Tropical Storm Colin

[toxictwister00]

Could this be our Colin?  (Code Red 60%)

A NEARLY STATIONARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 850 MILES
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS ACTIVITY HAS BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED THIS MORNING AND CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH. THERE IS A
HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo/gtwo_atl_sub.shtml?area1#contents

[TWCToday]

90L was dropped as an Invest but once another wave merged with its remnants 91L began kicking. I have little doubt that this will indeed become Collin. 80% now

[phw115wvwx]

This invest is up to 90% now.  NHC is almost certain they will start issuing advisories soon, but it needs to develop a well-defined center.  That's the only thing missing for this system to become a tropical depression.

[toxictwister00]

I suspect this will a depression no later than 5am tomorrow. I saw an interesting 12z run of the GFS today and what I believe is supposed to be Invest 91L making landfall along the GA/FL coast and stalling over GA for about 36 hrs before it moves into the Carolinas and OTS. I know it's far out and it's gonna change a million times, but that's a scenario I'm gonna keep in the back of my mind because it hits the GA coast that will be the first time that's happened since Hurricane David in 1979!

[TWCToday]

Interesting insight!

[Zach]

I love this season. Just about every good-looking wave thats been invested has followed similar paths to the 2004 major storms. Based on the models Martin posted and that GFS image looks like its gonna be in the same area as Jeanne before it looped I will be watching

[Trevor]

Invest 91L is now Tropical Depression Four.

[phw115wvwx]

Trevor, please keep the storm posts with the appropriate invests.

Yes, TD #4 has formed with winds of 35 mph at 11 AM.  It should become a tropical storm later today.  We'll have to watch its path as NHC has it splitting the gap between Florida and Bermuda this coming weekend.

[TWCToday]

FISH!

[Mike M]

FISH!

If you mean it's gonna be a fishstorm, it doesn't look that way. The east coast should keep an eye on this.

[phw115wvwx]

FISH!

There, I got the topic title changed correctly so that TD #4 is shown.   Yes, it's looking like it may not make landfall anywhere based on the track except for Bermuda.  We'll keep an eye on it if something changes.  Furthermore, it's going to encounter some shear in a few days, so NHC isn't expecting it to become more than just a tropical storm.

[Mike M]

Actually, judging on the projected path, this might make landfall somewhere along the Mid-Atlantic coast possibly as a weak tropical storm - although this probably wouldn't be until early-mid next week.

[phw115wvwx]

Actually, judging on the projected path, this might make landfall somewhere along the Mid-Atlantic coast possibly as a weak tropical storm - although this probably wouldn't be until early-mid next week.

I've seen a lot of storms with a projected path like this one make the turn northward faster than expected.  Right now, the bigger forecast issue is can this system survive the shear ahead if it's still a weak tropical storm.

[TWCToday]

Its pathetic at the moment

[phw115wvwx]

Could this be our Colin? 

That question has been answered, and you were right.  TD #4 became Tropical Storm Colin as of 5 AM.  Winds are still 40 mph as of 11 AM.  It's moving quickly westward at 24 mph, and that really fast forward motion combined with increasing shear over the next few days is really going to impede much development of this storm.