Hurricane Ernesto

[phw115wvwx]

Ernesto's biggest problem is its forward speed.  It's going way too fast, which has caused its low-level center to outrun its mid-level center.  This sheared profile is not good at all for a tropical storm.  Everything needs to be upright instead.  If Ernesto slows down and reaches the much warmer water in the western Caribbean, then we may have a chance to see real intensification.  For now, we have to see whether it will hold itself together.

[toxictwister00]

It seems like it's been that same old song and dance with almost EVERY tropical cyclone since the 2009 Hurricane Season and it's getting old very fast.

EDIT: On a side note, Ernesto is starting to look better tonight and is slowing down (18mph instead of 22mph 6 hours ago) eventhough it hasn't strengthened I'm beginning to think a Gulf threat is increasing regardless of what the GFS/ECMWF/Suddenly the CMC have been saying.

[toxictwister00]

Ernesto has continued to organize and strengthen overnight with winds of 60mph. The National Hurricane Center is forecasting a Hurricane by tomorrow morning.

[toxictwister00]

As of 2pm ET, Ernesto is still holding steady as a 50mph tropical storm with a pressure of 1004mb

From the link below, looking at the water vapor, notice how Ernesto has been able to ventilate (create it's own healthy environment) and virtually push the dry air that's in it's path out of it's way. That's probably one reason why the dry air hasn't disrupted it's circulation entirely.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-wv.html

[Mr. Rainman]

Ernesto has suddenly become much more interesting forecast wise. As Tavores noted, Ernesto has been successfully ventilating - in fact, NHC noted this in their latest discussion, as this kind of organization is not very common for tropical systems in the Carribean.

GFS and European continue to want to weaken the system, but I have to agree with NHC in saying that I don't see anything getting in the way of Ernesto becoming a hurricane within the next day or so - shear is light and ocean temperatures are way up there.

Winds are 60 mph as of the 5 PM advisory. Latest forecast track is an extension of the previous and agrees with the model consensus.

[toxictwister00]

Ernesto has suddenly become much more interesting forecast wise. As Tavores noted, Ernesto has been successfully ventilating - in fact, NHC noted this in their latest discussion, as this kind of organization is not very common for tropical systems in the Carribean.

GFS and European continue to want to weaken the system, but I have to agree with NHC in saying that I don't see anything getting in the way of Ernesto becoming a hurricane within the next day or so - shear is light and ocean temperatures are way up there.

Winds are 60 mph as of the 5 PM advisory. Latest forecast track is an extension of the previous and agrees with the model consensus.

I've seen a large swath of SSTs as high as 30c across the western Caribbean into the Central Gulf, that's toasty. There are probably some isolated areas higher than that.

I saw this posted at another forum. Once again, I'm glad NOT to be in the NHC's shoes. 

ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE       
                  ADT-Version 8.1.3               
         Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm       

             ----- Current Analysis -----
     Date :  04 AUG 2012    Time :   201500 UTC
      Lat :   14:45:18 N     Lon :   69:53:53 W

     
                CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
                4.1 / 987.6mb/ 67.4kt

     
             Final T#  Adj T#  Raw T#
                4.1     4.2     4.2

Center Temp : -65.8C    Cloud Region Temp : -66.0C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC     
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC 

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
                   Weakening Flag : OFF

[Lightning]

Any chance it might affect Alabama?

[toxictwister00]

Any chance it might affect Alabama?

Not likely. Honestly, it's not even absolutely certain whether or not Ernesto will affect the US period let alone AL right now.

[phw115wvwx]

Any chance it might affect Alabama?

If Ernesto doesn't slow down in forward speed over the next few days, it will plow westward into Mexico and not affect the Gulf Coast.  Watch for a decrease in forward speed as that's the tell-tale sign that it could gain latitude and become a threat to the Gulf Coast.

[Mike M]

Can't believe we're using Ernesto again.. I still remember 2006's Ernesto as if it were yesterday and the effects it brought all the way up here.

[toxictwister00]

Any chance it might affect Alabama?

If Ernesto doesn't slow down in forward speed over the next few days, it will plow westward into Mexico and not affect the Gulf Coast.  Watch for a decrease in forward speed as that's the tell-tale sign that it could gain latitude and become a threat to the Gulf Coast.

That's also why the center can't vertically stack so it can strengthen. This is exactly why I said Ernesto was feeling like the same old song and dance. It seems like only the fish storms know how to get their acts together the past 3 hurricane seasons. The storms that get anywhere near land play a cat and mouse game of the low level circulation outrunning the deep convection. That's what Ernesto has been doing since it got it's name.

Can't believe we're using Ernesto again.. I still remember 2006's Ernesto as if it were yesterday and the effects it brought all the way up here.

Ernesto of the past have been said to be a cursed name, none in the past have lived up to expectations 2012 Ernesto is starting to become status quo to that.

[Mr. Rainman]

Ernesto continues to race westward, and now the NHC forecast does not make this system a hurricane until it reemerges into the far Western Gulf of Mexico. Given the lower forecast intensity, I think my call for a landfall in South Texas is no longer correct - and in fact the United States should see no affects from this system apart from maybe a few extreme outer rain bands across the far southern tip of Texas.

[Localonthe8s]

That's good. Southern Texas could use the rain as they are in a bad drought as with elsewhere.

[toxictwister00]

At the rate this is going, Ernesto will be in Central America tomorrow and if it does I say, "Good Riddance." 

8:00 PM EDT Sun Aug 5
Location: 15.4°N 79.6°W
Moving: W at 20 mph
Min pressure: 1006 mb
Max sustained: 50 mph

[Localonthe8s]

Quick! Where's the Ernesto Loops when you need them?! (if any of you were around in 2007 to remember that gimmick)