Tropical Storm Emily

[toxictwister00]

I didn't see the 8am cone, but the 11am looks to have shifted west again.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT05/refresh/AL0511W5_NL_sm2+gif/145014W5_NL_sm.gif

[Mr. Rainman]

Yeah...it's a bit concerning at the moment. While it's still a little too far to jump to conclusions...if Emily continues west, there are a few models that suddenly gain credibility.

1.) The BAM family of models which says Emily will head towards the Gulf of Mexico. This may happen if Emily does not react to the weakness in the subtropical ridge that NHC is betting will send it NWard.

2.) The more concerning solution: the HWRF model, which has now been shifting west with the last few runs. The 12Z model run today puts the center making landfall in Central Florida - near Orlando - and then continuing along the East Coast before impacting just north of Charleston and heading slightly inland towards Myrtle Beach.

Again, too far out to tell. This thing still has a chance of being torn apart by the mountains of Hispaniola...and seeing how no more strengthening is now anticipated, she may not survive the trip.

[toxictwister00]

Yeah...it's a bit concerning at the moment. While it's still a little too far to jump to conclusions...if Emily continues west, there are a few models that suddenly gain credibility.

1.) The BAM family of models which says Emily will head towards the Gulf of Mexico. This may happen if Emily does not react to the weakness in the subtropical ridge that NHC is betting will send it NWard.

2.) The more concerning solution: the HWRF model, which has now been shifting west with the last few runs. The 12Z model run today puts the center making landfall in Central Florida - near Orlando - and then continuing along the East Coast before impacting just north of Charleston and heading slightly inland towards Myrtle Beach.

Again, too far out to tell. This thing still has a chance of being torn apart by the mountains of Hispaniola...and seeing how no more strengthening is now anticipated, she may not survive the trip.

I'm beginning to believe that's very likely to happen. I'm not sure it will be able to recover.

[Zach]

BAMS, to be specific, has a landfall in Manatee county.. which based on its path, could strengthen it due to only making a landfall at the western tip of Cuba, then a Manatee county landfall..

Here's the latest from myfoxhurricane.com


And attached below are some more models

[Donovan]

Hmmm... I'll take HWRF Landfall in my area! 

[twcctornado77]

I think it's gonna be somewhere in between the HWRF and AVNO tracks. 

[Mike M]

NHC now has this storm moving east away from the mid-Atlantic.

[toxictwister00]

NHC now has this storm moving east away from the mid-Atlantic.

It wasn't ever expected to get that far north anyway because of persistent troughs moving in around the timeframe she would get there blocking her away.

[Mr. Rainman]

Looking at satellite, Emily's center of circulation is now severely exposed. Unless she can really get her act together soon and convection can fire around the center, I am having serious doubts about Emily making it through Hispaniola in one piece.

[Mr. Rainman]

O-ho-ho, this is getting interesting...winds staying at 50 for now, but NHC is now acknowledging a possible United States land threat.

THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED WESTWARD DURING THE FIRST 12 TO 24
HOURS...BRINGING EMILY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI AND
THEN EASTERN CUBA. AFTER THAT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST STILL
ASSUMES THAT THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TROUGH WILL DEEPEN SUFFICIENTLY
TO TURN THE CYCLONE NORTHWESTWARD AND NORTHWARD. HOWEVER...IF THE
NORTHWARD TURN DOES NOT BEGIN SOON...THE THREAT TO THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES WILL INCREASE.

[Trevor]

Looks like Emily finally took that WNW turn.

[Mr. Rainman]

It looks like Hispaniola is really messing with Emily's organization now...she'll likely turn into a tropical depression in a little bit as she continues to interact with land. There's still potential for reorganization.

[Mr. Rainman]

Emily has severely degenerated and will no longer be followed by the National Hurricane Center unless regeneration occurs.

[gt1racerlHDl]

Emily gets a FAIL Rating 

[phw115wvwx]

Maybe this storm will teach everyone to stop forecasting for landfalls so far out.  Would you all believe that the European model, a non-hurricane and non-US model, was the best one out of all for Emily?  It correctly predicted this dissipation to happen.  Emily is just a remnant low as the closed center of circulation has opened back up into a trough.  We'll have to monitor the remnants to see if any regeneration occurs, but it's not looking likely at this moment.