TWC Today Forums
Weather Discussion => Hazardous Weather => Hurricane Central => Topic started by: toxictwister00 on July 24, 2013, 10:13:52 AM
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I know it's early, but we have our Dorian. What a beauty!
AL, 04, 2013072412, , BEST, 0, 140N, 290W, 35, 1006, TS, 34, NEQ, 30, 0, 0, 30, 1012, 150, 20, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, DORIAN, D,
(http://i41.tinypic.com/15xmpsm.gif)
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is there a chance the dry air ahead of soon to be Dorian would move out of the way? if so i wonder how strong Dorian would get.
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Unless you got an advance copy of the 11:00 advisory, I think you're jumping the gun a little bit. Who's to say it's going to become a tropical storm on the #2 advisory? Or #3? This one apparently has a rough road ahead of it, fast-moving, dry air...
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Unless you got an advance copy of the 11:00 advisory, I think you're jumping the gun a little bit. Who's to say it's going to become a tropical storm on the #2 advisory? Or #3? This one apparently has a rough road ahead of it, fast-moving, dry air...
It's not jumping the gun because it's already been renamed. Usually when they rename an invest or TD it will be updated in the next advisory.
In fact if you check the NHC website right now they have already started updating their page to DORIAN ahead of the advisory.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/#DORIAN (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/#DORIAN)
is there a chance the dry air ahead of soon to be Dorian would move out of the way? if so i wonder how strong Dorian would get.
Alex, there's actually been a decrease in dry air out ahead and north of Dorian this month. It's still there, but it's not as heavily concentrated like it was a few weeks ago so I don't don't believe the dry air will be the issue, however wind shear and cooler SSTs (Sea Surface Temperatures) Dorian is traveling into likely will cause problems in the long term.
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DORIAN
11:00 AM EDT Wed Jul 24
Location: 14.3°N 29.9°W
Moving: WNW at 21 mph
Min pressure: 1002 mb
Max sustained: 50 mph
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Ugh.. I really hope that tropical disturbance the GFS keeps showing 384 hours out entering the Caribbean doesn't form. I'm going to be in the Keys around that time and the last thing I want any tropical disturbance to be around, even if it's remnants.
:facepalm:
At least it'll be just a tropical storm. Don't see this thing becoming too strong. Tropical storms are pretty over rated though.
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12z GFS is VERY excited about Dorian. It keeps it robust it's entire trip through the Atlantic. This run suggests no United States Landfall, but it gets close...
Loop: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsfull/2013072412/gfsfull_pres_pcpn_atl.html (http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsfull/2013072412/gfsfull_pres_pcpn_atl.html)
I on the other hand don't share the same enthusiasm the GFS does right now. :no:
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12z GFS is VERY excited about Dorian. It keeps it robust it's entire trip through the Atlantic. This run suggests no United States Landfall, but it gets close...
Loop: [url]http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsfull/2013072412/gfsfull_pres_pcpn_atl.html[/url] ([url]http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsfull/2013072412/gfsfull_pres_pcpn_atl.html[/url])
I on the other hand don't share the same enthusiasm the GFS does right now. :no:
Are you saying you want it to affect the U.S. mainland?
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It's way too early to talk about the United States with this system. The winds are at 50 mph, but Dorian has a difficult environment ahead with cooler sea surface temperatures and increasing wind shear. I'm more wondering if it will even survive like Chantal as the forward speed of Dorian is too fast at 21 mph. Let's wait and see if it reaches the Leeward Islands first.
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It's way too early to talk about the United States with this system. The winds are at 50 mph, but Dorian has a difficult environment ahead with cooler sea surface temperatures and increasing wind shear. I'm more wondering if it will even survive like Chantal as the forward speed of Dorian is too fast at 21 mph. Let's wait and see if it reaches the Leeward Islands first.
It just came off the coast of Africa, didn't it, like a day or two ago? I think you're right.
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Dorian is holding steady at 50 mph as of the 11pm advisory. According to the discussion for this advisory, the NHC is no longer concerned about Dorian briefly weakening from SSTs, in fact they highlight SSTs have warmed up the past few days in the area Dorian is heading into, coupled into it's swift movement at 20 mph, upwelling is becoming less likely as well.
As of the 11pm advisory, the NHC is forecasting steady, then gradual strengthening to a 65 mph tropical storm as it gets within reach of the Bahamas by Day 5.
