Hurricane Central 2011

[Mr. Rainman]

If by analogs you mean tracks, Wikipedia is the site to go to. They have track maps for every recorded tropical system from the 1851 hurricane season onward. I use it a lot to compare tracks.

Looking at the latest NHC analysis, #3 looks to be Irence and #2 looks to turn into Jose. Assuming Jose forms in the next couple days (which is a bit aggressive), it is worth noting that the "J" storm from last year formed on September 12th.

[toxictwister00]

If by analogs you mean tracks, Wikipedia is the site to go to. They have track maps for every recorded tropical system from the 1851 hurricane season onward. I use it a lot to compare tracks.

Looking at the latest NHC analysis, #3 looks to be Irence and #2 looks to turn into Jose. Assuming Jose forms in the next couple days (which is a bit aggressive), it is worth noting that the "J" storm from last year formed on September 12th.

Yeah, that's what I meant, I'll check there and see then. 6z GFS shifted east also just about where it was on the runs before the 18z run making landfall in the E. GOM in the eastern FL panhandle, moving north through GA then NE. It's also been shifting south of Hispanola avoid a direct hit, but a hit nonetheless so it would still be terrible either way because they'll be in the right front quadrant of the storm. The EURO and Canadian shifted much further east focusing on a SE threat. (EURO ensembles still suggest GOM threat, so were not done with more flip flopping yet... )

I agree with you about who becomes "Irene" and "Jose". Invest 98L looks to be a fish storm and Invest 97L looks like it's developing convection on the northside, but not around the center yet obviously.

Also has anyone ever heard of the GFS model having a history of underdoing pressures on hurricanes? I've heard that on other forums. One member in particular said that when Katrina was still an invest, the GFS only modeled it to drop into the 960's, even all the way up into short range when it was rapidly strengthening in the GOM. He also said it did the same with Rita that year. If that ends up being the case with this were gonna be in serious trouble if it makes landfall in the US (a recurve out to sea is still a small possbility btw)

EDIT: Tracks similar to Hurricane David and Frederic (1979) seems plausible right now. I should also mention I only looked at storms that originated from the Cape Verdes and these two seem to be the only ones close to what the models are showing at the moment.

[toxictwister00]

12z Euro shifted west again agreeing again w/ 12z GFS on Eastern FL/GOM landfall.

EDIT: Throwing in the NOGAPS model for fun.  It's joining the party also it appears.

[Trevor]

New NAM Model Run is rather interesting...

[toxictwister00]

New NAM Model Run is rather interesting...

DR/Haiti and PR looks to be the challenge right now, it'll be  interesting to see how it behaves once it gets there. Will it miss to the north or south? or will it cut right through and what will be left of it once that happens? Most models seem to favor rapid intensification once it reaches the GOM. Seas surface temps certainly won't be a problem, they haven't been touched all summer and some isolated areas are sizzling above 90.

18z GFS gives Florida/Georgia another good hard thumpin'. 3rd run in a row to show this today.

NWS here very briefly mentions Invest 97L

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LATEST MODEL RUN CONTINUE TO SHOW THE WEAK BOUNDARY PUSHING INTO
OUR AREA MONDAY...THEN MEANDERING SOMEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA
INTO MIDWEEK. UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUING...ESPECIALLY WITH A
TROPICAL SYSTEM POSSIBLY IN OUR FUTURE TOWARD THE WEEKEND. STAY
TUNED.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=FFC&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1

18z DGEX

[toxictwister00]

This is kinda offtopic, but is the local news in anyone's area that could possibly be affected by Invest 97L hyping this thing up already? Our ABC affiliate sure is.

[Mr. Rainman]

I've been looking at the 2005 hurricane records. Although things looked pretty pathetic compared to that infamous season a few weeks ago, we are now uncomfortably close to the pace of the 2005 season. It all relies on little Jose, who looks like it may have some development trouble as it encounters some dry air in its path.

Jose, in 2005, formed on August 22nd. That's four days away. Although chances are slim in my opinion, if that occurs, we will have officially tied the 2005 pace for at least one day. Our K storm will have to have formed the next day to match Katrina's formation on the 23rd.

