TWC Today Forums
Weather Discussion => Hazardous Weather => Hurricane Central => Topic started by: Mr. Rainman on July 27, 2011, 04:55:18 PM
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Tropical Storm Don has formed in the Gulf of Mexico. More details to follow.
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NHC takes Don right into Southern/Southeastern Texas in the next few days. Max winds of 65 mph, and will likely bring some much needed rainfall to region, with rainfall totals at least around 2 inches.
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(http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT04/refresh/AL0411W5_NL_sm2+gif/205313W5_NL_sm.gif)
(http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT04/refresh/AL0411_PROB34_F120_sm2+gif/205313.gif)
(http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT04/refresh/AL0411_PROB64_F120_sm2+gif/205313.gif)
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Which topic to choose? Lol.
As Mike said, Texas is in dire need of this rain. And I got to give credit to TWC on this one--they beat the Baton Rouge news at 4 because at 4:05 , meteorologist Pat Shingleton said it was only a depression.
I wish it would come a bit closer to Cajun Country so I could feel some wind from this one, but I would rather Texas have the rain in the long run. The season sure is pretty active though; even last year, the "D" storm Danielle formed late August 2010, and it's still only July. There is a ways to go, for sure.
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Looks like the Houston IS and Galveston IS (IS2 if they have it) will get some work with the Local and Regional Radars + Radar/Satellite, i wish i was out there to catch Don on it.
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Lookin' good! (Much more consolidated and organized than this morning) ;)
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Looks like the Houston IS and Galveston IS (IS2 if they have it) will get some work with the Local and Regional Radars + Radar/Satellite, i wish i was out there to catch Don on it.
Why is that? I don't remember that change, but I'm a noob, so what do I know?
It's looking pretty good now, and my favorite and very reliable Jay Grymes thinks it will make it to a minimak hurricane before landfall.
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None of you guys are looking carefully at this system's structure. :no: Don is very elongated right now, and the center of circulation is exposed. Most of the convection is firing up on the land rather than around the center. The models barely hold on to it over the next few days. There's an upper-level low to its west that isn't cooperating either. Don will be lucky to strengthen to a strong tropical storm unless some dramatic atmospheric changes occur.
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Why is that?
i meant when don appears on their radars they will be doing work lol
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I agree with Patrick on this one...the models just aren't really favoring a lot of development from Don. There is a tropical storm watch out from Port Mansfield northward to west of San Luis Pass now. Max forecast winds remain at 65 mph at landfall.
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I disagree. Models are nothing but guidance, and frankly their guidance hasn't been that good except for showing all the players that can help and inhibit Don. Most of the global models didn't even pick up on a "Don" until today. In two days this little critter went from being a dead fish floatin' on water to a tropical storm. I might be too optimistic, but I can see this pulling a Humberto on us. I think it's proximity to the Yucatan is one of the problems why it's having a hard time. Those SSTs certainly won't be a problem where in some spots of the GOM it's sizzling bath water approaching 90 degrees.
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I agree with Patrick on this one...the models just aren't really favoring a lot of development from Don. There is a tropical storm watch out from Port Mansfield northward to west of San Luis Pass now. Max forecast winds remain at 65 mph at landfall.
TWC shows that on their graphic, but NOAA doesn't... Both maps are not covering the same area, there's a gap in the warningswatches on NOAA. :thinking:
EDIT: Nevermind, it's been updated on NOAA's website.
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Well, I'm just going with what my local weatherman is saying. He really seems to think the models are underestimating its strength. Well, I'm no meteorologist (yet, hopefully), but I thought it looked decent. Only time will tell.
And you make a good point, Patrick.
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Tropical Storm warning out from Ports Manfield to just west of San Luis Pass now, and a watch extended to the mouth of the Rio Grande River.
If there were any model runs that suggested hurricane strength, they're gone now. The most optimistic model I see is the LGEM - and that takes max wind speeds to about 53 knots - just over 60 mph. There just isn't enough time for Don to really get its act together and get better organized. At this point, Hurricane Don seems unlikely.
EDIT: Technical reason for slow intensification - dry air to the west, light/moderate shear for the next two days.
Landfall on the coastline of Texas probably early Saturday morning - around midnight or 1 AM.
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At the moment, I still believe Don will briefly reach hurricane status (75-85mph) before making landfall. Now that he's moving away from the Yucatan, it appears it's trying to redevelop convective activity near the center again. I guess we'll have to see how it behaves in the environment it's in today.
EDIT: Also I have a feeling that the forecast cone will shift southward, Don seems to be moving more westerly than northwesterly or west-northwesterly.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-vis.html (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-vis.html)
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I do believe they may move the cone a little farther south later today - despite the fact that all the models told a much more northern path in the latest run.
Since Don is so tiny, it can change intensities rather rapidly, so there is a chance Don may become a hurricane when it makes landfall. It all really depends on how strong the shear gets. The hurricane hunters observed them at 10-15 knots, but forecasts suggest a slight strengthening from that.
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Hopefully, Don will help more than harm Texas. Hopefully, Don will bring some very much-needed rain to that drought-stricken state. I certianly believe that it will help put a good dent in the drought there, however, unfortunately, the situation has reached such a critical level that it will not end it. For a drought like that to end, you have to have heavy rainfall rather frequently over a period of time. But, Don will help get that process started, hopefully. :yes:
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I can see Don just barely getting to hurricane strength. I think Don's gonna do like Alex did last year- go just south of the Tex/Mex border, with Don becoming a tornado producer over S TX. Just my $0.02.
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In the next advisory Tropical Storm Don will have winds up to 50 mph! http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/storm.asp?storm_identifier=AL042011 (http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/storm.asp?storm_identifier=AL042011)
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While on another weather forum, there were some members reporting that hurricane hunters were finding a pressure as low as 996mb That's quite a significant drop from what it is right now if it turns out to be right around the center.
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While on another weather forum, there were some members reporting that hurricane hunters were finding a pressure as low as 996mb That's quite a significant drop from what it is right now if it turns out to be right around the center.
It will be interesting to see what the 11:00 (ET) advisory is. Given the environment that Don's in, I doubt that it's managed to strengthen to 996 mb.
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While on another weather forum, there were some members reporting that hurricane hunters were finding a pressure as low as 996mb That's quite a significant drop from what it is right now if it turns out to be right around the center.
It will be interesting to see what the 11:00 (ET) advisory is. Given the environment that Don's in, I doubt that it's managed to strengthen to 996 mb.
On infrared, it looks like a big, red ball floating around in the water. :lol:
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Those other members are right: recon found those values not exactly near the center of Don, but close enough. The latest report I heard from a contact of mine said winds near the center sat at 65 mph, and that the central pressure was 995 mb. I haven't verified this report on the wind speed, though.
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Don looks like it's meandering to the west slightly.
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Latest analysis from NHC: winds at 50 mph with central pressure at 998 mb. Not forecasted to make landfall as a hurricane.
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Don's center is still tilted with height, and there's northerly shear over it now. I don't see this storm going much stronger than 60 mph at landfall, and I think only southern TX will see any real drought relief.
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I think Don will come in between North Padre Island and Corpus Christi as a 60-70 mph tropical storm.
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I can pretty much throw in the towel on my forecast prediction of a 75-85mph hurricane (well I did that last night when it was becoming obvious that the dry air and wind shear was not gonna leave this poor critter alone) I'm not even sure if it will get above 55mph before landfall now. I'm estimating landfall to be between Brownsville and Corpus Christi and time wise should be 7-10pm.
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The outer rain bands of Don are showing up on Brownsville radar. I think we can expect a tornado watch out of the SPC today for Southeast Texas, since there is a slight potential for tornadoes as Don comes ashore.
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I can pretty much throw in the towel on my forecast prediction of a 75-85mph hurricane (well I did that last night when it was becoming obvious that the dry air and wind shear was not gonna leave this poor critter alone) I'm not even sure if it will get above 55mph before landfall now. I'm estimating landfall to be between Brownsville and Corpus Christi and time wise should be 7-10pm.
That's why I was a little shocked at your prediction of it reaching a hurricane. There wasn't a great environment for it, and Don never looked healthy to me the entire time. Furthermore, my first post about it was not just my opinion. I have a forecaster in the office whose specialty is hurricanes, so he told me right away this storm wouldn't do much. After he showed me the organization of it, I was very unimpressed.
