Tropical Storm Lee

[phw115wvwx]

There will be hardly any flow aloft to steer this system, which is the big reason why this forecast looks like a big circle on the forecast cone.  The slow movement is going to cause huge flooding issues by next week over the Southeast.

[toxictwister00]

Gov. declares State of Emergency for Louisiana

http://www.wdsu.com/weather/29054910/detail.html

[Austin M.]

You're seeming a bit rude about this, Austin. We had no idea, and were just going by what the NHC said. You don't have to have an attitude about it...

I love how everybody, including TWC, was talking about the storm right after it was broken. TWC even put up the L3rd reporting on it during longform.

Austin, it appears to me that you were trying to brag by being the first to spread the news, which is a dangerous pursuit and the reason why you received the criticism.  You should be waiting until the first NHC advisory is issued to show some credibility as a meteorologist before posting online.  Then, you can give us far more valuable information than just saying a new depression has formed like the following:

Tropical Depression #13 8:00 PM EDT Advisory
----------------------------------------------------------------
Location:  26.6°N, 91.4°W (about 225 miles SW of the mouth of the Mississippi River)
Maximum Sustained Winds:  35 mph
Movement:  NW at 6 mph
Minimum Central Pressure:  1007 mb

This was a one time and first time accomplishment for me. All I knew was that it had formed just as everyone else like the local stations that were reporting on it did. We had no clue about it until the actual advisory. Won't happen again.

Anyways, if I seem to have an attitude problem or I need to do things differently, then please immediately remove me from the forums. I've seen a few worse attitudes here before that I will not bring up...

[Eric]

This was a one time and first time accomplishment for me. All I knew was that it had formed just as everyone else like the local stations that were reporting on it did. We had no clue about it until the actual advisory. Won't happen again.

What kind of "accomplishment" is this?  It was obvious to everyone who paid attention, as suggested by the NHC, that a depression was extremely likely to form.  However, it's not official until the NHC releases a statement.  Your comments before the fact made it seem like you were eager beyond all belief to "break the news" to us before the official source.  And for what?  Was it worth this drama?

[Austin M.]

This was a one time and first time accomplishment for me. All I knew was that it had formed just as everyone else like the local stations that were reporting on it did. We had no clue about it until the actual advisory. Won't happen again.

What kind of "accomplishment" is this?  It was obvious to everyone who paid attention, as suggested by the NHC, that a depression was extremely likely to form.  However, it's not official until the NHC releases a statement.  Your comments before the fact made it seem like you were eager beyond all belief to "break the news" to us before the official source.  And for what?  Was it worth this drama?

No, it wasn't worth this drama, but I can tell you something. I was excited to do this for once, I have been excited with everything I do related to weather, but guess what? That was crushed. 

[Mr. Rainman]

Austin, if you don't mind, could you explain what you mean by "internal server feed?"

[Eric]

No, it wasn't worth this drama, but I can tell you something. I was excited to do this for once, I have been excited with everything I do related to weather, but guess what? That was crushed. 

There are legitimate excitements, and there are excitements that just confuse the out of everyone else.  This case is a perfect example of the latter.

I don't understand what you wanted to accomplish.  Any one of us could have said that there was going to be a depression in the Gulf of Mexico, but we know that that call goes to the National Hurricane Center, not to us.  It could have even been a very educated assumption, researched with all the experience in the world and all the tools of the trade, but it's still not anyone's call but the NHC's.  People can certainly make the argument that the NHC made a mistake, and they even review each season after it's finished to catch and correct any mistakes that they themselves made.  (That's how Andrew in 1992 got upgraded to a category 5 hurricane.)

But to say that there's a tropical cyclone before the NHC makes that statement is jumping the gun, and needlessly so.  If you want to be the one to officially make such a call, then you should do what you need to do to work at the NHC.  If you do so, however, it's necessary to keep in mind that making a call prematurely, just for the sake of making that call, would be terribly inappropriate.

[phw115wvwx]

No, it wasn't worth this drama, but I can tell you something. I was excited to do this for once, I have been excited with everything I do related to weather, but guess what? That was crushed. 

Austin, there are a lot of little rules you'll learn about how to handle weather information.  This is one of them.  You won't believe how many that I have to follow as part of the NWS, and I could get into legal trouble if I don't follow them.  I have to make sure that any information I post here to you all is fair and official information, so even I cannot claim if a tropical depression has formed until NHC says so!  Anyone in the private sector also has to be careful as there have been lawsuits when companies try to push out information that turns out to be false or inconsistent with official sources.  So, I'm sorry if my reaction was rather harsh, but I hope you realize that I'm actually trying to teach you how to avoid these consequences in the future.

Anyway, this statement from NHC in their 11 PM EDT advisory about this depression is really disturbing to me:

RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES.

