Re: Hurricane Irene
« Reply #21 on: August 21, 2011, 12:20:33 PM »
For what it's worth, here's my friend and I forecast windspeed and track....

As you can se we have Irene windspeed higher than the NHC's...But not really by much right now...

90 MPH? That's a bit much...ok, that's a lot much.

Offline toxictwister00

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Re: Hurricane Irene
« Reply #22 on: August 21, 2011, 12:29:19 PM »
For what it's worth, here's my friend and I forecast windspeed and track....

As you can se we have Irene windspeed higher than the NHC's...But not really by much right now...

90 MPH? That's a bit much...ok, that's a lot much.

Really? I don't think so. I find that to be plausible.


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Offline Trevor

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Re: Hurricane Irene
« Reply #23 on: August 21, 2011, 12:35:01 PM »
I say 80 MPH...tops. Now, once it passes the Dominican Republic, maybe. But before it even gets there? No.

Offline WeatherWitness

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Re: Hurricane Irene
« Reply #24 on: August 21, 2011, 01:04:47 PM »
As mentioned earlier, I have noticed that the projected path has now been shifted slightly more to the east. TWC has also dropped the intensity level from 85 to 75 MPH when it hits Florida. Hopefully the track doesn't shift too far east and then have the storm go to nowhere, because some areas in the U.S. could use the rain. But I know flooding from hurricanes/tropical storms is not really what we need (except for Texas).

Offline toxictwister00

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Re: Hurricane Irene
« Reply #25 on: August 21, 2011, 02:02:41 PM »
Directional change from W to WNW.


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Offline TWCToday

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Re: Hurricane Irene
« Reply #26 on: August 21, 2011, 02:16:28 PM »
Most of the operational models taking an east coast track now. NHC will probably start coming east with their track

Offline Trevor

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Re: Hurricane Irene
« Reply #27 on: August 21, 2011, 02:27:13 PM »
HRWF has it making landfall in Florida, and then re-entering the Atlantic as a Category 3 :thinking:

Offline toxictwister00

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Re: Hurricane Irene
« Reply #28 on: August 21, 2011, 02:28:57 PM »
As displayed in my graphic, Irene's pressure is down to 999mb, but it's still only 50mph in max winds. Could this be one of those cases where the winds play catch up to the pressure? That's a significant drop in pressure from earlier. Also that satellite image of Irene I'm gong to assume is deceiving, looks like an eye is trying to from, but I could be wrong...


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Offline Trevor

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Re: Hurricane Irene
« Reply #29 on: August 21, 2011, 02:34:30 PM »
As displayed in my graphic, Irene's pressure is down to 999mb, but it's still only 50mph in max winds. Could this be one of those cases where the winds play catch up to the pressure? That's a significant drop in pressure from earlier. Also that satellite image of Irene I'm gong to assume is deceiving, looks like an eye is trying to from, but I could be wrong...

I see where you're getting that from.

Katrina 2005
Pressure 950 - Winds 70 MPH
Pressure 930 - Winds 90 MPH
Pressure 910 - Winds 110 MPH
Pressure 1110 - Winds 50 MPH

(of course those weren't the actual numbers, it was just an example). I don't think that's the case with all storms. We'll have to wait for the Intermediate Advisory in 30 minutes, I guess.

That does look like an eye is trying to form... :thinking: