Tropical Storm Dorian

[Metarvo]

Can you define a "weak" hurricane season?

I meant "weak" in terms of intensity and impact.  These storms aren't hitting much of anything (not that anyone even wants them to anyway).  A season could have 20 named storms and yet not be particularly notable as long as most of them don't make landfall.

[phw115wvwx]

Dorian is now down to 45 mph winds.  With dry air entrainment, westerly wind shear, and a fast forward speed, NHC is putting this storm into a gradual decline during the next few days with dissipation expected before it even comes close to Florida.  Personally, I really don't think Dorian will survive the next 48 hours.

[Warren Faidley]

It will be interesting to see when the Atlantic conditions improve this year.

Warren

[phw115wvwx]

Dorian has degenerated into a tropical wave after losing its closed circulation.  NHC has issued the final advisory for this system.

[toxictwister00]

Remnants of Dorian has been reassigned an invest number, 91L. 20% chance of development.

EDIT: A RECON flight is scheduled for this afternoon to investigate.

[phw115wvwx]

The reconnaissance flight still could not find a closed circulation.  It remains as an open wave trough, so I doubt the remnants of Dorian will regenerate given the conditions ahead.

[toxictwister00]

Zombie Dorian REFUSES to die with little dignity it has left, it's got a 50/50 shot at TD or TS status again. 

[Zach]

Dorian has come back as a depression, and it's not going to stay much stronger than that.

Code: [Select]

000
WTNT34 KNHC 031431
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DORIAN ADVISORY NUMBER  17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042013
1100 AM EDT SAT AUG 03 2013

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION DORIAN EXPECTED TO WEAKEN LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.6N 78.4W
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM E OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1013 MB...29.91 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION DORIAN
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.4 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS MAINLY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. THE DEPRESSION IS
FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1013 MB...29.91 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA