TWC Today Forums
Weather Discussion => Hazardous Weather => Hurricane Central => Topic started by: Mr. Rainman on August 29, 2011, 08:07:17 AM
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New tropical depression formed this morning. Track and wind probabilities to follow shortly.
Track
(http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT12/refresh/AL1211W5_NL_sm2+gif/084125W5_NL_sm.gif)
Wind Probabilities
(http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT12/refresh/AL1211T_sm2+gif/084125P_sm.gif)
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We could already call this TS Katia, by the looks of the track she should suck up all of the remaining water Irene never touched.
Models Attached
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0z Canadian is interesting, might be the only global model hinting at another SE coast threat... (Look at Hour 240)
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ggem/00zggem500mbHGHTNAGGEMLoop.html (http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ggem/00zggem500mbHGHTNAGGEMLoop.html)
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Well, although it's got a ways ago, it's looking good so far that future Katia will not become another Katrina. This looks like another year, though, with quite a bit of fish storms.
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0z Canadian is interesting, might be the only global model hinting at another SE coast threat... (Look at Hour 240)
[url]http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ggem/00zggem500mbHGHTNAGGEMLoop.html[/url] ([url]http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ggem/00zggem500mbHGHTNAGGEMLoop.html[/url])
12z Euro jumping on board with the Canadian also...
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Our 11th named storm of the season is born!
Notice by early Sunday morning, Katia is already a Major Hurricane, She's certainly not playin' around either.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT12/refresh/AL1211W5_NL_sm2+gif/084114W5_NL_sm.gif (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT12/refresh/AL1211W5_NL_sm2+gif/084114W5_NL_sm.gif)
Btw, how is "Katia" pronounced? I've been pronouncing it as Ka-tee-ya.
0z Canadian is a CLOSE call for NYC, hits NE as it curves NW into Canada.
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ggem/00zggem500mbHGHTNAGGEMLoop.html (http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ggem/00zggem500mbHGHTNAGGEMLoop.html)
0z European looks to be a close call for the NE region too...
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/00zeuro500mbHGHTNA_loop.html (http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/00zeuro500mbHGHTNA_loop.html)
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Also of note: Katia is the 7th named storm to form in August. Looking back at records, there are very few seasons - if any - that produced that many storms in August.
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Btw, how is "Katia" pronounced? I've been pronouncing it as Ka-tee-ya.
It's a Russian name (Катя), and the pronunciation is a little tricky for English speakers. KAT-ya, with "ya" pronounced as one sound, not a diphthong.
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Also of note: Katia is the 7th named storm to form in August. Looking back at records, there are very few seasons - if any - that produced that many storms in August.
Looking back through the records, the venerable 2005 season (which uses the same list of names as this year) produced 5 named storms in August. The very busy 1995 season, however, also produced 7 named storms like this year.
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Btw, how is "Katia" pronounced? I've been pronouncing it as Ka-tee-ya.
It's a Russian name (Катя), and the pronunciation is a little tricky for English speakers. KAT-ya, with "ya" pronounced as one sound, not a diphthong.
Thanks for the clarification. At least this way, it doesn't sound too much like "Katrina." ;)
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They're all variations on the same name. :)
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I'm waiting on the new advisory in about half and hour, but looking at visible satellite, Katia has improved rather dramatically in organization over the last 6 hours. My estimated wind speed guess stands at around 50-55 mph. 60 mph may not be completely out of the question, though.
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5:00 PM AST Tue Aug 30
Location: 12.7°N 35.4°W
Max sustained: 60 mph
Moving: WNW at 20 mph
Min pressure: 997 mb
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There's an official pronunciation guide on NHC's website for all Atlantic storm names in our current six-year cycle. It's buried on their site as a PDF, so I'm linking it directly here for everyone:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/aboutnames_pronounce_atlc.pdf (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/aboutnames_pronounce_atlc.pdf)
It's looking really good for this storm to become our second hurricane of the Atlantic season, and it could become our second major hurricane as well. Fortunately, we have a lot of time to watch and see if it will threaten us.
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There's an official pronunciation guide on NHC's website for all Atlantic storm names in our current six-year cycle. It's buried on their site as a PDF, so I'm linking it directly here for everyone:
[url]http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/aboutnames_pronounce_atlc.pdf[/url] ([url]http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/aboutnames_pronounce_atlc.pdf[/url])
It's looking really good for this storm to become our second hurricane of the Atlantic season, and it could become our second major hurricane as well. Fortunately, we have a lot of time to watch and see if it will threaten us.
Thanks, interestingly enough out of all the names from 2011-2016 listed there, only Katia was the one I had trouble with.
Wouldn't be surprised if Katia is a hurricane by as early the 8 or 11am advisory tomorrow.
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11:00 PM AST Tue Aug 30
Location: 13.3°N 37.5°W
Max sustained: 60 mph
Moving: WNW at 22 mph
Min pressure: 997 mb
New tracks are out.
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5:00 PM AST Wed Aug 31
Location: 14.6°N 42.6°W
Max sustained: 70 mph
Moving: WNW at 20 mph
Min pressure: 990 mb
My projected path below
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Tropical Storm Katia is almost a hurricane now, but the forecast track makes me think that it will curve northward in between the United States and Bermuda. We will see if my hunch holds up by next week.
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The track forecast of Katia isn't surprising me. Storms that form far out have a tendency to curve off. :<
She'll probably strengthen quite a bit, but I see no real threat atm.
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11:00 PM AST Wed Aug 31
Location: 15.0°N 44.4°W
Max sustained: 75 mph
Moving: WNW at 20 mph
Min pressure: 987 mb
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Something of interest to me, the track bend slightly west or WNW again by Monday, delaying the N turn. Gonna be a close call for Bermuda.
(http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT12/refresh/AL1211W5_NL_sm2+gif/024712W5_NL_sm.gif)
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The track forecast of Katia isn't surprising me. Storms that form far out have a tendency to curve off. :<
She'll probably strengthen quite a bit, but I see no real threat atm.
Yeah, what's the deal with the storms curving to the north again? I'm not really an expert, but I thought this wasn't supposed to happen as much this year because of shifts in weather patterns. :dunno:
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There have been a ton of upper-level troughs off the East Coast this entire year, and it's been a constant pattern. I had mentioned about it to you all back in June. It just shows there are far more things at work than just El Niño and La Niña in our atmosphere.
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Hmm, from the looks of it, projected paths don't have Katia making a major northward turn through Tuesday yet. I wonder how close to the east coast it's going to come. :blink:
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5:00 PM AST Thu Sep 1
Location: 16.1°N 49.2°W
Max sustained: 70 mph
Moving: W at 18 mph
Min pressure: 990 mb
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The shear has really begun to play against Katia over the last few hours, but that shear should begin to weaken by 12 hours out and allow her to reform into a hurricane. The tracks vary quite a bit, since models disagree about whether the subtropical ridge will rebuild or not. The fact that some models are going more westerly than northwesterly at the end of the period should be raising a few red flags, though.
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GFS as of 8pm AST
"pointing towards the US"
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11:00 PM AST Thu Sep 1
Location: 16.7°N 50.6°W
Max sustained: 70 mph
Moving: WNW at 16 mph
Min pressure: 990 mb
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11:00 PM AST Thu Sep 1
Location: 16.7°N 50.6°W
Max sustained: 70 mph
Moving: WNW at 16 mph
Min pressure: 990 mb
What's the point? :huh:
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Preliminary track, it's further west than I was thinking yesterday.
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Preliminary track, it's further west than I was thinking yesterday.
This track looks at lot like Hurricane Earl's from last year. IIRC, Earl didn't affect the East Coast too greatly, so hopefully Katia will miss the U.S. as the Northeast certainly does not need any more rain at the moment.
