TWC Today Forums
Weather Discussion => Hazardous Weather => Hurricane Central => Topic started by: Austin M. on September 01, 2011, 06:50:24 PM
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TD-13 has formed in the Gulf of Mexico.
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Where did you get this information from? It's not on NHC's website yet. :dunno:
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Our internal server information feed. Check Twitter, most stations are reporting on it.
I checked feeds on Twitter concerning TD-13, as well, and the SKYWARNAL Storm and Hurricane Center broke first on Twitter.
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NHC isn't reporting it. None of the stations that I am looking at are reporting it...
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Don't say I didn't tell you so when the map is updated.
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Austin, even if you're right, we don't know anything about its forecast, intensity, or track yet! I would rather that everyone wait until the only official source, the National Hurricane Center, puts out the first advisory before creating a topic about it.
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I didn't say it wasn't true, I said that the NHC hadn't reported it.
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I think there was a problem like this before, and I was involved in it. Austin, just a friendly reminder that until the National Hurricane Center makes a public announcement saying that Tropical Depression 13 has formed (that means internal feeds and servers don't count), we don't have a tropical depression. The National Hurricane Center is the ONLY weather center that can declare a tropical depression. Not anyone else.
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Guess what?
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?5-daynl#contents (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?5-daynl#contents)
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You're seeming a bit rude about this, Austin. We had no idea, and were just going by what the NHC said. You don't have to have an attitude about it...
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Anyway, TS Warning in effect from LA/TX border to MS/AL border. Expected to stay as a storm, and make landfall in south-central LA.
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Right now, the track has TD 13 heading northeast. Although the track is very uncertain at this point, I really wish it would head northwest to Texas. We desparately need the rain! <_<
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Austin, it appears to me that you were trying to brag by being the first to spread the news, which is a dangerous pursuit and the reason why you received the criticism. You should be waiting until the first NHC advisory is issued to show some credibility as a meteorologist before posting online. Then, you can give us far more valuable information than just saying a new depression has formed like the following:
Tropical Depression #13 8:00 PM EDT Advisory
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Location: 26.6°N, 91.4°W (about 225 miles SW of the mouth of the Mississippi River)
Maximum Sustained Winds: 35 mph
Movement: NW at 6 mph
Minimum Central Pressure: 1007 mb
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Right now, the track has TD 13 heading northeast. Although the track is very uncertain at this point, I really wish it would head northwest to Texas. We desparately need the rain! <_<
It screws TX unfortunately, but at least it would still be bringing drought relief to other areas in the South so it's not a total loss or waste of rainfall.
(http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/drmon.gif)
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I have to comment on the projected path once again for this system because, other than the pretty definite path defined over the next 24 hours or so, the rest is just a big circle. I guess this is really going to be a hard storm to forecast.
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There will be hardly any flow aloft to steer this system, which is the big reason why this forecast looks like a big circle on the forecast cone. The slow movement is going to cause huge flooding issues by next week over the Southeast.
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Gov. declares State of Emergency for Louisiana
http://www.wdsu.com/weather/29054910/detail.html (http://www.wdsu.com/weather/29054910/detail.html)
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You're seeming a bit rude about this, Austin. We had no idea, and were just going by what the NHC said. You don't have to have an attitude about it...
I love how everybody, including TWC, was talking about the storm right after it was broken. TWC even put up the L3rd reporting on it during longform.
Austin, it appears to me that you were trying to brag by being the first to spread the news, which is a dangerous pursuit and the reason why you received the criticism. You should be waiting until the first NHC advisory is issued to show some credibility as a meteorologist before posting online. Then, you can give us far more valuable information than just saying a new depression has formed like the following:
Tropical Depression #13 8:00 PM EDT Advisory
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Location: 26.6°N, 91.4°W (about 225 miles SW of the mouth of the Mississippi River)
Maximum Sustained Winds: 35 mph
Movement: NW at 6 mph
Minimum Central Pressure: 1007 mb
This was a one time and first time accomplishment for me. All I knew was that it had formed just as everyone else like the local stations that were reporting on it did. We had no clue about it until the actual advisory. Won't happen again.
Anyways, if I seem to have an attitude problem or I need to do things differently, then please immediately remove me from the forums. I've seen a few worse attitudes here before that I will not bring up...
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This was a one time and first time accomplishment for me. All I knew was that it had formed just as everyone else like the local stations that were reporting on it did. We had no clue about it until the actual advisory. Won't happen again.
What kind of "accomplishment" is this? It was obvious to everyone who paid attention, as suggested by the NHC, that a depression was extremely likely to form. However, it's not official until the NHC releases a statement. Your comments before the fact made it seem like you were eager beyond all belief to "break the news" to us before the official source. And for what? Was it worth this drama?