Nothing to get excited about, as a lot can change pattern wise, but it is worth noting. Who knows? We may jump into the Greek Alphabet again this year. O_O

[Eric]

This is kinda offtopic, but is the local news in anyone's area that could possibly be affected by Invest 97L hyping this thing up already? Our ABC affiliate sure is.

Yes.  The Orlando/Daytona Beach TV stations are all keeping a close watch on it, and the new text box on the extended forecast on TWC's local forecasts have Thursday highlighted in red saying that the tropics are being watched.

[Eric]

I've been looking at the 2005 hurricane records. Although things looked pretty pathetic compared to that infamous season a few weeks ago, we are now uncomfortably close to the pace of the 2005 season. It all relies on little Jose, who looks like it may have some development trouble as it encounters some dry air in its path.

Jose, in 2005, formed on August 22nd. That's four days away. Although chances are slim in my opinion, if that occurs, we will have officially tied the 2005 pace for at least one day. Our K storm will have to have formed the next day to match Katrina's formation on the 23rd.

Nothing to get excited about, as a lot can change pattern wise, but it is worth noting. Who knows? We may jump into the Greek Alphabet again this year. O_O

I don't think it's going to happen, and not by a long shot.  Conditions in 2005 were different than they are now, and the development of systems was nothing short of phenomenal, especially after the season ended.  After all, it's apparently only once in half a century when a storm carries over into the next calendar year.

[Mr. Rainman]

Yeah, you've got a point, and I should have kept that in mind. But still, the fact that we're this far into the name list this early in the season (early being used loosely) is worth noting.

[Eric]

Yeah, you've got a point, and I should have kept that in mind. But still, the fact that we're this far into the name list this early in the season (early being used loosely) is worth noting.

Yes, you're absolutely right.  It is rather interesting to note that, in terms of the number of named storms, this year is pretty much performing the same as the remarkable year of 2005.

[toxictwister00]

I've been looking at the 2005 hurricane records. Although things looked pretty pathetic compared to that infamous season a few weeks ago, we are now uncomfortably close to the pace of the 2005 season. It all relies on little Jose, who looks like it may have some development trouble as it encounters some dry air in its path.

Jose, in 2005, formed on August 22nd. That's four days away. Although chances are slim in my opinion, if that occurs, we will have officially tied the 2005 pace for at least one day. Our K storm will have to have formed the next day to match Katrina's formation on the 23rd.

Nothing to get excited about, as a lot can change pattern wise, but it is worth noting. Who knows? We may jump into the Greek Alphabet again this year. O_O

There's an Invest 99L which could be Katia if 98L becomes Jose and Irene 97L. I wish they could have came up with a better replacement for Katrina, it's too close to being the same name as that, the same for Rita whose replacement is "Rina".

Were also one name ahead of the Eastern Pacific currently.

[WeatherWitness]

There's an Invest 99L which could be Katia if 98L becomes Jose and Irene 97L. I wish they could have came up with a better replacement for Katrina, it's too close to being the same name as that, the same for Rita whose replacement is "Rina".

Were also one name ahead of the Eastern Pacific currently.

My thoughts exactly...

Note that Don, Katia, Rina, Sean, and Whitney are all new names for this season as replacements for the hurricanes of the devastating 2005 hurricane season.

OK wow, a couple of these names are way too similar to the devastating storm names they are replacing.

Katia / Katrina

Rina / Rita

[toxictwister00]

Hmm, Invest 97L is getting it's act together quickly despite dry air still being to it's north and west in addition to some moderate shear to the north of it making it clear already this will be a force to be reckoned with. I'm a little skeptical on whether a track over Hispaniola will disrupt it completely. We might manage to get TD 9 today rather than tomorrow or Monday like I was thinking. RECON hurricane hunters will be investigating today at 2pm, hopefully if they find a decent LLC maybe we'll start to get more reliable data in the computer models on a track.

Currently Invest 97L is at 80% chance of development.

[WeatherWitness]

TWC is really hyping this invest and giving a projected path BEFORE it has even become anything (something I don't recall happening before). I'm just wondering if it's going to be much of a threat at all because it's got a lot of land to pass over in the Caribbean before it hits the U.S. I guess rain may be the #1 concern with this storm.