Tropical Storm Lee

[toxictwister00]

TORNADO WATCH #826 in effect for SE LA/S. MS. & AL/W. FL Panhandle

[Austin M.]

TOMORROW: I will be going into the field to do live coverage on Ustream at or a little after 7am. I will post the link before I head out here and be sure to monitor my Twitter for the second I go live. I see a great day tomorrow and Monday.

[Mr. Rainman]

Looking at satellite, Lee is looking less and less like a tropical storm and more like a fairly mature mid-latitude cyclone. We'll have to wait to see what NHC says, and I'm no expert on tropical systems, but I have a feeling Lee will be classified as extra-tropical within the next 24 hours. Anyone else have thoughts on this, or am I just plain wrong? 

[Austin M.]

Looking at satellite, Lee is looking less and less like a tropical storm and more like a fairly mature mid-latitude cyclone. We'll have to wait to see what NHC says, and I'm no expert on tropical systems, but I have a feeling Lee will be classified as extra-tropical within the next 24 hours. Anyone else have thoughts on this, or am I just plain wrong? 

Actually, according to the latest update, the pressure is dropping and wind speeds are picking up a bit... not to mention also that the storm is stationary over the Gulf of Mexico. It's strengthening, and as many are saying, the storm could briefly become a hurricane.

Also, if you'll look, Lee also has another possible low pressure area within the outer bands of the storm.
http://icons-ak.wxug.com/data/images/blogs/atl_ir4_sat_tropicalindex_0.gif?2011931725

[Mr. Rainman]

Austin's right with the pressure dropping, and winds have stayed steady from the last update. I'm not expecting further strengthening over the short term, primary because it looks like the center of circulation is just about to come ashore. It just looks like a mid-latitude cyclone because of the dry air it is sucking in.  Looks like further weakening is the name of the game from here on out. Not to mention excessive rainfall totals.

EDIT: Doppler estimates 8.75 inches of rain have fallen in downtown New Orleans so far. A closer radar located at the airport, I think, puts rain estimates exactly 5 inches higher.

[toxictwister00]

Austin's right with the pressure dropping, and winds have stayed steady from the last update. I'm not expecting further strengthening over the short term, primary because it looks like the center of circulation is just about to come ashore. It just looks like a mid-latitude cyclone because of the dry air it is sucking in.  Looks like further weakening is the name of the game from here on out. Not to mention excessive rainfall totals.

EDIT: Doppler estimates 8.75 inches of rain have fallen in downtown New Orleans so far. A closer radar located at the airport, I think, puts rain estimates exactly 5 inches higher.

Not if the 18z NAM has it's way...Sends Lee south and blows him up into a hurricane. 

[Mr. Rainman]

Lee has weakened, with winds of 50 mph. Pressure has fallen slightly, to 988 mb.

[Pop Light Brown]

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
710 PM CDT SAT SEP 03 2011

...CUMULATIVE RAINFALL TOTALS AS OF 7AM CDT THIS MORNING...
...UPDATED ASOS SITES TO INCLUDE 12 ADDITIONAL HOURS OF RAIN...

RAINFALL TOTALS ARE GIVEN IN INCHES. TOTALS BEGIN AT 7AM THURSDAY
MORNING AND END AT 7AM THIS MORNING UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED.
INCOMPLETE DATA IS NOTATED WITH AN (I) BEHIND THE OBSERVATION.

OFFICIAL NWS OBSERVATIONS
AUTOMATED OBSERVATIONS/CO-OP SITES

PASCAGOULA          9.59 THROUGH 7PM
N.O. AUDUBON        9.58 THROUGH 7PM
N.O. CAROLLTON      8.82
GALLIANO            8.80
N.O. LAKEFRONT      7.87 THROUGH 7PM
SLIDELL CITY        7.77
N.O. ARMSTRONG      7.63 THROUGH 7PM
BOOTHVILLE          7.19 THROUGH 7PM
GULFPORT            6.78 THROUGH 7PM
BILOXI              6.78 THROUGH 7PM
3S TERRYTOWN        6.74
4SW DONALDSONVILLE  6.13
BATON ROUGE         5.95 THROUGH 7PM
B.R. SHERWOOD       5.85
SLIDELL AIRPORT     5.62 THROUGH 7PM
KILLIAN             5.50
GONZALES            5.47
BAYOU MANCHAC       5.30 (I)
DENHAM SPRINGS      4.90 (I)
BAYOU SORREL LOCK   4.76
B.R. CONCORD        4.08
MANDEVILLE          4.08
4SE PONCHATOULA     3.96
OCEAN SPRINGS       3.74
2S CONVENT          3.32
LIVINGSTON          3.25
2N PLAQUEMINE       3.03
ABITA RIVER         3.10
MCCOMB              2.15 THROUGH 7PM
SUN                 2.11
GRAND ISLE          1.20 (I)

