TWC Today Forums
Weather Discussion => Hazardous Weather => Hurricane Central => Topic started by: Mr. Rainman on August 01, 2011, 07:32:01 PM
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Tropical Storm Emily has formed, thank goodness. More details to follow.
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looking at the drought monitor GA/FL will get rain they desperately need
(http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/pics/southeast_dm.png)
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(http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT05/refresh/AL0511W5_NL_sm2+gif/233014W5_NL_sm.gif)
Forecast Track
(http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT05/refresh/AL0511T_sm2+gif/233014P_sm.gif)
Wind Speed Forecast/Probabilities
This information self-updates.
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My predictions:
Landfall at or around Miami, FL (as previously predicted on my Facebook page)
Cities that need to pay CLOSE attention to Invest 91: Wilmington, NC; Miami, FL; Key West, FL; and all of Puerto Rico. Stay tuned!
Hurricane Warning for Southeastern Florida at least by Saturday.
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And we have Emily...
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
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AT 730 PM AST...2330 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.0 WEST. EMILY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AND A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
EMILY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TONIGHT...AND
APPROACH THE ISLAND OF HISPANIOLA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110
KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
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I don't think we really need to make predictions on the precise location of a United States landfall just yet. We still don't have enough data, and that event is still 5 days out, if not more.
Current forecasts are for Emily to remain weak as organization and interaction with land hinder with its development. The Dominican Republic will definitely see impacts from this storm. I'm waiting on the latest model runs to see what they say.
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I think it'll make it to about Savannah, GA b4 gettin carried off by the trough.
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Finally something for me to track! :happy: I appear to be in Emily's cone..
Spaghetti models:
(http://i.imgur.com/l6yJK.jpg)
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I don't think we really need to make predictions on the precise location of a United States landfall just yet. We still don't have enough data, and that event is still 5 days out, if not more.
Current forecasts are for Emily to remain weak as organization and interaction with land hinder with its development. The Dominican Republic will definitely see impacts from this storm. I'm waiting on the latest model runs to see what they say.
Excuse me for looking at the NHC forecast and finding out the city in the middle of the cone...at this time, that looks like the most reasonable location, and people need as much notice as possible. I'm pretty sure that local Miami meteorologists aren't brushing this off... :whistling:
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AVNO takes Emily pretty much right past my living room window.
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I don't think we really need to make predictions on the precise location of a United States landfall just yet. We still don't have enough data, and that event is still 5 days out, if not more.
Current forecasts are for Emily to remain weak as organization and interaction with land hinder with its development. The Dominican Republic will definitely see impacts from this storm. I'm waiting on the latest model runs to see what they say.
Excuse me for looking at the NHC forecast and finding out the city in the middle of the cone... :whistling:
Rule #1. Don't hypecast or do any variation of it.
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:facepalm:
That's all I can say...like previously stated, I'm sure that Miami meteorologists are warning their viewers, because they know that if it doesn't impact them, it will come close. And no, I am not a hypercaster. If there is a large hook echo ~30 miles away and moving towards a large city, are you going to wait until it is right up on them to let them know of the impending danger? I also wasn't aware that there was a 'weather rulebook"...
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I didn't say anything about Miami brushing this system off...they shouldn't. It poses a threat, I'll acknowledge. But I go again to the fact that we don't have enough information, and it's 5 days out. It's too early to tell. Hence the cone of uncertainty.
Forecasts and models can change over 5 days. That's why I'm hesitant to call anything this early. There are still some models that take this thing off shore, so it could still (barely) miss us.
From the National Hurricane Center's Forecast Discussion:
GIVEN THE
SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE LATE IN THE PERIOD...THIS IS A GOOD TIME TO
REMIND EVERYONE THAT THE AVERAGE ERROR OF THE OFFICIAL NHC TRACK
FORECAST IS ABOUT 250 MILES AT 5 DAYS.
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LOL, you guys are so excited over a hurricane that may make US landfall. Is it something to really be that hyped up about?
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:facepalm:
That's all I can say...like previously stated, I'm sure that Miami meteorologists are warning their viewers, because they know that if it doesn't impact them, it will come close. And no, I am not a hypercaster. If there is a large hook echo ~30 miles away and moving towards a large city, are you going to wait until it is right up on them to let them know of the impending danger? I also wasn't aware that there was a 'weather rulebook"...
As it's been stated more than once, what was shown on the models today of a Florida hit could easily be wrong. It's possible they have incorrectly projected the location of where the LLC was. If tonight most of the runs were to do a total 180 and go back to a recurve w/ no US landfall what would your forecast be then? If you noticed the model spreads throughout today, there was still a lot of diverging beyond the short range (48 hrs out) which leaves reasonable doubt in the solutions.
One rule of weather forecasting: Never model hug to what each run says, especially when it's still medium to long range. That's a big no no. There are still a lot of things that have to be addressed long before it gets to the SE coast such as, how much will it be disrupted going over DR/Haiti? How strong will it be afterward? Will it be strong/weak enough to be/not be picked up quickly by the trough? Still plenty of questions, but not a whole lot of confident answers. I'm not trying to attack you or anything, I'm just trying to relay some friendly advice. I personally wouldn't make a call like that until at least 2 days at the earliest where there's more confidence in the models.
There's absolutely nothing wrong with mentioning the possibility of a landfall in Flordia or the SE coast, but you should also keep in mind the other plausible possibilities that it could go into the GOM if it stays very weak or it could miss any landfall in the US period and quickly recurves, and even as Patrick mentioned earlier not have an Emily to track at all once it's passed the islands.
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i say emily will strike kansas city
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i say emily will strike kansas city
Sounds right :D
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Latest model runs from 00Z. All the tracks have taken a rather noticeable jump to the east, quite a few offshore.
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i say emily will strike kansas city
We got 1.62" of rain all of July in Topeka. There's cracks in the ground that would swallow a buffalo. Tropical moisture wouldn't hurt. It hit 109 today here breaking a record since 1980.
On the real note of Emily: Kinda surprised TWC isn't hyping this up already... I suppose it's coming, but really hardly any mention of it now that it's become an actual storm. Maybe they don't want another Don situation making them look kinda foolish?
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Rule #1. Don't hypecast or do any variation of it.
Don't tell the media that! :P
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Any of you can make an initial guess as to where it will hit right now, but realize that when you put yourself out there early that you'll face scrutiny in this field. Do you have enough confidence in your forecast to bet your money on it? That's how you ought to think about it. If you do, you need to be prepared to explain yourself with good reasons to defend your forecast. We have lives and property at risk, so let's please not turn this issue into a major feud here. You're more than welcome to critique others, but don't turn those into personal attacks.
My opinion is that FL doesn't have to panic yet but simply monitor the progress of Emily. After all, look at NHC's forecast track. There's more confidence that Emily will go through Haiti and the Dominican Republic. The mountains in those two countries have torn up many good tropical cyclones in the past. Since I have reasonable doubts, I'm going to wait until I see more evidence that it will survive and move closer.
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From the looks of things, this storm is gonna take a similar track that 1999's Floyd did. I hope we get impact from this. :D
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I thnk Emily will pull a Floyd and go right up the Eastern Seaboard, landfalling between Charleton and Myrtle Beach, SC.
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Emily looks better IMO this morning! Majority of the models have been keeping it below/just below hurricane strength. Looks like the mountains on the major islands out there might slow this system down and cause it to weaken significantly combined with some shear possibly to the north ot it, but I don't think that will do too much damage to the system.
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I wish we had a cat 4+ hurricane making US landfall. Even though it'll cause more harm than good, I, for some reason, think the rain from such a system is a much needed relief
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Something worth noting, as of the 11pm advisory, Emily is stationary.
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I wish we had a cat 4+ hurricane making US landfall. Even though it'll cause more harm than good, I, for some reason, think the rain from such a system is a much needed relief
It's very possible to get a decent soaking rain with a tropical storm or even a tropical depression. An area in need of rain doesn't have to get hit by a category 4 hurricane in order to solve the problem. And the additional effects of a category 4 hurricane - serious wind damage, not to mention the storm surge and vastly increased risk of tornadoes - makes such a scenario FAR more dangerous than need be.
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Something worth noting, as of the 11pm advisory, Emily is stationary.
As I understand it, Emily is in a process of reorganization. Finding the center of circulation has been hard enough, and it seems as if the system is still working out exactly where it's going to be, especially considering the shear, meaning the circulation, like Don, is probably tilted across levels.
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Yeah, but think about it, we will get into full fledged storm alert mode :P
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The models keep shifting east and east with every run....again, models can change, but I'm starting to doubt more and more that this storm poses a definite direct threat to the U.S. mainland. We're still four days out, though, so let's see.
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The models were always showing a curve back out to sea with only a few outliers going into the Gulf or Florida. The NHC track was more a compromise and their own discussions indicated the low confidence of the forecast. This is a tricky storm since it is very poorly organized. Over the next few days it is going to be going over some very rough terrain too that will make intensity forecasts tricky. Recently though it has been trying to get its act together.
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Excuse me for looking at the NHC forecast and finding out the city in the middle of the cone...at this time, that looks like the most reasonable location, and people need as much notice as possible. I'm pretty sure that local Miami meteorologists aren't brushing this off... :whistling:
That is exactly what you shouldn't do this far out. Everyone along the Gulf and East Coast should always be prepared for that big hit. At this point this far out the best you can do is monitor the situation. By making landfall predictions this far out you only scare people or throw people off on what to believe. I spoke with the NHC director recently and he talked about how when people look at the 5 day cone they A. Don't think it will hit , B. Think it will weaken, C. Think it will hit in the center of the cone and nobody else.
Take a look at this chart and look at forecast accuracy.
(http://img62.imageshack.us/img62/4342/post3106217850013122459.png)
Perhaps when making predictions you should back them up with facts and reasoning (besides saying its in the center of the cone). Start looking at model and satellite data.
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Here is a perfect example on why this storm is so hard to forecast based on models right now, try to give me an intensity forecast based on this.
http://image5.flhurricane.com/images/2011/clarki5latest.png (http://image5.flhurricane.com/images/2011/clarki5latest.png)
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There's something you all should know about the forecast cone, and NHC kindly quotes it on their site:
Historical data indicate that the entire 5-day path of the center of the tropical cyclone will remain within the cone about 60-70% of the time. To form the cone, a set of imaginary circles are placed along the forecast track at the 12, 24, 36, 48, 72, 96, and 120 h positions, where the size of each circle is set so that it encloses 67% of the previous five years official forecast errors. The cone is then formed by smoothly connecting the area swept out by the set of circles.
So, you can only expect the center to stay in the cone about 2/3 of the time with an average storm, which is a really significant statistic. The situations around Emily don't make this forecast average at all. That spaghetti plot above looks like the models are tossing a salad with the spaghetti. :P
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I think Emily's gonna fire on and off until it reaches Wilmington, NC.
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Donovan showed off his forecast earlier, so I figured I might as well show mine. The following is my model discussion and how my forecast goes by that. And yes, the policies have been resolved. We have to wait for NHC to call a system now; the bosses saw our point. :thrilled: This is a little long, so mods, if you have to trim it down, go ahead. This is the only time I'm posting my forecast on the forums.
...Model Discussion...
No significant changes have been made in intensity or track forecasts from the 11 AM update.
The 18Z model runs continue to show growing consensus of Emily moving to the NW by 24 hours out...with many models taking the center of the storm directly over Santo Domingo by 36 hours. After this...models split. BAMS and BAMD take the most western route...taking Emily over Cuba and towards the Keys before heading towards the Gulf of Mexico. The rest of the models take her NW past the Dominican Republic and Haiti towards the Bahamas.
At this point...models vary again...disagreeing how long Emily will maintain it's NW track before turning to the NE. However...at this time...no models currently take the center of Emily over any portion of the East Coast.
Intensity models are currently all over the place...causing great uncertainty in the forecast. Models are in good agreement in the next 24 hours that Emily will intensify gradually...but after 24 hours split into a variety of scenarios. Will not go into details over the specific models...but it is worth mentioning that almost all models have Emily at hurricane strength by 120 hours. Again...it is important to emphasize that interaction with land and forecasted environmental conditions make intensity forecasts difficult.
EDIT: Trimmed down at moderator's request.
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Donovan showed off his forecast earlier, so I figured I might as well show mine. The following is my model discussion and how my forecast goes by that. And yes, the policies have been resolved. We have to wait for NHC to call a system now; the bosses saw our point. :thrilled: This is a little long, so mods, if you have to trim it down, go ahead. This is the only time I'm posting my forecast on the forums.
...Model Discussion...
No significant changes have been made in intensity or track forecasts from the 11 AM update.
The 18Z model runs continue to show growing consensus of Emily moving to the NW by 24 hours out...with many models taking the center of the storm directly over Santo Domingo by 36 hours. After this...models split. BAMS and BAMD take the most western route...taking Emily over Cuba and towards the Keys before heading towards the Gulf of Mexico. The rest of the models take her NW past the Dominican Republic and Haiti towards the Bahamas.