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Preliminary track, it's further west than I was thinking yesterday.
This track looks at lot like Hurricane Earl's from last year. IIRC, Earl didn't affect the East Coast too greatly, so hopefully Katia will miss the U.S. as the Northeast certainly does not need any more rain at the moment.
It is mostly based off of that track.
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Katia has regained hurricane status with 75 mph sustained winds. Unfortunately, the forecast track keeps getting shifted westward. Anyone in the Northeast should be monitoring the progress of Katia as it's expected to intensify over the next three days once it can fight off the wind shear.
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For some reason, I have a bad feeling about this one.
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Wow, thep projected paths for Katia still aren't showing the curve northward, and the forecast has it getting closer and closer to the U.S. with a possible landfall that Savannah is overdue for! :o Maybe Katia will begin making an unexpected turn to the north sooner than what is being forecasted or make a last minute turn, but we definetely will now need to watch this one closely. :yes:
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The 240-hour map has Lee in the eastern Gulf and Katia east of Florida.
Could Katia have an impact on where Lee goes if Lee doesn't get the lead out? Usually the bigger storm wins out.
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Updated models
http://icons-ecast.wunderground.com/data/images/at201112_model.gif (http://icons-ecast.wunderground.com/data/images/at201112_model.gif)
https://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_12.gif (https://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_12.gif)
http://flhurricane.com/images/2011/clark12latest.png (http://flhurricane.com/images/2011/clark12latest.png)
http://icons-ecast.wunderground.com/data/images/at201112_ensmodel.gif (http://icons-ecast.wunderground.com/data/images/at201112_ensmodel.gif)
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WOW. :blink: Talk about a Rapid Intensification episode. Katia just went from a 75 mph Category 1 hurricane to a Category 2 with winds of 100 mph. NHC is forecasting a major hurricane by tomorrow.
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WOW. :blink: Talk about a Rapid Intensification episode. Katia just went from a 75 mph Category 1 hurricane to a Category 2 with winds of 100 mph. NHC is forecasting a major hurricane by tomorrow.
A buoy reported a wind gust of 90mph on the NE side not long after the 8am advisory. :o If Katia had of been close enough for them to fly into and investigate, she probably would have been upgraded to a Cat. 2 during the 8am advisory instead.
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Water Temps for Katia (Attached)
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Eye has popped out, looks rather large.
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if you compare her to Earl, she is really alike compared to him.
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I'm starting to get a tiny bit iffy on landfall potential with Katia. Looking at the 12Z model guidance run, it's looking like most models turn her north and eventually northeast well offshore of the United States.
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Double post, my apologies.
Winds have increased again to 105 mph. Pressure down to 965 mb.
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Day 5 cone pointing directly at Southern New England
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New England looks to just get some big waves and see some rip currents from Katia. She's gonna turn well away from the region, looking at models.
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I know annular hurricanes are rare, but doesn't it look like Katia could be one? She kinda seems to be getting that buzz saw look to her.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-vis.html (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-vis.html)
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CMC still takes Irene closer to the coast but most are now way OTS.
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Katia has now become the strongest hurricane of the season, with winds of 135 mph.
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Katia has now become the strongest hurricane of the season, with winds of 135 mph.
Would be nice to see on my Intellistar's Radar/Satellite by the time Thursday/Friday comes around.
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It looks like Katia won't be a direct threat to the U.S. Maybe some outer rain bands will reach the coasts, but rip currents look to be the biggest threat. Also, notice the rapid de-intensification (word?) Katia will be going through from Thurs AM to Fri AM.
TWC has got their Wednesday and Thursday mixed up on their projected path map, too. Guess nobody proofreads these. :wacko:
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Hurricane Katia is on its way out to sea, but it could bring some interesting weather all the way in Northern Ireland by Monday based on NHC's forecast.
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Capture Of Katia near the Mid-Atlantic and New England
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pH1aJ7oXQsA#ws (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pH1aJ7oXQsA#ws)