TWC Today Forums
Weather Discussion => Hazardous Weather => Hurricane Central => Topic started by: toxictwister00 on June 23, 2012, 04:53:31 PM
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Public Advisory
000
WTNT34 KNHC 232051
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DEBBY ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042012
400 PM CDT SAT JUN 23 2012
...TROPICAL STORM DEBBY FORMS IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE LOUISIANA
COAST...
SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.2N 87.6W
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM SSE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL
RIVER WESTWARD TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA...NOT INCLUDING THE CITY OF
NEW ORLEANS OR LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF LOUISIANA FROM THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER WESTWARD
TO MORGAN CITY...NOT INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS OR LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
(http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT04/refresh/AL0412W5_NL_sm2+gif/205251W5_NL_sm.gif)
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I'm surprised the NHC has it going west. While the majority of the reliable models take it to the west, the GFS and many other smaller models have it going east then northeast, some even have it going directly north. But personally, I would have no idea where it would go at this point. :dunno:
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Here's an interesting tidbit for you guys.
DEBBY IS THE EARLIEST 4TH STORM IN THE HISTORICAL RECORDS...
SURPASSING HURRICANE DENNIS OF 2005...WHICH BECAME A TROPICAL STORM
ON JULY 5TH.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/232052.shtml? (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/232052.shtml?)
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Looks like the oil rigs in the western gulf have to be evacuated which = Temporary jump in gas prices next week.
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Debby is forecast to become an 80 mph at the end of the period.
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NHC may have to adjust their landfall track more towards LA now that some of the models seem to be adjusting back east. I can't give the NHC grief on this, it's a tough forecast tracking wise.
EDIT: Up to 60mph, pressure down to 994mb.
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It's been raining nonstop since about 5 PM yesterday :wacko:
At any rate, her rains are not stopping in my area anytime soon :no:
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This track doesn't bode well for New Orleans. :no: If you've seen the wall of rain taking up like 80% of FL you know what I mean.
(http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT04/refresh/AL0412W5_NL_sm2+gif/145632W5_NL_sm.gif)
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It'll be a drought buster for the Southeast but in the worst way possible with a prolonged period of terrible flooding. In regards to Debby's track, it's a huge battle between the European (ECMWF) model and the GFS model. The ECMWF wants to take it west toward TX and LA, while the GFS has been insisting it will go east toward GA and FL. I can envision a third possibility where both models are wrong, and Debby just moves slowly northward and stalls out over the Southeast before something finally boots it eastward.
I still believe everyone along the Gulf Coast should be on alert as you'll get huge flooding and surf impacts far away from the center. NHC summed up the immense difficulty of this forecast perfectly in one sentence from their discussion:
WE MUST BE READY TO MAKE A CHANGE OF THE FORECAST TRACK AT ANY TIME.
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Well, I will say one thing - I think our hurricane amnesia is finally gone.
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I'm hoping Debby heads my direction because I don't see it as a storm that will cause much damage but can bring some good soaking rain to the area. I still see trees wilted from the heat of last summer and the drought that affected Texas that also affected Baton Rouge. I hope to see it come my way as a tropical storm.
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I'm afraid that Hurricane Watches/Warnings may have to go up for coastal Louisiana.
Also, the ECMWF is showing the wind shear dying down, allowing for convection to form all of the way around the COC.
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My thoughts on Debby can be found under the discussion header here:
http://theweathercenter.weebly.com/tropical-storm-debby.html (http://theweathercenter.weebly.com/tropical-storm-debby.html)
I am not doing track forecasts this year for tropical systems; I've become more interested in intensity forecasts. The discussion is closely in line with the thoughts of NHC.
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I really hope Debby continues west towards LA and TX because, even though our drought isn't as bad this year, we could still use the rain. (Yes, I am aware that flooding is definitely not what we need, but I think there are other areas in the US that don't need this at all). I am just worried about places like Pensacola and Mobile. They already saw incredible amounts of rainfall about a week ago and now have to deal with this! :blink:
NHC adjusted their track futher north and reduced the maximum intensity of Debby earlier this morning. But it's amazing to see that, even still, the models aren't agreeing. It seems like more want to take it towards the northeast. :thinking:
EDIT: Also, um, did TWC screw up with how they made their projected path graphic (see attachment below)? Judging by what the NHC has, I would say so. They have Friday in completely the wrong place, and Tuesday is in Monday's spot, which is missing. (Unless the system will make some type of turn or follow a path that is hard to depict in such a graphic?)
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Am I the only one who thinks this is not going west? :dunno: I mean it's too early to call, but more models are leaning to a more eastern track.