At this point...models vary again...disagreeing how long Emily will maintain it's NW track before turning to the NE. However...at this time...no models currently take the center of Emily over any portion of the East Coast.
Intensity models are currently all over the place...causing great uncertainty in the forecast. Models are in good agreement in the next 24 hours that Emily will intensify gradually...but after 24 hours split into a variety of scenarios. Will not go into details over the specific models...but it is worth mentioning that almost all models have Emily at hurricane strength by 120 hours. Again...it is important to emphasize that interaction with land and forecasted environmental conditions make intensity forecasts difficult.
EDIT: Trimmed down at moderator's request.
I couldn't agree more. Emily is looking the best she has looked in her entire lifespan right now. I think she has a decent shot at peaking to 60-65mph before running into land the next 36 hours.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-vis.html (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-vis.html)
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-rb.html (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-rb.html)
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Latest satellite imagery shows convection just exploded around Emily's center in the last few hours...and then I got this image sent to me just a few minutes ago. I have no idea what to think about it. :blink:
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Latest satellite imagery shows convection just exploded around Emily's center in the last few hours...and then I got this image sent to me just a few minutes ago. I have no idea what to think about it. :blink:
That's a satellite brightness map. The red colors are the colder cloud tops, which you can tell by looking at the Kelvin temperature scale on your plot. It means that Emily is finally beginning to develop deep convection, which is a signal that it could finally be getting its act together.
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looking at the drought monitor GA/FL will get rain they desperately need
([url]http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/pics/southeast_dm.png[/url])
The drought has gotten better, though, in Georgia and Florida. No D4 areas (exceptional) in Florida, like there had been and much less areas of exceptional drought in Georgia. Still, they do need more rain to help out more and hopefully they'll get it.
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Excuse me for looking at the NHC forecast and finding out the city in the middle of the cone...at this time, that looks like the most reasonable location, and people need as much notice as possible. I'm pretty sure that local Miami meteorologists aren't brushing this off... :whistling:
That is exactly what you shouldn't do this far out. Everyone along the Gulf and East Coast should always be prepared for that big hit. At this point this far out the best you can do is monitor the situation. By making landfall predictions this far out you only scare people or throw people off on what to believe. I spoke with the NHC director recently and he talked about how when people look at the 5 day cone they A. Don't think it will hit , B. Think it will weaken, C. Think it will hit in the center of the cone and nobody else.
Take a look at this chart and look at forecast accuracy.
([url]http://img62.imageshack.us/img62/4342/post3106217850013122459.png[/url])
Perhaps when making predictions you should back them up with facts and reasoning (besides saying its in the center of the cone). Start looking at model and satellite data.
The thing is, do not look at the center of the cone. Look at the entire cone. Anyone in the cone should pay attention. Not just the people in the center.
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This is interesting and more concerning.
THE BIGGEST CHANGE IN THE GUIDANCE FOR THIS CYCLE IS THAT THE GFDL AND HWRF NOW SHOW A LITTLE MORE RIDGING EAST OF EMILY LATE IN THE PERIOD AND HAVE SHIFTED THEIR TRACKS WESTWARD...ESPECIALLY AT DAYS 3 AND 4. THROUGH THE FIRST 36 HOURS...THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS ALONG THE OLD TRACK...BUT A LITTLE FASTER AS IT TRENDS TOWARD THE FASTER MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. FROM 48 TO 96 HOURS...THE NEW NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...AND NOW LIES TO THE RIGHT OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. GIVEN THE LARGE CYCLE-TO-CYCLE VARIABILITY SEEN IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE...UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK FORECAST REMAINS LARGER THAN USUAL BEYOND 48 HOURS.
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This is interesting and more concerning.
THE BIGGEST CHANGE IN THE GUIDANCE FOR THIS CYCLE IS THAT THE GFDL AND HWRF NOW SHOW A LITTLE MORE RIDGING EAST OF EMILY LATE IN THE PERIOD AND HAVE SHIFTED THEIR TRACKS WESTWARD...ESPECIALLY AT DAYS 3 AND 4. THROUGH THE FIRST 36 HOURS...THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS ALONG THE OLD TRACK...BUT A LITTLE FASTER AS IT TRENDS TOWARD THE FASTER MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. FROM 48 TO 96 HOURS...THE NEW NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...AND NOW LIES TO THE RIGHT OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. GIVEN THE LARGE CYCLE-TO-CYCLE VARIABILITY SEEN IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE...UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK FORECAST REMAINS LARGER THAN USUAL BEYOND 48 HOURS.