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This was a one time and first time accomplishment for me. All I knew was that it had formed just as everyone else like the local stations that were reporting on it did. We had no clue about it until the actual advisory. Won't happen again.
What kind of "accomplishment" is this? It was obvious to everyone who paid attention, as suggested by the NHC, that a depression was extremely likely to form. However, it's not official until the NHC releases a statement. Your comments before the fact made it seem like you were eager beyond all belief to "break the news" to us before the official source. And for what? Was it worth this drama?
No, it wasn't worth this drama, but I can tell you something. I was excited to do this for once, I have been excited with everything I do related to weather, but guess what? That was crushed. :thumbsup:
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Austin, if you don't mind, could you explain what you mean by "internal server feed?"
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No, it wasn't worth this drama, but I can tell you something. I was excited to do this for once, I have been excited with everything I do related to weather, but guess what? That was crushed. :thumbsup:
There are legitimate excitements, and there are excitements that just confuse the :censored: out of everyone else. This case is a perfect example of the latter.
I don't understand what you wanted to accomplish. Any one of us could have said that there was going to be a depression in the Gulf of Mexico, but we know that that call goes to the National Hurricane Center, not to us. It could have even been a very educated assumption, researched with all the experience in the world and all the tools of the trade, but it's still not anyone's call but the NHC's. People can certainly make the argument that the NHC made a mistake, and they even review each season after it's finished to catch and correct any mistakes that they themselves made. (That's how Andrew in 1992 got upgraded to a category 5 hurricane.)
But to say that there's a tropical cyclone before the NHC makes that statement is jumping the gun, and needlessly so. If you want to be the one to officially make such a call, then you should do what you need to do to work at the NHC. If you do so, however, it's necessary to keep in mind that making a call prematurely, just for the sake of making that call, would be terribly inappropriate.
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No, it wasn't worth this drama, but I can tell you something. I was excited to do this for once, I have been excited with everything I do related to weather, but guess what? That was crushed. :thumbsup:
Austin, there are a lot of little rules you'll learn about how to handle weather information. This is one of them. You won't believe how many that I have to follow as part of the NWS, and I could get into legal trouble if I don't follow them. I have to make sure that any information I post here to you all is fair and official information, so even I cannot claim if a tropical depression has formed until NHC says so! Anyone in the private sector also has to be careful as there have been lawsuits when companies try to push out information that turns out to be false or inconsistent with official sources. So, I'm sorry if my reaction was rather harsh, but I hope you realize that I'm actually trying to teach you how to avoid these consequences in the future.
Anyway, this statement from NHC in their 11 PM EDT advisory about this depression is really disturbing to me:
RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES.
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For starters, you don't need to wait for the NHC to make an announcement. That announcement comes from the Hurricane Hunters. All the NHC does for we, the people, is give us a glorified press release.
I'm sure skywarnal and the local stations get the same weather info the NHC gets from the Hurricane Hunters. Many local meteorologists report directly what the HHs observe..and there's nothing that says you can't do that. So if the HHs say a depression has formed, many stations say so and wait on the NHC to give future tracks and forecasts. It certainly happens in my neck of the woods.
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For starters, you don't need to wait for the NHC to make an announcement. That announcement comes from the Hurricane Hunters. All the NHC does for we, the people, is give us a glorified press release.
Even though people can hear from the hurricane hunters, it creates mass confusion when the only official voice hasn't claimed that information to be true yet. NHC has the right to question anything obtained from the hurricane hunters. I can get into big trouble if I claim something is true that NHC has not released as official information. When I hear NHC's conference call at work about an hour before the advisory time, I'm not supposed to reveal what was said to the public until NHC does so themselves. Yeah, there are a ton of rules I have to follow to make sure no one receives "special treatment" compared to anyone else. The confusion and drama you saw here are precisely why these rules are in effect.
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Anyway, this statement from NHC in their 11 PM EDT advisory about this depression is really disturbing to me:
RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES.
That's not a drought-buster... that's catastrophic. And we all know what can happen when New Orleans gets just a little too much water. :(
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For starters, you don't need to wait for the NHC to make an announcement. That announcement comes from the Hurricane Hunters. All the NHC does for we, the people, is give us a glorified press release.
I'm sure skywarnal and the local stations get the same weather info the NHC gets from the Hurricane Hunters. Many local meteorologists report directly what the HHs observe..and there's nothing that says you can't do that. So if the HHs say a depression has formed, many stations say so and wait on the NHC to give future tracks and forecasts. It certainly happens in my neck of the woods.
Not quite. The Hurricane Hunters make their observations and report back to the NHS. They don't, however, have the power or the authority to make a unilateral declaration. Legally, only the National Hurricane Center has the right to make the final determination and announcement based on the data returned from the Hurricane Hunters, and from other observations, too.
Media and others may report data directly from the Hurricane Hunters, but they can not say that a depression (or anything else) exists until the National Hurricane Center says so. They can certainly speculate, but they can not actually overrule the NHS without basically saying that the only internationally-approved meteorological organization to monitor and forecast tropical cyclones in the northern Atlantic is wrong, and I, a meteorologist at WXYZ, am a better authority.
Any meteorologist who would do so would be taking a major risk, both professionally and legally.
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Yeah, there are a ton of rules I have to follow to make sure no one receives "special treatment" compared to anyone else. The confusion and drama you saw here are precisely why these rules are in effect.
Very well said. :clap: Those rules are in effect for a reason, and I'm glad they're there. Imagine the chaos that would exist otherwise. In fact, without these rules, there wouldn't be any reason to have the NHC as the one sole authorized voice for tropical cyclones in the northern Atlantic and northeastern Pacific.
If anyone could make their own assumptions, classifications, and statements, I can't imagine the disorder that would result.
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Actually, I have to say that it appears that The Weather Channel jumped the gun regarding T.D. 13, too.
I noticed that some time before 7:30 pm EDT, a red banner appeared talking about the tropical depression forming, yet the National Hurricane Center had not yet released any information to the public about it on their website, and TWC even didn't post any coordinates or other data about the depression until the 8:00 advisory came out. The on-screen maps still labeled the system as a "tropical wave," but the red banner said "tropical depression #13 had formed" for over half an hour before the first advisory from the NHC came out.
Talk about not setting a good example... :club:
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Actually, I have to say that it appears that The Weather Channel jumped the gun regarding T.D. 13, too.
I noticed that some time before 7:30 pm EDT, a red banner appeared talking about the tropical depression forming, yet the National Hurricane Center had not yet released any information to the public about it on their website, and TWC even didn't post any coordinates or other data about the depression until the 8:00 advisory came out. The on-screen maps still labeled the system as a "tropical wave," but the red banner said "tropical depression #13 had formed" for over half an hour before the first advisory from the NHC came out.
Talk about not setting a good example... :club:
We live in a society that's too impatient with a media that worries too much about being the first to break a story instead of actually getting the facts right. That's the underlying problem to everything. By the way, Eric, you can put all your replies in one or two posts rather than make several separate posts in a row.
Anyway, we've beaten this subject to death, so let's please get back on topic about TD #13. There are tropical storm warnings issued for the entire Louisiana and Alabama coastlines, so we should be focusing on that aspect right now.
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The setup is different, but this is reminding me of the Great Flood of 2009 in North Georgia. We saw rainfall totals like this then, but I don't think it'll be as severe since it'll be stretched out over time rather than one day.
Forecast Discussion for my CWA
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ALL EMPHASIS ON THE TROPICAL SYSTEM DEVELOPING OUT OVER THE GULF.
WITH TROPICAL MOISTURE INTERACTING WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PROGGD TO SLIP INTO NORTH GEORGIA SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...THEN INTO
CENTRAL GEORGIA MONDAY NIGHT...THEN MEANDER SOMEWHERE ACROSS SOUTH
GEORGIA FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...LOOKING FOR GOOD RAIN CHANCES
FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. EXTENDED PROGS SIMILAR WITH HEAVY RAIN
BEING A REAL POSSIBILITY OVER OUR AREA WITH THIS SYSTEM. GFS MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 INCHES OR BETTER OVER
PORTIONS OF NORTH GEORGIA BY EARLY TUESDAY...THEN ANOTHER INCH OR
TWO POSSIBLE BY DAYS END. WITH THESE AMOUNTS POSSIBLE WILL
CONTINUE ISSUANCE OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL/HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK FOR
NOW...BUT IF LATER RUNS SUPPORT IT...A FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED
BY SUNDAY. STAY TUNED.
http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=FFC&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=FFC&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1)
A Flood Watch, if only I could remember a time we were under one....
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Eric, i'm not an admin, but next time you want to reply to multiple quotes, why don't you just copy and paste the quotes you want to reply to in the text box and address them all in a post rather than making several seperate replies to each post u quote?
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Pretty much all of Alabama, except a little chunk of Northeast, is under the CoU (cone of uncertainty)... rain should extend outward about 50-100mi from the storm, so at least most of Alabama will get rain from this. Florida, maybe.
I know of only one county that has Double-Red Flagged their beaches, and that is Bay County, FL. I'm entirely sure there are others.
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:censored:!! Texas isn't going to be getting anything from this as the track shifts farther east and has more of a definiete NE path. Depending on how far NE it travels, areas that do not need rain whatsoever are going to get rain.
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THREAD TITLE CHANGE
We have Lee ;)
(http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT13/refresh/AL1311W5_NL_sm2+gif/145613W5_NL_sm.gif)
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There are occasions when a United States landfall seems imminent that I'll be thankful that a storm isn't expected to become a hurricane. This is one of those times.
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Up to 45 mph - 5PM Advisory
(http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT13/refresh/AL1311W5_NL_sm2+gif/204713W5_NL_sm.gif)
TWC's current forecast for the SE on Lee
Threat Level
(http://i.imwx.com/images/maps/truvu/map_specnews07_ltst_4namus_enus_600x338.jpg)
Rainfall Forecast (I'm right on the edge of 6-10 inches)
(http://i.imwx.com/images/maps/truvu/map_specnews08_ltst_4namus_enus_600x338.jpg)
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I have good news and bad news for the Southeast. The good news is that your drought will pretty much be over by the end of next week. The bad news is that a good portion of your area will be underwater thanks to 10-20" of rain. :hmm: Start taking precautions now, because there's going to be some devastating flooding ahead with Lee.
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So far, the weather where I am in Lafayette isn't too bad. Lee's still a rather "hybrid" system, so I'm anticipating that it remains on the weaker side and does NOT reach hurricane status.
Except for a little bit of rain and breeze, not so much here right now. I just don't see all that rain falling as far west as I am, but I am a bit concerned for the folks on NOLA because, after living there for many years, it does have many flood-prone areas, and ten to twenty inches of rain in a short span of time will cause some problems.
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These threat level maps from TWC seem very confusing. I don't understand what "threat" they are depicting. To the average viewer it looks like the entire area is just going to get smashed. They should have specific maps for wind, rain, surge, etc.
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I have to agree with you there. Or maybe just more of the areas shaded in red should only be in medium, not high threat.
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I have good news and bad news for the Southeast. The good news is that your drought will pretty much be over by the end of next week. The bad news is that a good portion of your area will be underwater thanks to 10-20" of rain. :hmm: Start taking precautions now, because there's going to be some devastating flooding ahead with Lee.
Except for Texas. :(
And Martin, I agree with you. I don't think areas far inland like Nashville have to deal with storm surge and rip currents
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The threat area inland is mainly over the threat of flooding and tornadoes.
EDIT: I think the rainfall threat of 6-10 should be extended east into North Georgia Mtns./Western NC, rainfall amounts will most likely be enhanced in those areas as it usually is in mountainous elevations.
Btw, Texas is not playing fair w/ other drought stricken states that need Lee's rain by choking it off with that pesky dry air... <_<
If this map were to verify, the part of GA that needs the rain the most is the area that gets screwed backwards out of it (sighs) :itsok:
(http://i243.photobucket.com/albums/ff86/weatherguy_2006/newq.gif)
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Light to moderate rain with gusty winds has been the norm all night in my area...which made for wet and sloppy conditions at tonight's football games (yes, high school football went on as normal...they play in the rain).
Looks like good sleeping weather this weekend.
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Radar estimated totals
(http://radblast-mi.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/radar/WUNIDS_map?station=LIX&brand=wui&num=10&delay=15&type=NTP&frame=0&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&t=1315021815&lat=29.95751953&lon=-90.07685852&label=New+Orleans%2C+LA&showstorms=0&map.x=400&map.y=240¢erx=400¢ery=240&transx=0&transy=0&showlabels=1&severe=0&rainsnow=0&lightning=1&smooth=1)
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TORNADO WATCH #826 in effect for SE LA/S. MS. & AL/W. FL Panhandle
(http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0826_radar.gif)
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TOMORROW: I will be going into the field to do live coverage on Ustream at or a little after 7am. I will post the link before I head out here and be sure to monitor my Twitter for the second I go live. I see a great day tomorrow and Monday.
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Looking at satellite, Lee is looking less and less like a tropical storm and more like a fairly mature mid-latitude cyclone. We'll have to wait to see what NHC says, and I'm no expert on tropical systems, but I have a feeling Lee will be classified as extra-tropical within the next 24 hours. Anyone else have thoughts on this, or am I just plain wrong? :bleh:
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Looking at satellite, Lee is looking less and less like a tropical storm and more like a fairly mature mid-latitude cyclone. We'll have to wait to see what NHC says, and I'm no expert on tropical systems, but I have a feeling Lee will be classified as extra-tropical within the next 24 hours. Anyone else have thoughts on this, or am I just plain wrong? :bleh:
Actually, according to the latest update, the pressure is dropping and wind speeds are picking up a bit... not to mention also that the storm is stationary over the Gulf of Mexico. It's strengthening, and as many are saying, the storm could briefly become a hurricane.
