Tropical Storm Don

[toxictwister00]

I can pretty much throw in the towel on my forecast prediction of a 75-85mph hurricane (well I did that last night when it was becoming obvious that the dry air and wind shear was not gonna leave this poor critter alone) I'm not even sure if it will get above 55mph before landfall now. I'm estimating landfall to be between Brownsville and Corpus Christi and time wise should be 7-10pm.

That's why I was a little shocked at your prediction of it reaching a hurricane.  There wasn't a great environment for it, and Don never looked healthy to me the entire time.  Furthermore, my first post about it was not just my opinion.  I have a forecaster in the office whose specialty is hurricanes, so he told me right away this storm wouldn't do much.  After he showed me the organization of it, I was very unimpressed.

I was being a little too optimistic, there were times where it looked like it was going to pull through regardless of the wind shear and dry air, but that turned out to not be the case. It looks so pathetic on radar, I feel so sorry for it. It's actually trying to be one of the good guys, but the big, bad, tough wind shear and dry air won't stop riding on his back. 

[twcctornado77]

If I was the SPC, I'd put a Tornado Watch up from Corpus Christi to Brownsville.

[Trevor]

7-10 hours in advance?

[Mr. Rainman]

SPC's already added a slight risk to Southeastern Texas well before their latest convective outlook is due...implies to me they're planning to issue one in the short term.

[twcctornado77]

7-10 hours in advance?

I remember with Georges, the SPC put up a 24 hour Tornado Watch.... better safe than sorry.

[toxictwister00]

7-10 hours in advance?

I remember with Georges, the SPC put up a 24 hour Tornado Watch.... better safe than sorry.

Here's the discussion

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1785
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0313 PM CDT FRI JUL 29 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS COASTAL S TX.
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
   
   VALID 292013Z - 292245Z
   
   TORNADO POTENTIAL...WHILE INITIALLY QUITE MRGL...MAY INCREASE DURING
   REMAINDER AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG PORTIONS TX COAST AS CENTER OF
   TS DON NEARS PROJECTED LANDFALL.
   
   PER NHC FCSTS...CENTER SHOULD CONTINUE TO APCH COAST BETWEEN
   BRO-CRP.  ONCE CENTER GETS TO WITHIN ABOUT 20-30 NM OF
   LANDFALL...LEADING PORTION OF MOST KINEMATICALLY FAVORABLE SECTOR OF
   SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD ONSHORE TO ITS N...INCREASING IN
   COVERAGE WITH TIME AS DON TRANSLATES PROGRESSIVELY FARTHER INLAND.
   GRADUAL ENLARGEMENT OF LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS IS EVIDENT IN CRP
   ALREADY...AND WILE STILL TOO SMALL TO SUPPORT SUSTAINED SUPERCELL
   STRUCTURES...IS EXPECTED TO RAMP UP PACE OF INCREASE IN 0-1 KM AGL
   SHEAR FROM NOW THROUGH POST-LANDFALL PHASE.
   
   MAIN LIMITING FACTORS WILL BE
   1. SPATIAL...GIVEN SMALL RADII OF FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL FLOW/SHEAR IN
   THIS SYSTEM.  THIS WILL GREATLY LIMIT LOW-LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR
   AVAILABLE TO CONVECTION WELL NE OF CENTER--INCLUDING
   OUTFLOW-DOMINANT/MULTICELLULAR ACTIVITY NOW OBSERVED ACROSS
   MID-UPPER TX COASTAL PLAIN.  SHEAR THERE IS NOT EXPECTED TO INCREASE
   GIVEN PATH OF CENTER PASSING ABEAM/AWAY FROM AREA WITH TIME.
   2. MODAL...WITH LACK OF CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IN REGION OF MOST
   FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR NNW THROUGH SE OF CENTER.
   
   AS SUCH...IT IS NOT YET CLEAR THAT THREAT WARRANTS TORNADO WW...BUT
   WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONVECTIVE AND ENVIRONMENTAL WIND TRENDS
   FOR POSSIBLE ISSUANCE LATER TODAY.
   
   REF NHC ADVISORIES FOR LATEST GUIDANCE ON FCST TRACK/INTENSITY OF
   DON.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 07/29/2011

[toxictwister00]

Looks like the dry air literally DEVOURED Don judging by radar, he's starting to make a disappearing act. Poor South Texas, It's bad enough the whole state wasn't going to see rain, but it's worse when it's so dry in your state it virtually destroys a tropical system from bringing drought relief.

I would suspect we will see the last advisory issued on Don, there's no doubt in my mind this thing is a depression or remnant low.

[Mr. Rainman]

Yeah, don't even think the estimated minimum of 2 inches fell in Texas as NHC forecasted. If they want any rain, the storm is gonna have to be a lot stronger.

Weird thing is, the Hurricane Hunters are still picking up wind gusts to 48 mph...which suggests that Don still has his winds going at around 40 sustained. We'll see at the next update.

Here we are, radar estimates show while over 13.5 inches of rain fell in the center of the storm...locally the average rainfall was probably less than an inch. 5 inches of rain was recorded in San Benito, but that's as high as I see it onshore.

[toxictwister00]

I have to give the computer models their props, several of them kept wanting Don to be D.O.A. This must be some kind of record. I never seen a tropical storm fall apart so rapidly before making landfall. I busted big time on this one. Oh well there's always the next one to watch.

[Eric]

Sad for Texas - they really needed the rain, and usually a tropical cyclone is the usual, though rare, relief from such a drought.  It's amazing how quickly the storm just disintegrated as it made landfall.  TWC is showing the satellite now - it all but disappeared!!  They just switched to the radar in the background - there's just nothing left of this storm.

I think Don has, at the absolute most, two advisories left, and that includes an intermediate, though, at the rate this storm's falling apart, the next advisory could easily be its last.

[Mr. Rainman]

Don has been downgraded to a tropical depression, and the NHC will continue to follow it for at least another 12 to possibly 24 hours. Otherwise, Don is a goner. This is a sad day for Texas.

[Donovan]

Now downgraded to a remnant low. This morning starting to see some showers develop off shore and some around the Houston area.... Maybe enought moistrue left today for a few sprinkles, but I doubt that really. Sad for Texas, but the silver lineing is that the cotton crops we're destroyed with rain and wind.

[Mr. Rainman]

The National Hurricane Center, I found out this morning, has an amusing sense of humor. Ladies and gentlemen, I present to you the last tropical discussion on Don, appropriately titled, "The Don is dead."

THE DON IS DEAD. THE CYCLONE LITERALLY EVAPORATED OVER TEXAS ABOUT
AS FAST AS I HAVE EVER SEEN WITHOUT MOUNTAINS INVOLVED. DON HAS NO
CONVECTION...MEAGER RAINFALL...AND ONLY A SLIGHT SIGNATURE IN
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR DATA. THEREFORE...THIS IS THE LAST
ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM. DON SHOULD OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH LATER
TODAY AS IT MOVES TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO POSE
A RAINFALL THREAT.

[twcfan68]

Ha-ha, that's funny but very appropriate. I was surprised, too.

Well, my weatherman also admitted that his prediction was wrong. He too thought Don would make it to a mininal hurricane. Patrick had this one right. You might need to be Knabb's replacement in ten years. 

Also, I learned that if I ever get into weather, I am not going to make a prediction like the one my weatherman made. I'm just going to report the facts.

Don, you were an epic fail to Texas's drought-relief hopes.

[twcctornado77]

Wow... that dry air massacred Don. I thought it would landfall as a 60 MPH TS. It landfell as nothing.