[Pop Light Brown]

For starters, you don't need to wait for the NHC to make an announcement. That announcement comes from the Hurricane Hunters. All the NHC does for we, the people, is give us a glorified press release.

I'm sure skywarnal and the local stations get the same weather info the NHC gets from the Hurricane Hunters. Many local meteorologists report directly what the HHs observe..and there's nothing that says you can't do that. So if the HHs say a depression has formed, many stations say so and wait on the NHC to give future tracks and forecasts. It certainly happens in my neck of the woods.

[phw115wvwx]

For starters, you don't need to wait for the NHC to make an announcement. That announcement comes from the Hurricane Hunters. All the NHC does for we, the people, is give us a glorified press release.

Even though people can hear from the hurricane hunters, it creates mass confusion when the only official voice hasn't claimed that information to be true yet.  NHC has the right to question anything obtained from the hurricane hunters.  I can get into big trouble if I claim something is true that NHC has not released as official information.  When I hear NHC's conference call at work about an hour before the advisory time, I'm not supposed to reveal what was said to the public until NHC does so themselves.  Yeah, there are a ton of rules I have to follow to make sure no one receives "special treatment" compared to anyone else.  The confusion and drama you saw here are precisely why these rules are in effect.

[Eric]

Anyway, this statement from NHC in their 11 PM EDT advisory about this depression is really disturbing to me:

RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES.

That's not a drought-buster... that's catastrophic.  And we all know what can happen when New Orleans gets just a little too much water. 

[Eric]

For starters, you don't need to wait for the NHC to make an announcement. That announcement comes from the Hurricane Hunters. All the NHC does for we, the people, is give us a glorified press release.

I'm sure skywarnal and the local stations get the same weather info the NHC gets from the Hurricane Hunters. Many local meteorologists report directly what the HHs observe..and there's nothing that says you can't do that. So if the HHs say a depression has formed, many stations say so and wait on the NHC to give future tracks and forecasts. It certainly happens in my neck of the woods.

Not quite.  The Hurricane Hunters make their observations and report back to the NHS.  They don't, however, have the power or the authority to make a unilateral declaration.  Legally, only the National Hurricane Center has the right to make the final determination and announcement based on the data returned from the Hurricane Hunters, and from other observations, too.

Media and others may report data directly from the Hurricane Hunters, but they can not say that a depression (or anything else) exists until the National Hurricane Center says so.  They can certainly speculate, but they can not actually overrule the NHS without basically saying that the only internationally-approved meteorological organization to monitor and forecast tropical cyclones in the northern Atlantic is wrong, and I, a meteorologist at WXYZ, am a better authority.

Any meteorologist who would do so would be taking a major risk, both professionally and legally.

[Eric]

Yeah, there are a ton of rules I have to follow to make sure no one receives "special treatment" compared to anyone else.  The confusion and drama you saw here are precisely why these rules are in effect.

Very well said.    Those rules are in effect for a reason, and I'm glad they're there.  Imagine the chaos that would exist otherwise.  In fact, without these rules, there wouldn't be any reason to have the NHC as the one sole authorized voice for tropical cyclones in the northern Atlantic and northeastern Pacific.

If anyone could make their own assumptions, classifications, and statements, I can't imagine the disorder that would result.

[Eric]

Actually, I have to say that it appears that The Weather Channel jumped the gun regarding T.D. 13, too.

I noticed that some time before 7:30 pm EDT, a red banner appeared talking about the tropical depression forming, yet the National Hurricane Center had not yet released any information to the public about it on their website, and TWC even didn't post any coordinates or other data about the depression until the 8:00 advisory came out.  The on-screen maps still labeled the system as a "tropical wave," but the red banner said "tropical depression #13 had formed" for over half an hour before the first advisory from the NHC came out.

Talk about not setting a good example... 

[phw115wvwx]

Actually, I have to say that it appears that The Weather Channel jumped the gun regarding T.D. 13, too.

I noticed that some time before 7:30 pm EDT, a red banner appeared talking about the tropical depression forming, yet the National Hurricane Center had not yet released any information to the public about it on their website, and TWC even didn't post any coordinates or other data about the depression until the 8:00 advisory came out.  The on-screen maps still labeled the system as a "tropical wave," but the red banner said "tropical depression #13 had formed" for over half an hour before the first advisory from the NHC came out.

Talk about not setting a good example... 

We live in a society that's too impatient with a media that worries too much about being the first to break a story instead of actually getting the facts right.  That's the underlying problem to everything.  By the way, Eric, you can put all your replies in one or two posts rather than make several separate posts in a row.

Anyway, we've beaten this subject to death, so let's please get back on topic about TD #13.  There are tropical storm warnings issued for the entire Louisiana and Alabama coastlines, so we should be focusing on that aspect right now.