Also, if you'll look, Lee also has another possible low pressure area within the outer bands of the storm.
http://icons-ak.wxug.com/data/images/blogs/atl_ir4_sat_tropicalindex_0.gif?2011931725 (http://icons-ak.wxug.com/data/images/blogs/atl_ir4_sat_tropicalindex_0.gif?2011931725)
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Austin's right with the pressure dropping, and winds have stayed steady from the last update. I'm not expecting further strengthening over the short term, primary because it looks like the center of circulation is just about to come ashore. It just looks like a mid-latitude cyclone because of the dry air it is sucking in. Looks like further weakening is the name of the game from here on out. Not to mention excessive rainfall totals.
EDIT: Doppler estimates 8.75 inches of rain have fallen in downtown New Orleans so far. A closer radar located at the airport, I think, puts rain estimates exactly 5 inches higher.
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Austin's right with the pressure dropping, and winds have stayed steady from the last update. I'm not expecting further strengthening over the short term, primary because it looks like the center of circulation is just about to come ashore. It just looks like a mid-latitude cyclone because of the dry air it is sucking in. Looks like further weakening is the name of the game from here on out. Not to mention excessive rainfall totals.
EDIT: Doppler estimates 8.75 inches of rain have fallen in downtown New Orleans so far. A closer radar located at the airport, I think, puts rain estimates exactly 5 inches higher.
Not if the 18z NAM has it's way...Sends Lee south and blows him up into a hurricane. :blink: :wacko:
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Lee has weakened, with winds of 50 mph. Pressure has fallen slightly, to 988 mb.
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PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
710 PM CDT SAT SEP 03 2011
...CUMULATIVE RAINFALL TOTALS AS OF 7AM CDT THIS MORNING...
...UPDATED ASOS SITES TO INCLUDE 12 ADDITIONAL HOURS OF RAIN...
RAINFALL TOTALS ARE GIVEN IN INCHES. TOTALS BEGIN AT 7AM THURSDAY
MORNING AND END AT 7AM THIS MORNING UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED.
INCOMPLETE DATA IS NOTATED WITH AN (I) BEHIND THE OBSERVATION.
OFFICIAL NWS OBSERVATIONS
AUTOMATED OBSERVATIONS/CO-OP SITES
PASCAGOULA 9.59 THROUGH 7PM
N.O. AUDUBON 9.58 THROUGH 7PM
N.O. CAROLLTON 8.82
GALLIANO 8.80
N.O. LAKEFRONT 7.87 THROUGH 7PM
SLIDELL CITY 7.77
N.O. ARMSTRONG 7.63 THROUGH 7PM
BOOTHVILLE 7.19 THROUGH 7PM
GULFPORT 6.78 THROUGH 7PM
BILOXI 6.78 THROUGH 7PM
3S TERRYTOWN 6.74
4SW DONALDSONVILLE 6.13
BATON ROUGE 5.95 THROUGH 7PM
B.R. SHERWOOD 5.85
SLIDELL AIRPORT 5.62 THROUGH 7PM
KILLIAN 5.50
GONZALES 5.47
BAYOU MANCHAC 5.30 (I)
DENHAM SPRINGS 4.90 (I)
BAYOU SORREL LOCK 4.76
B.R. CONCORD 4.08
MANDEVILLE 4.08
4SE PONCHATOULA 3.96
OCEAN SPRINGS 3.74
2S CONVENT 3.32
LIVINGSTON 3.25
2N PLAQUEMINE 3.03
ABITA RIVER 3.10
MCCOMB 2.15 THROUGH 7PM
SUN 2.11
GRAND ISLE 1.20 (I)
UNOFFICIAL OBSERVATIONS - COCORAHS PUBLIC REPORTS
1.1 NW WAVELAND 9.06 THROUGH 8AM
1.9 E MARRERO 8.71 THROUGH 6AM
0.8 WNW MERAUX 7.61 THROUGH 8AM
0.9 NNW LABADIEVILLE 7.37
0.5 ENE GRAY 8.90 THROUGH 8AM
3.7 NNW HOUMA 6.86
8.9 NNW PASS CHRISTIAN 5.88
2.0 SSW TICKFAW 5.85 THROUGH 8AM
2.2 NE SLIDELL 5.72
0.8 E GONZALES 5.68
VILLAGE ST. GEORGE 5.35
3.5 E BATON ROUGE 5.32
LSU 5.20
3.7 N GONZALES 5.05
2 NE GULFPORT 4.95 THROUGH 6AM
0.8 SSE LONG BEACH 4.93
0.9 NNW DIAMONDHEAD 4.86
1.3 N LACOMBE 4.53
6.6 N KILN 4.49
0.5 SSE RESERVE 4.41
2.8 S INNISWOLD 4.11 THROUGH 8AM
0.4 NW GRAMERCY 4.22
5.9 SW JAYESS 3.90
1.9 NNE DENHAM SPRINGS 3.76
1.8 SE PASCAGOULA 3.50 THROUGH 11AM
2.2 SSW ABITA 3.41 THROUGH 8AM
3.6 ESE OCEAN SPRINGS 3.27 THROUGH 6AM
11.8 E PONCHATOULA 3.24 THROUGH 8AM
5.9 N CARRIERE 2.99 THROUGH 8AM
5.6 ENE PICAYUNE 2.76
6.4 ESE SAUCIER 2.46
10.2 NE MOSS POINT 2.32 THROUGH 8AM
4.9 N GAUTIER 1.83
WAKEFIELD 1.63 THROUGH 6AM
1.9 SSW GLOSTER 1.19 THROUGH 9AM
PORT VINCENT 0.96 (I)
6.4 ENE LIBERTY 0.75 THROUGH 6AM
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On radar, Lee is not impressing me. Dry air seems to be giving it a good beating in the central areas of the storm, but then again on the flipside the rainfall totals in LA have been impressive so maybe the radar is very deceiving. I'm getting nervous about us getting screwed out of the best rainfall potential we've had all summer long.
