Hurricane Ernesto

[toxictwister00]

The tropics are alive once again!

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052012
500 PM AST WED AUG 01 2012

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC EAST OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.2N 49.0W
ABOUT 810 MI...1305 KM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
BARBADOS...ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES...AND DOMINICA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF ST. LUCIA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
ST. LUCIA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
MARTINIQUE AND GUADELOUPE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARBADOS...ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES...AND DOMINICA
* ST. LUCIA
* MARTINIQUE AND GUADELOUPE

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

[Zach]

Here's a larger resolution of the image (maybe it's just me, but I can barely see the copy Tavores had posted )

[Mr. Rainman]

Important to note before anyone gets too excited about the intensity forecast that there is a lot of uncertainty about it - the GFS wants to strengthen it into a hurricane while the European is leaning towards the degeneration of the system. Either one looks probable but given the European's sterling performance with Debby, I'm hesitant to agree with NHC's forecast at the moment. We'll see how future runs do.

[toxictwister00]

I can't get over how eerily similar the NHC's current forecast cone track reminds me of Hurricane Dean......
I'm also surprised they're going with a hurricane at the end of the cone, even if they are leaning toward the GFS. I wouldn't have forecasted that strong with so much uncertainty.

[phw115wvwx]

Overall, I am not impressed with this system at all.   I even wonder if it will survive over the next few days.  The entire Atlantic basin has seemingly been in a drought lately, so there is a lot of dry air that this depression will have to overcome in order to become a significant storm.

[toxictwister00]

Overall, I am not impressed with this system at all.   I even wonder if it will survive over the next few days.  The entire Atlantic basin has seemingly been in a drought lately, so there is a lot of dry air that this depression will have to overcome in order to become a significant storm.

My sentiments exactly.  We'll see though.

EDIT: We should have Ernesto by the 5pm advisory, I'll update the thread title once it's official. 

[toxictwister00]

Ernesto Emerges!

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052012
500 PM AST THU AUG 02 2012

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO FIFTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE
SEASON...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.8N 56.6W
ABOUT 295 MI...475 KM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH
TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BARBADOS...ST. VINCENT AND THE
GRENADINES...AND DOMINICA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF ST. LUCIA HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH
TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ST. LUCIA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH TO
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR MARTINIQUE AND GUADELOUPE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARBADOS...ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES...AND DOMINICA
* ST. LUCIA
* MARTINIQUE AND GUADELOUPE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

EDIT: They're forecasting a Hurricane again by the end of the 5 day forecast

[Localonthe8s]

Ernesto Alert.

[phw115wvwx]

I'm rather surprised at this jump in intensity.  A plane did record the wind speeds, so I can't argue the result.  It still doesn't look great in organization, so I'm not sure what will happen to Ernesto.

[toxictwister00]

I'm rather surprised at this jump in intensity.  A plane did record the wind speeds, so I can't argue the result.  It still doesn't look great in organization, so I'm not sure what will happen to Ernesto.

It looks better than 24 hours ago though...I'm still wondering why they're forecasting so strong so far out with so much uncertainty still hanging in the balance past two days out. We still don't know for sure 100% it'll survive all the way through the Caribbean.

EDIT: In the meantime, now that we have Ernesto, I made a landfall probability map.

[Lightning]

I'm rather surprised at this jump in intensity.  A plane did record the wind speeds, so I can't argue the result.  It still doesn't look great in organization, so I'm not sure what will happen to Ernesto.

This is the time of year, though, when the hurricane season typically starts to get more active. With a possible El Nino developing, however, maybe this season won't be that bad. Remember the 2004 and 2005 seasons? I hope we never see hurricane seasons like those two years again.

[toxictwister00]

Looking pathetic and hungover again this morning.

[twcctornado77]

I know it's way too early to call a landfall point, but I'm gonna estimate it to be somewhere between New Orleans and Houston..........

[toxictwister00]

GFDL hurricane model is probably the most aggressive model I keep seeing. Going very bonkers on blowing this thing up in the central Gulf with a barometric pressure into the 970s even after going over the western strip of Cuba which makes the quick recovery dubious for me. Gustav (2008) went over the same part of Cuba and never fully recovered back to what it was as a Cat 4. Hurricane.

[Mr. Rainman]

The track models will probably have an easier time following this thing once it slows down, and then we may have a slightly better idea where this thing is going. It may hit Southern Texas and give them some really well-needed rain.