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I can pretty much throw in the towel on my forecast prediction of a 75-85mph hurricane (well I did that last night when it was becoming obvious that the dry air and wind shear was not gonna leave this poor critter alone) I'm not even sure if it will get above 55mph before landfall now. I'm estimating landfall to be between Brownsville and Corpus Christi and time wise should be 7-10pm.
That's why I was a little shocked at your prediction of it reaching a hurricane. There wasn't a great environment for it, and Don never looked healthy to me the entire time. Furthermore, my first post about it was not just my opinion. I have a forecaster in the office whose specialty is hurricanes, so he told me right away this storm wouldn't do much. After he showed me the organization of it, I was very unimpressed.
I was being a little too optimistic, there were times where it looked like it was going to pull through regardless of the wind shear and dry air, but that turned out to not be the case. It looks so pathetic on radar, I feel so sorry for it. It's actually trying to be one of the good guys, but the big, bad, tough wind shear and dry air won't stop riding on his back. :P
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If I was the SPC, I'd put a Tornado Watch up from Corpus Christi to Brownsville.
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7-10 hours in advance? :huh:
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SPC's already added a slight risk to Southeastern Texas well before their latest convective outlook is due...implies to me they're planning to issue one in the short term.
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7-10 hours in advance? :huh:
I remember with Georges, the SPC put up a 24 hour Tornado Watch.... better safe than sorry.
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7-10 hours in advance? :huh:
I remember with Georges, the SPC put up a 24 hour Tornado Watch.... better safe than sorry.
Here's the discussion
(http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd1785.gif)
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1785
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0313 PM CDT FRI JUL 29 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS COASTAL S TX.
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 292013Z - 292245Z
TORNADO POTENTIAL...WHILE INITIALLY QUITE MRGL...MAY INCREASE DURING
REMAINDER AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG PORTIONS TX COAST AS CENTER OF
TS DON NEARS PROJECTED LANDFALL.
PER NHC FCSTS...CENTER SHOULD CONTINUE TO APCH COAST BETWEEN
BRO-CRP. ONCE CENTER GETS TO WITHIN ABOUT 20-30 NM OF
LANDFALL...LEADING PORTION OF MOST KINEMATICALLY FAVORABLE SECTOR OF
SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD ONSHORE TO ITS N...INCREASING IN
COVERAGE WITH TIME AS DON TRANSLATES PROGRESSIVELY FARTHER INLAND.
GRADUAL ENLARGEMENT OF LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS IS EVIDENT IN CRP
ALREADY...AND WILE STILL TOO SMALL TO SUPPORT SUSTAINED SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES...IS EXPECTED TO RAMP UP PACE OF INCREASE IN 0-1 KM AGL
SHEAR FROM NOW THROUGH POST-LANDFALL PHASE.
MAIN LIMITING FACTORS WILL BE
1. SPATIAL...GIVEN SMALL RADII OF FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL FLOW/SHEAR IN
THIS SYSTEM. THIS WILL GREATLY LIMIT LOW-LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR
AVAILABLE TO CONVECTION WELL NE OF CENTER--INCLUDING
OUTFLOW-DOMINANT/MULTICELLULAR ACTIVITY NOW OBSERVED ACROSS
MID-UPPER TX COASTAL PLAIN. SHEAR THERE IS NOT EXPECTED TO INCREASE
GIVEN PATH OF CENTER PASSING ABEAM/AWAY FROM AREA WITH TIME.
2. MODAL...WITH LACK OF CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IN REGION OF MOST
FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR NNW THROUGH SE OF CENTER.
AS SUCH...IT IS NOT YET CLEAR THAT THREAT WARRANTS TORNADO WW...BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONVECTIVE AND ENVIRONMENTAL WIND TRENDS
FOR POSSIBLE ISSUANCE LATER TODAY.
REF NHC ADVISORIES FOR LATEST GUIDANCE ON FCST TRACK/INTENSITY OF
DON.
..EDWARDS.. 07/29/2011
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Looks like the dry air literally DEVOURED Don judging by radar, he's starting to make a disappearing act. Poor South Texas, It's bad enough the whole state wasn't going to see rain, but it's worse when it's so dry in your state it virtually destroys a tropical system from bringing drought relief. :(
I would suspect we will see the last advisory issued on Don, there's no doubt in my mind this thing is a depression or remnant low.