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I'm getting pretty mad about this... we still have more on its way, but we have been getting rain since about 11pm last night. Want to know what my gauge is recording? 0.00in of rain. Either my gauge is messed up or we haven't had enough rain to do jack squat. We do have a tornado watch about a county west of us, but by the time the severe part arrives there, we should be under one as well.
This updates, so it will likely be different from this the next time someone views, but the area of rain near the center has circulated back into the Gulf... increased chance of rain? Chance of another cyclone? Dissipation? I know all three may have a chance, but the chance of another cyclone? I'd give it about a 20% chance.
http://icons-ak.wunderground.com/data/images/at201113_sat_anim.gif (http://icons-ak.wunderground.com/data/images/at201113_sat_anim.gif)
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Awesome rainband consolidating just to my SW heading my way! This is my first time being affected by a Tropical Storm since TS Claudette in 2009. I'm getting excited about our much needed rainfall and the Fall weather to follow. :D
Looks like according to Dr. Forbes and our NWS office in Peachtree City agrees North Georgia will have a chance of seeing severe weather in the form of tornadoes on Monday. Dr. Forbes is giving North and West GA a 5/10 on his TORCON Index. We are also currently under a Flash Flood Watch until Tuesday.
(http://radblast-mi.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/radar/WUNIDS_map?station=FFC&brand=wui&num=10&delay=15&type=N0R&frame=0&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&t=1315148691&lat=33.63742065&lon=-84.43090057&label=Atlanta%2C+GA&showstorms=0&map.x=400&map.y=240¢erx=400¢ery=240&transx=0&transy=0&showlabels=1&severe=0&rainsnow=0&lightning=1&smooth=1)
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I find it sad and disturbing that while much of the Southeast is under a Flood Watch or Flood Warning of some sort, just a short hop west, you run into Texas coated in Red Flag warnings.
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I find it sad and disturbing that while much of the Southeast is under a Flood Watch or Flood Warning of some sort, just a short hop west, you run into Texas coated in Red Flag warnings.
If there's any constellation to this, the GFS has been showing two more tropical storms developing in the GOM, one heading in the direction of S. TX and the other heading in the same direction of Lee. The downside is both are long range (7+ days out). Unfortunately, the reality is TX will continue to be shafted as long as that High pressure continues to linger around.
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I find it sad and disturbing that while much of the Southeast is under a Flood Watch or Flood Warning of some sort, just a short hop west, you run into Texas coated in Red Flag warnings.
If there's any constellation to this, the GFS has been showing two more tropical storms developing in the GOM, one heading in the direction of S. TX and the other heading in the same direction of Lee. The downside is both are long range (7+ days out). Unfortunately, the reality is TX will continue to be shafted as long as that High pressure continues to linger around.
I hope (x475628) that GFS is correct about this. I'd love to get this weather again... a direct hit would be nice this time.
If anything goes for Texas, I would hope it wouldn't be like Don...
THE DON IS DEAD. THE CYCLONE LITERALLY EVAPORATED OVER TEXAS ABOUT
AS FAST AS I HAVE EVER SEEN WITHOUT MOUNTAINS INVOLVED. DON HAS NO
CONVECTION...MEAGER RAINFALL...AND ONLY A SLIGHT SIGNATURE IN
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR DATA. THEREFORE...THIS IS THE LAST
ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM. DON SHOULD OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH LATER
TODAY AS IT MOVES TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO POSE
A RAINFALL THREAT.
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Lee is now a depression. Heavy rainfall is still anticipated for much of the Southeast over the next few days.
\
EDIT: Lee is no longer being followed by the National Hurricane Center.
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EDIT: Lee is no longer being followed by the National Hurricane Center.
It will still be followed by the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center at www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/tropical/tropstorms.shtml (http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/tropical/tropstorms.shtml) for as long as it remains a discernible system and affects the United States. The HPC numbers their bulletins following the NHS and along the same schedule, so the next advisory will be at 5:00 am EDT.
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This was posted at another forum. It's outdated, but WOW! :o That same band is heading my way soon.
THIS IS A FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY...
...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 615 AM CDT FOR
SOUTHERN YAZOO...HINDS...NORTHWESTERN JASPER...LEAKE...MADISON...
WESTERN NESHOBA...WESTERN NEWTON...RANKIN...SCOTT AND NORTHERN SMITH
COUNTIES...
AT 247 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
DETECT THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG A LINE EXTENDING
FROM FLOWOOD TO 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF PINEY WOODS...OR ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM FLOWOOD TO 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF PINOLA...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH. ESTIMATED RADAR RAINFALL AMOUNTS...ON THE ORDER
OF THREE TO FIVE INCHES...HAVE OCCURRED IN THE PAST HOUR. HOMES HAVE
BEEN REPORTED FLOODED IN THE WINDCHASE SUBDIVISION IN BRANDON BY
LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT. RESCUES ARE IN PROGRESS. ALSO...TWO FEET
OF WATER HAS BEEN REPORTED ACROSS HIGH STREET IN JACKSON BY LOCAL
MEDIA.
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While Lee's center passed very close to my area, the wind never reached the 35-50 mph that was forecasted; I'm not even sure I got a gust of 40. Impacts were pretty mild for me. I was able to watch the LSU game with power and go to mass the next day with no problems whatsoever. The biggest winds I felt were very early this morning when a front came through. The people to the east of me around New Orleans, Gulfport, and Mobile probably have a windier, wetter story to tell.
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I'm part of this one... heck, who isn't?
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0838.html (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0838.html)
(http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0838_radar.gif)
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
MUCH OF ALABAMA
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
SOUTHWEST GEORGIA
EASTERN MISSISSIPPI
COASTAL WATERS
EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 540 AM UNTIL 400
PM CDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 0.5 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 75 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
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Boy, you don't see this often in a tropical system (well extra-tropical now) MODERATE RISK FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES ACROSS E CENTRAL AL & CENTRAL GA. That Tornado Watch in Alabama will either be extended east or a new one will be issued east into GA later on today.
(http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_1300.gif)
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Coffee County, AL just had a tornado warning, went live. While live, I peered out the window to see none other than a tornado on the ground. Who to call? NWS! Guess who didn't believe me?
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That's happened multiple times with me trying to report hail. Even though I am a trained spotter, I am still a 'kid' and they can tell that. You really have to try to deepen/mature your voice. ;) :P
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Updated rainfall totals from Lee:
PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
911 AM CDT MON SEP 5 2011
...CUMULATIVE RAINFALL TOTALS AS OF 7AM CDT MONDAY MORNING...
RAINFALL TOTALS ARE GIVEN IN INCHES. TOTALS BEGIN AT 7AM THURSDAY
MORNING AND END AT 7AM MONDAY MORNING UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED.
INCOMPLETE DATA IS NOTATED WITH AN (I) BEHIND THE OBSERVATION.
