Tropical Storm Don

[Mr. Rainman]

Tropical Storm Don has formed in the Gulf of Mexico. More details to follow.

[Mr. Rainman]

NHC takes Don right into Southern/Southeastern Texas in the next few days. Max winds of 65 mph, and will likely bring some much needed rainfall to region, with rainfall totals at least around 2 inches.

[Trevor]

[twcfan68]

Which topic to choose? Lol.

As Mike said, Texas is in dire need of this rain. And I got to give credit to TWC on this one--they beat the Baton Rouge news at 4 because at 4:05 , meteorologist Pat Shingleton said it was only a depression.

I wish it would come a bit closer to Cajun Country so I could feel some wind from this one, but I would rather Texas have the rain in the long run. The season sure is pretty active though; even last year, the "D" storm Danielle formed late August 2010, and it's still only July. There is a ways to go, for sure.

[gt1racerlHDl]

Looks like the Houston IS and Galveston IS (IS2 if they have it) will get some work with the Local and Regional Radars + Radar/Satellite, i wish i was out there to catch Don on it.

[toxictwister00]

Lookin' good!  (Much more consolidated and organized than this morning) 

[twcfan68]

Looks like the Houston IS and Galveston IS (IS2 if they have it) will get some work with the Local and Regional Radars + Radar/Satellite, i wish i was out there to catch Don on it.

Why is that? I don't remember that change, but I'm a noob, so what do I know?

It's looking pretty good now, and my favorite and very reliable Jay Grymes thinks it will make it to a minimak hurricane before landfall.

[phw115wvwx]

None of you guys are looking carefully at this system's structure.   Don is very elongated right now, and the center of circulation is exposed.  Most of the convection is firing up on the land rather than around the center.  The models barely hold on to it over the next few days.  There's an upper-level low to its west that isn't cooperating either.  Don will be lucky to strengthen to a strong tropical storm unless some dramatic atmospheric changes occur.

[gt1racerlHDl]

Why is that?

i meant when don appears on their radars they will be doing work lol

[Mr. Rainman]

I agree with Patrick on this one...the models just aren't really favoring a lot of development from Don. There is a tropical storm watch out from Port Mansfield northward to west of San Luis Pass now. Max forecast winds remain at 65 mph at landfall.

[toxictwister00]

I disagree. Models are nothing but guidance, and frankly their guidance hasn't been that good except for showing all the players that can help and inhibit Don. Most of the global models didn't even pick up on a "Don" until today. In two days this little critter went from being a dead fish floatin' on water to a tropical storm. I might be too optimistic, but I can see this pulling a Humberto on us. I think it's proximity to the Yucatan is one of the problems why it's having a hard time.  Those SSTs certainly won't be a problem where in some spots of the GOM it's sizzling bath water approaching 90 degrees. 

[toxictwister00]

I agree with Patrick on this one...the models just aren't really favoring a lot of development from Don. There is a tropical storm watch out from Port Mansfield northward to west of San Luis Pass now. Max forecast winds remain at 65 mph at landfall.

TWC shows that on their graphic, but NOAA doesn't... Both maps are not covering the same area, there's a gap in the warningswatches on NOAA.

EDIT: Nevermind, it's been updated on NOAA's website.

[twcfan68]

Well, I'm just going with what my local weatherman is saying. He really seems to think the models are underestimating its strength. Well, I'm no meteorologist (yet, hopefully), but I thought it looked decent. Only time will tell.

And you make a good point, Patrick.

[Mr. Rainman]

Tropical Storm warning out from Ports Manfield to just west of San Luis Pass now, and a watch extended to the mouth of the Rio Grande River.

If there were any model runs that suggested hurricane strength, they're gone now. The most optimistic model I see is the LGEM - and that takes max wind speeds to about 53 knots - just over 60 mph. There just isn't enough time for Don to really get its act together and get better organized. At this point, Hurricane Don seems unlikely.

EDIT: Technical reason for slow intensification - dry air to the west, light/moderate shear for the next two days.

Landfall on the coastline of Texas probably early Saturday morning - around midnight or 1 AM.

[toxictwister00]

At the moment, I still believe Don will briefly reach hurricane status (75-85mph) before making landfall. Now that he's moving away from the Yucatan, it appears it's trying to redevelop convective activity near the center again. I guess we'll have to see how it behaves in the environment it's in today. 

EDIT: Also I have a feeling that the forecast cone will shift southward, Don seems to be moving more westerly than northwesterly or west-northwesterly.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-vis.html