Tropical Storm Dorian

[toxictwister00]

I know it's early, but we have our Dorian. What a beauty!

AL, 04, 2013072412, , BEST, 0, 140N, 290W, 35, 1006, TS, 34, NEQ, 30, 0, 0, 30, 1012, 150, 20, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, DORIAN, D,

[gt1racerlHDl]

is there a chance the dry air ahead of soon to be Dorian would move out of the way? if so i wonder how strong Dorian would get.

[Eric]

Unless you got an advance copy of the 11:00 advisory, I think you're jumping the gun a little bit.  Who's to say it's going to become a tropical storm on the #2 advisory?  Or #3?  This one apparently has a rough road ahead of it, fast-moving, dry air...

[toxictwister00]

Unless you got an advance copy of the 11:00 advisory, I think you're jumping the gun a little bit.  Who's to say it's going to become a tropical storm on the #2 advisory?  Or #3?  This one apparently has a rough road ahead of it, fast-moving, dry air...

It's not jumping the gun because it's already been renamed. Usually when they rename an invest or TD it will be updated in the next advisory.

In fact if you check the NHC website right now they have already started updating their page to DORIAN ahead of the advisory.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/#DORIAN

is there a chance the dry air ahead of soon to be Dorian would move out of the way? if so i wonder how strong Dorian would get.

Alex, there's actually been a decrease in dry air out ahead and north of Dorian this month. It's still there, but it's not as heavily concentrated like it was a few weeks ago so I don't don't believe the dry air will be the issue, however wind shear and cooler SSTs (Sea Surface Temperatures) Dorian is traveling into likely will cause problems in the long term.

[toxictwister00]

DORIAN
11:00 AM EDT Wed Jul 24
Location: 14.3°N 29.9°W
Moving: WNW at 21 mph
Min pressure: 1002 mb
Max sustained: 50 mph

[TWCCraig]

Ugh.. I really hope that tropical disturbance the GFS keeps showing 384 hours out entering the Caribbean doesn't form. I'm going to be in the Keys around that time and the last thing I want any tropical disturbance to be around, even if it's remnants.

 



At least it'll be just a tropical storm. Don't see this thing becoming too strong.  Tropical storms are pretty over rated though.

[toxictwister00]

12z GFS is VERY excited about Dorian. It keeps it robust it's entire trip through the Atlantic. This run suggests no United States Landfall, but it gets close...
Loop: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsfull/2013072412/gfsfull_pres_pcpn_atl.html

I on the other hand don't share the same enthusiasm the GFS does right now.

[Lightning]

12z GFS is VERY excited about Dorian. It keeps it robust it's entire trip through the Atlantic. This run suggests no United States Landfall, but it gets close...
Loop: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsfull/2013072412/gfsfull_pres_pcpn_atl.html

I on the other hand don't share the same enthusiasm the GFS does right now.

Are you saying you want it to affect the U.S. mainland?

[phw115wvwx]

It's way too early to talk about the United States with this system.  The winds are at 50 mph, but Dorian has a difficult environment ahead with cooler sea surface temperatures and increasing wind shear.  I'm more wondering if it will even survive like Chantal as the forward speed of Dorian is too fast at 21 mph.  Let's wait and see if it reaches the Leeward Islands first.

[Lightning]

It's way too early to talk about the United States with this system.  The winds are at 50 mph, but Dorian has a difficult environment ahead with cooler sea surface temperatures and increasing wind shear.  I'm more wondering if it will even survive like Chantal as the forward speed of Dorian is too fast at 21 mph.  Let's wait and see if it reaches the Leeward Islands first.

It just came off the coast of Africa, didn't it, like a day or two ago? I think you're right.

[toxictwister00]

Dorian is holding steady at 50 mph as of the 11pm advisory. According to the discussion for this advisory, the NHC is no longer concerned about Dorian briefly weakening from SSTs, in fact they highlight SSTs have warmed up the past few days in the area Dorian is heading into, coupled into it's swift movement at 20 mph, upwelling is becoming less likely as well.

As of the 11pm advisory, the NHC is forecasting steady, then gradual strengthening to a 65 mph tropical storm as it gets within reach of the Bahamas by Day 5.

Code: [Select]

AN ANIMATION OF SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE FIELDS INDICATES THAT THE
WATERS AHEAD OF DORIAN HAVE BEEN WARMING OVER THE PAST FEW
DAYS...AND IT APPEARS THAT THE CYCLONE WILL LIKELY REMAIN OVER
WATERS A LITTLE WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED.  IN
ADDITION...DORIAN SHOULD BE MOVING FAST ENOUGH THAT UPWELLING OF
COOLER WATER SHOULD NOT BE MUCH OF A FACTOR.  THEREFORE...THE NEW
NHC INTENSITY FORECAST NO LONGER SHOWS SHORT-TERM WEAKENING AND
INSTEAD INDICATES SLIGHT STRENGTHENING THROUGH DAY 5.  THIS
FORECAST IS JUST A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE FLORIDA STATE
SUPERENSEMBLE AND THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS...BUT NOT NEARLY AS HIGH
AS THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS.  CONFIDENCE IN
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS RATHER LOW AT THIS POINT UNTIL WE KNOW
HOW DORIAN FARES OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  25/0300Z 15.1N  33.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  25/1200Z 15.7N  35.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  26/0000Z 16.5N  39.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  26/1200Z 17.2N  42.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  27/0000Z 17.9N  46.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  28/0000Z 19.0N  54.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 96H  29/0000Z 20.0N  60.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  30/0000Z 20.5N  65.5W   55 KT  65 MPH

[Metarvo]

They're saying Dorian will be driven out to sea by a trough and therefore won't impact the East Coast at all.  It seems as though we're having a weak hurricane season so far, although that would be considered a good thing by those who have suffered through many of these storms in years past.  However, it's only July.

[toxictwister00]

They're saying Dorian will be driven out to sea by a trough and therefore won't impact the East Coast at all.  It seems as though we're having a weak hurricane season so far, although that would be considered a good thing by those who have suffered through many of these storms in years past.  However, it's only July.

That will become a little more clear after this weekend into next week. I put it at a 50/50 shot though.

[Mr. Rainman]

They're saying Dorian will be driven out to sea by a trough and therefore won't impact the East Coast at all.  It seems as though we're having a weak hurricane season so far, although that would be considered a good thing by those who have suffered through many of these storms in years past.  However, it's only July.

Can you define a "weak" hurricane season? We've now matched the pace of last year for number of storms, and climatologically two storms in July is well above average.

[toxictwister00]

...DORIAN A LITTLE WEAKER...

11:00 PM AST Thu Jul 25
Location: 16.6°N 39.6°W
Moving: WNW at 20 mph
Min pressure: 1001 mb
Max sustained: 50 mph

NHC track is slightly further south and west than previously. In addition the forecasted wind intensities has been lowered from that fairly generous 70 mph they were forecasting for days 4-5. The highest they're going now in that range is 60 mph.