UNOFFICIAL OBSERVATIONS - COCORAHS PUBLIC REPORTS
1.1 NW WAVELAND         9.06 THROUGH 8AM
1.9 E MARRERO           8.71 THROUGH 6AM
0.8 WNW MERAUX          7.61 THROUGH 8AM
0.9 NNW LABADIEVILLE    7.37
0.5 ENE GRAY            8.90 THROUGH 8AM
3.7 NNW HOUMA           6.86
8.9 NNW PASS CHRISTIAN  5.88
2.0 SSW TICKFAW         5.85 THROUGH 8AM
2.2 NE SLIDELL          5.72
0.8 E GONZALES          5.68
VILLAGE ST. GEORGE      5.35
3.5 E BATON ROUGE       5.32
LSU                     5.20
3.7 N GONZALES          5.05
2 NE GULFPORT           4.95 THROUGH 6AM
0.8 SSE LONG BEACH      4.93
0.9 NNW DIAMONDHEAD     4.86
1.3 N LACOMBE           4.53
6.6 N KILN              4.49
0.5 SSE RESERVE         4.41
2.8 S INNISWOLD         4.11 THROUGH 8AM
0.4 NW GRAMERCY         4.22
5.9 SW JAYESS           3.90
1.9 NNE DENHAM SPRINGS  3.76
1.8 SE PASCAGOULA       3.50 THROUGH 11AM
2.2 SSW ABITA           3.41 THROUGH 8AM
3.6 ESE OCEAN SPRINGS   3.27 THROUGH 6AM
11.8 E PONCHATOULA      3.24 THROUGH 8AM
5.9 N CARRIERE          2.99 THROUGH 8AM
5.6 ENE PICAYUNE        2.76
6.4 ESE SAUCIER         2.46
10.2 NE MOSS POINT      2.32 THROUGH 8AM
4.9 N GAUTIER           1.83
WAKEFIELD               1.63 THROUGH 6AM
1.9 SSW GLOSTER         1.19 THROUGH 9AM
PORT VINCENT            0.96 (I)
6.4 ENE LIBERTY         0.75 THROUGH 6AM

[toxictwister00]

On radar, Lee is not impressing me. Dry air seems to be giving it a good beating in the central areas of the storm, but then again on the flipside the rainfall totals in LA have been impressive so maybe the radar is very deceiving. I'm getting nervous about us getting screwed out of the best rainfall potential we've had all summer long.

[Austin M.]

I'm getting pretty mad about this... we still have more on its way, but we have been getting rain since about 11pm last night. Want to know what my gauge is recording? 0.00in of rain. Either my gauge is messed up or we haven't had enough rain to do jack squat. We do have a tornado watch about a county west of us, but by the time the severe part arrives there, we should be under one as well.

This updates, so it will likely be different from this the next time someone views, but the area of rain near the center has circulated back into the Gulf... increased chance of rain? Chance of another cyclone? Dissipation? I know all three may have a chance, but the chance of another cyclone? I'd give it about a 20% chance.

http://icons-ak.wunderground.com/data/images/at201113_sat_anim.gif

[toxictwister00]

Awesome rainband consolidating just to my SW heading my way! This is my first time being affected by a Tropical Storm since TS Claudette in 2009. I'm getting excited about our much needed rainfall and the Fall weather to follow. 

Looks like according to Dr. Forbes and our NWS office in Peachtree City agrees North Georgia will have a chance of seeing severe weather in the form of tornadoes on Monday. Dr. Forbes is giving North and West GA a 5/10 on his TORCON Index. We are also currently under a Flash Flood Watch until Tuesday.

[Mr. Rainman]

I find it sad and disturbing that while much of the Southeast is under a Flood Watch or Flood Warning of some sort, just a short hop west, you run into Texas coated in Red Flag warnings.

[toxictwister00]

I find it sad and disturbing that while much of the Southeast is under a Flood Watch or Flood Warning of some sort, just a short hop west, you run into Texas coated in Red Flag warnings.

If there's any constellation to this, the GFS has been showing two more tropical storms developing in the GOM, one heading in the direction of S. TX and the other heading in the same direction of Lee. The downside is both are long range (7+ days out). Unfortunately, the reality is TX will continue to be shafted as long as that High pressure continues to linger around.

[Austin M.]

I find it sad and disturbing that while much of the Southeast is under a Flood Watch or Flood Warning of some sort, just a short hop west, you run into Texas coated in Red Flag warnings.

If there's any constellation to this, the GFS has been showing two more tropical storms developing in the GOM, one heading in the direction of S. TX and the other heading in the same direction of Lee. The downside is both are long range (7+ days out). Unfortunately, the reality is TX will continue to be shafted as long as that High pressure continues to linger around.

I hope (x475628) that GFS is correct about this. I'd love to get this weather again... a direct hit would be nice this time.

If anything goes for Texas, I would hope it wouldn't be like Don...

THE DON IS DEAD.  THE CYCLONE LITERALLY EVAPORATED OVER TEXAS ABOUT
AS FAST AS I HAVE EVER SEEN WITHOUT MOUNTAINS INVOLVED.  DON HAS NO
CONVECTION...MEAGER RAINFALL...AND ONLY A SLIGHT SIGNATURE IN
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR DATA.  THEREFORE...THIS IS THE LAST
ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM.  DON SHOULD OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH LATER
TODAY AS IT MOVES TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO POSE
A RAINFALL THREAT.

[Mr. Rainman]

Lee is now a depression. Heavy rainfall is still anticipated for much of the Southeast over the next few days.
\
EDIT: Lee is no longer being followed by the National Hurricane Center.