(http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/lite/N0R/BRO_loop.gif)
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Yeah, don't even think the estimated minimum of 2 inches fell in Texas as NHC forecasted. If they want any rain, the storm is gonna have to be a lot stronger.
Weird thing is, the Hurricane Hunters are still picking up wind gusts to 48 mph...which suggests that Don still has his winds going at around 40 sustained. We'll see at the next update.
Here we are, radar estimates show while over 13.5 inches of rain fell in the center of the storm...locally the average rainfall was probably less than an inch. 5 inches of rain was recorded in San Benito, but that's as high as I see it onshore.
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I have to give the computer models their props, several of them kept wanting Don to be D.O.A. This must be some kind of record. I never seen a tropical storm fall apart so rapidly before making landfall. I busted big time on this one. :doh: Oh well there's always the next one to watch.
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Sad for Texas - they really needed the rain, and usually a tropical cyclone is the usual, though rare, relief from such a drought. It's amazing how quickly the storm just disintegrated as it made landfall. TWC is showing the satellite now - it all but disappeared!! They just switched to the radar in the background - there's just nothing left of this storm.
I think Don has, at the absolute most, two advisories left, and that includes an intermediate, though, at the rate this storm's falling apart, the next advisory could easily be its last.
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Don has been downgraded to a tropical depression, and the NHC will continue to follow it for at least another 12 to possibly 24 hours. Otherwise, Don is a goner. This is a sad day for Texas.
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Now downgraded to a remnant low. This morning starting to see some showers develop off shore and some around the Houston area.... Maybe enought moistrue left today for a few sprinkles, but I doubt that really. Sad for Texas, but the silver lineing is that the cotton crops we're destroyed with rain and wind.
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The National Hurricane Center, I found out this morning, has an amusing sense of humor. Ladies and gentlemen, I present to you the last tropical discussion on Don, appropriately titled, "The Don is dead."
THE DON IS DEAD. THE CYCLONE LITERALLY EVAPORATED OVER TEXAS ABOUT
AS FAST AS I HAVE EVER SEEN WITHOUT MOUNTAINS INVOLVED. DON HAS NO
CONVECTION...MEAGER RAINFALL...AND ONLY A SLIGHT SIGNATURE IN
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR DATA. THEREFORE...THIS IS THE LAST
ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM. DON SHOULD OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH LATER
TODAY AS IT MOVES TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO POSE
A RAINFALL THREAT.
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Ha-ha, that's funny but very appropriate. I was surprised, too.
Well, my weatherman also admitted that his prediction was wrong. He too thought Don would make it to a mininal hurricane. Patrick had this one right. You might need to be Knabb's replacement in ten years. :P
Also, I learned that if I ever get into weather, I am not going to make a prediction like the one my weatherman made. I'm just going to report the facts.
Don, you were an epic fail to Texas's drought-relief hopes.
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Wow... that dry air massacred Don. I thought it would landfall as a 60 MPH TS. It landfell as nothing.
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The National Hurricane Center, I found out this morning, has an amusing sense of humor.
Yeah, some of the forecasters do like to add their own personal touches to their reports. It makes for interesting reading. :)
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The first time my name is attached to a tropical system, and it ends up being the biggest dud I've ever seen. :rofl2:
Don't get me wrong, I'm not rooting for destruction, and I never will. I'm very glad there was none.
Thing is, this system had the potential to deliver significant rainfall to areas that desperately need it. This TS could've been a very GOOD thing, which is almost unheard of. Nowhere near an inch fell anywhere. :no:
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Don may be the biggest flop ever. :rofl2:
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Now you know why my forecast was as stated for Don. ;) I had never seen a tropical storm develop so poorly to where the convection wanted to fire over the Yucatan Peninsula more than than the center of the circulation. Furthermore, the circulation was tilted with height most of the time and not upright. You don't get good updrafts when it's sloped!
I seriously think the ongoing drought played a major role here. With virtually no soil moisture in the TX region, a huge hot and dry air mass has been sitting there. All of the moisture literally evaporated out of Don in that air mass. If TX had not been in a drought, there would be far more moisture in the air to allow further penetration inland. See, even little things like the amount of soil moisture can mean a lot with large systems.
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Don was literally choked to death by Dry Air.