Which ridge? The Bermuda ridge? If so that is interesting.
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The local media in central Florida is generally sending Emily farther and farther to the east of here.
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Looks like Emily's center has become exposed as the thunderstorms are now south and southeast of the center.
I'm also noticing that Emily has yet to make that turn to the northwest toward Hispanola as forecasted the past few days. If and when she does make that turn, she may not go over the middle of the island, but over the western part of the island (Haiti).
I also have an issue with the forecast track. That is quite a hard right Emily is forecasted to make when she gets east of Florida/Georgia. I can't see a turn that sharp.
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I didn't see the 8am cone, but the 11am looks to have shifted west again.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT05/refresh/AL0511W5_NL_sm2+gif/145014W5_NL_sm.gif (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT05/refresh/AL0511W5_NL_sm2+gif/145014W5_NL_sm.gif)
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Yeah...it's a bit concerning at the moment. While it's still a little too far to jump to conclusions...if Emily continues west, there are a few models that suddenly gain credibility.
1.) The BAM family of models which says Emily will head towards the Gulf of Mexico. This may happen if Emily does not react to the weakness in the subtropical ridge that NHC is betting will send it NWard.
2.) The more concerning solution: the HWRF model, which has now been shifting west with the last few runs. The 12Z model run today puts the center making landfall in Central Florida - near Orlando - and then continuing along the East Coast before impacting just north of Charleston and heading slightly inland towards Myrtle Beach.
Again, too far out to tell. This thing still has a chance of being torn apart by the mountains of Hispaniola...and seeing how no more strengthening is now anticipated, she may not survive the trip.
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Yeah...it's a bit concerning at the moment. While it's still a little too far to jump to conclusions...if Emily continues west, there are a few models that suddenly gain credibility.
1.) The BAM family of models which says Emily will head towards the Gulf of Mexico. This may happen if Emily does not react to the weakness in the subtropical ridge that NHC is betting will send it NWard.
2.) The more concerning solution: the HWRF model, which has now been shifting west with the last few runs. The 12Z model run today puts the center making landfall in Central Florida - near Orlando - and then continuing along the East Coast before impacting just north of Charleston and heading slightly inland towards Myrtle Beach.
Again, too far out to tell. This thing still has a chance of being torn apart by the mountains of Hispaniola...and seeing how no more strengthening is now anticipated, she may not survive the trip.
I'm beginning to believe that's very likely to happen. I'm not sure it will be able to recover.
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BAMS, to be specific, has a landfall in Manatee county.. which based on its path, could strengthen it due to only making a landfall at the western tip of Cuba, then a Manatee county landfall..
Here's the latest from myfoxhurricane.com
(http://imgur.com/Jw74z.jpg)
And attached below are some more models
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Hmmm... I'll take HWRF :P Landfall in my area! :bleh:
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I think it's gonna be somewhere in between the HWRF and AVNO tracks.
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NHC now has this storm moving east away from the mid-Atlantic. :(
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NHC now has this storm moving east away from the mid-Atlantic. :(
It wasn't ever expected to get that far north anyway because of persistent troughs moving in around the timeframe she would get there blocking her away.
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Looking at satellite, Emily's center of circulation is now severely exposed. Unless she can really get her act together soon and convection can fire around the center, I am having serious doubts about Emily making it through Hispaniola in one piece.
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O-ho-ho, this is getting interesting...winds staying at 50 for now, but NHC is now acknowledging a possible United States land threat.
THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED WESTWARD DURING THE FIRST 12 TO 24
HOURS...BRINGING EMILY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI AND
THEN EASTERN CUBA. AFTER THAT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST STILL
ASSUMES THAT THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TROUGH WILL DEEPEN SUFFICIENTLY
TO TURN THE CYCLONE NORTHWESTWARD AND NORTHWARD. HOWEVER...IF THE
NORTHWARD TURN DOES NOT BEGIN SOON...THE THREAT TO THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES WILL INCREASE.
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Looks like Emily finally took that WNW turn.
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It looks like Hispaniola is really messing with Emily's organization now...she'll likely turn into a tropical depression in a little bit as she continues to interact with land. There's still potential for reorganization.