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It might just sit and spin along the GC missing the trough and the ridge unfortunately. It should come my way, we still need the rain.
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NHC has halted its westerly track altogether and has Debby continuing north. Debby is no longer expected to become a hurricane. The warnings in Louisiana have been discontinued.
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Debby gave me (here in Thonotosassa) a tornado warning!! :o
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I can envision a third possibility where both models are wrong, and Debby just moves slowly northward and stalls out over the Southeast before something finally boots it eastward.
Apparently, NHC now agrees with what I envisioned a few hours ago in my last post quoted above! :o Have a look at the 5 PM EDT advisory track on NHC's website.
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Darn. They don't need any more rain around the Mobile-Pensacola region like Louisiana does. I somehow knew it was going to miss my area. Good call, Patrick!
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I'm still surprised at NHC's track. I'd estimate that at least 80% of the models have this storm going northeast over North-Central Florida. While the other 20% have it going the other way and they may be part of the more accurate models (ECMWF, which has actually been wrong with Debby), one model, the GFS, has been doing extremely well with Debby. A directly north track is not out of the question though like what Patrick said.
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I'm still surprised at NHC's track. I'd estimate that at least 80% of the models have this storm going northeast over North-Central Florida. While the other 20% have it going the other way and they may be part of the more accurate models (ECMWF, which has actually been wrong with Debby), one model, the GFS, has been doing extremely well with Debby.
The reason is because the ECMWF has been the better model over the GFS by a wide margin during the past months. It certainly weighs on you as a forecaster when you have that information. I'm worried neither will be right and may follow the new track displayed now. It's a really challenging forecast, and we're all struggling in trying to figure out where Debby will go.
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Though it's still too early to tell, I struggle to see any western track with the system anymore. I see several possibilities, and it's still questionable. :thinking: Will this thing travel north and make landfall somewhere at the Florida panhandle then continue traveling north, will it travel north then turn to the northeast, or will it continue moving northeast, and off to the Atlantic Ocean?
I feel so sorry for those residents in the Florida panhandle and southern Alabama. I am sure they were watching and hoping that this system would not move their way because they are already saturated with rainfall, and that's exactly what it's doing. I am also surprised by how SLOW they expect this system to move!! :o
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The ECMWF is soooooo overrated. :P j/k or am I?.... :fear:
Seriously though, I agree 100% with NHC's current track. I've been thinking that since this morning. Plus I've been hoping against hope we get some heavy rain from it to wipe away this God forsaken drought. :innocent: :innocent:
EDIT: I feel awfully bad about this, but I kinda want the 12z Euro today to be right, Debby sits right over my backyard Wed/Thu and it kills any chance of us hitting the century mark by week's end next week that's always a plus. :happy:
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I'm still surprised at NHC's track. I'd estimate that at least 80% of the models have this storm going northeast over North-Central Florida. While the other 20% have it going the other way and they may be part of the more accurate models (ECMWF, which has actually been wrong with Debby), one model, the GFS, has been doing extremely well with Debby.
The reason is because the ECMWF has been the better model over the GFS by a wide margin during the past months. It certainly weighs on you as a forecaster when you have that information. I'm worried neither will be right and may follow the new track displayed now. It's a really challenging forecast, and we're all struggling in trying to figure out where Debby will go.
True. Though the GFS did well with Beryl as well compared to the ECMWF. My opinion is this, and hope this isn't arguemental, you shouldn't rely on a model just because it's been the most accurate, because that doesn't mean the model will never be wrong. I think the NHC discouraged the other models when making this forecast, and I understand that it was a hard forecast to make considering that the models were 50/50 on it's track. The GFS is the 2nd most accurate model behind the ECMWF. I guess I'm being a little biased here, after all I'm a GFS fanboy :P
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I'm still surprised at NHC's track. I'd estimate that at least 80% of the models have this storm going northeast over North-Central Florida. While the other 20% have it going the other way and they may be part of the more accurate models (ECMWF, which has actually been wrong with Debby), one model, the GFS, has been doing extremely well with Debby.
The reason is because the ECMWF has been the better model over the GFS by a wide margin during the past months. It certainly weighs on you as a forecaster when you have that information. I'm worried neither will be right and may follow the new track displayed now. It's a really challenging forecast, and we're all struggling in trying to figure out where Debby will go.