OFFICIAL NWS OBSERVATIONS
AUTOMATED OBSERVATIONS/CO-OP SITES
HOLDEN 15.43
N.O. CAROLLTON 14.32
MAUREPAS 13.63
PONCHATOULA 4SE 13.22
CONVENT 2S 13.04
GALLIANO 12.90
LIVINGSTON 12.15
COVINGTON 12.08
BAPTIST 11.98
N.O. AUDUBON 11.75
SLIDELL CITY 11.60
ROBERT 11.50
GULFPORT AIRPORT 11.07
N.O. ARMSTRONG 10.98
PASCAGOULA 10.76
BILOXI 10.63
BAYOU MANCHAC PT 10.05
DENHAM SPRINGS 10.00
ABITA RIVER 9.98
N.O. LAKEFRONT 9.94
TERRYTOWN 3S 9.86 THROUGH SUN
BOOTHVILLE 9.11
BUSH 9.10
KILLIAN 9.10 (I)
MANDEVILLE 9.03
DONALDSONVILLE 4SW 9.01
GONZALES 8.82
BATON ROUGE 8.81
BAYOU SORREL LOCK 8.47
OCEAN SPRINGS 8.24 THROUGH SUN
SLIDELL AIRPORT 8.13
B.R. CONCORD 7.97
BOGALUSA 7.90
B.R. SHERWOOD 7.79 THROUGH SUN
MCCOMB 7.20
SUN 6.93
PLAQUEMINE 2N 6.23
BELLE CHASSE NAS 4.55 (I)
GRAND ISLE 4.30 (I) THROUGH SUN
UNOFFICIAL OBSERVATIONS - COCORAHS PUBLIC REPORTS
WAVELAND 1.1NW 14.11 THROUGH SUN
RESERVE 0.5 SSE 12.66
GRAY 0.5 ENE 12.62
LONG BEACH 0.7S 12.35
PASS CHRISTIAN 5N 12.18
GULFPORT 4.3NNW 11.70
MARRERO 1.9E 11.61 THROUGH SUN
MERAUX 0.8WNW 11.18 THROUGH SUN
KILN 6.6N 10.98
MONTICELLO 3.0ENE 10.91
PONCHATOULA 10.59
LACOMBE 1.4N 10.15
PASS CHRISTIAN 8.9NNW 10.02 THROUGH SUN
DIAMONDHEAD 0.9NNW 9.63
SLIDELL 2.2NE 9.22
CARRIERE 5.6NW 9.12
GAUTIER 4.9N 9.10
ZACHARY 3.5WNW 9.04
BATON ROUGE 2.7SW 8.97
MOSS POINT 10.2NE 8.86
GRAMERCY 0.4NW 8.81
HOUMA 3.7NNW 8.76 THROUGH SUN
LSU 8.45
OCEAN SPRINGS 3.2SE 8.10
DENHAM SPRINGS 1.9NNE 8.09 THROUGH SUN
ABITA SPRINGS 0.8WSW 8.05 THROUGH SUN
VILLAGE ST. GEORGE 7.80 THROUGH SUN
LABADIEVILLE 0.9NNW 7.37 (I)
INNISWOLD 2.8S 7.27
PICAYUNE 5.6ENE 6.81 THROUGH SUN
SHANANDOAH 2.1W 6.57 THROUGH SUN
TICKFAW 2.0SSW 6.19 THROUGH SUN
HAMMOND 4.5SSW 5.70 THROUGH SUN
WAKEFIELD 5.56 THROUGH SUN
JAYESS 5.9SW 5.08 THROUGH SUN
GLOSTER 1.9 SSW 5.14
LIBERTY 1WNW 4.79
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Austin and Trevor, make sure you indicate to the NWS that you are trained spotters and have your parents with you on the phone if it helps. Furthermore, take some pictures to show proof of evidence, and ask if there's any way you can send them to the office via email or some other way. I have to handle verification calls like these often, so showing as much credibility and evidence as possible really helps people like me on the other end.
Flood watches and warnings are up along a big part of the eastern United States today. Stay safe from the flooding, everyone! Feel free to post any reports you witness in this thread, too.
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Trained storm spotters have spotted a tornado near Powder Springs, GA in Cobb Co. just NW of Atlanta.
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About to get interesting for Atlanta...
(http://radblast-mi.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/radar/WUNIDS_map?station=FFC&brand=wui&num=10&delay=15&type=N0R&frame=0&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&t=1315249721&lat=33.63742065&lon=-84.43090057&label=Atlanta%2C+GA&showstorms=10&map.x=400&map.y=240¢erx=400¢ery=240&transx=0&transy=0&showlabels=1&severe=0&rainsnow=0&lightning=1&smooth=1)
EDIT: Tornado Warning in effect for Peachtree City, GA (NWS HQ) as of 3:50pm
3:55 pm Peachtree City NWS are taking cover, Birmingham NWS will issue warnings for the time being.
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Austin and Trevor, make sure you indicate to the NWS that you are trained spotters and have your parents with you on the phone if it helps. Furthermore, take some pictures to show proof of evidence, and ask if there's any way you can send them to the office via email or some other way. I have to handle verification calls like these often, so showing as much credibility and evidence as possible really helps people like me on the other end.
Flood watches and warnings are up along a big part of the eastern United States today. Stay safe from the flooding, everyone! Feel free to post any reports you witness in this thread, too.
I have a video of a rapidly rotating funnel cloud that I called in (I did state my ID No. and such) and they took no action but to just say, "awesome, please do take some pictures of it," then proceeded to thank me for the report and hung up. I never sent them the video because I did not feel I needed to after the event, and at the time I had no internet access. Perhaps I am doing something wrong?
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SKYWARN does use twitter. You could upload your video to youtube, and then make a storm report via Twitter to your office, linking to the video.