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Emily has severely degenerated and will no longer be followed by the National Hurricane Center unless regeneration occurs.
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Emily gets a FAIL Rating :bleh:
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Maybe this storm will teach everyone to stop forecasting for landfalls so far out. Would you all believe that the European model, a non-hurricane and non-US model, was the best one out of all for Emily? It correctly predicted this dissipation to happen. Emily is just a remnant low as the closed center of circulation has opened back up into a trough. We'll have to monitor the remnants to see if any regeneration occurs, but it's not looking likely at this moment.
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This hurricane season blows with all the fish storms and rain storms like last year. I want some real ACTION already..!
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This hurricane season blows with all the fish storms and rain storms like last year. I want some real ACTION already..!
Well were just getting into the peak, things can turn ugly quickly now.
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Maybe this storm will teach everyone to stop forecasting for landfalls so far out. Would you all believe that the European model, a non-hurricane and non-US model, was the best one out of all for Emily? It correctly predicted this dissipation to happen. Emily is just a remnant low as the closed center of circulation has opened back up into a trough. We'll have to monitor the remnants to see if any regeneration occurs, but it's not looking likely at this moment.
Because the ECMWF is da bomb!
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Well, even though she's dissipated, NHC is seeing potential for redevelopment in the next 48 hours. Their latest tropical weather outlook.
THE REMNANTS OF FORMER TROPICAL STORM EMILY ARE LOCATED OVER
HISPANIOLA...THE TURKS AND CAICOS...AND ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS.
THE LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE BAHAMAS AT
10 TO 15 MPH FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR REDEVELOPMENT OF
THIS DISTURBANCE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD
BECOME MORE FAVORABLE BY SATURDAY. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...60
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
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She's alive...SHE's ALIIIIIIIVE!
Emily has reformed as a tropical depression. Check the first few posts for the updated track and wind forecast.
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It looks like she won't be much, though. Projected paths have wind speeds at 40 mph MAX and moving away from the U.S. I don't know how much rain Florida is going to receiving from this... :thinking:
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Florida will only get a few rain squalls and a little surf at best. If you didn't see the forecast track, this quote from NHC sums it up for the United States coastline:
GIVEN THE RELATIVELY WEAK WIND FIELD OF THE DEPRESSION...AND ITS FORECAST MOVEMENT AWAY FROM THE BAHAMAS AND THE UNITED STATES...NO TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE NEEDED. THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.
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Florida will only get a few rain squalls and a little surf at best. If you didn't see the forecast track, this quote from NHC sums it up for the United States coastline:
GIVEN THE RELATIVELY WEAK WIND FIELD OF THE DEPRESSION...AND ITS FORECAST MOVEMENT AWAY FROM THE BAHAMAS AND THE UNITED STATES...NO TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE NEEDED. THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.
How will Central Florida and the Bay Area be affected?
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Florida will only get a few rain squalls and a little surf at best. If you didn't see the forecast track, this quote from NHC sums it up for the United States coastline:
GIVEN THE RELATIVELY WEAK WIND FIELD OF THE DEPRESSION...AND ITS FORECAST MOVEMENT AWAY FROM THE BAHAMAS AND THE UNITED STATES...NO TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE NEEDED. THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.
How will Central Florida and the Bay Area be affected?
If youve watched any of the local weather here (specifically Paul Dellegatto), they have said that Emily will draw in a west-southwest wind for us, keeping lows in the lower to mid-80s :yes:
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How will Central Florida and the Bay Area be affected?
You're not going to experience any impacts from Emily other than the winds Zach mentioned. Emily is already due east of FL and will move away later tonight into tomorrow.
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Florida will only get a few rain squalls and a little surf at best. If you didn't see the forecast track, this quote from NHC sums it up for the United States coastline:
GIVEN THE RELATIVELY WEAK WIND FIELD OF THE DEPRESSION...AND ITS FORECAST MOVEMENT AWAY FROM THE BAHAMAS AND THE UNITED STATES...NO TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE NEEDED. THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.
How will Central Florida and the Bay Area be affected?
If youve watched any of the local weather here (specifically Paul Dellegatto), they have said that Emily will draw in a west-southwest wind for us, keeping lows in the lower to mid-80s :yes:
Sheesh, low to mid 80s! How humid! :o
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Looks like another fish storm... :hmm:
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I think it's time we put a knife through Emily...
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Emily is officially dead, hopefully for good this time around.