True. Though the GFS did well with Beryl as well compared to the ECMWF. My opinion is this, and hope this isn't arguemental, you shouldn't rely on a model just because it's been the most accurate, because that doesn't mean the model will never be wrong. I think the NHC discouraged the other models when making this forecast, and I understand that it was a hard forecast to make considering that the models were 50/50 on it's track. The GFS is the 2nd most accurate model behind the ECMWF. I guess I'm being a little biased here, after all I'm a GFS fanboy :P
NHC didn't discourage the other ones because they weren't as accurate as the ECMWF. They discounted the other models initially because the scenario that the others played out seemed likely at the time - a ridge building over the central and eastern United States forcing a turn to the west.
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True. Though the GFS did well with Beryl as well compared to the ECMWF. My opinion is this, and hope this isn't arguemental, you shouldn't rely on a model just because it's been the most accurate, because that doesn't mean the model will never be wrong. I think the NHC discouraged the other models when making this forecast, and I understand that it was a hard forecast to make considering that the models were 50/50 on it's track. The GFS is the 2nd most accurate model behind the ECMWF. I guess I'm being a little biased here, after all I'm a GFS fanboy :P
Don't worry, Craig. I enjoy the discussion as it helps you appreciate the complexity of forecasting. :thumbsup: The reason I came up with my solution is because the operational models were designed for the mid-latitudes more than the tropics. Anytime I see a sharp contrast between the ECMWF and the GFS, I consider the untouched middle ground. The NAM is currently showing my solution. While it may be inferior on average to the other models, it can outperform them in tropical weather and severe weather.
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An absolutely tremendous wind gust moved through Temple Terrace a few minutes ago. It might have been a small tornado, too. :o
EDIT: There are now reports that there was a tornado near the USF/Temple Terrace area.
http://twitter.com/# (http://twitter.com/#)!/abcactionnews
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I honestly can't remember the last time I've seen so much severe weather reports in a single state just from a tropical storm. It's been pretty crazy in the Sunshine State today.
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I honestly can't remember the last time I've seen so much severe weather reports in a single state just from a tropical storm. It's been pretty crazy in the Sunshine State today.
Hey could you get a microburst from a hurricane? I was wondering if a microburst could be the blame because we had a similiar thing happen when Irene struck.
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I'm not 100% sure, but yes I believe so.
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I honestly can't remember the last time I've seen so much severe weather reports in a single state just from a tropical storm. It's been pretty crazy in the Sunshine State today.
Hey could you get a microburst from a hurricane? I was wondering if a microburst could be the blame because we had a similiar thing happen when Irene struck.
It can. During Irene, there was a 91mph wind gust in a macroburst here on LI.
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An absolutely tremendous wind gust moved through Temple Terrace a few minutes ago. It might have been a small tornado, too. :o
EDIT: There are now reports that there was a tornado near the USF/Temple Terrace area.
[url]http://twitter.com/#[/url] ([url]http://twitter.com/#[/url])!/abcactionnews
There was a tornado warning out for Temple Terrace by Lettuce Lake Park, and the cone extended out to my area. Hopefully you were alright.
There are also several Tampa Electric Company customers without power at this hour, too.
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An absolutely tremendous wind gust moved through Temple Terrace a few minutes ago. It might have been a small tornado, too. :o
EDIT: There are now reports that there was a tornado near the USF/Temple Terrace area.
[url]http://twitter.com/#[/url] ([url]http://twitter.com/#[/url])!/abcactionnews
There was a tornado warning out for Temple Terrace by Lettuce Lake Park, and the cone extended out to my area. Hopefully you were alright.
There are also several Tampa Electric Company customers without power at this hour, too.
I am fine, thanks. :yes:
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Debby is stationary as of 11 PM EDT.
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The new forecast track has Debby stalled or moving northward at less than 3 knots for the next 24-36 hours. I wouldn't be surprised to see some isolated rain totals of 30 inches or greater in some areas.
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Even Daytona Beach is getting pounded by heavy rain. The parking lot outside is flooded. We're under a tornado watch, and tornado warnings were springing up all over the place earlier tonight. (Things seem to be quieting down a little bit now, though, though the rain is still coming down in buckets.)
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A stationary Debby is definitely NOT what some cities in the southeast need right now. Good gosh, the NHC doesn't have it making "landfall" until Thursday evening! :blink: I just hope Pensacola doesn't get washed away! It was one of the target cities for all the rainfall a couple of weeks ago and now has to deal with this.
Also, Eric, does Daytona Beach have enough rainfall to last you guys through the next couple of years? :P You all got to experience both Beryl and Debby!
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A stationary Debby is definitely NOT what some cities in the southeast need right now. Good gosh, the NHC doesn't have it making "landfall" until Thursday evening! :blink: I just hope Pensacola doesn't get washed away! It was one of the target cities for all the rainfall a couple of weeks ago and now has to deal with this.
