TWC Today Forums
Weather Discussion => Hazardous Weather => Hurricane Central => Topic started by: toxictwister00 on August 01, 2012, 04:38:58 PM
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The tropics are alive once again!
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
500 PM AST WED AUG 01 2012
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC EAST OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
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LOCATION...12.2N 49.0W
ABOUT 810 MI...1305 KM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
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CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
BARBADOS...ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES...AND DOMINICA.
THE GOVERNMENT OF ST. LUCIA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
ST. LUCIA.
THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
MARTINIQUE AND GUADELOUPE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARBADOS...ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES...AND DOMINICA
* ST. LUCIA
* MARTINIQUE AND GUADELOUPE
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
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Here's a larger resolution of the image (maybe it's just me, but I can barely see the copy Tavores had posted :wacko:)
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Important to note before anyone gets too excited about the intensity forecast that there is a lot of uncertainty about it - the GFS wants to strengthen it into a hurricane while the European is leaning towards the degeneration of the system. Either one looks probable but given the European's sterling performance with Debby, I'm hesitant to agree with NHC's forecast at the moment. We'll see how future runs do.
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I can't get over how eerily similar the NHC's current forecast cone track reminds me of Hurricane Dean......
I'm also surprised they're going with a hurricane at the end of the cone, even if they are leaning toward the GFS. I wouldn't have forecasted that strong with so much uncertainty.
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Overall, I am not impressed with this system at all. :no: I even wonder if it will survive over the next few days. The entire Atlantic basin has seemingly been in a drought lately, so there is a lot of dry air that this depression will have to overcome in order to become a significant storm.
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Overall, I am not impressed with this system at all. :no: I even wonder if it will survive over the next few days. The entire Atlantic basin has seemingly been in a drought lately, so there is a lot of dry air that this depression will have to overcome in order to become a significant storm.
My sentiments exactly. :yes: We'll see though.
EDIT: We should have Ernesto by the 5pm advisory, I'll update the thread title once it's official. :thumbsup:
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Ernesto Emerges!
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
500 PM AST THU AUG 02 2012
...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO FIFTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE
SEASON...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.8N 56.6W
ABOUT 295 MI...475 KM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH
TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BARBADOS...ST. VINCENT AND THE
GRENADINES...AND DOMINICA.
THE GOVERNMENT OF ST. LUCIA HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH
TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ST. LUCIA.
THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH TO
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR MARTINIQUE AND GUADELOUPE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARBADOS...ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES...AND DOMINICA
* ST. LUCIA
* MARTINIQUE AND GUADELOUPE
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
EDIT: They're forecasting a Hurricane again by the end of the 5 day forecast
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Ernesto Alert.
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I'm rather surprised at this jump in intensity. A plane did record the wind speeds, so I can't argue the result. It still doesn't look great in organization, so I'm not sure what will happen to Ernesto.
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I'm rather surprised at this jump in intensity. A plane did record the wind speeds, so I can't argue the result. It still doesn't look great in organization, so I'm not sure what will happen to Ernesto.
It looks better than 24 hours ago though...I'm still wondering why they're forecasting so strong so far out with so much uncertainty still hanging in the balance past two days out. We still don't know for sure 100% it'll survive all the way through the Caribbean. :no:
EDIT: In the meantime, now that we have Ernesto, I made a landfall probability map.
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I'm rather surprised at this jump in intensity. A plane did record the wind speeds, so I can't argue the result. It still doesn't look great in organization, so I'm not sure what will happen to Ernesto.
This is the time of year, though, when the hurricane season typically starts to get more active. With a possible El Nino developing, however, maybe this season won't be that bad. Remember the 2004 and 2005 seasons? I hope we never see hurricane seasons like those two years again.
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Looking pathetic and hungover again this morning. :itsok:
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I know it's way too early to call a landfall point, but I'm gonna estimate it to be somewhere between New Orleans and Houston..........
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GFDL hurricane model is probably the most aggressive model I keep seeing. Going very bonkers on blowing this thing up in the central Gulf with a barometric pressure into the 970s even after going over the western strip of Cuba which makes the quick recovery dubious for me. Gustav (2008) went over the same part of Cuba and never fully recovered back to what it was as a Cat 4. Hurricane.
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The track models will probably have an easier time following this thing once it slows down, and then we may have a slightly better idea where this thing is going. It may hit Southern Texas and give them some really well-needed rain.
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Ernesto's biggest problem is its forward speed. It's going way too fast, which has caused its low-level center to outrun its mid-level center. This sheared profile is not good at all for a tropical storm. Everything needs to be upright instead. If Ernesto slows down and reaches the much warmer water in the western Caribbean, then we may have a chance to see real intensification. For now, we have to see whether it will hold itself together.
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It seems like it's been that same old song and dance with almost EVERY tropical cyclone since the 2009 Hurricane Season and it's getting old very fast.
EDIT: On a side note, Ernesto is starting to look better tonight and is slowing down (18mph instead of 22mph 6 hours ago) eventhough it hasn't strengthened I'm beginning to think a Gulf threat is increasing regardless of what the GFS/ECMWF/Suddenly the CMC have been saying.
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Ernesto has continued to organize and strengthen overnight with winds of 60mph. The National Hurricane Center is forecasting a Hurricane by tomorrow morning.
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As of 2pm ET, Ernesto is still holding steady as a 50mph tropical storm with a pressure of 1004mb
From the link below, looking at the water vapor, notice how Ernesto has been able to ventilate (create it's own healthy environment) and virtually push the dry air that's in it's path out of it's way. That's probably one reason why the dry air hasn't disrupted it's circulation entirely.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-wv.html (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-wv.html)
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Ernesto has suddenly become much more interesting forecast wise. As Tavores noted, Ernesto has been successfully ventilating - in fact, NHC noted this in their latest discussion, as this kind of organization is not very common for tropical systems in the Carribean.
GFS and European continue to want to weaken the system, but I have to agree with NHC in saying that I don't see anything getting in the way of Ernesto becoming a hurricane within the next day or so - shear is light and ocean temperatures are way up there.
Winds are 60 mph as of the 5 PM advisory. Latest forecast track is an extension of the previous and agrees with the model consensus.
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Ernesto has suddenly become much more interesting forecast wise. As Tavores noted, Ernesto has been successfully ventilating - in fact, NHC noted this in their latest discussion, as this kind of organization is not very common for tropical systems in the Carribean.
GFS and European continue to want to weaken the system, but I have to agree with NHC in saying that I don't see anything getting in the way of Ernesto becoming a hurricane within the next day or so - shear is light and ocean temperatures are way up there.
Winds are 60 mph as of the 5 PM advisory. Latest forecast track is an extension of the previous and agrees with the model consensus.
I've seen a large swath of SSTs as high as 30c across the western Caribbean into the Central Gulf, that's toasty. There are probably some isolated areas higher than that.
I saw this posted at another forum. Once again, I'm glad NOT to be in the NHC's shoes. :P
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 04 AUG 2012 Time : 201500 UTC
Lat : 14:45:18 N Lon : 69:53:53 W
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.1 / 987.6mb/ 67.4kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.1 4.2 4.2
Center Temp : -65.8C Cloud Region Temp : -66.0C
Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION
Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION
Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC
Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
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Any chance it might affect Alabama?
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Any chance it might affect Alabama?
Not likely. Honestly, it's not even absolutely certain whether or not Ernesto will affect the US period let alone AL right now.
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Any chance it might affect Alabama?
If Ernesto doesn't slow down in forward speed over the next few days, it will plow westward into Mexico and not affect the Gulf Coast. Watch for a decrease in forward speed as that's the tell-tale sign that it could gain latitude and become a threat to the Gulf Coast.
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Can't believe we're using Ernesto again.. I still remember 2006's Ernesto as if it were yesterday and the effects it brought all the way up here.
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Any chance it might affect Alabama?
If Ernesto doesn't slow down in forward speed over the next few days, it will plow westward into Mexico and not affect the Gulf Coast. Watch for a decrease in forward speed as that's the tell-tale sign that it could gain latitude and become a threat to the Gulf Coast.
That's also why the center can't vertically stack so it can strengthen. This is exactly why I said Ernesto was feeling like the same old song and dance. It seems like only the fish storms know how to get their acts together the past 3 hurricane seasons. The storms that get anywhere near land play a cat and mouse game of the low level circulation outrunning the deep convection. That's what Ernesto has been doing since it got it's name.
Can't believe we're using Ernesto again.. I still remember 2006's Ernesto as if it were yesterday and the effects it brought all the way up here.
Ernesto of the past have been said to be a cursed name, none in the past have lived up to expectations 2012 Ernesto is starting to become status quo to that.
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Ernesto continues to race westward, and now the NHC forecast does not make this system a hurricane until it reemerges into the far Western Gulf of Mexico. Given the lower forecast intensity, I think my call for a landfall in South Texas is no longer correct - and in fact the United States should see no affects from this system apart from maybe a few extreme outer rain bands across the far southern tip of Texas.
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That's good. Southern Texas could use the rain as they are in a bad drought as with elsewhere.
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At the rate this is going, Ernesto will be in Central America tomorrow and if it does I say, "Good Riddance." :wave:
8:00 PM EDT Sun Aug 5
Location: 15.4°N 79.6°W
Moving: W at 20 mph
Min pressure: 1006 mb
Max sustained: 50 mph
(http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT05/refresh/AL0512W5_NL_sm2+gif/235638W5_NL_sm.gif)
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Quick! Where's the Ernesto Loops when you need them?! (if any of you were around in 2007 to remember that gimmick)
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Ernesto is forecasted to only affect the Yucatan Peninsula and Southern Mexico. There will be no threat to the US. Ernesto is NOT forecasted to become a hurricane, which I've been thinking since yesterday. I guess the Ernesto Curse continues....
