Tropical Storm Debby

[toxictwister00]

Public Advisory

000
WTNT34 KNHC 232051
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DEBBY ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042012
400 PM CDT SAT JUN 23 2012

...TROPICAL STORM DEBBY FORMS IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE LOUISIANA
COAST...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.2N 87.6W
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM SSE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL
RIVER WESTWARD TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA...NOT INCLUDING THE CITY OF
NEW ORLEANS OR LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF LOUISIANA FROM THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER WESTWARD
TO MORGAN CITY...NOT INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS OR LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

[TWCCraig]

I'm surprised the NHC has it going west. While the majority of the reliable models take it to the west, the GFS and many other smaller models have it going east then northeast, some even have it going directly north. But personally, I would have no idea where it would go at this point.

[toxictwister00]

Here's an interesting tidbit for you guys.

DEBBY IS THE EARLIEST 4TH STORM IN THE HISTORICAL RECORDS...
SURPASSING HURRICANE DENNIS OF 2005...WHICH BECAME A TROPICAL STORM
ON JULY 5TH.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/232052.shtml?

[gt1racerlHDl]

Looks like the oil rigs in the western gulf have to be evacuated which = Temporary jump in gas prices next week.

[Mr. Rainman]

Debby is forecast to become an 80 mph at the end of the period.

[toxictwister00]

NHC may have to adjust their landfall track more towards LA now that some of the models seem to be adjusting back east. I can't give the NHC grief on this, it's a tough forecast tracking wise.

EDIT: Up to 60mph, pressure down to 994mb.

[Zach]

It's been raining nonstop since about 5 PM yesterday

At any rate, her rains are not stopping in my area anytime soon

[toxictwister00]

This track doesn't bode well for New Orleans. If you've seen the wall of rain taking up like 80% of FL you know what I mean.

[phw115wvwx]

It'll be a drought buster for the Southeast but in the worst way possible with a prolonged period of terrible flooding.  In regards to Debby's track, it's a huge battle between the European (ECMWF) model and the GFS model.  The ECMWF wants to take it west toward TX and LA, while the GFS has been insisting it will go east toward GA and FL.  I can envision a third possibility where both models are wrong, and Debby just moves slowly northward and stalls out over the Southeast before something finally boots it eastward.

I still believe everyone along the Gulf Coast should be on alert as you'll get huge flooding and surf impacts far away from the center.  NHC summed up the immense difficulty of this forecast perfectly in one sentence from their discussion:

WE MUST BE READY TO MAKE A CHANGE OF THE FORECAST TRACK AT ANY TIME.

[Mr. Rainman]

Well, I will say one thing - I think our hurricane amnesia is finally gone.

[twcfan68]

I'm hoping Debby heads my direction because I don't see it as a storm that will cause much damage but can bring some good soaking rain to the area. I still see trees wilted from the heat of last summer and the drought that affected Texas that also affected Baton Rouge. I hope to see it come my way as a tropical storm.

[Trevor]

I'm afraid that Hurricane Watches/Warnings may have to go up for coastal Louisiana.

Also, the ECMWF is showing the wind shear dying down, allowing for convection to form all of the way around the COC.

[Mr. Rainman]

My thoughts on Debby can be found under the discussion header here:

http://theweathercenter.weebly.com/tropical-storm-debby.html

I am not doing track forecasts this year for tropical systems; I've become more interested in intensity forecasts. The discussion is closely in line with the thoughts of NHC.

[WeatherWitness]

I really hope Debby continues west towards LA and TX because, even though our drought isn't as bad this year, we could still use the rain.  (Yes, I am aware that flooding is definitely not what we need, but I think there are other areas in the US that don't need this at all).  I am just worried about places like Pensacola and Mobile.  They already saw incredible amounts of rainfall about a week ago and now have to deal with this!

NHC adjusted their track futher north and reduced the maximum intensity of Debby earlier this morning.  But it's amazing to see that, even still, the models aren't agreeing.  It seems like more want to take it towards the northeast.

EDIT: Also, um, did TWC screw up with how they made their projected path graphic (see attachment below)?  Judging by what the NHC has, I would say so.  They have Friday in completely the wrong place, and Tuesday is in Monday's spot, which is missing.  (Unless the system will make some type of turn or follow a path that is hard to depict in such a graphic?)

[TWCCraig]

Am I the only one who thinks this is not going west? I mean it's too early to call, but more models are leaning to a more eastern track.