Also, Eric, does Daytona Beach have enough rainfall to last you guys through the next couple of years? :P You all got to experience both Beryl and Debby!
Yeah, this storm just doesn't want to budge. I love how the forecast cone turned into a forecast "blob," as someone on TWC mentioned earlier this evening.
We had such a severe drought this winter, so rain is welcome. However, two tropical storms in a month is a little much. We don't need THIS much rain in such a short period of time!!
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Ugh, got awakened by my weather radio earlier for Tornado Watch #424 which is an extension of #423 (and 423 extended watch #422), but now includes some coastal waters .. :hmm:
SEL4
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 424
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
440 AM EDT MON JUN 25 2012
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA
COASTAL WATERS
EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 440 AM UNTIL 200
PM EDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 0.5 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES NORTH OF CROSS CITY
FLORIDA TO 30 MILES SOUTH OF AVON PARK FLORIDA. FOR A COMPLETE
DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS TORNADO WATCH REPLACES TORNADO
WATCH NUMBER 423. WATCH NUMBER 423 WILL NOT BE IN EFFECT AFTER
440 AM EDT.
DISCUSSION...WHILE OVERALL TORNADO POTENTIAL HAS MARGINALLY SUBSIDED
ACROSS FL EARLY TODAY WITH THE LACK OF MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION...STRONG DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELDS AND INTENSE LOW LEVEL
SHEAR WITHIN THE LARGER CIRCULATION OF T.S. DEBBY WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT UPDRAFT ROTATION AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MINI-SUPERCELL
FORMATION. A PERSISTENT TROPICAL RAIN BAND FROM TAMPA BAY AREA NEWD
ACROSS THE PENINSULA IS ONE AREA WHERE THESE BRIEF SPIN UPS MAY
OCCUR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. LACK OF CONVECTION THROUGH
EARLY IN THE DAYLIGHT HOURS COULD ACTUALLY RESULT IN AN INCREASING
TORNADO THREAT AS VERY MOIST AIRMASS DESTABILIZES FURTHER AND
RESULTS IN MORE ROBUST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AMIDST PERSISTENTLY
STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE SLOW-MOVING TROPICAL
STORM.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 0.5 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 21035.
...CARBIN
(http://i.imgur.com/Kagal.gif)
Also, a Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect for waters from to Englewood to Tarpon Springs out 20-60 knots and waters from Tarpon Springs to the Suwannee River out 20-60 knots.
TROPICAL STORM DEBBY LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
346 AM EDT MON JUN 25 2012
...DEBBY EXPECTED TO MOVE VERY LITTLE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...
.NEW INFORMATION...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND
RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR PEOPLE AND MARINE INTERESTS IN SELECT
LOCATIONS AND COASTAL WATER LEGS OF FLORIDA WEST WEST COAST AND
THE GULF OF MEXICO.
.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
FOR MARINE INTERESTS...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING CONTINUES FOR
PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN GULF COASTAL WATERS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...
LEVY...CITRUS...HERNANDO...PASCO...PINELLAS...HILLSBOROUGH...
MANATEE AND SARASOTA.
FOR MARINE INTERESTS...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH CONTINUES FOR
PORTIONS OF FLORIDA WEST COAST AND THE GULF OF MEXICO.
A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA. PLEASE LISTEN CLOSELY FOR ANY FLOOD WARNINGS THAT MIGHT
BE IN EFFECT FOR YOUR AREA.
A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF FLORIDA WEST WEST
COAST AND THE GULF OF MEXICO. PLEASE LISTEN CLOSELY FOR ANY
TORNADO WARNINGS THAT MIGHT BE IN EFFECT FOR YOUR AREA.
PLEASE CHECK THE LATEST PUBLIC AND MARINE FORECASTS FOR DETAILED
INFORMATION ABOUT ADDITIONAL HAZARDS.
.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 3 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEBBY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 28.6N...LONGITUDE 85.8W. THIS WAS ABOUT 170 MILES
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF CEDAR KEY FL...OR ABOUT 200 MILES
WEST-NORTHWEST OF MOUTH OF TAMPA BAY FL. STORM MOTION WAS
STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE. STORM INTENSITY WAS 60 MPH.
.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
WHEN MAKING DECISIONS...DO NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK.
THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM TROPICAL STORM DEBBY AT THIS TIME ARE
INLAND FLOODING AND THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES. MINOR TO
MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING IS ALSO LIKELY DURING TIMES OF HIGH
TIDES. TROPICAL STORM DEBBY IS FORECAST TO MOVE VERY LITTLE OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS...RESULTING IN A PROLONGED SIGNIFICANT FLOOD
EVENT.
.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REGARDING ANY COASTAL WATERS UNDER A WARNING...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
REMAIN IN PORT AND WELL SECURED.
REGARDING ANY COASTAL WATERS UNDER A WATCH...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
RETURN TO PORT OR SEEK SAFE HARBOR. DETERMINE THE BEST STRATEGY
FOR SECURING YOUR CRAFT.
CLOSELY MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL NEWS OUTLETS
FOR OFFICIAL STORM INFORMATION. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST.
&&
.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN TAMPA BAY RUSKIN AROUND 6 AM EDT...OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.
GMZ850-853-870-873-251500-
/O.CON.KTBW.TR.W.1004.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM-
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-
TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
346 AM EDT MON JUN 25 2012
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...
...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT UNTIL WARNINGS ARE DISCONTINUED
AND WINDS AND SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED.
&&
...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS...
THE CHANCE FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS VERY SMALL.
ALSO...THE CHANCE FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS
UP TO 100 PERCENT. THIS REPRESENTS A GENERAL STEADY TREND SINCE
THE LAST FORECAST.
...WINDS AND SEAS...
THE LATEST AREA FORECAST IS FOR MAXIMUM WINDS OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS TO 55 KNOTS. SEAS HAVE BEEN RUNNING BETWEEN 14 AND 18
FEET AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
...TORNADOES AND WATERSPOUTS...
A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA. SEE LATEST
FORECAST FOR LATEST INFORMATION. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE TORNADO
WARNINGS FOR YOUR LOCATION...AND BE READY TO ACT QUICKLY IF A
TORNADO APPROACHES.
$$
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At this point, the storm could go virtually anywhere. The system is stalled, and the models are still in disagreement after all of this. I hope for the best for everyone in the south who might be in the path of this storm.
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Here in Fort Myers, we had a lightning show during a severe thunderstorm last night and today watching the clouds and the rainy, breezy weather.
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It looks like northern FL will be the target according to NHC, but the flow aloft is so pathetic that it'll take a few days to get there. Furthermore, Debby has weakened considerably as it still cannot fight off the westerly wind shear. It's also moving away from deeper warmer waters toward the cooler waters on the continental shelf. I think we're just going to have a huge rain event for the Southeast with a continued threat for severe weather.
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It looks like the GFS was the most accurate in predicting the future of Debby. As the latest NHC path shows, Debby will continue travelling northeast (very slowly) for a couple of days then turn due east and go out to the Atlantic Ocean. Heck, some of the rain bands are already out over the Atlantic. So, as Patrick said, I guess northern Florida will now be the focus point for the next few days. I think more and more of the models are in agreeance now. Depending on the jetstream, is there still a possibility Debby could remain on land and bring rain to the northeast? :dunno:
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Uh oh! Latest GFS run takes this sucker up the east coast! And more models are predicting a somewhat similar path! :dance:
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Debby is expected to continue eastward over Florida and then re intensify over the Atlantic. Interestingly, they expect the storm to stall once again once it is in the SW Atlantic.
LARGE-SCALE MODELS SHOW DEBBY
CONTINUING ON AN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD COURSE OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS IN RESPONSE TO AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH OFFSHORE OF
THE U.S. EAST COAST. AS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT
OUT IN 2-3 DAYS...DEBBY IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AND BE LEFT BEHIND
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT
OVERALL ON AN EASTWARD TRACK...ALTHOUGH SIGNIFICANT SPEED
DIFFERENCES REMAIN. THE GFS IS CONSIDERABLY SLOWER THAN THE MODEL
CONSENSUS...AND SHOWS DEBBY TAKING FIVE DAYS TO MOVE OFFSHORE THE
FLORIDA ATLANTIC COAST. INTERESTINGLY...THE ECMWF IS NOW ONE OF THE
FASTEST MODELS TO THE EAST. THE NHC OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS NOT
AS FAST AS THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS IN DEFERENCE TO CONTINUITY AND
THE GFS.
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Debby has weakened to a tropical depression after making landfall over FL. It will cross the peninsula over the next 24 hours before emerging over the Atlantic. All the models are taking Debby further out to sea, but it could regain tropical storm intensity over the Gulf Stream before turning extratropical.
Update: Forget about Debby regaining tropical storm intensity. NHC has declared it extratropical already, so the last advisory was issued on it.