Ironically, presentation has improved and convection seems to be firing again around the center. Unfortunately, that's too little, too late.
EDIT: Playing more mind games with us now I see, Hurricane Hunters are finding a barometric pressure down around 994mb and flight level winds as high as near 77kts. (NW Quadrant) Might have a hurriane today afterall and I'll probably eat crow for doubting it. :itsok:
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 6th day of the month at 13:44Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 302)
Storm Number & Year: 05L in 2012
Storm Name: Ernesto (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 8
Observation Number: 10
A. Time of Center Fix: 6th day of the month at 13:17:00Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 15°43'N 80°10'W (15.7167N 80.1667W)
B. Center Fix Location: 261 miles (420 km) to the SSE (162°) from George Town, Cayman Islands (GBR).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,381m (4,531ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 40kts (~ 46.0mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 3 nautical miles (3 statute miles) to the SE (137°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 235° at 54kts (From the SW at ~ 62.1mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 3 nautical miles (3 statute miles) to the SE (137°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 994mb (29.35 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,538m (5,046ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,400m (4,593ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 15°C (59°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Closed Wall
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 8 nautical miles
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 55kts (~ 63.3mph) in the east quadrant at 12:05:30Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 77kts (~ 88.6mph) in the northwest quadrant at 13:19:00Z
Radar Signature: Good
11am Advisory
Winds - 65mph
Pressure - 994mb
Direction - WNW at 9mph
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A hurricane warning is up from Mexico, and a hurricane watch is up for Belize. The new forecast track for Ernesto shows no impact to the United States.
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It could be too premature to say this, but it looks like an eye might be trying to appear soon.
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It just goes to show how difficult it can be to forecast intensity with these things. Landfall intensity went from a strong tropical storm to a strong Category 1. That's impressive.
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This is my first forecast.
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Hurricane Warnings are out from the Yucatan Peninsula southward to the Belize/Guatemala border. Tropical Storm Warnings are also in effect for the Honduras border. I know someone who is currently in Honduras so hopefully they're doing alright.
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Ernesto has not strengthened as expected by NHC. I'm sure they are pulling hairs out right now in Miami.
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It will probably do what it did last night and start flaring up overnight tonight. It seems like it may be slowly trying to do that now. Also the eye (once well established again) I think will be much larger than it was this morning.
EDIT: A ball of convection is starting to fire not far from the center as I had suspected. :yes:
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Ernesto has indeed been flaring up this morning. Pressure is down to 988mb, however wind speeds are still 65mph as of the 8am advisory. I suspect if trends continue to be positive, Ernesto will be a hurricane finally come the 11am advisory. :yes: We'll see, this thing has been a major roller coaster of a headache the past few days.
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No dice on a hurricane.
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Eh, I'm having a hard time believing this thing is not at least a min 75mph hurricane right now. :thinking:
I'm also not sure why I even care anymore, but I think it will still manage to get to 75mph before landfall. Man that forecast I posted yesterday was a major FAIL. :thumbdown:
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Everyone say hello to Hurricane Ernesto :wave:! About time sheesh louise... I think my goatee throughout puberty grew faster than the time it has taken this thing to reach hurricane status. :lol:
2:00 PM EDT Tue Aug 7
Location: 18.5°N 85.5°W
Moving: WNW at 14 mph
Min pressure: 983 mb
Max sustained: 80 mph
EDIT: Ernesto is certainly looking much better and has probably gotten stronger in the past couple of hours. I saw a radar from Belize at another forum and you can tell an eyewall is developing and tightening pretty well so far. My final forecast is Ernesto will be able to top at a strong Category One with winds of 90 mph before making landfall overnight tonight. :yes:
Look to the right under about 19N, 86W
(http://i836.photobucket.com/albums/zz290/Strat747/latest_400kmloop-2.gif)
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Ernesto has downgraded to a tropical storm. Restrengthening to a hurricane is not likely but the NHC has not ruled out the chance yet, as a hurricane watch is still in effect for a small area of Mexico where Ernesto is expected to take a direct hit.
2PM ET/1PM ct Intermediate Advisory:
Location: 18.8N/90.9W
Wind: 45 mph
Moving: W 13 mph
Pressure: 998 mb/29.43 inches
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WS4000 Emu Chetumal, MX Local Forecast 8/8/12 (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NsFMY6OPqGI#)
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Ernesto had greatly deteriorated thanks to the mountains of Mexico, and as of 10AM CDT the storm's circulation has dissipated. However, redevelopment into a tropical storm is possible as the remnant low enters the Eastern Pacific over the next two days.
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Since it's related to Ernesto I figure I would mention it here. Ernesto has been reincarnated into Tropical Storm Hector in the E. Pacific.
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I've always wondered how that worked, when an Atlantic storm crossed into Pacific Boundaries. Does anyone know the last time that this happened?