TWC Today Forums
Weather Discussion => Hazardous Weather => Hurricane Central => Topic started by: toxictwister00 on August 01, 2010, 10:32:20 AM
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Could this be our Colin? :dunno: (Code Red 60%)
A NEARLY STATIONARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 850 MILES
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS ACTIVITY HAS BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED THIS MORNING AND CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH. THERE IS A
HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo/gtwo_atl_sub.shtml?area1#contents (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo/gtwo_atl_sub.shtml?area1#contents)
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90L was dropped as an Invest but once another wave merged with its remnants 91L began kicking. I have little doubt that this will indeed become Collin. 80% now
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This invest is up to 90% now. NHC is almost certain they will start issuing advisories soon, but it needs to develop a well-defined center. That's the only thing missing for this system to become a tropical depression.
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I suspect this will a depression no later than 5am tomorrow. I saw an interesting 12z run of the GFS today and what I believe is supposed to be Invest 91L making landfall along the GA/FL coast and stalling over GA for about 36 hrs before it moves into the Carolinas and OTS. I know it's far out and it's gonna change a million times, but that's a scenario I'm gonna keep in the back of my mind because it hits the GA coast that will be the first time that's happened since Hurricane David in 1979!
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Interesting insight! :yes:
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I love this season. Just about every good-looking wave thats been invested has followed similar paths to the 2004 major storms. Based on the models Martin posted and that GFS image looks like its gonna be in the same area as Jeanne before it looped :yes: I will be watching :happy:
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Invest 91L is now Tropical Depression Four.
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Trevor, please keep the storm posts with the appropriate invests.
Yes, TD #4 has formed with winds of 35 mph at 11 AM. It should become a tropical storm later today. We'll have to watch its path as NHC has it splitting the gap between Florida and Bermuda this coming weekend.
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FISH!
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FISH!
:huh:
If you mean it's gonna be a fishstorm, it doesn't look that way. The east coast should keep an eye on this.
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FISH!
There, I got the topic title changed correctly so that TD #4 is shown. :P Yes, it's looking like it may not make landfall anywhere based on the track except for Bermuda. We'll keep an eye on it if something changes. Furthermore, it's going to encounter some shear in a few days, so NHC isn't expecting it to become more than just a tropical storm.
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Actually, judging on the projected path, this might make landfall somewhere along the Mid-Atlantic coast possibly as a weak tropical storm - although this probably wouldn't be until early-mid next week.
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Actually, judging on the projected path, this might make landfall somewhere along the Mid-Atlantic coast possibly as a weak tropical storm - although this probably wouldn't be until early-mid next week.
I've seen a lot of storms with a projected path like this one make the turn northward faster than expected. Right now, the bigger forecast issue is can this system survive the shear ahead if it's still a weak tropical storm.
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Its pathetic at the moment
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Could this be our Colin? :dunno:
That question has been answered, and you were right. TD #4 became Tropical Storm Colin as of 5 AM. Winds are still 40 mph as of 11 AM. It's moving quickly westward at 24 mph, and that really fast forward motion combined with increasing shear over the next few days is really going to impede much development of this storm.
(http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT04/refresh/AL0410W5_NL_sm2+gif/143214W5_NL_sm.gif)
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This season is starting to suck like last year's hurricane season which is good and bad. Good because it means the US is being spared so far from anything too extreme and bad because there's nothing interesting to track w/o it falling apart, being too weak, or being a fish storm. :( :hmm:
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This season is starting to suck like last year's hurricane season which is good and bad. Good because it means the US is being spared so far from anything too extreme and bad because there's nothing interesting to track w/o it falling apart, being too weak, or being a fish storm. :( :hmm:
It's too early to really judge the season as a whole. Things certainly can change before the end of the season. :yes:
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It can indeed be good and or bad as Stephen said but lets remember that it varies. 2004 was the worst season for me and Alex didnt develop until August :no:
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It only takes one bad storm to turn a tranquil season into a nightmare. This season may be quiet now, but we have to keep watching for anything later as the peak is still yet to come.
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This season is starting to suck like last year's hurricane season which is good and bad. Good because it means the US is being spared so far from anything too extreme and bad because there's nothing interesting to track w/o it falling apart, being too weak, or being a fish storm. :( :hmm:
It's too early to really judge the season as a whole. Things certainly can change before the end of the season. :yes:
I know, I'm just saying it's off to about the same pace as last year was. Don't get me wrong, I still think it could be almost as active as 2004 was in the coming weeks. It just bothers me to hear all the hype there was about it being very active the whole season with as many as 23 storms, and how it's gonna be as bad or worse than 2005 when in reality it's been fairly quiet so far....
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I know, I'm just saying it's off to about the same pace as last year was. Don't get me wrong, I still think it could be almost as active as 2004 was in the coming weeks. It just bothers me to hear all the hype there was about it being very active the whole season with as many as 23 storms, and how it's gonna be as bad or worse than 2005 when in reality it's been fairly quiet so far....
There's why I hate hurricane season projections made before the season begins. They're not accurate, and I feel they shouldn't be issued. It's almost impossible to tell how a season will be like as there are so many complex variables to consider.
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Models having a little spike to cane strength by 120 hr and ive noticed the consensus switch back west with each run. Hmmm. At the least it might give me some nice waves on the Outer Banks to ride :)
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Most models now suggest that it will make a turn to the northeast as Patrick predicted, although a few others show that New England may be affected so I'll still keep a close eye on this...
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Quick Question: What would make Colin go further west longer than forecasted right now? Would it have to be stronger or weaker than expected?
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Colin has degenerated into a remnant low, although it still has winds of 40 mph. The 5 day track suggests that it may become tropical again, but it seems unlikely at this point.
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So is it not even a TD anymore? :dunno:
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So is it not even a TD anymore? :dunno:
It's not even a tropical cyclone anymore. It lost its closed surface circulation due to the shear and really fast forward motion I was talking about earlier. So, it's now just a remnant low, which means that it has opened back up into a regular tropical wave. Tropical waves are simply troughs of low pressure where the air flows around but not all the way around it in a circle like a tropical cyclone requires. The remnants of Colin will be monitored for any signs of redevelopment as it approaches the East Coast early next week. If the remnants can stay together and redevelop back into a tropical cyclone, it would keep its name.
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70% chance of Colin reforming in the next 48 hours.
THE REMNANT OF TROPICAL STORM COLIN...A LOW PRESSURE AREA...IS
LOCATED ABOUT 475 MILES SOUTH OF BERMUDA AND MOVING NORTHWESTWARD
NEAR 20 MPH. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION OF THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED...AND AN AIR
FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS ENROUTE TO DETERMINE
WHETHER IT HAS BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM.
THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. INTERESTS IN BERMUDA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
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Colin has come back to life! :thrilled: Winds at 45 mph as of 5 PM EDT advisory.
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Ugh, another fishstorm it looks like. <_< If anything we'll just have rough surf.
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Tropical Storm Colin has intensified to winds of 60 mph as of 11 PM, and a tropical storm warning has just been issued for Bermuda. Colin poses no direct threat to the United States mainland.
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Tropical Storm Colin has intensified to winds of 60 mph as of 11 PM, and a tropical storm warning has just been issued for Bermuda. Colin poses no direct threat to the United States mainland.
Except for some excellent surf perhaps! :)
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Winds have decreased to 50 mph as of 2am. Warnings still out for Bermuda.
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Naked swirl
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Colin only has winds of 45 mph now. Bermuda is going to take a direct hit tomorrow, so those people should be very thankful that it's only a weak tropical storm and not something far more serious.
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Colin is barely a storm now with winds of 40 mph - no significant changes within the next few hours.
Bermuda is in a drought right now, so they'll be looking forward to the rain at least (as long as there's no serious flooding).
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Colin has dissipated as of 5 PM EDT as it has lost its surface circulation again. This time, it's gone for good as it heads towards cooler waters. It was only a tropical depression with 35 mph winds before NHC decided to quit on this storm. Bermuda should be okay despite some heavy rain and gusty winds in the elevated portions of the island, which will subside as the remnants of Colin move away.
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RIP Colin. Poor guy never had a chance
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RIP Colin. Poor guy never had a chance
Kinda just a small fizz and a lot of fizzle out in the Atlantic. :) Still, I'm sure residents of Bermuda are relieved they're getting nothing more than a passing breezy rainstorm.