Tropical Storm Colin

[toxictwister00]

This season is starting to suck like last year's hurricane season which is good and bad. Good because it means the US is being spared so far from anything too extreme and bad because there's nothing interesting to track w/o it falling apart, being too weak, or being a fish storm. 

[Stephen]

This season is starting to suck like last year's hurricane season which is good and bad. Good because it means the US is being spared so far from anything too extreme and bad because there's nothing interesting to track w/o it falling apart, being too weak, or being a fish storm. 

It's too early to really judge the season as a whole. Things certainly can change before the end of the season.

[Zach]

It can indeed be good and or bad as Stephen said but lets remember that it varies. 2004 was the worst season for me and Alex didnt develop until August

[phw115wvwx]

It only takes one bad storm to turn a tranquil season into a nightmare.  This season may be quiet now, but we have to keep watching for anything later as the peak is still yet to come.

[toxictwister00]

This season is starting to suck like last year's hurricane season which is good and bad. Good because it means the US is being spared so far from anything too extreme and bad because there's nothing interesting to track w/o it falling apart, being too weak, or being a fish storm. 

It's too early to really judge the season as a whole. Things certainly can change before the end of the season.

I know, I'm just saying it's off to about the same pace as last year was. Don't get me wrong, I still think it could be almost as active as 2004 was in the coming weeks. It just bothers me to hear all the hype there was about it being very active the whole season with as many as 23 storms, and how it's gonna be as bad or worse than 2005 when in reality it's been fairly quiet so far....

[phw115wvwx]

I know, I'm just saying it's off to about the same pace as last year was. Don't get me wrong, I still think it could be almost as active as 2004 was in the coming weeks. It just bothers me to hear all the hype there was about it being very active the whole season with as many as 23 storms, and how it's gonna be as bad or worse than 2005 when in reality it's been fairly quiet so far....

There's why I hate hurricane season projections made before the season begins.  They're not accurate, and I feel they shouldn't be issued.  It's almost impossible to tell how a season will be like as there are so many complex variables to consider.

[TWCToday]

Models having a little spike to cane strength by 120 hr and ive noticed the consensus switch back west with each run. Hmmm. At the least it might give me some nice waves on the Outer Banks to ride

[Mike M]

Most models now suggest that it will make a turn to the northeast as Patrick predicted, although a few others show that New England may be affected so I'll still keep a close eye on this...

[toxictwister00]

Quick Question: What would make Colin go further west longer than forecasted right now? Would it have to be stronger or weaker than expected?

[Mike M]

Colin has degenerated into a remnant low, although it still has winds of 40 mph. The 5 day track suggests that it may become tropical again, but it seems unlikely at this point.

[WeatherWitness]

So is it not even a TD anymore?

[phw115wvwx]

So is it not even a TD anymore?

It's not even a tropical cyclone anymore.  It lost its closed surface circulation due to the shear and really fast forward motion I was talking about earlier.  So, it's now just a remnant low, which means that it has opened back up into a regular tropical wave.  Tropical waves are simply troughs of low pressure where the air flows around but not all the way around it in a circle like a tropical cyclone requires.  The remnants of Colin will be monitored for any signs of redevelopment as it approaches the East Coast early next week.  If the remnants can stay together and redevelop back into a tropical cyclone, it would keep its name.

[ruhgster]

70% chance of Colin reforming in the next 48 hours.

THE REMNANT OF TROPICAL STORM COLIN...A LOW PRESSURE AREA...IS
LOCATED ABOUT 475 MILES SOUTH OF BERMUDA AND MOVING NORTHWESTWARD
NEAR 20 MPH.  SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION OF THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED...AND AN AIR
FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS ENROUTE TO DETERMINE
WHETHER IT HAS BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM.
THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  INTERESTS IN BERMUDA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

[WeatherWitness]

Colin has come back to life! Winds at 45 mph as of 5 PM EDT advisory.

[Mike M]

Ugh, another fishstorm it looks like. If anything we'll just have rough surf.