Hurricane Katia

[Mr. Rainman]

New tropical depression formed this morning. Track and wind probabilities to follow shortly.

Track


Wind Probabilities

[gt1racerlHDl]

We could already call this TS Katia, by the looks of the track she should suck up all of the remaining water Irene never touched.

Models Attached

[toxictwister00]

0z Canadian is interesting, might be the only global model hinting at another SE coast threat... (Look at Hour 240)

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ggem/00zggem500mbHGHTNAGGEMLoop.html

[WeatherWitness]

Well, although it's got a ways ago, it's looking good so far that future Katia will not become another Katrina. This looks like another year, though, with quite a bit of fish storms.

[toxictwister00]

0z Canadian is interesting, might be the only global model hinting at another SE coast threat... (Look at Hour 240)

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ggem/00zggem500mbHGHTNAGGEMLoop.html

12z Euro jumping on board with the Canadian also...

[toxictwister00]

Our 11th named storm of the season is born!

Notice by early Sunday morning, Katia is already a Major Hurricane, She's certainly not playin' around either.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT12/refresh/AL1211W5_NL_sm2+gif/084114W5_NL_sm.gif

Btw, how is "Katia" pronounced? I've been pronouncing it as Ka-tee-ya.

0z Canadian is a CLOSE call for NYC, hits NE as it curves NW into Canada.
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ggem/00zggem500mbHGHTNAGGEMLoop.html

0z European looks to be a close call for the NE region too...
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/00zeuro500mbHGHTNA_loop.html

[Mr. Rainman]

Also of note: Katia is the 7th named storm to form in August. Looking back at records, there are very few seasons - if any - that produced that many storms in August.

[Eric]

Btw, how is "Katia" pronounced? I've been pronouncing it as Ka-tee-ya.

It's a Russian name (Катя), and the pronunciation is a little tricky for English speakers.  KAT-ya, with "ya" pronounced as one sound, not a diphthong.

[Eric]

Also of note: Katia is the 7th named storm to form in August. Looking back at records, there are very few seasons - if any - that produced that many storms in August.

Looking back through the records, the venerable 2005 season (which uses the same list of names as this year) produced 5 named storms in August.  The very busy 1995 season, however, also produced 7 named storms like this year.

[WeatherWitness]

Btw, how is "Katia" pronounced? I've been pronouncing it as Ka-tee-ya.

It's a Russian name (Катя), and the pronunciation is a little tricky for English speakers.  KAT-ya, with "ya" pronounced as one sound, not a diphthong.

Thanks for the clarification. At least this way, it doesn't sound too much like "Katrina."

[Eric]

They're all variations on the same name. 

[Mr. Rainman]

I'm waiting on the new advisory in about half and hour, but looking at visible satellite, Katia has improved rather dramatically in organization over the last 6 hours. My estimated wind speed guess stands at around 50-55 mph. 60 mph may not be completely out of the question, though.

[gt1racerlHDl]

5:00 PM AST Tue Aug 30
Location: 12.7°N 35.4°W
Max sustained: 60 mph
Moving: WNW at 20 mph
Min pressure: 997 mb

[phw115wvwx]

There's an official pronunciation guide on NHC's website for all Atlantic storm names in our current six-year cycle.  It's buried on their site as a PDF, so I'm linking it directly here for everyone:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/aboutnames_pronounce_atlc.pdf

It's looking really good for this storm to become our second hurricane of the Atlantic season, and it could become our second major hurricane as well.  Fortunately, we have a lot of time to watch and see if it will threaten us.

[toxictwister00]

There's an official pronunciation guide on NHC's website for all Atlantic storm names in our current six-year cycle.  It's buried on their site as a PDF, so I'm linking it directly here for everyone:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/aboutnames_pronounce_atlc.pdf

It's looking really good for this storm to become our second hurricane of the Atlantic season, and it could become our second major hurricane as well.  Fortunately, we have a lot of time to watch and see if it will threaten us.

Thanks, interestingly enough out of all the names from 2011-2016 listed there, only Katia was the one I had trouble with.

Wouldn't be surprised if Katia is a hurricane by as early the 8 or 11am advisory tomorrow.