Tropical Storm Don

[Mr. Rainman]

I do believe they may move the cone a little farther south later today - despite the fact that all the models told a much more northern path in the latest run.

Since Don is so tiny, it can change intensities rather rapidly, so there is a chance Don may become a hurricane when it makes landfall. It all really depends on how strong the shear gets. The hurricane hunters observed them at 10-15 knots, but forecasts suggest a slight strengthening from that.

[Lightning]

Hopefully, Don will help more than harm Texas. Hopefully, Don will bring some very much-needed rain to that drought-stricken state. I certianly believe that it will help put a good dent in the drought there, however, unfortunately, the situation has reached such a critical level that it will not end it. For a drought like that to end, you have to have heavy rainfall rather frequently over a period of time. But, Don will help get that process started, hopefully. 

[twcctornado77]

I can see Don just barely getting to hurricane strength. I think Don's gonna do like Alex did last year- go just south of the Tex/Mex border, with Don becoming a tornado producer over S TX. Just my $0.02.

[Nimmy]

In the next advisory Tropical Storm Don will have winds up to 50 mph! http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/storm.asp?storm_identifier=AL042011

[toxictwister00]

While on another weather forum, there were some members reporting that hurricane hunters were finding a pressure as low as 996mb That's quite a significant drop from what it is right now if it turns out to be right around the center.

[Eric]

While on another weather forum, there were some members reporting that hurricane hunters were finding a pressure as low as 996mb That's quite a significant drop from what it is right now if it turns out to be right around the center.

It will be interesting to see what the 11:00 (ET) advisory is.  Given the environment that Don's in, I doubt that it's managed to strengthen to 996 mb.

[toxictwister00]

While on another weather forum, there were some members reporting that hurricane hunters were finding a pressure as low as 996mb That's quite a significant drop from what it is right now if it turns out to be right around the center.

It will be interesting to see what the 11:00 (ET) advisory is.  Given the environment that Don's in, I doubt that it's managed to strengthen to 996 mb.

On infrared, it looks like a big, red ball floating around in the water.

[Mr. Rainman]

Those other members are right: recon found those values not exactly near the center of Don, but close enough. The latest report I heard from a contact of mine said winds near the center sat at 65 mph, and that the central pressure was 995 mb. I haven't verified this report on the wind speed, though.

[twcctornado77]

Don looks like it's meandering to the west slightly.

[Mr. Rainman]

Latest analysis from NHC: winds at 50 mph with central pressure at 998 mb. Not forecasted to make landfall as a hurricane.

[phw115wvwx]

Don's center is still tilted with height, and there's northerly shear over it now.  I don't see this storm going much stronger than 60 mph at landfall, and I think only southern TX will see any real drought relief.

[Pop Light Brown]

I think Don will come in between North Padre Island and Corpus Christi as a 60-70 mph tropical storm.

[toxictwister00]

I can pretty much throw in the towel on my forecast prediction of a 75-85mph hurricane (well I did that last night when it was becoming obvious that the dry air and wind shear was not gonna leave this poor critter alone) I'm not even sure if it will get above 55mph before landfall now. I'm estimating landfall to be between Brownsville and Corpus Christi and time wise should be 7-10pm.

[Mr. Rainman]

The outer rain bands of Don are showing up on Brownsville radar. I think we can expect a tornado watch out of the SPC today for Southeast Texas, since there is a slight potential for tornadoes as Don comes ashore.

[phw115wvwx]

I can pretty much throw in the towel on my forecast prediction of a 75-85mph hurricane (well I did that last night when it was becoming obvious that the dry air and wind shear was not gonna leave this poor critter alone) I'm not even sure if it will get above 55mph before landfall now. I'm estimating landfall to be between Brownsville and Corpus Christi and time wise should be 7-10pm.

That's why I was a little shocked at your prediction of it reaching a hurricane.  There wasn't a great environment for it, and Don never looked healthy to me the entire time.  Furthermore, my first post about it was not just my opinion.  I have a forecaster in the office whose specialty is hurricanes, so he told me right away this storm wouldn't do much.  After he showed me the organization of it, I was very unimpressed.