AN ANIMATION OF SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE FIELDS INDICATES THAT THE
WATERS AHEAD OF DORIAN HAVE BEEN WARMING OVER THE PAST FEW
DAYS...AND IT APPEARS THAT THE CYCLONE WILL LIKELY REMAIN OVER
WATERS A LITTLE WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. IN
ADDITION...DORIAN SHOULD BE MOVING FAST ENOUGH THAT UPWELLING OF
COOLER WATER SHOULD NOT BE MUCH OF A FACTOR. THEREFORE...THE NEW
NHC INTENSITY FORECAST NO LONGER SHOWS SHORT-TERM WEAKENING AND
INSTEAD INDICATES SLIGHT STRENGTHENING THROUGH DAY 5. THIS
FORECAST IS JUST A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE FLORIDA STATE
SUPERENSEMBLE AND THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS...BUT NOT NEARLY AS HIGH
AS THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS. CONFIDENCE IN
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS RATHER LOW AT THIS POINT UNTIL WE KNOW
HOW DORIAN FARES OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 25/0300Z 15.1N 33.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 25/1200Z 15.7N 35.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 26/0000Z 16.5N 39.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 26/1200Z 17.2N 42.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 27/0000Z 17.9N 46.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 28/0000Z 19.0N 54.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 29/0000Z 20.0N 60.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 30/0000Z 20.5N 65.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
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They're saying Dorian will be driven out to sea by a trough and therefore won't impact the East Coast at all. It seems as though we're having a weak hurricane season so far, although that would be considered a good thing by those who have suffered through many of these storms in years past. However, it's only July.
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They're saying Dorian will be driven out to sea by a trough and therefore won't impact the East Coast at all. It seems as though we're having a weak hurricane season so far, although that would be considered a good thing by those who have suffered through many of these storms in years past. However, it's only July.
That will become a little more clear after this weekend into next week. I put it at a 50/50 shot though.
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They're saying Dorian will be driven out to sea by a trough and therefore won't impact the East Coast at all. It seems as though we're having a weak hurricane season so far, although that would be considered a good thing by those who have suffered through many of these storms in years past. However, it's only July.
Can you define a "weak" hurricane season? We've now matched the pace of last year for number of storms, and climatologically two storms in July is well above average.
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...DORIAN A LITTLE WEAKER...
11:00 PM AST Thu Jul 25
Location: 16.6°N 39.6°W
Moving: WNW at 20 mph
Min pressure: 1001 mb
Max sustained: 50 mph
NHC track is slightly further south and west than previously. In addition the forecasted wind intensities has been lowered from that fairly generous 70 mph they were forecasting for days 4-5. The highest they're going now in that range is 60 mph.
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Can you define a "weak" hurricane season?
I meant "weak" in terms of intensity and impact. These storms aren't hitting much of anything (not that anyone even wants them to anyway). A season could have 20 named storms and yet not be particularly notable as long as most of them don't make landfall.
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Dorian is now down to 45 mph winds. With dry air entrainment, westerly wind shear, and a fast forward speed, NHC is putting this storm into a gradual decline during the next few days with dissipation expected before it even comes close to Florida. Personally, I really don't think Dorian will survive the next 48 hours.
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It will be interesting to see when the Atlantic conditions improve this year.
Warren
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Dorian has degenerated into a tropical wave after losing its closed circulation. NHC has issued the final advisory for this system.
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Remnants of Dorian has been reassigned an invest number, 91L. 20% chance of development.
EDIT: A RECON flight is scheduled for this afternoon to investigate.
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The reconnaissance flight still could not find a closed circulation. It remains as an open wave trough, so I doubt the remnants of Dorian will regenerate given the conditions ahead.
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Zombie Dorian REFUSES to die with little dignity it has left, it's got a 50/50 shot at TD or TS status again. :poke: :itsok:
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Dorian has come back as a depression, and it's not going to stay much stronger than that.
000
WTNT34 KNHC 031431
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DORIAN ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042013
1100 AM EDT SAT AUG 03 2013
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION DORIAN EXPECTED TO WEAKEN LATER TODAY...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
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LOCATION...30.6N 78.4W
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM E OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1013 MB...29.91 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
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THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
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AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION DORIAN
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.4 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS MAINLY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. THE DEPRESSION IS
FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1013 MB...29.91 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA